Jets vs. Canadiens series preview

The Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens will meet in the second round for North Division supremacy - as we all expected. Actually, if you read my North Division playoff preview, you might have seen this coming.

Instead of a Connor McDavid vs. Auston Matthews second-round series, we get Connor Hellebuyck vs. Carey Price - a fascinating duel between two of the league's best and hottest goaltenders.

3. Jets (-135) vs. 4. Canadiens (+115)

Overall

JETS STAT CANADIENS
30-23-3 Record 24-21-11
6-3-0 H2H 3-3-3
46.79 (23rd) xGF%* 53.00 (11th)
48.3 (18th) CF%* 54.31 (6th)
44.63 (29th) HDCF%* 51.88 (12th)
8.6 (9th) SH%* 7.52 (25th)
.923 (6th) SV%* .914 (21st)
23.0 (7th) PP% 19.2 (17th)
80.5 (13th) PK% 78.5 (23rd)

*five-on-five

Head-to-head

DATE HOME-AWAY xG* CF%* HDCF* GOALIES
2/25 WPG 6 - MTL 3 1.95 - 1.91 47.84 - 52.16 6 - 11 Hellebuyck - Price
2/27 WPG 2 - MTL 1 OT 1.18 - 2.91 24.34 - 75.66 8 - 12 Hellebuyck - Allen
3/4 MTL 3 - WPG 4 OT 1 - 2.38 52.4 - 47.6 5 - 11  Allen - Hellebuyck
3/6 MTL 7 - WPG 1 2.12 - 2.03 52.43 - 47.57 10 - 8 Price - Hellebuyck
3/15 WPG 2 - MTL 4 2.37 - 2.37 47.82 - 52.18 12 - 10 Hellebuyck - Price
3/17 WPG 4 - MTL 3 OT 1.93 - 2.82 40.71 - 59.29 8 - 14 Hellebuyck - Price
4/8 MTL 2 - WPG 4 1.5 - 1.9 48.8 - 51.2 8 - 9 Allen - Hellebuyck
4/10 MTL 0 - WPG 5 0.98 - 2.03 37.15 - 62.85 6 - 9 Allen - Hellebuyck
5/30 MTL 5 - WPG 3 2.71 - 1.15 65.36 - 34.64 12 - 7 Allen - Hellebuyck

*all strengths

The Canadiens face a quick turnaround after their Game 7 win in Toronto on Monday, with Game 1 scheduled in Winnipeg on Wednesday. As thrilling as their first-round series against the Maple Leafs was, it puts them at something of a disadvantage in the second round.

Wednesday's opener will be especially tricky - it's a prime letdown spot after an emotional and improbable comeback, and the Jets are well rested. But that's only the start. Montreal's going to have a very tough time getting any rest. The Canadiens played seven games in 12 nights against Toronto, and have just one night off before playing Games 1-4 against Winnipeg over a six-day span (including one back-to-back). Meanwhile, the Jets haven't played since May 24, resting and getting some key players - especially Nikolaj Ehlers and Pierre-Luc Dubois - healthy.

Downtime was a decisive factor during the nine regular-season meetings between these teams, as well, with Montreal's compressed schedule resulting in the club being at a rest disadvantage in seven of the nine games (which was reflected in its overall 3-3-3 record). But it's a lot tougher to ramp up the intensity for a third game in four nights on a random weeknight in February than it is when stakes are raised in the playoffs, and the Canadiens hope they'll be buoyed again by having fans back in the Bell Centre stands, as was clearly the case in Game 6 against Toronto.

There's also an argument to be made that being locked in and feeling that playoff intensity every other night is actually beneficial to teams in the postseason, so the long layoff could potentially hurt the Jets. Teams didn't have extended breaks between series in last year's playoffs, but in 2019, three teams won via sweep and had at least nine days off before the next round, and all three of them lost after their lengthy layoff.

Despite the difficult circumstances in the majority of the Canadiens' games against Winnipeg, they got the better of the Jets at five-on-five. The Canadiens held an edge in xGF% and HDCF%, along with a massive advantage in CF% over nine meetings. And there's every reason to expect more of the same in this series.

The Jets allowed 11.47 high-danger chances per 60 minutes in the regular season, by far the worst mark among playoff teams, while generating only 9.25 per 60. That troublesome trend continued against Edmonton. The Oilers were middle of the road in both chance creation and prevention during the regular season - both areas Montreal had success in - and despite being swept by Winnipeg, they led the first round with a whopping 13.84 HDCF/60. The Jets not only allowed a lot of quality chances, they also struggled to generate much, posting a 39.39 HDCF% and 41.29 xGF% - both bottom-two marks in the first round.

Being out-chanced and out-possessed is hardly new to this Winnipeg team; it survives thanks to its high-end attack and elite goalie. The Jets' bounty of capable scorers up front helps them convert a higher rate of their chances, while defensively they lean into their best asset: Hellebuyck. They have an innate ability to withstand pressure and hit teams on the counter - it's why poorer underlying metrics aren't always indicative of their success. What they lack in quantity, they make up for in quality.

It was the formula the Jets used against the Canadiens this season, too. Despite being significantly out-chanced, they shot a terrific 10.16% at five-on-five, and an even more impressive 13.56% in their six wins over Montreal. Hellebuyck posted a .937 SV% in those victories, compared to .868 in the three losses. Despite Hellebuyck's excellence and Winnipeg's quality up front, marks of 13.56% and .937 shout regression. A locked in Price or any slips from Hellebuyck could prove catastrophic for the Jets.

Special teams will also prove crucial for Winnipeg. They were a driving force behind its success in Round 1, while Montreal struggled early against Toronto. The Canadiens were 0-for-14 through five games before breaking through with three power-play goals over the final two. They need to build off that momentum, as another anemic run could cripple their chances. It won't be easy against a Winnipeg team that held the Oilers' top-ranked power play to under 20% in the first round.

Montreal's penalty kill was excellent while its power play struggled. The Canadiens held the Leafs to only three goals on 23 opportunities, though Toronto's power play was miserable for some time in advance of the playoffs. The Jets are much more efficient and productive when up a man, ranking seventh during the regular season, and were a top-five unit in the league before going 2-for-22 without Ehlers over the final nine games of the season. They went 3-for-10 against an Edmonton penalty kill that ranked top 10 in the league this year, while Montreal's finished in the league's bottom half.

If the Habs can maintain respectable numbers on special teams, the series will be there for the taking thanks to their strong five-on-five play. Winnipeg's weak defensive corps was exposed in Round 1 - only the Blues and Capitals allowed more xGF/60 at five-on-five - and is set for an even tougher matchup against a deep Canadiens forward group.

Montreal runs four lines and forechecks aggressively, which will place added pressure on a weak Jets defense and force it into quicker decisions with the puck. That typically leads to turnovers, as we saw with Toronto's Travis Dermott and Rasmus Sandin.

Hellebuyck covered up the Jets' defensive deficiencies in Round 1 by saving a ridiculous 6.82 goals above expected - by far the highest mark of the playoffs despite the fact he's played only four games. His exploits are something the club's become accustomed to, but it leaves Winnipeg with a very small margin for error. Anything but excellence from their netminder and the Jets are in big trouble.

Price faces similar pressure in Montreal, but he doesn't have to be otherworldly in order for the club to be successful. Montreal's team defense is far superior to Winnipeg's - it's a much more sustainable model. The Jets allowed 60 high-danger chances in the first round compared to 59 allowed by the Canadiens, and Montreal played three more games. That's extreme pressure on a goalie, and sooner or later, whether it's in Round 2 or beyond, it'll catch up to Winnipeg eventually.

Pick: Canadiens (+115)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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Your guide to the 2021 NHL Draft Lottery

2021 NHL Draft Lottery
When
: Wednesday, June 2, 7 p.m. ET
How to watch: Sportsnet, NBCSN, NHL Network

It's once again time for the NHL draft lottery.

There are only two draws beginning this year, with the first determining which club will select first overall in the 2021 NHL Draft and the second deciding who will pick second.

The NHL draft will be held virtually over two days, with Round 1 taking place July 23 followed by Rounds 2-7 on July 24.

This year's lottery will also include the expansion Seattle Kraken, who will begin play next season.

Let's take a deeper dive into everything you need to know for Wednesday's draw.

Odds to win No. 1 pick

The Buffalo Sabres have the highest odds at winning the No. 1 pick after finishing the 2020-21 campaign with the league's worst record. Under the NHL's new format, Buffalo can select no lower than third overall.

The Kraken have the third-best odds at winning the lottery; they'll pick no lower than fifth.

Rank Team Odds
1 Buffalo Sabres 16.6%
2 Anaheim Ducks 12.1%
3 Seattle Kraken 10.3%
4 New Jersey Devils 10.3%
5 Columbus Blue Jackets 8.5%
6 Detroit Red Wings 7.6%
7 San Jose Sharks 6.7%
8 Los Angeles Kings 5.8%
9 Vancouver Canucks 5.4%
10 Ottawa Senators 4.5%
11 Arizona Coyotes* 3.1%
12 Chicago Blackhawks 2.7%
13 Calgary Flames 2.2%
14 Philadelphia Flyers 1.8%
15 Dallas Stars 1.4%
16 New York Rangers 1%

*The Coyotes will forfeit their first-round pick for violating the NHL's combine testing policy in 2019-20. A redraw will take place if Arizona wins either of the top two lottery picks.

Projected top picks

Unlike in years past, there isn't a consensus No. 1 pick in 2021. Let's take a look at some of the names slated to go near the top.

Owen Power

Power sits atop many prospect rankings and mock drafts, and he's the likeliest player to go No. 1. The blue-liner, who's performed well at every level he's played in, just wrapped up an impressive season at Michigan and has all of the tools to become an elite NHLer.

Luke Hughes

The younger brother of Jack and Quinn Hughes, Luke is likely to follow in his family's footsteps as a top 10 pick. An unlucky foot injury took him out for the majority of this past season, but he's a rock-solid defenseman who can contribute on both sides of the puck.

Brandt Clarke

Yet another defenseman projected to go near the top, Clarke spent the past season playing in the top Slovakian professional league. Not only did he produce solid numbers overseas, but he also played a key role in helping Canada win gold at the U18 men's hockey championship.

Best of the rest

This year's draft has more question marks than ever before due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many leagues across the world either had abbreviated seasons or didn't play at all.

However, there's still plenty of talent atop this year's draft class. Defenseman Simon Edvinsson and center Matthew Beniers will go near the top, while goaltender Jesper Wallstedt is also expected to be selected in the lottery. Teams may also reach for players like Dylan Guenther, Kent Johnson, and William Eklund.

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Fleury, Grubauer, Vasilevskiy named Vezina Trophy finalists

Marc-Andre Fleury, Philipp Grubauer, and Andrei Vasilevskiy were named the three finalists for the Vezina Trophy, the NHL announced Tuesday.

General managers vote on the award, which is handed out annually to the league's top goaltender.

Fleury finished his season for the Vegas Golden Knights with a .928 save percentage and 1.98 goals against average, and he combined with teammate Robin Lehner to win the William M. Jennings Trophy, which is awarded to the goaltenders who allow the fewest goals during the regular season. The 36-year-old ended the campaign ranked third in wins (26) and shutouts (six) in 36 games, and this is his first time being nominated for the Vezina.

Grubauer helped lead the Colorado Avalanche to their third Presidents' Trophy in franchise history with his superb play this campaign, finishing the regular season ranked second in wins (30), first in shutouts (seven), and second in goals-against average (1.95) alongside a solid .922 save percentage. This is also the first Vezina nomination for the 29-year-old.

A finalist for the fourth straight year, Vasilevskiy turned in yet another outstanding season with the Tampa Bay Lightning. The 26-year-old led the NHL in wins (31) for the fourth straight season, which hasn't been done since Martin Brodeur did it from 2002-03 through 2006-07. Vasilevskiy finished the season with a dazzling .925 save percentage and 2.21 goals-against average.

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Stanley Cup Playoff Power Rankings: How the 2nd-round teams stack up

Now that the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is in the books, it's time to evaluate the eight remaining clubs. Here's how we rank the squads that qualified for Round 2:

8. Montreal Canadiens

Mark Blinch / National Hockey League / Getty

One would be hard-pressed to find any reputable expert who predicted the Canadiens would prevail over the Toronto Maple Leafs in their opening-round series, and Montreal certainly deserves credit for that. But this team was the worst postseason squad entering Round 1, and that distinction remains accurate despite its improbable triumph in seven games.

7. New York Islanders

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

The Islanders' upset win over the East Division champion Pittsburgh Penguins in six games was impressive, but lackluster play from Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry aided them greatly. New York's second-round opponents play a strong defensive game just like the Islanders do, so the East's No. 4 seed must prove it can beat a more balanced club in Round 2.

6. Boston Bruins

Boston Globe / Boston Globe / Getty

The Bruins also made a statement in Round 1 after a somewhat disappointing regular season by their standards. Boston knocked out the higher-seeded Washington Capitals in five games while allowing only two goals per game in the first-round series.

5. Winnipeg Jets

Andy Devlin / National Hockey League / Getty

The Jets earned a lot of respect after sweeping a higher-seeded Edmonton Oilers club led by Connor McDavid, the Hart Trophy favorite, and Leon Draisaitl, who won that award last season. Three of the games went to overtime - including the clincher, which required three extra frames - but Winnipeg overcame its defensive question marks with elite play in goal and strong performances up front.

4. Vegas Golden Knights

Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport / Getty

It took the Golden Knights seven games to eliminate the Minnesota Wild, and Game 1 of Vegas' second-round matchup illustrated this team has its hands full against the No. 1 team on this list. But the Golden Knights remain deep and skilled, having posted as many points in the standings as their second-round foes during the regular season. So don't count them out just yet.

3. Carolina Hurricanes

Gregg Forwerck / National Hockey League / Getty

The Hurricanes proved their Central Division title was no fluke by defeating the Nashville Predators in six games, but now a much tougher test awaits. Carolina's officially the higher seed against the next squad on these rankings due to regular-season play, but the Canes' second-round opponents were missing one superstar for all 56 of those contests and another for the final month.

2. Tampa Bay Lightning

Eliot J. Schechter / National Hockey League / Getty

The Lightning needed six games to eliminate the upstart Florida Panthers, but perennially feared Tampa Bay remains one of the NHL's most dangerous squads. Despite the inferior regular-season record compared to the Hurricanes, this team shouldn't be considered an underdog now that Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos are both dominating again since returning from significant injuries in time for the playoffs.

1. Colorado Avalanche

RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images / Denver Post / Getty

This one is a no-brainer, as the high-octane Avalanche swept the St. Louis Blues with ease despite Ryan O'Reilly boldly predicting the 2018-19 champs would beat Colorado. It wasn't close at all, really - the Avalanche won all four games by three goals or more while scoring at least four goals in each contest and netting five or more in three of them.

This team further proved its mettle with a 7-1 rout over the Golden Knights in Game 1 of their second-round matchup, but they've been the Stanley Cup favorites for a while now, and that remains the case.

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Ranking the best forwards from Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

With the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the books, theScore counts down the top five players of the postseason so far in all three positional groups. Players on eliminated teams are eligible for this list, as these rankings are explicitly based on performances in Round 1.

Forwards | Defensemen | Goalies

5. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

Mark LoMoglio / National Hockey League / Getty
GP P xGF% ATOI
6 8 55.07% 17:27

The Lightning were a force in Round 1 in a hard-fought battle with their in-state rivals, and their captain played a huge role in the victory. Stamkos, who missed the last chunk of the regular season due to injury, came out flying and found the scoresheet in all but one contest while producing three multi-point efforts. The 31-year-old fired 17 shots on goal and looks hungry for another championship after being sidelined for most of Tampa's Stanley Cup run last year.

4. Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty
GP P xGF% ATOI
4 8 61.74% 20:17

Landeskog brought it in every facet of the game in Round 1, which saw the Presidents' Trophy winners sweep the St. Louis Blues. Colorado's 28-year-old captain tallied four goals and four assists - all of them at even strength - and was dominant physically. The Avalanche's top line will be a problem for any playoff opponent.

3. Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers

Eliot J. Schechter / National Hockey League / Getty
GP P xGF% ATOI
6 10 43.49% 19:45

Huberdeau's exploits came in a losing effort, but there's no denying the Panthers' top winger was sensational against the Lightning. The 27-year-old had three multi-point performances and is tied for first among all playoff skaters with eight assists. His underlying metrics weren't great, but Huberdeau made a significant impact on the power play, an area of the game that can often decide a tight series.

2. Nikita Kucherov, Lightning

Mark Blinch / National Hockey League / Getty
GP P xGF% ATOI
6 11 58.29% 19:36

Kucherov sure didn't show any signs of rust after missing the entire regular season. The former Hart Trophy winner was unstoppable in his 2021 debut, torching the Panthers for 11 points, including four in under 15 minutes of ice time to secure an emphatic Game 4 victory. If his goal in Round 1 was to remind the hockey world just how dangerous he is, the 27-year-old most certainly succeeded.

1. Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche

Michael Martin / National Hockey League / Getty
GP P xGF% ATOI
4 9 59.1% 20:48

MacKinnon has proven he lives for this time of year. After running rampant with 25 points in 15 postseason games in the bubble last summer, the Avalanche's 25-year-old dynamo picked up right where he left off, obliterating the Blues with six goals and three assists to lead all skaters with a 2.25 points-per-game clip thus far in the playoffs. When MacKinnon plays with postseason intensity, there's no arguing he's on the shortlist of the best and most dominant players in the world.

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