All posts by Todd Cordell

Senators to stomp struggling Blue Jackets on Tuesday

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Another day, another split for our sides and totals. The Devils cruised to victory against the Kraken, but, unfortunately, the Golden Knights laid a rare egg at home.

We'll take the split and aim for a sweep with a couple of sides for Tuesday's card.

Blue Jackets (+160) @ Senators (-190)

The Senators are really starting to turn a corner. They own a 6-2-2 record over the last 10 games and have posted sparkling underlying numbers, controlling a larger share of the expected goals at five-on-five than all but the Panthers during that span.

Shane Pinto's return has given the Senators three lines capable of driving play and producing offense, while the team's defense is making some traction under head coach Jacques Martin.

Although the goaltending remains hit-and-miss, that shouldn't be too problematic against the Blue Jackets.

They spend a lot of every game on their heels and aren't the most threatening team to opposing goaltenders. The Jackets rank 22nd in expected goal generation and 24th in goals over the last 10 games.

They also have goaltending issues of their own. Elvis Merzlikins has allowed three-plus goals in nine of his last 11 starts, while Daniil Tarasov has conceded at least three in all but two games all season.

I don't think the Blue Jackets' defense and goaltending will hold up against a vastly improving Senators team. Injuries to Adam Fantilli and Yegor Chinakhov also make it a lot harder for Columbus to keep up offensively.

Look for the Senators to take care of business inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Senators in regulation (-130)

Hurricanes (+100) @ Stars (-120)

The Hurricanes finally look like the team everyone expected them to be before the season.

They're dominating in the shot and chance departments every night. With Andrei Svechnikov healthy again, Carolina is much more likely to convert those edges into results.

The Hurricanes are also getting improved play between the pipes. They don't need great goaltending to win games because of how strong they are defensively. Carolina just needs competency, which the team is now getting.

On paper, the Stars have a much better goaltending tandem. Jake Oettinger hasn't been great this season, though, and the play we're seeing from him and Scott Wedgewood is especially underwhelming.

Dallas owns a .895 team save percentage since the calendar flipped. That's nowhere close to good enough for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations.

If the Stars aren't going to reliably get saves, I don't like their chances against an elite shot-generation team that gives up very little at the other end.

I also think Dallas removing Wyatt Johnston from the top line is a mistake the team may pay for in this game. The top line with Pavelski is only plus-three on the season over 400 minutes (it's plus-eight with Johnston over a much smaller sample), and their underlying numbers are nowhere close to as strong.

Without Johnston, Dallas' top line is much less likely to win a best-on-best battle against Carolina's top line.

This should be a hotly contested game, but I like the Hurricanes to leave with two points when all is said and done.

Bet: Hurricanes (+100)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Pucks on net: Backing Caufield as 1 of 3 shot props for Tuesday

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It was a solid start to the week for our player props. We cashed two of three, including a Jack Hughes goal prop at a fruitful +130 price.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more plays for a massive Tuesday card.

David Pastrnak: Over 4.5 shots

Pastrnak is always a priority target on home ice. He's averaging 5.2 shots on goal per game in Boston this season and has gone over his total at a healthy 62% clip.

The 27-year-old's hit rate is even higher if the contest is remotely competitive. Of the last five home games that Pastrnak failed to hit his total, all five were decided by three-plus goals. If the matchup is close and there's reason to push for more offense, Pastrnak comes through at an even higher rate.

I expect we'll get a competitive game in this one. The Bruins are coming off a shutout loss in their own building and are looking to get back on track. The Lightning - winners in seven of their last 10 - won't be pushovers against a divisional rival.

Seven of the past eight contests between Boston and Tampa Bay were decided by two or fewer goals, with one goal being the difference in five matchups. The games are almost always close when these two sides square off, which no doubt plays a part in Pastrnak having five shots or more in six of the last eight versus the Lightning.

Look for Pastrnak to rebound following a quiet game against the Capitals.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Cole Caufield: Over 3.5 shots

Like many goal-scorers, Caufield has rather extreme home/road splits. He averages four shots per game in Montreal and has a 56% success rate. However, he produces just 3.1 shots per contest and hits 40% of the time on the road.

Caufield has a mouthwatering matchup on home ice Tuesday, which is what I love about him. The Ducks are one of the NHL's worst shot-suppression teams, giving up nearly 33 shots per game this season.

Anaheim struggles mightily at five-on-five and is an unmitigated disaster while killing penalties. It ranks 32nd in shot attempts against and 31st in expected goals against on the penalty kill. The Ducks also average 6:28 per game down at least one man - the highest total in the NHL.

At home against a poor defensive team that parades to the box nightly, Caufield couldn't find himself in a better position for shooting success.

Look for him to stay hot and go over his total at home for the eighth time in 11 games.

Odds: -122 (playable to -135)

Patrick Kane: Over 2.5 shots

Since joining the Red Wings, Kane has shown remarkable consistency with his shot generation. He's averaged 3.3 shots on nearly six attempts per game and has gone over his line 14 times in just 20 tries. That's a 70% success rate.

Kane has skated on the second line since rejoining the lineup following injury. I don't think that's a bad thing, at least not in a road game against Edmonton.

Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch tends to use best on best, meaning the dominant trio of Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should mostly see Detroit's top line.

That would lead to a lot of ice for Kane against the Leon Draisaitl line, which doesn't spend as much time in the offensive zone and gives up many more shots and chances.

Kane recorded three shots on eight attempts when these teams met in January. He also recorded at least three shots in nine straight meetings versus the Oilers dating back a few seasons.

Odds: +124 (playable to -115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Tippett primed for shooting success vs. Coyotes

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We have a small but fruitful four-game slate ahead of us to begin the week. Let's waste no time getting to some standout props.

Owen Tippett: Over 3.5 shots

Tippett has mouthwatering shot rates, ranking top five in both attempts and shots on goal per 60 minutes. He does his best work on home ice, posting a higher shot rate in Philadelphia than away from home.

Although Tippett is no longer on a line with Cam Atkinson, with whom he owns a sky-high shot rate, he's an efficient shooter no matter who he plays with. It's also worth noting the Flyers may opt to dress seven defensemen in this game, which would likely lead to some extra usage for Tippett.

The struggling Coyotes rank bottom-10 in five-on-five shot suppression over the last 10 games on the road. They also take a lot of penalties and bleed shots when shorthanded, putting Tippett in a prime spot for a big shooting performance.

Odds: -130 (playable to -140)

Jack Hughes: Over 0.5 goals

Hughes has come out firing since returning to the Devils lineup. He's piled up nine scoring chances and 11 shots on 19 attempts over just two games, which is strong volume.

Tonight's game is back in New Jersey, meaning Lindy Ruff can control the matchups and get Hughes out against more favorable competition. That's helped boost his numbers all season long, as he's averaged 4.6 shots on goal in New Jersey compared to 4.1 shots on the road.

Hughes is also a prime regression candidate. He hasn't scored in five consecutive games and has potted only one goal over the past 11. Before this rough patch, the longest Hughes had gone without a goal was three games. Encouragingly, the goals haven't dried up due to a lack of opportunity.

Hughes has recorded 33 scoring chances, 39 shots on goal, and 75 shot attempts over his last 11 games. That's translated to just one goal, thanks to a shooting percentage of 2.56%.

Hughes scored on 15.8% of his shots in 2021-22 and 12.8% last season. He's an above-average finisher. We can reasonably assume he'll heat up sooner rather than later.

The Kraken aren't as stingy as a season ago, and the Devils are desperate for points. I expect Hughes will get all the ice he can handle in this game and, with any luck, find the back of the net along the way.

Odds: +130 (playable to +120)

Mark Stone: Over 0.5 assists

Minnesota can't keep the puck out of the net right now. The Wild have conceded 3.15 five-on-five goals per 60 over the last 10 games, which is more than all but the Canadiens.

They're giving up shots at a high clip, and the goaltending simply hasn't been up to par.

Meanwhile, only two teams have spent more time shorthanded over the last 10 games. Bleeding shots (and goals) at five-on-five and taking penalties at a high clip isn't a great recipe for slowing down opposing offenses.

Stone figures to be a prime beneficiary. He's skating on the top line at even strength and is also a prominent figure on the No. 1 power-play unit.

He also shoulders more of the offensive workload without Jack Eichel. Stone's shot rates are higher, and he's registered eight points over five home games sans Eichel, in four of which he picked up an assist.

With Minnesota laboring defensively and Stone cooking at home (he has at least one assist in nine of the last 10 in Vegas), a plus-money price feels generous.

Odds: +115 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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NHL weekend best bets: Going under in Minnesota, Sabres to slow Blues

With just three games on Friday's schedule - two of which feature the bottom three teams - there are slim pickings to choose from.

So we're going to widen the spectrum and include Saturday's slate in our weekend best bets.

Let's get to them.

Penguins (-125) @ Wild (+105)

Note: this game is at 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday.

The Penguins have some value in this game, but the bigger edge is in the total. The under of 6.5 goals is the target.

The Penguins have played very tight, low-scoring affairs for some time. Only one of their past 10 games has gone over the total inside regulation and the Pens putting the puck in their own net proved to be the difference in that one.

The recipe for Pittsburgh's recent defensive success is simple. The team has controlled the run of play at five-on-five and taken very few penalties, and the goaltending has been good.

Projected starter Tristan Jarry has only allowed more than three goals twice since Christmas and routinely gives the Penguins above-average netminding. He's saved nearly five goals more than expected in that span, putting him ahead of All-Stars like Thatcher Demko and Jeremy Swayman.

It's also just fine if the Penguins go with Alex Nedeljkovic instead. He actually owns a higher save percentage than Jarry this season (.918 versus .916) and has proven to be a steal by new Penguins GM Kyle Dubas.

The Wild sit in the bottom 10 in five-on-five shot generation over the last 10 contests and, again, the Penguins aren't taking many penalties. That doesn't bode well for Minnesota to have a ceiling night offensively.

On the flip side, the Penguins rank 27th in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five over the last 10 games. They also have a notoriously bad power play that, given the talent at hand, isn't nearly as productive as you'd expect.

Long-time Penguin Marc-Andre Fleury, who now calls Minnesota home, should be able to keep his former team to a manageable number in this one.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-135)

Blues @ Sabres

Note: this game is at 1:00 p.m. ET on Saturday.

The Blues have won plenty of games lately in a completely unsustainable fashion. They've shot the lights out at one end while getting every possible save at the other.

The Blues won four straight games before their shutout loss to the Blue Jackets. But opponents won the Grade A chance battle 67-37 in those victories and recorded 87 more shot attempts.

Their success was entirely smoke and mirrors - the process remained as bad as ever.

Although the Sabres aren't exactly world-beaters, they're on an upward trajectory. They're playing better at five-on-five, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is giving them the level of goaltending they've long been searching for.

He's saved 13.32 goals above expected since the holiday break, which is more than all but Stuart Skinner league-wide.

He hasn't seen top-tier competition in that span, but the Blues don't necessarily change that.

I think the Sabres have a depth advantage, their defensive metrics are much better, and an in-form UPL can go shot for shot with Jordan Binnington.

Look for the Sabres to get it done on home ice.

Bet: Sabres (up to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Panarin to get back to shooting ways Friday vs. Blackhawks

We put together a disappointing 2-3 record with our bets on Thursday. We split our team plays (side lost, total won) while somehow only David Pastrnak came through in the prop market.

Noah Dobson, who averages nearly an assist per game, didn't record one on any of his team's six goals, while Owen Tippett registered three shots early on and - thanks to five missed shot attempts - was never able to get the fourth.

In any case, we'll take our lumps and look to get back on track with a few props for Friday's card.

Artemi Panarin: Over 3.5 shots

Panarin has gone a little cold of late in terms of getting shots on net, failing to go over his total in three straight games. I think that says more about the opponents than Panarin.

He faced the Senators, Lightning, and Avalanche in that time. Although that stretch doesn't sound overly difficult, Ottawa and Tampa Bay rank top-five in shot suppression over the last 10 games, and Colorado sits eighth overall in that metric this season. It's been a difficult part of the schedule for generating shots.

Panarin finds himself in a much more advantageous spot against one of his former teams on Friday night. The Blackhawks rank 31st in five-on-five shot suppression this season and 27th over the past 10 games. Panarin is the focal point of what's been by far the Rangers' best even-strength line, putting him in prime position to capitalize.

He's also feasted on the Blackhawks in the past, going over in six of his last seven head-to-head matchups - and this is right up there with the worst versions of the team he's faced.

Odds: +105 (playable to -125)

Frank Vatrano: Over 2.5 shots

Vatrano has generated shots at a steady rate all season long. He's gone over his total in 31 of 50 games (62%), including 19 of 26 on home ice (73%). That's remarkable consistency.

The Oilers are a difficult matchup with how they've dominated teams at five-on-five. Even so, I expect Vatrano to have shooting success in this spot.

He's the Ducks' most reliable shooter at five-on-five and is equipped with the ideal linemate for shot generation. Vatrano has averaged more than 20 attempts per 60 minutes with Troy Terry on his opposite wing, the highest shot rate he has with any regular linemate this season.

Terry is a very strong puck distributor who's more than happy to defer to Vatrano. The latter also headlines his own power-play unit, where getting him the puck in shooting position is the team's top priority.

Even against a quality opponent, it's hard to ignore Vatrano's volume and consistency.

Odds: -115 (playable to -130)

Evan Bouchard: Over 0.5 assists

Bouchard is one of the best in-zone quarterbacks in the NHL. He distributes the puck well and generates plenty of assists from rebounds created by his heavy slapper.

He's an efficient contributor at five-on-five and one of the best at piling up assists on the man advantage. Only six defensemen have more power-play assists this season.

That's very important to note heading into a matchup with the Ducks. They're very undisciplined and horrendous at killing penalties. No team has spent more time shorthanded and allowed shots at a higher rate while undermanned.

The Ducks conceded 3.4 goals per game, while the Oilers have averaged nearly 3.75 dating back to the beginning of their lengthy winning streak.

Edmonton should be able to net a few goals in this spot. If that happens, I like Bouchard's chances of picking up an assist along the way.

Odds: +110 (playable to -120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Hughes’ return should propel Devils past Flames on Thursday

We had an underwhelming 1-2 Wednesday, splitting our props while the Lightning couldn't grind out a win against Jonathan Quick and the Rangers.

Let's look at a couple of plays for Thursday's card as we try to get back in the win column.

Flames (+125) @ Devils (-145)

The Flames picked up an impressive win over the Bruins last time out and have won six of 10, but I'm not sold on their process. They've controlled just 45% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over the past 10 games.

Calgary isn't good at full strength. And without Elias Lindholm, who led the team in power-play points, the Flames can't be relied upon to produce consistently on the man advantage.

I think the Devils are a much better club. Jack Hughes, one of the NHL's top point producers, is expected to return Thursday. With Hughes in the lineup, New Jersey is extremely dangerous at five-on-five and on the power play.

The Devils are also as healthy as they've been in some time. While key contributors like Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler remain sidelined, most of the team's top weapons are back.

Thursday's lineup will include Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, and Tyler Toffoli. New Jersey has rarely had all five of those guys available at the same time.

I think the Devils underachieving to date has a lot more to do with a constant wave of key injuries than a lack of talent or underlying concerns.

This is a good spot for them to get right against a mediocre Flames team starting to look toward the future and move on from key players.

Bet: Devils (-145)

Golden Knights (-135) @ Coyotes (+115)

How I attack this game depends greatly on what the Golden Knights do in goal. Either way, it's one I see value in getting involved with.

If Vegas goes back to Adin Hill - rather than continuing to rotate, as it's done in recent weeks - then the under of 5.5 (+100) is a play I see value in.

Hill owns a sparkling .938 save percentage through 18 games this season and has been as good as anybody on a per-start basis.

Coyotes starter Connor Ingram has posted an impressive .916 save percentage and is in fine form heading into this contest. He has more than six goals saved above expectation since the calendar flipped and sits fifth in the category for the year.

Headlined by Jack Eichel, the Golden Knights are missing several players with injury. That's taken a bite out of their five-on-five numbers and ability to score goals.

That's why backing the Coyotes is the way to go if Hill doesn't start. Logan Thompson's numbers don't hold a candle to Hill's on the season.

Considering it's vulnerable at even strength and has lost the expected goals battle in four of the last five games, Vegas needs excellent goaltending.

I'm less confident Thompson can provide the Golden Knights with that. In short, I like the Coyotes at +115 if Thompson starts and the under of 5.5 at +100 if Bruce Cassidy goes back to Hill.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Back Lightning vs. vulnerable Rangers on Wednesday

Tuesday was a solid night on the ice, as we went 2-1 with player props while turning a small profit on sides thanks to a Canucks win at a healthy +125 price.

Let's dive into Wednesday's three-gamer as we look to keep the ball rolling.

Lightning (+115) @ Rangers (-135)

The Lightning are one of the hottest teams in the NHL, winning eight of 10 games before the All-Star break. And now they're getting healthy.

Defensemen Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak are both expected to return to action against the Rangers on Wednesday night. They'll provide positive impacts at each end of the ice for a team that did just fine without them.

The Rangers aren't playing their best hockey, either. Although they've won back-to-back games, they sit 22nd in expected goals share at five-on-five over the last 10 contests. They aren't generating a whole lot offensively, and Igor Shesterkin is noticeably having issues at the other end.

He's struggled so mightily that the Rangers believe it's in their best interest to give Jonathan Quick his second straight start coming out of the All-Star break.

Although he played well against the Avalanche, Quick's performance has dipped since Christmas. The 38-year-old has played above his head for much of the season and it's probably not realistic for that to continue - especially in a date with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and a star-studded Lightning attack.

Even if Quick holds his own, I'll happily take my chances with Andrei Vasilevskiy and the more in-form team at generous +115 odds.

Bet: Lightning (+115)

John Tavares: Over 3.5 shots

After a lengthy dry spell in which Taveres' production and shot volume dipped, things are starting to stabilize for the Leafs forward.

He's been a shooting machine of late, recording four shots or more in six of the past seven games and attempting six shots in a low-event contest against the Kraken in the lone exception. The volume is there right now.

Tavares is starting to get rewarded, scoring in back-to-back outings while putting up three points. He should feel good about his game heading into a matchup that's better than meets the eye.

The Stars are a good team, but they've given up a lot of shots lately. On Tuesday night, they conceded more than 40 against the disappointing Sabres.

Over the past 10 games, the Stars rank 27th in shot suppression at five-on-five and 30th while killing penalties. They're struggling defensively right now.

Tavares has recorded at least four shots in 63% of his games this season. What's more, he won't see much of the dominant Roope Hintz line, and the vulnerable Stars are in a back-to-back situation. Toronto's captain is primed to build on his recent success.

Odds: -140

Victor Hedman: Under 2.5 shots

Hedman has struggled to generate shots all season long. He's gone over the total in just 29% of his games, and his success rate drops even further on the road (26%).

The towering defenseman finds himself in a dreadful matchup to increase that number on Wednesday night. The Rangers don't give up many shots, don't take many penalties, and play a very low-event brand of hockey that leads to a lot more floor games than ceiling games from opposing shooters.

The Rangers have especially excelled at limiting shots from blue-liners. Only the Hurricanes have conceded fewer shots per game to opposing defenders over the last 10 games.

Making matters worse, Hedman's workload could dip in this game. With Sergachev and Cernak expected back, Jon Cooper doesn't have to rely on him as heavily.

Odds: -122 (playable to -160)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Backing NHL conference leaders to get job done Tuesday

We have a fun eight-game slate to look forward to on Tuesday night. Oddly enough, it's the top two teams in the NHL I see the most value in backing.

Let's take a closer look.

Flames (+155) @ Bruins (-185)

The Flames have been pretty competitive this season, hanging around a wild-card spot in a year where little was expected of them. It looks like things are about to take a turn for the worse, though.

They've struggled to keep up at five-on-five of late - the Flames own a 45 expected goals for percentage over the past three weeks - and their power play took a massive hit with the departure of Elias Lindholm. There isn't really a spot for them to make up ground.

Meanwhile, the Bruins continue to chug along like a well-oiled machine. They won seven of their last eight games before the All-Star break, with their only defeat coming against the Hurricanes in a contest that went down to the wire.

They continue to dominate teams at five-on-five, their special teams are excellent, and nobody can match their goaltending tandem of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark.

I see edges across the board for the Bruins. With home ice also in their favor, this is a game they should be able to win within 60 minutes.

Bet: Bruins in regulation (-130)

Canucks (+125) @ Hurricanes (-145)

The Canucks are firing on all cylinders. They own a ridiculous 8-0-2 record over the past 10 games and have controlled better than 55% of the expected goals share across all situations.

Vancouver is a very talented team with excellent finishing rates and goaltending. It's difficult to keep up with them if they're coming out even in the chance department, let alone consistently winning in that area. Life will be even tougher on opponents following the addition of Lindholm.

He addresses a need for them in the top six, providing another reliable scorer who's versatile and can play either center or wing. Lindholm also stands to upgrade a power play that already ranks sixth in the NHL in goals this season.

Although the Hurricanes are a good team with the defensive personnel to slow down the Canucks, I don't love their chances in this game.

Pyotr Kochetkov is having a respectable season, but he's made only three starts in 2024, in two of which he posted an .882 save percentage or worse. He doesn't hold a candle to Thatcher Demko.

Andrei Svechnikov is also not quite ready to return, meaning the Hurricanes will be playing without one of their two players averaging more than a point per game. That's not ideal when going up against an elite offensive team (or goaltender).

The Canucks recently closed as -125 favorites against the Maple Leafs in Toronto, implying a 55.6% win probability against a 58-point team. And they didn't have Lindholm in that game.

I don't see how the Canucks, now equipped with Lindholm, should carry an implied win rate of just 44.4% - an 11.2% decrease - against a 61-point Hurricanes team missing one of its best players in Svechnikov.

Bet: Canucks (+125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Pastrnak among trio of snipers worth backing on Tuesday night

The NHL is back in full force on Tuesday night with a hefty eight-game slate.

Let's look at a few of the best ways to attack it.

David Pastrnak: Over 4.5 shots

Pastrnak is one of the most consistent volume shooters in the NHL, especially on home ice. He's averaged 5.4 shots on 10.5 attempts per game in Boston this season, helping him go over his total at an impressive 65% clip at home.

His shooting success should continue against the Flames. They're embracing a retool and starting to sell off key contributors, as we saw with Elias Lindholm. That means they'll spend less time on the front foot, which should help Pastrnak. So should home-ice advantage and the ability to get him away from Calgary's matchup line of Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Blake Coleman.

An additional feather in the cap is that Pastrnak was recently put on a line with James van Riemsdyk. The former has averaged over 31 attempts per 60 minutes with van Riemsdyk on his opposite wing. That's a noticeable jump from the 24 he generates with Marchand on the other side.

With optimal linemates for individual shot generation and the ability to avoid Calgary's best defensive personnel, Pastrnak is well-positioned for another active offensive performance.

Odds: +100 (playable to -130)

Alex Ovechkin: Over 3.5 shots

Ovechkin just isn't having a great season. From his shot volume to his point outputs, his numbers are down across the board.

That said, he's still capable of strong shooting performances, and the Canadiens are the perfect team to bring one out of him.

They've bled shots all season and show no signs of improvement. The Canadiens rank dead last in five-on-five shot suppression over the past 10 games and struggle while undermanned. Montreal also takes a ton of penalties, which should give Ovechkin plenty of extra shooting opportunities in his prime location.

When the two sides met earlier this year, Ovechkin made the most of the matchup and generated five shots on eight attempts.

I expect a well-rested Ovechkin to take advantage of the Canadiens once again.

Odds: -122 (playable to -135)

Kyle Connor: Over 3.5 shots

Mark Scheifele is expected to return to the Jets' lineup tonight and reclaim his spot in the middle of the top line. That's good news for Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi, who have formed what looks to be an elite first unit in Winnipeg.

This trio spent a few games together early in the season and feasted on opponents, controlling 80% of the expected goals share while generating shots at an absurd clip.

A lot of those shots came from Connor, Winnipeg's best and most consistent shooting threat.

Unlike many snipers, he isn't negatively impacted by playing on the road. In fact, his volume - be it attempts or shots on goal - is higher on the road than in Winnipeg.

The Penguins can be vulnerable defensively and frequently play in high-event games. That should create an environment for Connor to make his mark.

Odds: +115 (playable to -120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Target Tavares, Dobson in high-tempo affair Monday night

We have a small two-game slate Monday night as the NHL resumes following a pause for All-Star Weekend.

Although no sides or totals stand out, I still see plenty of value on the board in the player prop market. Let's take a closer look.

Noah Dobson: Over 0.5 assists

Dobson is red-hot. He's picked up an assist in all four games since Patrick Roy took over as the Islanders' bench boss and five straight overall.

What we're seeing from Dobson is the perfect storm. He's playing great hockey, owning better than a 60% expected goals share under Roy while having been on the ice for more xGF than anybody on the roster.

Dobson's also getting a ton of ice time. He logged 26:30 in Roy's debut behind the bench. The 24-year-old followed that up by playing 27:57 against the Golden Knights, 30:17 against the Canadiens, and a hair under 28 minutes versus the Panthers in the game before the break.

Dobson is a highly gifted defenseman who facilitates a ton of offense from the back end. With the Islanders in a heated playoff race and coming off a lengthy break, there's every reason to believe Dobson will continue to log minutes in bulk.

The matchup against the Maple Leafs is also conducive to offensive success. Only nine teams have given up expected goals at a higher rate than Toronto over the past 10 contests. There should be plenty of chances coming the Islanders' way, and Dobson will undoubtedly be involved in a lot of them with how much ice he'll see. Expect him to pick up another assist along the way.

Odds: -135 (playable to -155)

John Tavares: Over 3.5 shots

Tavares put together a rather poor January but started to come on before the All-Star break. He averaged 4.8 shots on 7.2 attempts over his final five games, capping things off by snapping his goal drought against the Jets. A string of better performances, coupled with a nice break to reset, should have Tavares feeling good as the Maple Leafs return to action.

The stars are aligning for Tavares to put together another good night of shot volume against the Islanders. New York plays a high-event brand of hockey that tends to lead to a lot of shots at both ends.

Tavares is also equipped with the pair of linemates he's enjoyed the most shooting success with. Among the five forwards the Leafs captain has spent a decent chunk of time alongside this season, he's posted his best shooting rates with Tyler Bertuzzi and William Nylander. It just so happens Tavares will skate with those two in this game.

Tavares has gone over his shot total in four of his past five contests and four straight against his former team. This is a great spot for another active offensive performance.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Vincent Trocheck: Under 2.5 shots

Trocheck's shot volume has fallen off a cliff lately. He's registered two shots or less in seven consecutive games, which is concerning given that he faced off against bottom-feeders like the Senators, Ducks, and Sharks.

And it wasn't just bad variance in the form of Trocheck missing the net on a higher percentage of shots than usual. He simply wasn't generating many. Trocheck attempted four shots or fewer in six of those seven contests.

For perspective, Trocheck has gone under his total all 22 times he attempted four shots or fewer this season. And that number has been the norm for him of late.

I don't anticipate seeing much of a spike against the Avalanche. Only seven teams have allowed fewer shots per game this campaign, and Colorado's starting to get healthier.

With the way their goaltending has struggled recently, the Rangers have tried to suck the life out of games and put more emphasis on slowing teams down defensively. That's taken away from the club's offensive game, as New York ranks 20th in shot generation over the past 10 contests despite a pretty soft schedule.

Odds: -113 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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