All posts by Alex Moretto

NHL Thursday betting preview: Finding value in a busy slate

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We took home some decent profit with Tuesday's picks, finishing 2-1. After a quiet day off Wednesday, we're back at it with another monster NHL slate.

Here are my favorite bets on the board.

Penguins (+110) @ Bruins (-130)

We were on the Bruins in this game Tuesday and got to celebrate an overtime win, but I'm changing my tune this time around. The expectation is the Penguins turn to Casey DeSmith while Boston pivots to Jaroslav Halak, which is a better goaltending matchup for Pittsburgh.

Tuesday's contest was a coin flip. The expected goal share was essentially dead even, sitting at 1.52-1.51 in favor of Pittsburgh at five-on-five and 2.42-2.39 in Boston's favor at all strengths. The Bruins won late in overtime, but the Penguins had a number of chances to win in the extra frame, including a missed three-on-none.

The Penguins have been very good at making adjustments this season when facing the same team for the second consecutive game. We also get a better goaltending matchup and plus money in what essentially boils down to a 50-50 game. There's value with Pittsburgh at +100 or greater.

Pick: Penguins (+110)

Panthers (-105) @ Blue Jackets (-115)

On one hand, the Blue Jackets were unlucky not to win Tuesday's game, with the Panthers scoring the tying goal with three seconds left. On the other hand, they were lucky to even come out with a point. Florida controlled a remarkable 70.08% share of the expected goals (xGF%) at five-on-five.

We've seen this before from the Blue Jackets, who've made a habit of being outplayed in the first contest of a two-game set before bouncing back impressively in the second.

Opponent xGF% (Game 1) xGF% (Game 2)
Predators 46.53% 64.05%
Red Wings 36.95% 53.83%
Lightning 33.33% 56.48%

The Panthers have played well this year, but given the small sample size, this feels like a good sell-high spot. The Blue Jackets have a proven ability to perform better in the second half of back-to-backs, and we get them at a bargain here with what feels like an overreaction to Tuesday's loss.

Pick: Blue Jackets (-115)

Maple Leafs (-130) @ Oilers (+110)

It's been a curious start to the season for the Maple Leafs, who don't quite look like their former selves. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as they've been playing strong defensive hockey, but it has come at the expense of their typically high-end offensive production.

They've been below average at generating offense at five-on-five, relying instead on a power play that's converting at an absurd 41.7% clip - second-best in the NHL. That mark is due for serious regression, and with a downgrade to their special teams, their pedestrian five-on-five play will be amplified.

The Leafs were significantly outplayed at five-on-five by the Oilers in their two meetings in Toronto, controlling just 38% and 41.79% of the expected goal share. It was a similar story in both wins over the Flames. Regression looms for a Toronto team that's managed to steal positive results from negative ratios.

Pick: Oilers (+110)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend betting preview: 4 ‘dogs you should be backing

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We had a really nice start to the week, and then things got even better as we swept our Wednesday and Thursday card. This is officially a heater.

Let's keep the momentum going this weekend.

Rangers (+120) @ Penguins (-140); Jan. 22, 7 p.m. ET

This price is something of a gift with Pittsburgh depleted on the back end and Tristan Jarry confirmed as tonight's starter. The Penguins are without three left-handed defensemen with Mike Matheson, Marcus Pettersson, and Juuso Riikola injured, leaving them in quite a bind early in the season. That's especially concerning given the level of goaltending they've received thus far. Jarry has posted a miserable minus-1.26 GSAA through two starts.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have been a force since their disastrous opening night against the Islanders. In the two games since, the Rangers have owned a 59.7% share of the expected goals at five-on-five and an absurd 66.5% share at all strengths. They only have one win to show from those two games, largely due to MacKenzie Blackwood's heroics.

Don't expect Jarry to steal the show here, as his confidence will be tested early and often behind a patchwork defense, against a Rangers team that's really hitting its stride early on.

Pick: Rangers (+120)

Predators (-120) @ Stars (+100); Jan. 22, 8:30 p.m.

The only sense I can make of this line is oddsmakers are adjusting for it being the Stars' first game of the season. If so, it's an overcorrection. Dallas shouldn't be 'dogs against the Predators on home ice ever, even accounting for the minimal advantage it brings this season. The Stars haven't played yet, but the extra rest will have been welcomed following a deep playoff run while also affording them the luxury of an extra week of training camp.

Maybe I'm a sucker for biting, but the price is too good to pass up. The Predators have been below average at five-on-five through three games, owning just a 46.1% share of expected goals, a bottom-10 mark in the league. The Stars are one of the league's better five-on-five units and a bargain at the current number.

Pick: Stars (+100)

Senators (+140) @ Jets (-160), Jan. 23, 7 p.m.

We're getting a welcome discount on the Senators on Saturday following their 4-1 loss to the Jets in Ottawa on Thursday night. Truthfully, it was just one bad period that killed the Senators in that game, but they were arguably the better team in the first and third, despite trailing 1-0 after 20 minutes. That's five of six periods the Senators have completely outplayed the Jets at five-on-five, yet they have just one point to show for it after blowing a late lead in Wednesday's overtime loss.

Still, if we learned anything over the back-to-back, Ottawa has no issue playing with the Jets. Winnipeg has struggled as a whole this season since a strong opening game against the Flames, suggesting this team is due for regression if its performance doesn't improve.

Add in the fact this is the first game of a back-to-back for the Jets, who are expected to start Laurent Brossoit on Saturday, saving Connor Hellebuyck for Sunday's game against the Oilers, and we're getting a gift of a price here. This is a Senators team due for one against a Jets team they've largely dominated over the last 120 minutes.

Pick: Senators (+140)

Golden Knights (TBD) @ Coyotes (TBD), Jan. 24, 7 p.m.

It's possible I'll be on the Coyotes on Friday and Sunday, but as of now, there's not enough value with Friday's price for me to bite, and I'd rather go against the Knights with Marc-Andre Fleury in net. Vegas has been good about alternating goalies, so the expectation is we see Fleury start Sunday.

The Coyotes have won just once through their first four games, ahead of their weekend doubleheader against the Knights, but the numbers show they've been a bit unlucky. They lost on opening night to the Sharks despite controlling 56.5% of the expected goal share and then managed an almost unheard of 69.1% split in their 5-2 loss to Vegas on Wednesday.

They're playing good hockey, and it's only a matter of time before results start to follow. Arizona is a bet for me on Sunday night, assuming Fleury and Darcy Kuemper get the respective starts in goal and the line sits at +160 or longer.

Pick: Coyotes (+160 or better)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL betting preview: Best bets for Wednesday and Thursday night

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We started the week hot and would like to keep that momentum rolling into the weekend.

The next two days are relatively quiet for the NHL with just 11 games scheduled, but there are still a couple of spots that offer us good value.

Here's what we'll be betting:

Oilers (+135) @ Maple Leafs (-155); Jan. 20, 7 p.m. ET

The Oilers have had a miserable start to the season, and that's opened up a rare value opportunity to back a team that's typically overpriced in the market. I'm not particularly high on Edmonton this season, but this matchup features two similar squads that are being priced very differently based on small sample sizes.

The Oilers never could get things going in a two-game set against a very sound Canadiens team; we saw that coming from a mile away, backing the Habs in both games. Montreal matches up well with Edmonton, consistently ranking among the league's best teams at five-on-five under head coach Claude Julien. The Canadiens have especially excelled at suppressing offense, ranking top 10 in expected goals against in three seasons under Julien. The Maple Leafs have ranked 21st, 27th, and 28th in that category in those three years.

Edmonton also struggled mightily on the power play in two games against Montreal, going a combined 0-for-10. This was the league's best unit a year ago, so we have to give it the benefit of the doubt with a sample size too small to make any definitive judgements. The Maple Leafs play a style far more conducive to success for the Oilers, giving up numerous high-danger chances while getting below-average goaltending.

This line is a bit too high for my liking, and I don't love the idea of backing a struggling Oilers team I've been down on since before the season started. But at this price, I'll place the bet, close my eyes, and hope for the best.

Pick: Oilers (+135)

Wild (-130) @ Ducks (+110); Jan. 20, 9:30 p.m.

John Gibson stole a 1-0 win on Monday when these teams met for the first time this season, giving the Ducks their first victory of the campaign. The Wild owned 67.56% of the expected goal share in that game, posting a 3.69 xGF to Anaheim's 1.77. Gibson pitched a shutout despite that disparity, saving all 11 high-danger shots he faced.

Being thoroughly outplayed has been a common theme for the Ducks early in the season. They've owned just 34.78% of the expected goals share through three games, by far the worst mark in the league; the Jets are second-worst with 40.16%. The Wild, meanwhile, are second-best in that regard with a 58.69% mark, and they top the NHL with a 61.36% rate at five-on-five.

This will be another lopsided game. With the balance of play so distorted, I'd make this bet 10 times out of 10 at this price and hope Gibson doesn't steal the show once again. While that's always a possibility, no bet is without risk,

Pick: Wild (-130)

Flyers (+105) @ Bruins (-125), Jan. 21, 7 p.m.

By now, you've heard all about how the Bruins have yet to score a goal at five-on-five this season. You've probably heard people question whether this team has fallen off a cliff or if it can get back on track without David Pastrnak. All of it works in our favor here, as we get Boston at a small discount - smaller than I would have liked, but still sufficient to lock the Bruins in as a bet.

You can be certain that positive regression is coming for Boston. The Bruins have run into some excellent goaltending early in the campaign, facing MacKenzie Blackwood twice and Semyon Varlamov once. Those two lead the NHL in goals saved above average through the first week of the season, and it isn't particularly close.

Rank Goalie GSAA
1 MacKenzie Blackwood 4.80
2 Semyon Varlamov 4.79
3 Juuse Saros 3.95
4 Brian Elliott 3.16
5 John Gibson 2.92

Simply put, the Bruins have been stonewalled by a pair of hot goalies. They owned 57.71% of the expected goal share at five-on-five in their season opener against the Devils and a 60.61% mark in Monday's 1-0 loss to the Islanders. Boston's fortunes are going to level out real soon.

For the Flyers, however, regression looms large. Philadelphia has enjoyed a 3-1-0 start to the season despite being one of the league's worst teams at five-on-five thus far. The team has been considerably outplayed, owning just 44.42% of the expected goals share. This is a great sell-high moment for Philadelphia and an equally good time to buy low on the Bruins.

Pick: Bruins (-125)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL betting preview: Best bets for Monday and Tuesday night

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The first Monday of the NHL season treats us to a full day of hockey with the slate beginning at noon ET.

The matinee is the first of 18 games scheduled over the next two days, giving us plenty of options in the betting market.

Here's what we'll be playing:

Hurricanes (-115) @ Predators (-105); Jan. 18, 8 p.m. ET

I honestly couldn't bet this fast enough. When I saw the Hurricanes opened at +105, I raced to the window to secure my ticket. Carolina is an elite team being offered at a significant discount because the market has yet to catch up, and Saturday's loss to the Red Wings is only going to prolong that process.

The Hurricanes owned an absurd 64.62% of the expected goal share at five-on-five in their two opening games against Detroit. Now granted, it's the Red Wings, but that's still an outrageous number from a team that's picking up where it left off last season in that regard.

Meanwhile, despite twice beating the Blue Jackets to open the season, the Predators owned just 43.10% of the expected goal share at five-on-five. Only three teams have managed a worse mark to start the campaign: the Red Wings, Ducks, and Kings. I'd bet Carolina all the way up to -125 here.

Pick: Hurricanes (-115)

Canadiens (-110) @ Oilers (-110); Jan. 18, 9 p.m.

We were on the Canadiens on Saturday night and nothing we saw in that game has scared us off from backing them again here at a short price. There was great value in betting Montreal a day early in Saturday's game at +105, with the line climbing as short as -125 by puck drop. This game should follow a similar pattern, so get your Habs bets in early.

The Canadiens came out flying Saturday night, leading 4-0 after a dominant opening 30 minutes. They put it into cruise control after that with the Oilers piling it on in garbage time, and the advanced stats made the game look much closer than it ever was.

The reality is Montreal poured it on with all four lines, keeping Edmonton hemmed in its own end for much of the first 30 minutes. The Oilers are a very flawed team and have no business being evenly priced against a much deeper, and significantly undervalued, Canadiens club.

Pick: Canadiens (-110)

Sabres (+135) @ Flyers (-155), Jan. 19, 7 p.m.

Be sure to pay attention to the Flyers' goaltending situation for this back-to-back. We're currently expecting to see Carter Hart start Monday with Brian Elliott to follow Tuesday. Philadelphia is being priced the same on both nights despite a massive disparity between the pipes.

The move from Hart to Elliott comes with a decrease of 0.40 goals saved above average per 60 minutes and 0.015 save percentage, according to last season's numbers. There will also undoubtedly be an adjustment period for Elliott in his first appearance in an NHL game since August.

Through their first two games, the Sabres own 59.71% of the expected goal share at five-on-five - fourth in the NHL - despite losing both contests to the Capitals. The Flyers, meanwhile, have managed just a 43.57% share - the sixth-worst mark in the league - despite twice beating the Penguins. There's excellent value in backing Buffalo in the second game of this back-to-back.

Pick: Sabres (+135)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL betting preview: Best bets for Wednesday and Thursday night

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Finally, the NHL is back! And like David Puddy at a Devils game, I can hardly contain myself.

The best advice I can give for these opening few days is to exercise caution. Some of these teams haven't played in over 10 months, and there are a lot more variables at play this year than ever before, many of which are impossible to quantify right now.

That being said, there will also be opportunities in these opening days and weeks to pounce on inefficiencies in the market before books adjust, so let's dive into the first couple of nights and see what we like.

Canucks (+110) @ Oilers (-130); Jan. 13, 10 p.m. ET

The Canucks visit the Oilers for a season-opening back-to-back. I'll be on the Oilers on Wednesday if, as assumed, Braden Holtby starts the opener. Holtby was abysmal last season, posting the second-worst GSAA (-16.81) in the league. He also had a high-danger save percentage of just .780.

That doesn't bode well for a Vancouver team that was often bailed out by Jacob Markstrom, who posted an 11.45 GSAA and .838 HDSV% in 2019-20.

Edmonton has its own questions in goal and on the blue line, but this is a squad that can generate offense with the best of them. The Oilers offer good value at a short price with Holtby between the pipes. There in turn could be solid value on the Canucks on Thursday at plus money with Thatcher Demko in net.

Pick: Oilers -130

Bruins (-175) @ Devils (+155); Jan. 14, 7 p.m. ET

I'm expecting big things out of MacKenzie Blackwood this season. Overall, this young, hungry Devils team has a lot to prove, and it should be more competitive in a very tough East Division than many are giving New Jersey credit for. Meanwhile, the Bruins come in without David Pastrnak for the first month of the campaign and a worrisome lack of depth on the blue line.

If this line is anything to go by, it looks like Boston is being overvalued early on. This Bruins team isn't going to be nearly as good as in years past against very strong competition in the East. I'll gladly take a discount on the Devils in their home opener.

Pick: Devils (+155)

Islanders (-110) @ Rangers (-110); Jan.14, 7 p.m. ET

Big things are expected of the Rangers this year. They're going to be a very fun team to watch, but it's also going to take some time for them to truly hit their stride given how little hockey they've played over the last 10 months. They will score a lot, but this is still a club that ranked dead last in 2019-20 in expected goals against and allowed the most high-danger chances in the NHL.

The Rangers' lack of continuity won't be an issue for the Islanders. They're a fundamentally sound team that played deep into the 2020 playoffs. The Isles are well-coached, deep down the middle, and primed for a strong start this season.

Pick: Islanders (-110)

Wild (-115) @ Kings (-105); Jan. 14, 10 p.m. ET

Maybe I'm missing something here, but these odds are way off. A line of -115 implies just a 53.5% chance for the Wild to win this game when in reality it's closer to 58%, or -138. Minnesota is far from a complete team, but the Wild are as deep as ever on the back end and will be much improved offensively.

However, this is more of a bet against the Kings than anything. Los Angeles, in the midst of a rebuild, owns one of the league's worst rosters. The Kings' top six is hard to look at, while Jonathan Quick's best days are well behind him. It's going to be a long season for L.A., but there are much better days ahead for a franchise that's done an excellent job reloading the prospect pool.

Pick: Wild (-115)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

5 fearless betting predictions for the NHL season

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The headline "fearless bets" came to be due to most of these bets' relatively long odds.

I don't believe these are fearless, nor bold, nor outlandish. Rather, they're calculated, meticulous, and precise. They are valuable opportunities to capitalize on an inefficient market.

So without further ado, here are my favorite value bets for the 2021 NHL season, in predictions form, because everyone seems to love those.

The Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup (+2000)

This is the year it all comes together for the Hurricanes. They're stacked with legitimate star power - Sebastian Aho, 23, and Andrei Svechnikov, 20, are only getting better - and are absurdly deep from top to bottom. Carolina was on pace for nearly 100 points in the standings last year despite some key injuries, leading the NHL in Corsi percentage and expected goals for.

The Hurricanes' top-eight point-getters were all 26 years old or younger last season and merely scraping the surface of their potential. It's far from bold to predict further improvement from their young core, a top-three finish in Norris voting for Dougie Hamilton, and above-average goaltending from the Petr Mrazek-James Reimer duo. Under the expert coaching of Rod Brind'Amour, the Hurricanes make the jump from good to great in 2021.

...and the Central Division (+450)

Yeah, I'm all-in on Carolina this year. With Nikita Kucherov missing the regular season, the window of opportunity opens for the Hurricanes. They match up really well with the Lightning from top to bottom, with the difference between the two teams being significantly smaller than this price suggests.

The Canadiens win the North Division (+460)

Another team I'm higher on than the market this year are the Canadiens. Analytical darlings of the NHL, Montreal is a strong puck-possession squad that generates a lot more chances than it allows. Positive results will finally follow this season after an excellent offseason.

Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli bring much-needed scoring up front, Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi break out, and Jonathan Drouin - who started last season with 15 points in 19 games before getting injured - finally puts it all together. Jake Allen - fourth in GSAA/60 last season among goalies with at least 15 appearances - delivers as the backup for Carey Price that this team has long been looking for. Behind the stout goaltending tandem and one of the league's deepest rosters, the Canadiens - who went 10-3-2 against Canadian teams last year - win the North Division.

The Capitals miss the playoffs (+165) for the first time since 2014 ... and the Devils take their place (+400)

I'll go out on a limb and say Corey Crawford retiring wasn't such a bad thing for the Devils. It leaves a void at the backup position but thrusts MacKenzie Blackwood into a prominent full-time role, which is a good thing. The 24-year-old was second among all starters last season in HDSV% and ninth (out of 87) in GSAA. It led to Blackwood posting a 22-14-8 record, while New Jersey went 6-15-4 without him.

In his first season as a full-time starter, Blackwood breaks out in a big way and thrusts himself into the top-five in Vezina voting. Nico Hischier takes a big step forward, and Jack Hughes finds his game after a bitterly disappointing rookie season - much like Leon Draisaitl and Joe Thornton - as a young, hungry Devils team secures an unlikely playoff appearance at the expense of the Capitals, who begin their downward trajectory behind an aging core.

Thomas Chabot averages nearly 30 minutes a game and wins the Norris Trophy (+2800)

It's not entirely outlandish, given he led the NHL with 26:00 TOI/G last season. Chabot is a workhorse, and his ice time has increased significantly each year he's been in the league. There was a stretch of 10 games from Dec. 17 to Jan. 11 in 2019-20 where he averaged 31:31 TOI, and the Senators took points from six of those contests.

Another jump in average ice time, coupled with a return to his 2018-19 point-scoring form on an improved Ottawa team, helps Chabot pull ahead of a loaded field to become the youngest player to win the Norris since former Senator Erik Karlsson in 2015 - also in his age-24 season.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, strongly believes in the power of the jinx, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Best bets to win the 2021 Stanley Cup

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Finding value on an oddsboard is a commonly misperceived exercise.

It means identifying the biggest discrepancies between the implied and actual chances of a bet winning in the listed market, rather than simply scrolling down the oddsboard and picking the best options at 40-1 or greater.

So, although teams like the Avalanche and Lightning have the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup, they offer little value because their odds are baked into their current market price.

Here are the 2021 Stanley Cup odds, followed by the three teams I believe have the best chance to win the Cup relative to their implied odds.

TEAM ODDS
Colorado Avalanche +450
Tampa Bay Lightning +800
Vegas Golden Knights +900
Boston Bruins +1200
Toronto Maple Leafs +1200
Philadelphia Flyers +1600
Dallas Stars +1800
St. Louis Blues +1800
Carolina Hurricanes +2000
Washington Capitals +2000
New York Islanders +2200
Pittsburgh Penguins +2200
Edmonton Oilers +2500
Vancouver Canucks +2500
New York Rangers +2800
Nashville Predators +3000
Calgary Flames +3500
Montreal Canadiens +3500
Columbus Blue Jackets +3800
Florida Panthers +4500
Winnipeg Jets +4500
Buffalo Sabres +5000
Minnesota Wild +6000
Los Angeles Kings +7000
San Jose Sharks +7000
Anaheim Ducks +7500
Arizona Coyotes +8000
Chicago Blackhawks +8500
New Jersey Devils +8500
Ottawa Senators +20000
Detroit Red Wings +25000

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Carolina Hurricanes (+2000)

Mark Blinch / National Hockey League / Getty

A popular breakout pick last season, the Hurricanes never reached their full potential. Still, they were on pace for almost 100 points despite significant injuries on the back end and in goal.

Carolina ranked near the top of the league in almost every advanced metric while posting a below-average shooting percentage. Positive regression is coming, which is a scary prospect given the dynamic trio of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Teuvo Teravainen is only getting better, and Norris hopeful Dougie Hamilton is healthy again.

This team has very few holes. The Hurricanes boast impressive depth up front, have one of the league's best top lines, and possess a loaded blue line, which should help alleviate some of the unwarranted concerns in goal. Petr Mrazek and James Reimer form a league-average tandem capable of providing the stability needed in net for this star-studded roster to reach its lofty goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+2200)

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Few teams on this oddsboard are more underappreciated than the Penguins. They have a championship pedigree, yet they're being discounted due to a pair of early playoff exits. While a Sharks-like demise is a looming inevitability, Pittsburgh still has at least another year as legitimate contenders.

There's little question surrounding the Penguins' offensive ability. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin remain elite producers, and the supporting cast up front is as strong as it's been in years.

Additionally, the concerns that have been raised about the defense are overblown. The top four is strong, and general manager Jim Rutherford can easily address the bottom pairing during the season.

Pittsburgh's goaltending situation will also be significantly improved with Tristan Jarry taking the reins. Matt Murray posted a -11.57 goals saved above average last season, the sixth-worst mark among goalies to appear in at least 30 games. Jarry's GSAA mark of 10.83 was 13th among all netminders, and he was excellent in his lone playoff start against the Canadiens.

The Penguins' +2200 odds imply just a 4.3% Cup chance. In reality, that number should be closer to 7% which would mean odds of +1300. There's significant value here.

Montreal Canadiens (+3500)

Mark Blinch / National Hockey League / Getty

Advanced metrics had the Canadiens among the league's most impressive teams last season despite a plethora of injuries. At five-on-five, Montreal posted the second-best percentages of Corsi For, shots for, expected goals for, and scoring chances for, behind only the Golden Knights.

We saw what this team could do when healthy in the playoffs in front of a rested Carey Price. The Canadiens beat the Penguins in the play-in round before losing to the Flyers despite owning 62.2% of the expected goal share during the series at five-on-five. Montreal's brand of hockey is conducive to long-term success, and while the results haven't always followed, the talent is finally there for the Habs to make some noise.

Jake Allen's arrival means the Canadiens have a legitimate backup to help preserve Price, while rookie Alexander Romanov and former Cup winner Joel Edmundson solidify the back end. Tyler Toffoli and Josh Anderson will provide a much-needed injection of scoring up front, while a healthy Jonathan Drouin, coupled with the continued development of Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi, provide Montreal with a much higher ceiling offensively.

In a wide-open North Division, the Canadiens' odds of reaching the conference finals sit a shade below 20%, drastically higher than they would be in the Atlantic. That presents a terrific hedge opportunity for those who buy in now, as +3200 - just 2.7% implied Cup odds - is a bad price for a strong Montreal team.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, strongly believes in the power of the jinx, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Best bets to make/miss the playoffs: Regression looms for Canucks, Caps

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A condensed regular-season schedule that will see teams play 56 games in under four months promises to make this year's playoff sprint as intense as ever.

Each game's magnitude is amplified as clubs are slated to only play within their divisions, and the new format couldn't be simpler, with four teams from each group making the postseason.

Here are every team's odds of making the playoffs, followed by our favorite value bets.

TEAM MAKE MISS
Tampa Bay Lightning -850 +550
Colorado Avalanche -800 +500
Toronto Maple Leafs -750 +475
Vegas Golden Knights -750 +450
Carolina Hurricanes -450 +325
Boston Bruins -400 +300
St. Louis Blues -320 +250
Philadelphia Flyers -260 +210
Dallas Stars -225 +180
Edmonton Oilers -200 +165
Montreal Canadiens -200 +165
Washington Capitals -190 +160
Calgary Flames -185 +155
Pittsburgh Penguins -180 +150
Nashville Predators -115 -115
Vancouver Canucks -115 -115
Minnesota Wild +100 -120
Columbus Blue Jackets +105 -135
Winnipeg Jets +110 -140
Florida Panthers +115 -135
New York Islanders +120 -150
New York Rangers +130 -150
San Jose Sharks +230 -280
Anaheim Ducks +270 -340
Arizona Coyotes +270 -340
Buffalo Sabres +300 -400
Los Angeles Kings +375 -550
New Jersey Devils +400 -575
Chicago Blackhawks +525 -850
Ottawa Senators +800 -2000
Detroit Red Wings +1200 -4000

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Minnesota Wild: Yes (+100)

There might not be a preseason bet I like more than the Wild making the playoffs at even money. This is a solid hockey team facing minimal competition for fourth place in the West Division.

Minnesota is loaded on the back end with one of the strongest top-six units in the league, playing in front of an underrated goaltending tandem with Alex Stalock and newly acquired Cam Talbot. The Wild aren't simply going to outscore teams, but they'll generate a lot more offense than in recent years. This young forward group is primed to take a step forward, led by budding superstar Kevin Fiala and exciting rookie Kirill Kaprizov.

In a top-heavy West Division, the Wild shouldn't have much issue rounding out the playoff field behind the Avalanche, Golden Knights, and Blues. The Coyotes severely lack firepower. San Jose is spiraling toward a rebuild with a depleted bottom-six and miserable goaltending situation. The Ducks and Kings will safely assume the role of bottom-feeders. The path is clear as day for the Wild to return to the postseason in 2021.

Washington Capitals: No (+160)

The Capitals, who last missed the playoffs in the 2013-14 season and won the Cup in 2018, are still being viewed by the masses as this perennial championship contender. But cracks are forming under the surface, and the bottom will fall out on this team sooner than we may realize.

Washington is one of the NHL's oldest teams, and that's not a recipe for success with rest days in short supply this year. Also, regression looms for a club whose underlying numbers weren't nearly as impressive as its record suggested last season. Depth isn't the Capitals' issue, but the declining production of their top stars upfront is a problem, creating warranted skepticism as to whether they can still perform at the elite level needed to succeed. Defensively, they are average at best, while 23-year-old Ilya Samsonov is no sure thing in goal.

Washington has been placed in the ultra-competitive East Division under this new format. The Bruins, Penguins, and Flyers will claim three divisional playoff spots, leaving the Capitals to fight for the final slot. The Rangers, Devils, and Sabres are all young, hungry, and vastly improved, while the Islanders still aren't getting the respect they deserve. This line offers great value.

Vancouver Canucks: No (-115)

Coming off an exemplary playoff run with their young core, it's assumed the Canucks will continue their ascent in 2021. That's hardly a safe assumption. Vancouver's postseason success came on the back of good fortune more than anything, managing just a 40.8% expected-goals rate (xGF%). It was a common theme all season for the Canucks, who ended the regular season bottom 10 in Corsi percentage and bottom five in xGF%, allowing the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes.

The team was bailed out consistently by the heroics of the now-departed Jacob Markstrom and still barely reached the postseason. It leaves a massive void in Vancouver's net that isn't going to be filled by Thatcher Demko and Braden Holtby. Demko turned heads in the playoffs, but his abbreviated run was a flash in the pan. He posted a pedestrian .905 save percentage in the regular season, and the Canucks played .500 hockey with him between the pipes. Holtby, meanwhile, was legitimately bad last season and his best days are clearly behind him.

In addition to the downgrade in net and looming regression, the Canucks possess a very weak supporting cast for their elite young core. Vancouver's bottom-six is among the league's worst, and its third pairing is barely replacement level following a disappointing offseason. In a year where depth will prove vital, the Canucks' lack thereof will see them take a step back in a very competitive North Division.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

2021 Hart Trophy odds: Is this finally the year for MacKinnon?

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

The Hart Trophy market has been incredibly rewarding for bettors during the last six seasons, with Sidney Crosby (3-1) being the last to win league MVP at shorter than 10-1 odds back in the 2013-14 season.

Can Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon buck that trend this season, or will another generously priced star rise to the occasion?

PLAYER ODDS
Connor McDavid +460
Nathan MacKinnon +600
Artemi Panarin +1000
Leon Draisaitl +1200
Auston Matthews +1500
Brayden Point +1500
Jack Eichel +1500
Elias Pettersson +1600
Alexander Ovechkin +1700
Mitch Marner +1700
Brad Marchand +1800
Sebastian Aho (CAR) +2300
Evgeni Malkin +2500
Sidney Crosby +2500
Patrick Kane +2700
David Pastrnak +2800
Connor Hellebuyck +2900
Taylor Hall +2900
Jonathan Huberdeau +3100
Mikko Rantanen +3200
Patrice Bergeron +3200
Aleksander Barkov +3500
Steven Stamkos +3500
Matthew Barzal +3600
Cale Makar +4200
Mark Scheifele +4200
Mark Stone +4200
Mika Zibanejad +4200
Nico Hischier +4200
Quinn Hughes +4200
John Tavares +4500
Blake Wheeler +4800
Carey Price +4800
Carter Hart +4800
John Carlson +4800
Johnny Gaudreau +4800
Ryan O'Reilly +4800
Sean Couturier +4800

Listing players 50-1 or shorter.

Nathan MacKinnon (+600)

Twice a runner-up in Hart voting (2018 and 2020), MacKinnon is primed for a monster season. His 93 points last year were 43 more than the second-most on the Colorado Avalanche, making him the clear catalyst on an NHL powerhouse.

To secure the hardware, he'll have to ensure Colorado lives up lofty expectations, meaning a dominant regular season, a West Division title, and perhaps a Presidents' Trophy. It's all very attainable for what is a truly stacked roster with MacKinnon leading the way.

The 25-year-old brings a fiery intensity to his game and could go scorched earth this year to avenge last season's early playoff exit.

Jack Eichel (+1500)

For a lot of players on this oddsboard, the path to capturing the award is a bit murky. For many, a career year simply won't be enough. But for Eichel, it's relatively straightforward, and that makes him a nice value at this price.

If Eichel can produce at a slightly higher clip than last season and lead the Buffalo Sabres to their first playoff berth since 2010-11, he's going to be at the forefront of the MVP conversation.

He's finally got a running mate on the top line in former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall, so it's well within reason to expect a jump in production from Eichel after he put up 78 points in 68 games last season - a 94-point pace over 82 contests. He turned Jeff Skinner into a 40-goal scorer in 2018-19, so imagine what he can do with Hall.

The roadblock here is the Sabres will play in a very tough East Division - in which there are no weak links - and lack the depth and goaltending to compete with many of the top teams. However, if the Sabres make the playoffs this year, it's going to be on Eichel's back.

Andrei Svechnikov (+9000)

While there's a ton of talent atop the oddsboard, it's hardly far-fetched for an off-the-radar player to swoop in and win the award. Leon Draisaitl (2020), Hall (2018), and Patrick Kane (2016) were all significant longshots to win the Hart Trophy when they claimed the honor.

Svechnikov took a big step forward from his rookie to sophomore season, jumping from 0.24 goals per game and 0.45 points per game to 0.35 and 0.90, respectively. Entering his third NHL campaign, Svechnikov could break out in a big way as a cornerstone of one of the league's most potent lines on a Carolina Hurricanes team poised to make the jump from playoff hopefuls to Cup contenders.

At five-on-five, the Hurricanes had a Corsi for percentage of 56.9 (ninth-best) and expected goals for per 60 minutes of 3.1 (fifth-best) when Svechnikov was on the ice last season. He's a dynamic offensive player primed for another statistical leap in his third season, as he now possesses the confidence to match his ability.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

2020-21 Stanley Cup odds: Teams to buy, sell amid chaotic offseason

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Free agency in October. Weird. Such is life in 2020, and it's only fitting that an offseason taking place during what is usually the start of the regular season brings some wild and unexpected activity.

With the dust settling following a flurry of signings and trades, theScoreBet released our Stanley Cup odds for the 2020-21 season, and we dive into the teams you need to be buying and selling at their current price.

Team Odds
Colorado Avalanche +450
Tampa Bay Lightning +800
Vegas Golden Knights +900
Boston Bruins +1100
Dallas Stars +1600
Philadelphia Flyers +1600
Carolina Hurricanes +1800
New York Islanders +1800
St. Louis Blues +1800
Washington Capitals +1800
Pittsburgh Penguins +2200
Toronto Maple Leafs +2200
Vancouver Canucks +2200
Edmonton Oilers +2800
Calgary Flames +3000
Nashville Predators +3000
Florida Panthers +3500
New York Rangers +3500
Columbus Blue Jackets +3800
San Jose Sharks +4000
Winnipeg Jets +4000
Montreal Canadiens +4500
Buffalo Sabres +5000
Anaheim Ducks +6000
Chicago Blackhawks +6000
Minnesota Wild +6000
Arizona Coyotes +6500
Los Angeles Kings +7000
New Jersey Devils +8500
Ottawa Senators +12500
Detroit Red Wings +15000

Buy

Toronto Maple Leafs (+2200)

While the Leafs didn’t necessarily get better in the offseason, they drastically changed the culture of the team. Wayne Simmonds, Zach Bogosian, and Joe Thornton's best days are well behind them, but they each add an element of tenacity and experience desperately needed in Toronto. The bottom six is a cause for concern - it's a slow group that will be exposed against good teams - with the trades of Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen hurting the Leafs' depth, but Kyle Dubas did well to improve the back end.

T.J. Brodie and Bogosian are clear stylistic upgrades over Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci, fitting well into the top six. If the Leafs can get enough production up front from their complementary pieces - admittedly a big if - the rest is in place for this team to be a difficult one to play against. Oddsmakers have finally softened a bit on Toronto, so don't wait much longer to get in.

Montreal Canadiens (+4500)

There was a lot of pressure on general manager Marc Bergevin heading into the offseason to build on a strong playoff performance and the emergence of young stars Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. He delivered. Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli add much-needed scoring to the top six, the arrivals of Joel Edmundson and Alex Romanov solidify a deep blue line, while the acquisition of Jake Allen provides the Canadiens with a true backup goalie for the first time in years, lightening the burden on Carey Price.

The Habs have great depth throughout the roster, with a healthy blend of size and skill. With the continued progression of Suzuki and Kotkaniemi, the Canadiens can make some real noise this season in a wide-open Eastern Conference. This price should be in the 25-1 to 30-1 range.

Sell

Colorado Avalanche (+450)

Don't get me wrong, the Avalanche had a better offseason than just about anyone, and far and away the best of any true Cup contender. Joe Sakic might not have many more of his phone calls answered after absolutely fleecing the Islanders for defenseman Devon Toews. Brandon Saad was another smart acquisition, as Colorado added excellent value to what was arguably already the best roster in the NHL.

So why sell on the Avalanche? Because +450 is an egregious price in the futures market. It's an especially egregious price in a league of parity and arguably the toughest trophy to win in professional sports. Even if the Avalanche rip through the regular season and finish atop the Western Conference, these are the sort of odds you can get at the start of the playoffs. Exercise patience here.

New York Islanders (+1800)

Speaking of getting fleeced, losing Toews for virtually nothing was the cherry on top of a miserable offseason for the Islanders, just weeks after coming so close to reaching the Stanley Cup Final. Salary cap issues were the driving force, but Toews’ departure will be a crippling blow on the blue line. Losing Thomas Greiss will be made more manageable by the arrival of Ilya Sorokin, but this team did nothing to improve and that's a big concern. At just +1800, I'm staying far, far away.

Vancouver Canucks (+2200)

It’s been a head-scratching offseason for general manager Jim Benning. The biggest blow was the departure of Jacob Markstrom, who was playing at a Vezina level for this team last season. It vaults Thatcher Demko into a full-time role, with Braden Holtby and his declining skills brought in to share duties.

Chris Tanev and Troy Stecher signing elsewhere is a blow to the Canucks' already worrisome depth, but the most puzzling decision was not bringing back Toffoli, who signed an incredibly reasonable and affordable deal in Montreal. Sure, acquiring Nate Scmidt was one of the best trades of the offseason, but it’s not enough to erase the irreversible damage done before that. This is a team primed for a decline.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.