All posts by Alex Kolodziej

Boston fan will cash in on crazy prop bet if Bruins win Stanley Cup

Betting in the futures market can be a slow burn.

It's difficult enough to correctly pick a winner on any given night. Now, try picking three teams, across three different sports, to win their respective championships, and going on a seven-month roller-coaster ride to see if your passion for a single city can win you a boatload of money.

Chris Brockman, a lover of Boston sports, strapped himself in for that ride when he placed a wild prop bet in October.

"Basically, a buddy and I - both die-hard Boston sports fans - were talking about futures bets before the World Series last year," Brockman told theScore on Tuesday. "So we both went in together and bet Red Sox and Patriots (to win a championship), Red Sox and Celtics, and then a prop of three or more (Boston teams to win a title) for 40-1."

With two-thirds of that prop bet complete, Brockman's attention is now directly on the Boston Bruins, who are up 1-0 in the Stanley Cup Final against the St. Louis Blues.

The first leg of the three-team wager cashed with relative ease shortly after Brockman placed it. The Red Sox were -135 favorites to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series and won in five games.

"We assumed the Red Sox would beat the Dodgers," Brockman admitted. "But even when we made the bet, the Patriots weren't looking like a Super Bowl team."

Indeed, as we've so often seen in recent years, the Patriots - and a 41-year-old Tom Brady - faced increased skepticism. New England was 5-2 when the Red Sox celebrated their championship at Dodger Stadium, but the market soon cooled on the Patriots following three losses over a five-week span, and their Super Bowl odds fell to 10-1.

The Patriots righted the ship with two straightforward victories to close out the regular season and then proceeded to crush the Los Angeles Chargers in the divisional round.

It wasn't until the AFC Championship Game that Brockman really started to sweat, as New England was down 31-24 on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.

"So the guy who I have the bet with, we go back and forth about nearly every Boston game," he said. "So, needless to say, there was lots of cursing and wishing we had hedged before the game since it was such a long shot. But once the game started, we knew how it was ending. We have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Being a spoiled Boston fan is fun."

The two friends were right, as Brady orchestrated a textbook two-minute drill to tie it up. The Patriots then won the coin toss in overtime and marched down the field to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl, which they emerged from victorious by a score of 13-3 against the Los Angeles Rams.

Now, this months-long wager comes down to the Bruins, an outcome Brockman certainly wasn't expecting in October.

"The thing is, I don't even really follow the Bruins," he said. "I'm definitely someone who only pays attention when they're in the playoffs. My buddy and I didn't think they'd be the ones to have a shot in this bet. We were banking on the Celtics getting their stuff together and make a Finals run where we could hedge big with the Warriors."

But as the Bruins mowed down their postseason opponents and other Eastern Conference contenders began to fall, Brockman realized the epic long shot may actually pay off.

"When all the top dogs in the Eastern Conference got upset early on, (Tampa Bay Lightning) especially, and (Washington Capitals), we knew the Bruins had a real shot at winning the Cup and making this insane 40-1 shot a possibility," he said.

"It's insane. Never thought it would be the Bruins who would be the ones to make this happen, but here we are."

Perhaps the most incredible part of it all is that Brockman - an on-air producer for "The Rich Eisen Show" - rarely mixes betting with fandom.

"I'm not one to normally bet on my teams," he said. "It was more of a, 'Hey, these are crazy odds, what if it happened and we didn't bet it?' So we did."

After breaking his habit for those crazy odds, Brockman is just three Bruins wins away from getting off the roller coaster and cashing in on his all-Boston bet.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Stanley Cup Final: Conn Smythe winner tips, bets to consider

The St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins begin the Stanley Cup Final on Monday. Here, we focus on betting tips for who'll win the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the most valuable player throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Before we dive into the odds, here are some things to keep in mind:

- No goalie has won the Conn Smythe since Tim Thomas and Jonathan Quick took the honors back-to-back in 2011 and '12, respectively. Five of the last six recipients have been forwards.

- Only five players have won the Conn Smythe as a member of the losing Stanley Cup Final team.

- Bruins skaters will be shaded a bit shorter due to Boston being favored in the series.

Conn Smythe odds

Player Odds
Tuukka Rask (BOS) 2-3
Jordan Binnington (STL) 13-5
Brad Marchand (BOS) 6-1
Jaden Schwartz (STL) 10-1
David Pastrnak (BOS) 20-1
Patrice Bergeron (BOS) 20-1
Vladimir Tarasenko (STL) 25-1
Alex Pietrangelo (STL) 40-1
David Krejci (BOS) 40-1
Ryan O'Reilly (STL) 80-1
Charlie Coyle (BOS) 100-1
David Perron (STL) 150-1
Oskar Sundqvist (STL) 200-1
Tyler Bozak (STL) 200-1

Goalies favored to buck the trend

Both Rask and Binnington have had memorable postseasons and odds say one of those netminders will end the six-year Conn Smythe goalie drought. Rask boasts a 1.84 goals-against average and .924 save percentage along with two shutouts over 17 postseason games. Meanwhile, Binnington has been excellent in his playoff debut despite being roughed up in his previous series against the San Jose Sharks. Overall, the rookie has posted a .914 save percentage with one shutout.

Forwards to consider

Schwartz is the front-runner for the Blues at 10-1 odds thanks to potting 12 goals so far in the postseason, including a pair of hat-trick performances. However, Tarasenko might be the more intriguing winger on that top St. Louis line. Following a slow start to the playoffs, Tarasenko has recorded a point in each of his previous six outings and has put the second-most pucks on net of any player in the postseason.

Marchand leads Bruins skaters at 6-1 odds thanks to posting 18 points in 17 games. His linemate, Bergeron, only has 13, but has been a consistent point producer in the championship round, registering six goals and nine points in 12 career Stanley Cup Final games.

Long shot to consider

O'Reilly was St. Louis' top point-getter during the regular season, recording 77 along with 28 goals and 49 assists. He's only found the back of the net three times this postseason but the 80-1 number for O'Reilly to win the Conn Smythe is too long not to take a shot on with a player who's currently second on the Blues with 14 playoff points.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Lightning are NHL’s best bounce-back bet

We've been waiting patiently for the Tampa Bay Lightning to lose so we could cover how well they've performed following a loss. It took a while.

The NHL's top team at 58-14-4 went 16 full days and nine games between their two most recent losses. The Lightning are (finally) coming off a 4-3 defeat by the St. Louis Blues on Saturday, setting them up for an angle that deserves your attention when the Bolts meet the Boston Bruins on Monday.

Line: Tampa Bay -150
O/U: 6 (Over -116/Under +106)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

The Lightning have responded well after a loss - only twice this season have they endured back-to-back losses, and one of those involved a 1-0 overtime defeat by the Blues. Before we go into more specifics, here's how Tampa has fared in games after a loss in general:

Opponent Closing Line Result
Blue Jackets TB -170 W 8-2
Blackhawks TB -140 W 6-3
Devils TB -166 W 8-3
Canadiens TB -135 W 4-1
Sabres TB -124 L 2-1
Penguins TB +100 W 4-3
Panthers TB -156 W 7-3
Sabres TB -190 W 5-4
Canucks TB -198 W 5-2
Blue Jackets TB -185 W 4-2
Stars TB -156 W 2-0
Sharks TB -156 W 6-3
Islanders TB -140 W 1-0
Blues TB -180 L 1-0
Penguins TB -179 W 5-4
Senators TB -550 W 5-1
Red Wings TB -450 W 3-2

That's good for 15-2 straight up, while $100 bettors would be up $1,196 after accounting for prices. What's arguably even more fascinating, though, is the response of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy after games in which he's credited with the loss. Since he was in the crease for the most recent loss against the Blues and is expected to be in net for Monday's game, that sets up what's been an unbelievable bounce-back angle. Here's how Vasilevskiy has fared after he takes a loss:

Opponent Closing Line Result
Blue Jackets TB -170 W 8-2
Avalanche TB -125 W 1-0
Canadiens TB -135 W 4-1
Maple Leafs TB -141 W 4-1
Canucks TB -198 W 5-2
Blue Jackets TB -185 W 4-0
Stars TB -156 W 2-0
Sharks TB -156 W 6-3
Islanders TB -145 W 1-0
Blues TB -185 L 1-0
Penguins TB -179 W 5-4
Maple Leafs TB +104 W 6-2

Going 11-1 with a 1.25 goals-against average is pretty decent, as is the fact Lightning opponents went 10-1-1 to the team total in that sample.

Mind you, this is not a lecture about predictive analytics, but merely an observed trend in how the Lightning and their star netminder have performed following a loss this season. But if history wants to repeat itself Monday, expect the Lightning to get back in the win column against the Bruins.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Blackhawks look to keep ‘over’ streak alive vs. Canucks

Four months. One hundred and twenty total days. Fifty games.

That's how long it's been since the Chicago Blackhawks went under the total in back-to-back games.

The league's best "over" team at 47-20-4 this season has been a thorn in the sides of oddsmakers, who had no choice but to start bumping some of the Blackhawks' game totals up to 7 following a stretch in which Chicago went 15-1 to the over starting in January.

Off a 2-0 win against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday - and a comfortable victory for "under" bettors - the Blackhawks are in a position Monday against the Vancouver Canucks to hit consecutive unders for the first time since November 16-18.

Line: Blackhawks -230
Total: 6.5 (Over -135)
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST

Trends are not predictive, but if Monday's game against the Canucks continues the pattern set over the last four months, we'll see a flurry of goals.

Here's what's happened in the games following an under since November's back-to-back:

Opponent Final Score O/U
Anaheim ANA 4-2 Over
Winnipeg WPG 6-3 Over
Dallas CHI 5-2 Over
Florida FLA 6-3 Over
Boston BOS 4-2 Push
Pittsburgh CHI 5-3 Over
Buffalo CHI 7-3 Over
Arizona CHI 7-1 Over

It's not really a surprise that the Blackhawks have been a good over bet this season - they're in the top 10 in the NHL in scoring (3.4 goals per game) and concede at a league-worst rate (3.7). Chicago's "first-period over" surge has also been well-documented, hitting at better than a 70-percent clip this season.

The Blackhawks are looking to go over the total in 10 straight home games and 14 in 15 at the United Center when they host the Canucks.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Western Conference betting preview: Predicting point totals for every team

We're officially one week away from puck drop for the 2018-19 NHL campaign.

To help ring in the new season, we're predicting point totals for every team. Here are the 15 Western Conference clubs.

(All point totals are taken from Bookmaker.eu; be sure to shop around for the best numbers available.)

Anaheim Ducks

Rocky W. Widner/NHL / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Pick: Under 94.5 points

The Ducks were below average in scoring last season, but they made up for that in the crease with John Gibson. And given the team just lost Corey Perry for roughly five months due to knee injuries, Gibson will likely have to carry the load once again.

Perry's injury is another big blow to an offense that's still waiting to get back Ryan Kesler and Patrick Eaves after respective setbacks. Added together, I don't think Gibson can bail out the team for a second straight year.

Arizona Coyotes

Pick: Over 82.5 points

So much for the leap forward.

If fresh blood and Year 2 under new management was a call for improvement, Arizona was disappointing in 2017-18. But, after finishing somewhat strong, there's reason to believe a step forward is right on the doorstep. Seeing as the season finished with 70 points, it'd be tough not to take it.

There are certainly some "ifs" with Arizona, too. If Antti Raanta can perform even close to as well as he did last season, if Clayton Keller and Christian Dvorak can make strides, if the Coyotes can stay healthy - especially on the blue line - then sure, why not? You're not asking for more than a couple lucky bounces and a slight improvement from the 'Yotes.

#TrustInChayka.

Calgary Flames

Pick: Under 94.5 points

Take away the offseason moves and I'd probably be on the opposite side of the fence with the Flames. Whether shipping out Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, and Adam Fox to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm was a knee-jerk reaction or a deal the Flames thought would benefit them long term, I thought Calgary should have stayed put.

The Flames still have the talent to improve on their 84-point total from a season ago, but I don't think they'll be 11 points better.

Chicago Blackhawks

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Pick: Over 85.5 points

It's not easy being a Blackhawks fan - going from watching a dynasty blossom before your eyes to seeing your core get older and all that success blow away in a single year.

Even still, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews pack a scoring punch (albeit while facing age-related declines), Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Sikura are youngsters who can be productive, and Brandon Saad is an offensive factor.

But the defense? Whew. The goaltending? Chicago's going to need Corey Crawford to thrive in the worst way.

Overall, the Blackhawks fell off hard last season. It was the first real nosedive after rattling off three Cup wins in six years, and has many people thinking the team is officially a bottom-feeder in the NHL.

I don't think it's that bad. Not yet, at least.

Colorado Avalanche

Pick: Under 88.5 points

I'm not breaking new ground here by pointing out that the Avalanche, to some degree, will regress in 2018. Expected goals, shot share, and other metrics are calling for a huge downturn for Colorado - to the extent that projecting a team that posted 95 points last season to go under 88.5 isn't exactly "sharp" in this sense.

Dallas Stars

Pick: Over 94.5 points

The entire Stars offense should have been pasted on the back of every milk carton in Dallas last season. After enjoying a lot of past success, the scoring completely dropped off under one-and-done head coach Ken Hitchcock, who's since been replaced by Jim Montgomery.

The style of play last season completely wrung the talent from the Stars' cloth, and I'd be surprised if the drop-off in offensive production continues in 2018-19.

Edmonton Oilers

Codie McLachlan / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Pick: Over 89.5 points

Edmonton was nothing more than a paper tiger last season. After posting 103 points and losing a tough second-round series in 2016-17, the huge expected jump never materialized. Instead, the Oilers fell flat with a 78-point campaign.

Edmonton will likely split those two numbers this season - and given this point total has been driven down in most shops, I'll take the over.

Los Angeles Kings

Pick: Under 91.5 points

Los Angeles is being judged as a so-so team, and it sounds about right. As good as the top six is, the bottom six absolutely isn't. Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin tote the load on the blue line, but the talent level takes a huge dip from there. On the other hand, the Kings won the Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes and still have Jonathan Quick between the pipes, so those are two pluses.

It's a tight number for a team with some volatility. I'll take the under.

Minnesota Wild

Pick: Under 95.5 points

The Wild are essentially the Washington Capitals of the West, to a lesser degree. The annual aspirations might not be as high, but if there was an award given to teams that consistently make the playoffs and lose in the first round, the Wild's trophy case would be full.

Unless Minnesota goes all-in at the trade deadline, I'm not sure how a team that made no significant roster additions can expect to be in the thick of things.

Nashville Predators

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Pick: Over 104.5

Let's make this short and sweet - the Predators are going to clean up in the Central and compete with the Sharks to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final.

St. Louis Blues

Pick: Over 96.5 points

I'll join the masses on the St. Louis hype train. The Blues put up an extremely quiet 94 points last season, and pass the "on paper" test with flying colors after making some offseason additions. If the main concern is goaltending - the Blues are fine elsewhere - I'll pay to find out.

San Jose Sharks

Pick: Over 101.5 points

Erik Karlsson! Erik freakin' Karlsson! The addition of the superstar defenseman has obviously affected the market, but I'm not sure it matters given the competition (or lack thereof) within the division.

Vancouver Canucks

Rich Lam / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Pick: Under 75.5 points

A changing of the guard and a roster flush with youth is expected to turn the Canucks in the right direction. I'll still call for at least one more year of toiling away in the basement of the West before the team starts turning heads.

Vegas Golden Knights

Pick: Under 99.5 points

Remember when the Golden Knights hit their point total by like, October last season? Sheesh, what the franchise did in Year 1 was Team Building 101.

I don't think the Golden Knights are in for a regression that will send them out of the postseason completely, but it's going to be extremely difficult to match the production they got last season from certain players.

I verbally shouted, "Give me the Vegas point total 'under,' whatever the number is next season," once the horn sounded in the Stanley Cup Final. I'm not rescinding my choice.

Winnipeg Jets

Pick: Under 105.5 points

Winnipeg had been scratching the surface of something special, and finally broke through last season with 114 points.

The Jets are still extremely talented, but the difference between them and the other contenders in the West is that Winnipeg's roster makeup is lopsided. Of course, there's so much scoring to go around that it might be enough to overshadow the holes on the left side of the defense.

Or, maybe it won't. I'll sell high on Winnipeg.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

Copyright © 2018 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Eastern Conference betting preview: Predicting point totals for every team

We're officially one week away from puck drop for the 2018-19 NHL campaign.

To help ring in the new season, we're predicting point totals for every team. So, without further ado, here are the 16 Eastern Conference clubs:

(All point totals are taken from Bookmaker.eu; be sure to shop around for the best numbers available.)

Boston Bruins

Pick: Under 101.5 points

After underlying numbers suggested an uptick for the Bruins following a 95-point 2016-17 season, Boston did just that, surging to 110 points and second in the Atlantic behind an elite top line and a dash of youth movement within the bottom-six forward group and the blue line.

This is one of the tighter numbers right out of the gate. With a gun to my head, I'll bet against the Bruins, or in this case, Tuukka Rask, who isn't exactly trending in the right direction.

Buffalo Sabres

Pick: Over 80.5 points

When you finish in the NHL basement, you make changes. The Sabres did just that, bringing in wingers Conor Sheary (trade) and Jeff Skinner (trade) and netminder Carter Hutton (free agency), while shipping out Ryan O'Reilly.

Oh, and that Rasmus Dahlin fella should be a pretty decent building block for a future that also includes 20-somethings Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart.

Contender? Hardly. But I'll gamble on the Sabres' revamp.

Carolina Hurricanes

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Pick: Under 86.5 points

It seems the Hurricanes have been the perennial sleeper among the public for years now, to no avail. They still own the longest playoff drought in the NHL.

They're also another franchise that opted for changes over the summer. The 'Canes shipped out Skinner, Elias Lindholm, and Noah Hanifin, and brought in Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan.

The good news is Scott Darling probably can't get worse between the pipes than he was in his first season with the franchise. Then again, where the scoring will come from is the burning question. The Hurricanes have finished bottom 10 in scoring in each of the past five seasons and are now banking on youngsters like Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen to take bigger leaps with Skinner out the door.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Pick: Over 96.5 points

Columbus will soon have to deal with the situations of star winger Artemi Panarin and two-time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky, who are both eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer. Still, the Jackets are rife with talent up top - with Panarin, Cam Atkinson, and Pierre-Luc Dubois - and have capable goal-scorers on the blue line in Zach Werenski and Seth Jones. The total is ambitious, but I think they'll get there.

Detroit Red Wings

Pick: Over 75.5 points

When Anthony Mantha is your best player in terms of value, you'll struggle to find wins. That's not to discredit Mantha, but to stress just how short on talent Detroit is.

The defense is old. The bottom six is an island of misfit toys. For the Red Wings to at least be fun, they'll need to squeeze out every ounce of scoring from guys like Thomas Vanek and Andreas Athanasiou.

I don't trust the Red Wings to magically spike in the East, but I sure as hell trust this franchise's current position and how it will treat the upcoming season more than, say, the New York Rangers.

Florida Panthers

Joel Auerbach / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Pick: Under 93.5 points

Is Florida the best bad team in the division? Or the worst good team?

The Panthers should be right in the middle of the Atlantic again in 2018-19 - a notch below the Lightning, Bruins, and Maple Leafs, but above the non-contenders.

For the Panthers to succeed again following a 96-point season, you'd be betting on the top-six forward group, which is chock-full of scoring.

What I'm betting against here is the bottom six (yikes) and the expected decline of veteran goaltender Roberto Luongo behind what should be a questionable blue-line corps.

Montreal Canadiens

Pick: Under 80.5 points

I desperately want to find a reason to take this over based on everything the franchise has endured over the last few months. But, I just can't.

The offense would have struggled to score even with Max Pacioretty in the fold. Key players are out due to injury, and that includes Shea Weber, which puts an already suspect defense completely behind the eight ball. We saw last season how tough it was for Carey Price to stop pucks behind a below-average defense, and I wouldn't expect anything different in 2018-19.

New Jersey Devils

Pick: Under 90.5 points

Welcome to the Devils regression train; I'll be your conductor for this long, sad ride back to reality.

This team outperformed its projections last season by a mile thanks to MVP Taylor Hall. That's not to say New Jersey can't surpass this year's projected point total, but I'll take a stab and say the team comes way back down to earth ... or at minimum, under the Vegas total.

New York Islanders

Elsa / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Pick: Over 83.5 points

I still think the Islanders, an underachiever from a year ago, have a shot at nailing this over despite the loss of John Tavares.

There's still some scoring left over. The defense figures to be a middle-of-the-pack group that probably just needs to avoid being horrible. Barry Trotz is now behind the bench, and unless the Islanders start tearing down the walls at midseason, he should be able to get the most out of his roster.

New York Rangers

Pick: Under 75.5 points

Some pundits I respect still peg the Rangers as a team that can jump the low point total despite a talent-poor roster. It's clear which direction New York has chosen to head, and perhaps knowing the playoffs are an afterthought for now will actually help the franchise and new head coach David Quinn.

Or perhaps Henrik Lundqvist is finally on his decline following consecutive subpar seasons, and perhaps the Rangers will roll over with no motivation as a bottom-five team in the league.

Give me the latter, please.

Ottawa Senators

Pick: Under 69.5 points

Yeah, no thanks.

Philadelphia Flyers

Trevor Robb/Twitter

Pick: Under 98.5 points

This team has been mired in mediocrity for a while now, but last season showed a glimmer of hope for the days to come in Philly. The roster contains skilled veterans, bright youth, and the elite defensive pairing of Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov. But goaltending is a major concern, and is the one thing keeping the Flyers from an guaranteed jump in the standings.

Philadelphia still figures to be chasing Pittsburgh and Washington while keeping pace with the Blue Jackets. I'm just not ready to push my chips into the middle of the table.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Pick: Over 102.5 points

The Penguins are so good that they topped the 100-point mark (again) last season despite finishing in the bottom seven of the league in both five-on-five save percentage and shooting percentage. Unless 2018-19 is the year we start seeing wear and tear on Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel, this team is simply tough to bet against.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Pick: Over 107.5 points

You can point to distractions within the front office, the caliber of starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, how the postseason ended last year, expectations, injury concerns, and all that other jazz to explain why Tampa might disappoint in 2018-19

Still, there's too much talent on both offense and defense for me to pick against this team, even though some of the smarter guys out there are pegging the Lightning as a tad overrated.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Claus Andersen / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Pick: Under 105.5 points

The youth movement brought in John Tavares to help solidify the Leafs as a true contender. The rich got a bit richer.

That is, offensively, and at the top.

Once you get past Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Nazem Kadri, that's where the concern lies. Toronto might be built to simply try to score its way to the Cup, but what happens if it can't? There are still obvious weaknesses on this team - depth and essentially half the defense - and I think the number is a bit inflated due to Tavaras' arrival and offseason traction Toronto has gained.

Washington Capitals

Pick: Under 97.5

I like the Capitals, but I don't love them. Then again, that's usually how it goes with this team.

Washington had been so hard to trust in the past. It was a roster built for contention centered around the best goal-scorer in the world that couldn't make the big leap. The difference last season was once the Caps were written off and sold, they mowed through the postseason.

This season, the aging core is a bit older and the head coach (Trotz) is no longer in the fold. The Capitals are now the hunted, and I'd bet against them here post-Stanley Cup.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

Copyright © 2018 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.