All posts by Todd Cordell

Expect offensive explosion between Leafs, Lightning

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We have a small but exciting five-game slate on the docket Wednesday night. Let's look at a few of my favorite ways to attack it.

Lightning (+110) @ Maple Leafs (-130)

Offense tends to explode when the Lightning and Maple Leafs square off. Seven of their past eight regular-season meetings have featured seven goals or more, with an average of 7.75 goals per game.

There's no reason to expect different in this game. Even with Mitch Marner sidelined, Toronto is firing on all cylinders offensively. Led by Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, the same can be said of Tampa Bay.

The Lightning have scored 3.64 goals per 60 minutes since the calendar flipped, which ties them for third in the NHL. The Maple Leafs have scored 3.72 goals per 60 over the same period. That puts them ahead of every team but the Avalanche.

The abundance of firepower in this game means goals will be scored in bulk because of the efficiency and talent of the shooters. On top of that, the goaltending matchup doesn't look all that great.

Andrei Vasilevskiy isn't playing anywhere close to the level we've come to expect from him. It's not getting better, either: Vasilevskiy has conceded three or more goals in 13 of his past 17 starts.

Joseph Woll has allowed 19 goals over his last six starts (3.16 per game), so it's not like he's untouchable at the other end of the ice.

Expect Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Kucherov, Point, and all the dynamic stars in this game to make plenty happen en route to another high-scoring affair.

Bet: Over 6.5 (-115)

Mika Zibanejad: Over 2.5 shots

The Devils are struggling defensively. They're banged up on the back end and playing very fast, resulting in a ton of shot volume against them on a nightly basis.

A lot of the shots are coming from opposing centers. The Devils have conceded 13.30 shots per game to the position over the last 10, according to ShotPropz. No team has allowed more.

That puts Zibanejad firmly on the radar. The Swede has gone over his total in five of the past six games, averaging 6.33 shot attempts in that span. He also has a strong history against the Devils, surpassing his total in four straight regular-season contests. He's also in good shooting form right now.

With Zibanejad rested and playing at home against a Devils team that played Tuesday, this is a great spot for him to continue firing away.

Odds: -134 (playable to -150)

Conor Garland: Over 2.5 shots

Garland is in his best shooting form of the season. He surpassed his total in seven of the past nine games and is consistently hovering around the five-attempt mark. He plays a hard-nosed game and lives around the net, so he needs fewer attempts than perimeter shooters to cash this bet.

His uptick in shots stems from more opportunity. Garland is riding shotgun with J.T. Miller at even strength and skates on the top power-play unit. He routinely logs 15 minutes in his current role alongside the team's best weapons and is in ideal situations for generating offense.

He should have no problem continuing his current trajectory against the Coyotes. They bleed shots at five-on-five and have the worst shot suppression numbers in the NHL while undermanned.

It's also worth noting there's a bit of a revenge factor. Garland has gone over his total in five of seven contests against his former team, producing an average of 3.4 shots on goal.

Expect that to continue on Wednesday night.

Odds: -114 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Ovechkin to shoot the lights out vs. Sabres

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We started the week strong, cashing two of three player props on Monday night.

We'll look to build on a solid foundation with three more plays for Tuesday's fruitful card.

Alex Ovechkin: Over 3.5 shots

The Capitals are holding onto a playoff spot by the skin of their teeth. They'll need their captain to carry a heavy load to get the team over the finish line.

We're already seeing that from Ovechkin, as he's logged 20 minutes or more in four of the past five games. Washington hasn't played since Saturday, so he's well-rested and likely heading toward another healthy chunk of ice time.

Ovechkin has fared very well coming off of two days' rest this season. He's gone over his total in seven of the past 11 games in such situations, falling only one shot shy in three of the four deficits. He's getting the job done - or at least knocking on the door - each time out.

When logging 20 minutes this season, Ovechkin's success rate is slightly under 60% - and I expect him to clear that time on ice bar in this one.

It's also worth noting that Ovechkin is a Sabres killer. He's averaged 1.4 points, 5.4 shots and well over 10 attempts over his last seven games against Buffalo.

The Sabres aren't strong defensively, have taken plenty of penalties of late (which bodes well for a power play marksman like Ovechkin), and the Capitals are desperate for every point. Ovechkin should get a lot of ice and be heavily involved offensively.

Odds: -102 (playable to -125)

David Pastrnak: Over 4.5 shots

Pastrnak is in a bit of a shooting rut, recording four shots or fewer in five consecutive games.

Although the Predators are competent in their own end, they mark a great opportunity for Pastrnak to get back on track.

The Preds play extremely high-event hockey: They rank second in five-on-five pace over the past 10 games. The Bruins sit 32nd over the same span, so the Predators should be able to drag more out of them - which would benefit Pastrnak. More shots flying in both directions means more opportunity for the Bruins' best shot generator.

Pastrnak took full advantage in a contest against Nashville earlier this season, firing six shots on 10 attempts despite only 17 minutes of ice.

He's logged at least 20 minutes in five straight games and is coming off multiple days of rest, so he should get a full workload in a pace-up spot. Look for him to capitalize on it.

Odds: -106 (playable to -125)

Jack Eichel: Over 3.5 shots

I generally prefer to avoid targeting shooters against the defensively sound Canucks. Eichel is worth the exception.

He's recorded at least four shots in 13 of his past 16 games, averaging more than five per game in that span. He collected three shots each time he fell short, meaning there was always an opportunity for him to get the job done.

Eichel has consistently gone over the number, no matter how difficult the matchup. He registered four shots against the Jets, seven against the Predators, four against the Bruins, four against the Avalanche, and six against these same Canucks during this hot streak.

The Golden Knights are jockeying for home ice in the Pacific Division - with a win tonight, they'd only be three points behind the Oilers - so Eichel will see all the ice he can handle. He's proven capable of making the most of it, no matter the opponent.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Hyman to extend shooting streak vs. Blues

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The NHL is back in full force with an eight-game slate coming out of the holiday weekend. Let's waste no time getting to the best ways to attack it.

Miles Wood: Over 2.5 shots

I don't normally target third-liners for overs, but this is an appropriate time to make an exception. Wood has piled up the shots of late, soaring past his total in nine of the past 10 games while averaging 3.8 per night.

He's feasted playing alongside Ross Colton and Zach Parise. Parise has been surprisingly impactful on Wood's shot rates. Wood has averaged 16.21 shots on goal per 60 minutes with Parise on his line at five-on-five, which is top-tier production.

Auston Matthews is the only player in the NHL with more five-on-five shots than Wood over the last 10 games.

Now he draws a mouthwatering matchup against a Blue Jackets team that ranks dead last in five-on-five shot suppression over the same period of time. The Jackets also sit 32nd in terms of preventing shots against wingers.

Wood generated five shots on eight attempts when these teams met a couple of weeks ago. With a generous plus-money price attached, I think there's significant value in backing him to get three.

Odds: +125 (playable to +100)

Zach Hyman: Over 3.5 shots

Hyman continues to produce while riding shotgun alongside Connor McDavid. He's registered at least four shots on goal in seven straight and nine of his past 10 games overall with an average of slightly under five in that span.

Hyman is tied with Wood for second in the NHL in five-on-five shots over his past 10 games. I think it's important to note his prowess at even strength because the Blues don't take a lot of penalties.

The heavy lifting must come at five-on-five, which shouldn't be a problem for Hyman. He's ultra-efficient at generating shots, while the Blues struggle to prevent them. Only five teams have conceded more over the past 10 games.

This game should also feature plenty of pace. The Oilers are third in five-on-five pace the past 10 games, while the Blues come in at 12th.

Hyman has seen St. Louis twice this season and combined for 11 shots on 15 attempts over those matchups.

Look for him to get the job done again this time around.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Brayden Point: Over 2.5 shots

Death, taxes, and Point at home. He continues to be a shooting machine when playing in Tampa Bay.

Point has recorded three shots or more in 25 of 35 games at home (71%). He's showing absolutely no signs of slowing down, having gone over his total in 12 of the past 15 (80%) at Amalie Arena.

I don't see the Red Wings being the team to stop him. They haven't defended well this season, especially when playing on the road. Only the Sharks have conceded more shots per game on the road this campaign.

The Wings also give up a ton of shots to centers. They rank in the bottom five over the past 10 games and 30th for the entire season.

Point's odds are a little shorter than most props I target, but, based solely on this season's hit rate of 71%, a fair price would be closer to -200.

Odds: -150 (playable to -175)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Blues to extinguish struggling Flames on Thursday night

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We have a huge slate of games ahead of us on Thursday night, including several with playoff implications.

Let's take a closer look at a couple with our best bets.

Flames (+115) @ Blues (-135)

The Blues are a flawed team that is largely propped up by excellent goaltending. But I don't think they're getting enough respect on Thursday night.

The Flames traded the likes of Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, and Chris Tanev before the deadline. They completely gutted their roster, and it has shown, as the team owns a 2-7 record since deadline day and has been outscored 37-20.

Conversely, the Blues are 6-2-1 over the same period. Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer give the team top-tier netminding. Meanwhile, Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Jordan Kyrou are providing their goaltenders with enough support at the other end.

Look for the in-form Blues - who also have home ice - to take care of business and pick up another much-needed two points as they try and hang around in the wild-card race.

Bet: Blues (-135)

Kings (+130) @ Oilers (-150)

The Oilers are back home on Thursday after a somewhat rocky road trip. They dropped the first two games in ugly fashion and blew a 3-1 lead in the third, needing overtime to see their win through.

A home game against the Kings could be just what the doctor ordered to get the Oilers back on track. They've been borderline unstoppable at home this calendar year, owning a 14-2-2 and plus-34 goal differential.

They've also had their way with the Kings over the last few years. The Oilers won seven of the past 10 regular-season meetings and bounced them from the playoffs in back-to-back runs.

The Kings are grinding out plenty of wins right now, but a lot of that stems from their ability to limit shots and insulate their goaltenders. I don't think they'll be able to protect Cam Talbot nearly as well against this Oilers team.

Edmonton leads the NHL in expected goals and scoring chances in 2024. It will be very difficult - if not impossible - for the Kings to hold the Oilers to the ballpark of 25 shots they've routinely given up of late.

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman will also be taking a healthy chunk of said shots - a very tall order for Talbot.

Look for the Oilers to take care of business inside 60 minutes and gain some separation from the Kings in their quest to lock up home ice.

Bet: Oilers in regulation (-105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Matthews to capitalize at home vs. Washington

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It was another winning night on the ice. Jakob Chychrun soared over his shot total in the first period, while the Senators held Jeff Skinner off the scoresheet. Anthony Duclair didn't get a point on any of the Lightning's three goals, but it was still a profitable 2-1 evening.

We'll look to build on it with three more plays for a busy Thursday card.

Auston Matthews: Over 4.5 shots

Matthews has a bug and is considered a game-time decision, according to head coach Sheldon Keefe. However, I expect Matthews to play, as Mitch Marner, who's out tonight, practiced in Matthews' spot on the top line alongside Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi. You can wait closer to puck drop, but assuming Matthews is cleared, I quite like his chances of piling up the shots.

Matthews generally has an elite winger riding shotgun, with either Marner or William Nylander playing the right side the majority of the time. Surprisingly, however, it's Domi who brings out the best in Matthews and his ability to generate shots at the highest volume.

Matthews averages 17.90 shots and 28.13 attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five play alongside Domi. Meanwhile, he generates 10.89 shots and 23.17 attempts with Nylander and produces 11.33 shots and 20.39 attempts with Marner.

That's not to say Matthews playing with Domi is better for him or the Maple Leafs. It is, however, better for prop bettors eyeing high-end shot rates. Matthews takes on a bigger piece of the pie when playing with Domi, who quietly ranks in the top five in five-on-five assists this season.

Playing with Domi is a big plus for Matthews and his shot rates, and so is a date with the Capitals, who have conceded more shots per game to centers than any other team over the last 10.

Odds: -115 (playable to -130)

Owen Tippett: Over 3.5 shots

Tippett's shot output recently dropped off, but that coincided with a difficult stretch of opponents. His last seven games came against the Maple Leafs (twice), Bruins (twice), Hurricanes, Rangers, and Panthers. It's no coincidence he only managed to go over his total in two of them.

However, Tippett feasts on the weak, getting the job done nearly every time he faces a team outside of the playoffs.

Take the last couple of months, for example. Tippett piled up eight shots against the Sharks, five against the Blues, five against the Blackhawks, 10 against the Devils, and four against the Coyotes.

It's also worth noting he piled up five shots on nine attempts the last time he faced the Canadiens.

They are not a good defensive team at five-on-five and take plenty of penalties. Although Tippett is not on the top power play right now, the Flyers tend to distribute ice time between their two units more evenly than most teams.

He's a prime candidate to exploit the Canadiens' defensive shortcomings en route to a very active shooting performance.

Odds: -122 (playable to -135)

Evander Kane: Over 2.5 shots

Kane is in the midst of a pretty ugly slump. Luckily for him, a date with the Kings is just what the doctor ordered.

He has torched the Kings over the years, averaging 3.9 shots on goal while going over the number in 17 of the past 20 head-to-head matchups. That's a ridiculous 85% hit rate.

Also working in Kane's favor are home ice and ideal linemates for shot generation.

Kane has registered at least three shots in 65% of his games in Edmonton this season.

He is projected to skate on the third line with Corey Perry and Ryan McLeod. Kane averages more shot attempts per 60 with Perry than anybody else on the Oilers' roster. He also generates shots on target at a higher clip with McLeod than he does when centered by some guy named Connor McDavid.

With home ice, pass-first linemates, and a matchup in which Kane has excelled countless times, he is worth backing on Thursday night.

Odds: -115 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Chychrun poised to continue shooting success vs. Sabres

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It was a successful night on the ice. We won our side, our total, and one of our props to give us a 3-2 record and turn a profit Tuesday.

We probably deserved even better, with Seth Jones (three missed attempts) and Nathan MacKinnon (five missed attempts) falling one shot shy of going over their respective numbers despite plenty of opportunities.

At any rate, a winning night is a winning night. Let's take a look at a few plays for Wednesday's slate as we look to string them together.

Jakob Chychrun: Over 2.5 shots

Chychrun's shooting has hit a different level of late. He's recorded three shots or more in eight of the past 10 games and 12 of 15 overall.

His only failures in that span came against the Kings, Predators, and Devils. That's two strong defensive teams comfortably holding onto playoff spots and one desperately trying to work its way in.

Chychrun has averaged 3.4 shots on 6.5 attempts while logging more than 22 minutes per night during this hot streak. He's playing a lot at even strength and also finds himself skating on the top power-play unit, leading the team in attempts and shots on target.

His role as a primary shooter on the man advantage has raised the floor and ceiling for Chychrun each night, and he's reaping the benefits.

The Sabres tend to play in plenty of high-paced games, and only nine teams have spent more time shorthanded over the last 10. This is a good matchup for Chychrun to build on his recent success.

Jeff Skinner: Under 0.5 points

Skinner appears to have fallen out of favor in Buffalo. He was recently demoted to the third line and pulled off the top power-play unit by head coach Don Granato. That's drastically cut into his ice time, as Skinner has played 14 minutes or fewer in nine of the last 10 games. Unsurprisingly, Skinner failed to record a point in seven of them.

He hasn't been productive when seeing such usage. Skinner has failed to get on the scoresheet in 14 of 22 games (64%) this season when logging 15 minutes or fewer.

The matchup looks great for Skinner on paper, but the Senators are in decent form. They've won five of the past eight games, with two of the losses coming against powerhouses like the Hurricanes and Bruins.

Joonas Korpisalo is also in the midst of one of his better stretches of the season. He's posted a save percentage of .900 or higher in five of his last six games and saved +2.05 goals more than expected in that time.

Odds: -150 (playable to -165)

Anthony Duclair: Over 0.5 points

Duclair has hit the ground running since joining the Lightning at the trade deadline. He leads the team in shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, high-danger chances, and goals at five-and-five and has more points than all but Nikita Kucherov.

Duclair has found the scoresheet in all seven games with the Bolts and made the most of playing opposite Steven Stamkos on a dangerous second line.

This offensive surge from Duclair is one of the reasons the Lightning have climbed back into the race for the third seed in the Atlantic Division.

While the Bruins are a difficult matchup for offensive players, they're in the latter half of a road back-to-back, and Linus Ullmark isn't as untouchable as a year ago. He hasn't played quite as well as Jeremy Swayman this season despite often getting the weaker opponents in the rotation.

With a key role in a high-powered offense, the red-hot Duclair is worth backing for a point at a very reasonable price.

Odds: -120 (playable to -135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Capitals to soar past Red Wings in high-stakes clash

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We have a massive 12-game slate ahead of us on Tuesday night, which features plenty of games with playoff implications.

Let's dive into the best ways to attack it.

Red Wings (+105) @ Capitals (-125)

This game means a lot in the Eastern Conference playoff race, and I see plenty of reason to side with the home team.

At the top of the list has to be goaltending. The projected matchup of Alex Lyon versus Charlie Lindgren massively favors the Capitals, even more so if we zero in on their recent performance.

Lyon is 0-7 with an .876 save percentage during March. He's conceded 5.51 goals above expectation in that span, one of the worst marks in the league.

The Red Wings are giving up a lot of chances, and he just hasn't shown the ability to bail them out anywhere close to as often as needed. He isn't making the saves he's supposed to, let alone any extra.

It's a much different story at the other end of the rink. Lindgren is 7-3 with a .923 save percentage this month. He also ranks third in the NHL in goals saved above expected with a net rating of plus-8.84 through 11 appearances.

He recently gave up seven goals to the Maple Leafs, but his numbers remain good. That shows you the level Lindgren has played on a game-by-game basis.

The Capitals are also in much better form offensively. Led by a resurgent Alex Ovechkin, they sit ninth in goals per minute this month. That's a far cry from the 30th-place Red Wings, who have scored more efficiently than only the Kraken and Ducks.

I see a lot of edges for the Capitals in this spot. Factor in that they also have home ice in their back pocket, and this line appears short.

Bet: Capitals (-125)

Flames (-175) @ Blackhawks (+150)

If you like fire-wagon hockey, this probably won't be the game for you.

The Blackhawks have struggled at the offensive end all season long. They've scored just 2.2 goals per game while generating an average of only 27.1 shots.

They don't create a lot of volume and, save for Connor Bedard, have very little high-end offensive talent that can help them make the most of the opportunities they do get.

The expectation is that Jacob Markstrom will start in goal for the Flames. He's been one of the best netminders in the NHL all season long and is unlikely to give the Blackhawks many (if any) goals they don't necessarily deserve.

Even if the Flames throw a curveball and go back to Dustin Wolf, the Blackhawks' offense will likely still be in a tough spot. The talented youngster is really coming on, having allowed two goals or fewer in three of his past four starts.

Conversely, I don't expect a whole lot from the Flames' offense. They've really struggled since the deadline, ranking 26th in goals per minute and 28th in finishing rate.

Blackhawks starter Petr Mrazek has hit a bit of a wall of late, but he's largely played well this season. A date with a struggling Flames attack is a good spot for him to get back on track.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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MacKinnon to continue home dominance vs. Canadiens

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We started the week on a strong note with our player props, cashing two of three plays during a quiet night in the NHL.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more plays for Tuesday's juicy card.

Nathan MacKinnon: Over 4.5 shots

MacKinnon is on a different planet right now, especially when playing at home. He has at least six shots (yes, six!) in eight of his past nine games, averaging just under seven shots on target per night in that span.

The only time he didn't get the job done was against an improved Maple Leafs squad, and MacKinnon still recorded three points. He made his mark offensively - he just didn't hit the net with his shots.

The Avalanche star should have little problem piling up the shots against the Canadiens, a poor defensive side that has given up more volume to opposing centers than any team in the league over the last 10 games.

It's also worth noting MacKinnon has at least one point in all 34 home games this season and has finished with multiple points 74% of the time. He is in the midst of a truly historic campaign, chasing down Wayne Gretzky for the most consecutive home games with a point.

MacKinnon is an ultra-competitive player. He is not only chasing history as an individual but the No. 1 seed as the lead dog of his team. He has every incentive to continue firing on all cylinders, and I expect he'll do just that in a mouthwatering matchup.

Odds: -140 (playable to -150)

Seth Jones: Over 2.5 shots

Jones has been one of the most consistent shot-generating defensemen for a while. He has soared over this total in eight of the past 10 games and 12 of 15 overall.

He's averaging 3.8 shots on nearly eight attempts in that span, which is the volume you'd expect from a marquee shooting winger carrying a 3.5 total like William Nylander or Filip Forsberg. Yet his total remains at 2.5.

The Blackhawks blue-liner is in a great spot to go over again at home to the Flames. They have really loosened up since selling a few regulars (including two of their top defensemen, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev) at the trade deadline in early March.

The Flames sit near the basement in five-on-five shot suppression the last 10 games. They have given up a lot of volume to defenders in that span; only eight teams have fared worse.

As a bonus, the Flames have played at the eighth-highest five-on-five pace over the same period. A high-event matchup should raise the shooting floor and ceiling of a minute-muncher like Jones.

Odds: -122 (playable to -140)

Wyatt Johnston: Over 2.5 shots

Johnston has been a road warrior this season. His hit rate on the road is 13% higher than at home and the volume numbers suggest that is no coincidence.

The Stars forward is producing 6.6 shot attempts per game on the road, a noticeable boost from the 5.3 he averages when playing in Dallas.

His road success should continue Tuesday night in San Jose. The Sharks have played abysmal defense all season, giving up more shots per night than every other team in the league.

Johnston has faced the Sharks twice already and taken full advantage, recording five and six shots on goal while combining to generate a whopping 19 attempts.

I don't know that I'd expect five or six shots, but he should have little problem going over his total once again.

Odds: -134 (playable to -150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Theodore to shine offensively vs. Blues on Monday

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There are just two games on the NHL schedule to begin the week. I don't see much value in sides or totals, but there are a few player props that caught my eye.

Let's take a closer look.

Viktor Arvidsson: Over 2.5 shots

Arvidsson is an elite shot generator. He registered at least three shots in four of six games this season and in 61% of contests dating back to the beginning of last season.

What I love about Arvidsson is he's also efficient with his attempts. He takes a lot of them and hits the target at a very high clip, allowing him to survive even without a ceiling performance in terms of attempts.

Arvidsson generated five shot attempts or more in five of six games this year. The lone exception came in a contest against the Blue Jackets where he suffered an injury during his first shift and didn't return. Put another way, he registered at least five attempts in every game he started and finished.

That is a key number for Arvidsson. He has gone over this total in 87 of 105 games (83%) with at least five attempts since the beginning of the 2022-23 campaign.

The Kings are within striking distance of the Oilers for second place in the Pacific and played only once in the past four days, so Arvidsson and the team's top weapons should see a full workload.

Odds: -134 (playable to -155)

Filip Hronek: Under 0.5 points

There was a time when it felt like the Canucks scored five goals every single night and Hronek couldn't keep his name off the scoresheet. But that time is gone.

Hronek's production rates came back to reality in recent months. He has brought minutes and strong defense to the table rather points, which was always expected.

He recorded a point in only six of the past 29 games (20.6%) and just two of the last 20 when playing in Vancouver (10%). Not great outputs.

This is hardly an ideal matchup for Hronek to get back on track offensively. The Kings play a very structured, slow brand of hockey that doesn't lend itself to many track meets.

They rank sixth in expected goals allowed over the past 10 games while only two teams - the Predators and Canucks - have conceded fewer goals, and they don't give up many chances. Furthermore, they play low-event hockey, just like the Canucks.

Hronek should be in for a quiet night offensively.

Odds: -150 (playable to -165)

Shea Theodore: Over 0.5 points

Theodore has points in seven of the last 10 and 20 of his last 30 overall. He is consistently finding a way to get involved offensively.

I like his chances in an important game against St. Louis. The Blues continue to give up a lot at five-on-five, ranking 31st in expected goals against and shots against over the last 10 games. They have also struggled to limit shots while killing penalties and sit 26th in goals against per minute in the past 10 games.

Theodore plays a ton of minutes at even strength and quarterbacks the top unit. He is a prime candidate to benefit from the Blues' weaknesses.

It's also worth noting this is a nice pace-up spot for Theodore and the Knights. The Blues rank sixth in five-on-five pace over the last 10 and often create environments where the games are free-flowing and shots/chances aren't hard to come by.

Expect Theodore, who has more points than all defensemen but Roman Josi, Cale Makar, and Evan Bouchard over his last 15, to make some noise once again.

Odds: -130 (playable to -150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Expect fireworks in Avalanche-Blue Jackets tilt

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Only four games are scheduled on a light Friday night in the NHL. Luckily, there's still value to be had on the board. Let's take a closer look.

Penguins (+165) @ Stars (-195)

The Penguins have the look of a team that's finished. Normally a pretty structured team under head coach Mike Sullivan, their defensive game has gone completely in the tank as their playoff chances have diminished.

They've allowed 36.28 expected goals over the last 10 games, which is the league's third-highest output. That's predictably led to a ton of goals against; only the Sharks have conceded more in that span.

Playing loose defense isn't ideal heading into a game against the Stars. They have a deep and talented forward group and get scoring from all their lines.

Dallas has found the back of the net 38 times over the last 10 games, and no team has generated more expected goals. The Stars are putting stress on opposing defenses, and the Penguins don't look equipped to handle it.

Depending on your preferred source, Pittsburgh has anywhere from a 3-6% chance of making the playoffs. Its hopes are slim to none, while the powerhouse Stars are in the thick of a heated battle for the Central Division.

Dallas is in much better form, has significantly more talent and depth, is at home, and is incentivized to put its best foot forward.

Look for the Stars to take care of business within 60 minutes.

Bet: Stars in regulation (-125)

Blue Jackets (+300) @ Avalanche (-380)

The Avs are playing as well as anybody. They own a 9-1 record over the past 10 games, and no team has scored more goals in that span.

The returns of Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen, coupled with deadline acquisitions like Casey Mittelstadt and Yakov Trenin, have made Colorado four lines deep. That's scary considering the top of the lineup is loaded with firepower.

Nobody has an answer for slowing this Avalanche attack down, and I don't expect the Blue Jackets to find one Friday night.

They rank 29th in expected goals against at five-on-five and 27th while killing penalties over the past 10 games. That's a recipe for disaster against these Avs.

Colorado should be able to flex its muscles and score another four or five goals Friday. If that's the case, this game will be in a great spot to go over the number.

For all of the Blue Jackets' faults, they're a respectable team offensively. They sit 13th in expected goals and tied for 18th in actual goals over the last 10.

Columbus has also played at the league's third-highest pace in that span, while the Avalanche come in atop the leaderboard.

All the stars are aligning for a high-event affair in Colorado. I expect a 5-2 or 5-3 type of game and see value in playing the over.

Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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