All posts by Alex Moretto

12 fearless value bets for the 2019-20 NHL season

What even is a bold prediction? Given the unpredictable nature of the NHL these days, there really isn't a whole lot outside of the realm of possibility.

Last season, the Tampa Bay Lightning were one win short of an NHL regular-season record before being swept in the first round of the playoffs, the St. Louis Blues went from last place midway through the campaign to hoisting the Stanley Cup by the end of it, and Robin Lehner was nominated for the Vezina Trophy!

I have a feeling we're in for some more chaos this year, so let's get wild with these fearless value bets for the 2019-20 NHL season:

1. The Sharks win the Stanley Cup (25-1)

Erik Karlsson is healthy, players are taking discount deals to stay with the team, and the Sharks bring back pretty much the entirety of the core that reached the conference finals last season. So why is everyone writing them off? This is the year it all comes together for San Jose. They win the franchise's first Stanley Cup as Joe Thornton sails off into the sunset.

2. The Panthers win the Eastern Conference (9-1)

The Panthers already had an excellent core in place led by Hart Trophy candidate Aleksander Barkov, and now they finally have the goaltending after signing two-time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky. Brett Connolly, Noel Acciari, and Anton Stralman provide excellent depth, but the greatest offseason acquisition was that of Joel Quenneville. The three-time Stanley Cup-winning coach is the man to finally put it all together for the perennially underachieving Panthers.

3. The Hurricanes win the Metro Division (4-1)

One of the best teams over the second half of last season, the Hurricanes are incredibly deep on the back end, and the Jake Gardiner signing proves to be a bargain. Andrei Svechnikov doubles his goal tally in his sophomore season, while Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen take another leap forward in their development. Rod Brind'Amour is an excellent coach, and I think Carolina gets a strong season out of Petr Mrazek.

Gregg Forwerck / National Hockey League / Getty

4. The Canucks make the playoffs (9-5), Flames miss the playoffs (2-1), Jets miss the playoffs (10-13)

The future is incredibly bright for the Canucks with Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, and Quinn Hughes, but so is their present. Jacob Markstrom holds down the fort before Thatcher Demko takes over with a monster second half between the pipes to sneak Vancouver into the playoffs for the first time since 2014-15, becoming the only Canadian team in the Western Conference to make the playoffs.

The Flames regress after getting career years from Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, and Mark Giordano, while neither Cam Talbot nor David Rittich take the reigns in net.

Dustin Byfuglien will likely suit up at some point this season, but the Jets need every minute they can get from him after losing Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers, and Ben Chiarot this offseason. Defensive depth is a massive issue for Winnipeg, which struggled down the stretch last season. That's a harbinger of things to come in 2019-20.

5. The Penguins miss the playoffs (8-5)

While many teams around them improved, the Penguins have to rely on an erratic Alex Galchenyuk and an overpaid Brandon Tanev to replace the offensively gifted Phil Kessel. Depth is lacking on the Penguins, which is even more concerning given the recent injury history of ageing stars Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. They barely made the postseason last year. This time around, for the first time since 2005-06 - Sidney Crosby's rookie season - Pittsburgh misses the playoffs. The Flyers finish third in the Metro, behind the Hurricanes and Capitals.

6. The Coyotes make the playoffs (6-5)

The Coyotes would've made the playoffs last year if not for injuries. Things are different this season: Phil Kessel brings his penchant for goals to the desert, Clayton Keller takes another step forward, they get a full season from Nick Schmaltz and Jason Demers, and Antti Raanta's return to health gives them a significantly underrated goalie tandem with Darcy Kuemper. With Rick Tocchet coaching up a storm, Arizona gets back to the playoffs for the first time since 2011-12, ending the league's second-longest playoff drought.

7. The Devils miss the playoffs (10-11), Islanders miss the playoffs (1-1), Rangers miss the playoffs (2-3)

New York and offseason hype go together better than Evgeny Kuznetsov and ... never mind. The New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers are moving in the right direction, and they'll be playoff teams again in a New York minute, but it's too soon for them. Goaltending holds the Devils back, while the Rangers are too weak down the middle to be taken seriously. Regression is inevitable for the New York Islanders, who deserve to miss the playoffs for kicking Robin Lehner to the curb. For the first time since 1965-66, no New York area team makes the NHL playoffs.

8. The Blues miss the playoffs (5-2)

I have nothing but respect and admiration for Blues coach Craig Berube. But in a tough Central Division, with a target on their backs, I don't see how Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington is able to sustain anything close to a 1.89 goals-against average and a .927 save percentage. He didn't even manage those numbers in the AHL. The Richmond Hill, Ontario native takes a step back as St. Louis struggles to find the consistency that got them to the playoffs last year, and finish fifth in the strongest division in hockey.

9. Nathan MacKinnon wins the Hart (14-1)

I can't say enough great things about MacKinnon. From his attitude to his ability, he's exactly the guy you want leading your team. McKinnon goes scorched earth on the NHL, finishing with a career-best 111 points, and the Avalanche, armed with their best roster in over 15 years, finish atop the Central Division.

Michael Martin / National Hockey League / Getty

10. Erik Karlsson wins the Norris (8-1)

Finally healthy, Karlsson finishes the season with a career-high 84 points and helps the Sharks finish atop the NHL, winning the award for the third time in his career. In doing so, he edges out compatriots Victor Hedman and John Klingberg, as three Swedish-born players are nominated for the Norris for the first time ever.

11. John Gibson wins the Vezina (26-1)

I'm higher on the Anaheim Ducks than most. They won't make the playoffs, but they'll be competitive. John Gibson is a big reason why, posting a career-best 2.05 GAA and .936 SV%. Gibson joins Bobrovsky (2012-13) as the only other goalie in the NHL's modern era to win the Vezina despite their team missing the playoffs.

12. Matthews wins the Rocket Richard (14-1)

In one of the most fascinating Rocket Richard races in years, Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews narrowly edges out Alex Ovechkin and Alex DeBrincat, as three players score 50 goals for the first time since 2009-10. Matthews plays 80 games for the first time since his rookie season and hits the 50-goal mark for the first time in his career. Matthews pots two in the final game of the season to finish with 52 goals, while Ovechkin tallies 51 for a second consecutive season, and DeBrincat reaches the landmark for the first time in his young career.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Odds, best bets, and value picks to lead the NHL in goals

Alex Ovechkin has won the Rocket Richard trophy so many times, he deserves partial naming rights.

The Washington Capitals winger has claimed it in six of the last seven seasons as the NHL's top goal-scorer, which is why he's got the shortest odds to win it again in 2019-20. At the pace Ovechkin is scoring it's foolish to advise against betting on him, but there's a new crop of young players emerging in the league that offer plenty of value.

Player Odds
Alex Ovechkin 5-1
John Tavares 11-1
Patrik Laine 12-1
Connor McDavid 13-1
Auston Matthews 14-1
Nathan MacKinnon 16-1
Nikita Kucherov 16-1
Alex DeBrincat 21-1
Leon Draisaitl 28-1
Patrick Kane 30-1
Brayden Point 34-1
David Pastrnak 34-1
Mark Scheifele 34-1
Steven Stamkos 34-1
Taylor Hall 34-1
Vlad Tarasenko 34-1
Cam Atkinson 40-1
Jake Guentzel 40-1
Tyler Seguin 46-1
Mark Stone 49-1
Sidney Crosby 49-1
Johnny Gaudreau 50-1

Auston Matthews (14-1) - Best Bet

After scoring 40 goals as a 19-year-old in his rookie season, Matthews has yet to reach those lofty heights since, managing 34 and 37 in his two subsequent campaigns. Injuries have prevented him from making the expected jump to 50, as he's been held under 70 games in both seasons since appearing in all 82 his first year in the league.

Matthews' ice time, or lack thereof, has also been a hot issue in Toronto - the center has never been among the leaders on the Maple Leafs in that category. He was also fourth on the team among forwards in power-play time per game in each of the last two seasons. Does his ice time really need to increase for Matthews to take a run at the Rocket Richard trophy? He was scoring at a 45-goal pace over 82 games last season, and he leads the entire NHL in goals per 60 minutes since his debut in 2016. A scoring outburst feels inevitable, regardless of how Mike Babcock elects to deploy him. A career year is on the precipice provided he can keep himself on the ice.

Alex DeBrincat (21-1) - Best Bet

There's a lot to like about DeBrincat, who potted 41 goals last year in just his second NHL season and finished seventh in the league in goals per 60 minutes. His minutes only figure to increase as he becomes an integral part of the Blackhawks. He'll be playing alongside former OHL linemate Dylan Strome on the second line and getting top power-play time with Patrick Kane. DeBrincat scored 10 goals in 24 games (0.41 per game) before the team acquired Strome, and 31 in 58 after (0.53 per game). It would be surprising not to see him take another step forward in 2019-20.

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Jake Guentzel (40-1) - Value Play

Guentzel had a career season last year, as the Pittsburgh Penguins winger enjoyed his first 40-goal campaign while setting new highs in assists and points at the ripe age of 24. Another 40-goal season is well within reach, especially playing alongside Sidney Crosby, but he will need an uptick in power-play time to push for 50. He averaged just 2:07 of PP time per game last season, which was 191st in the NHL. With Phil Kessel (3:14 PPT/G last season) in Arizona, there's a legitimate shot he sees his time on the top unit skyrocket.

Viktor Arvidsson (60-1) - Value Play

Unquestionably the best value on the board, Arvidsson registered 34 goals last season despite being limited to just 58 games. He was scoring at an elite rate, with his 0.59 goals per game trailing only Ovechkin (0.63) and Leon Draisaitl (0.61); He was joint-top of the NHL in goals per 60 minutes, along with David Pastrnak. His shooting percentage is in line for regression after jumping to 17.4 from a previous career high of 12.6, but at 26 years old, coming off his third full season in the NHL, there's reason to believe the jump could be sustainable. Either way, at the rate the Nashville Predators forward was scoring at last season, this price is way too high.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL situational betting: When to fade each Central Division team

Atlantic | Metropolitan | Central | Pacific

The Central Division is widely considered to be the best in the NHL, as five of the top 12 teams favored to win the 2019-20 Stanley Cup hail from it.

And it's next up in this series, in which I dive deep into team schedules to identify the best spot to bet against every club this season.

Chicago Blackhawks

Date: Jan. 2, at Vancouver

Congratulations to the Blackhawks, who get to bring in the new year in the fifth- and sixth-most livable cities in the world. After spending Dec. 31 in Calgary, they'll fly to Vancouver for a date with the Canucks. That game is the last in their holiday road trip, and all they'll care about by that point is catching their flight after the showdown. The Blackhawks are 3-11 on the road the last two seasons against Canada's Western Conference teams.

Colorado Avalanche

Date: Oct. 25, at Vegas

If you've been following this series then you already know extensively about the "Vegas Flu." And it's amplified when a team has three full days off before a road game against the Golden Knights. The Avalanche conclude an early six-game road trip in Vegas, after what is sure to be a night or two of fun in Sin City for one of the league's youngest teams. Over the last three seasons, teams are 17-38 (30.9%) in the finale of a six-game road trip. I'd confidently tick that win percentage down even further given the circumstances.

Dallas Stars

Date: April 2, at San Jose

Playing five games in seven nights is tough. Playing five games in seven nights near the end of an 82-game season is brutal. That's the task at hand for the Stars toward the end of the campaign, as they have two back-to-backs in a week, with plenty of travel mixed in. Here's the seven-day forecast: The Stars fly to Chicago, back to Dallas for a game the next night, have a day off, host the Canucks, have another day off, fly to Anaheim, and then play in San Jose the next night. That's a lot of Air Miles to collect in a week. Jim Montgomery better hope his club has a playoff spot locked in by the time it makes the trip to Northern Cali.

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Minnesota Wild

Date: Feb. 1, vs. Boston

The NHL typically does its best to match up teams coming off bye weeks. It takes a few periods to shake the rust off after a nine-day break in the middle of the season. The Wild will be at a significant disadvantage in their first game back from their vacation when they take on a Boston Bruins team that has a game the night before to get back into rhythm. The back-to-back shouldn't hurt the Bruins, either, considering they'll be rested following their own hiatus.

Nashville Predators

Date: Feb. 22, vs. Columbus

The Predators were 0-5 in the second half of last season in the latter contest of a back-to-back. They face a daunting travel schedule in early February that will take them from Nashville to Winnipeg before trips to Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, back home, and St. Louis, all concluding with a stop back in Nashville for a second game against the Blues in as many nights. Later that week, one day after an away contest in Chicago, the Predators return home to host the Columbus Blue Jackets. A second back-to-back in a week - coming off a brutal travel schedule - is as good a spot as any to fade a club.

Fun fact: The Preds play only on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays in October. They don't have a single game on any other night.

St. Louis Blues

Date: Jan. 18, at Colorado

Apparently, one of the perks of being the Stanley Cup champions is a favorable schedule the following season. The Blues have the most games in the NHL this season with at least one day of rest before. Do you know what's not great, though? St. Louis has a five-game homestand leading up to its bye week, but before it can officially coast into that mini-vacation, the Blues have to leave home for Colorado for a night. Where will their minds be during a Saturday matinee against the Avalanche, which will be followed by a flight home to enjoy eight days off? Not at the rink, I'm betting.

Winnipeg Jets

Date: Oct. 8, at Pittsburgh

The Jets need all the help they can get early in the season, as they deal with the distraction of unsigned forwards Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor and the uncertain future surrounding defensive leader Dustin Byfuglien. Opening the season with four consecutive road games won't help. Winnipeg will be itching to get home by the time its East Coast trip concludes in Pittsburgh. The Jets have lost all nine of their games in Pittsburgh since relocating to Winnipeg, and they've lost 18 in a row there dating back to their days as the Atlanta Thrashers. The franchise's last win in the Steel City came in December 2006, when Vyacheslav Kozlov and Bobby Holik scored late to clinch the victory. Talk about a throwback.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL situational betting: When to fade each Metro Division team

Atlantic | Metropolitan

Home to the 2016, 2017, and 2018 Stanley Cup champions, the Metropolitan Division is up next in this four-part series, in which I dive deep into the NHL schedule to identify the best spot to bet against every team this season.

Carolina Hurricanes

Date: Oct. 18, at Anaheim; March 29, at New Jersey

Sometimes it's hard to pick just one. The Carolina Hurricanes face a grueling stretch to open the season, with an early three-game West Coast trip culminating in a visit to Anaheim in what will be their fifth contest in eight days, including two back-to-backs. In March, the Canes will play a Sunday matinee in New Jersey the day after hosting Pittsburgh, which will mark their 14th game in 23 days and the second leg of their fourth back-to-back of the month. Also, they have to find a way to get motivated in front of a humdrum afternoon crowd. Although they're used to quiet arenas, so maybe that won't be an issue.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Date: Feb. 1, at Buffalo

The Columbus Blue Jackets will likely be searching for their legs when they return from nine days off, including the All-Star break, at the start of February. Having to get motivated for a matinee in Buffalo after that much time off is an especially tough ask. It'll be the Sabres' third game back after the All-Star break, so they'll have their legs. The game also falls in the middle of a five-game homestand for the Sabres, with no back-to-backs, meaning fatigue won't be an issue for them.

New Jersey Devils

Date: March 7, at NY Rangers

How much will the New Jersey Devils have left in the tank when they visit Madison Square Garden on the first Saturday of March? It'll be their fifth game in eight days, and the finale of their second back-to-back of the week - the first of which comes in the midst of a West Coast trip. In the nine days leading up to their game in MSG, they play in San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim, and Vegas before returning home to take on the Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues the night before.

New York Islanders

Date: Dec. 27, at Chicago

Only four teams in the NHL have fewer back-to-backs than the New York Islanders this season, but the amount of rest they have leading up to their matchup in Chicago - the Robin Lehner revenge game, as I like to call it - should prove distracting. The players have the unenviable task of leaving their families the day after Christmas, and won't return until late on New Year's Eve. Where will their heads be at during that stretch? We know where Lehner's will be. He's not about to lose to the team who wouldn't pay him after a Vezina-worthy season.

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

New York Rangers

Date: Feb. 28, at Philadelphia

From Jan. 5 to Feb. 10, the New York Rangers have just three road games, with one of them at Long Island against the Islanders. They better make the most of it. Eight of their next 10 games will be on the road, with the last of that stretch coming on the final day in February in Philadelphia after playing in Montreal the previous night. It'll be the Rangers' second back-to-back in a week, and their fifth game in eight nights, four of which are away from home.

Philadelphia Flyers

Date: Jan. 8, vs. Washington

The Philadelphia Flyers play a joint-worst 17 back-to-backs this season and have some brutally congested spells in their schedule. With lots of travel and little rest, there'll be a number of spots to fade them, but one jumps out in particular. The Flyers jet out west for a lengthy California road trip right after Christmas and will spend New Year's Eve in Los Angeles - if only we could all be so lucky. Then they'll fly to Vegas for more partying hockey, Arizona for golf, and finally Carolina, before hosting the Washington Capitals on a back-to-back the next night, in what will be their first home date after a six-game, 12-night road trip. Caps -500.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Date: March 25, at Chicago

The NHL must really hate Pennsylvania. Along with the Flyers, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the only other team to have 17 back-to-backs this season. Three of them come in a 19-day span in March, culminating in a trip to Chicago for their 13th game of the month, where they will take on a Blackhawks team they've lost 10 in a row against (probably 11 by the time this contest comes around).

Washington Capitals

Date: Oct. 25, at Vancouver

The Washington Capitals better hit the ground running, because they play a lot of hockey over the first month of the season. They have two days rest just once between their first game of the year Oct. 2 and their trip to Vancouver. That game at Rogers Arena is the second of a back-to-back on the West Coast against an underrated Canucks team, Washington's seventh contest in 12 nights, and the team's 13th in 24 days to start the season. The Capitals were 3-7 on the road last season in the second game of a back-to-back.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL situational betting: When to fade each Atlantic Division team this season

Mark your calendars!

The NHL season is a grind. As hard as players work at being physical specimens and consummate professionals, they're still human. Lengthy road trips and back-to-backs take their toll, while off-ice distractions remain a reality - right, Evgeny Kuznetsov?

In the first of a four-part series, I'll be going division by division to identify the trickiest spot on every team's schedule this season, and thus the best spot to bet against them. I fully expect to go 31-0. With that being said, let's dive into the Atlantic Division.

Boston Bruins

Date: Oct. 8, at Vegas

The Bruins have the unenviable task of starting the season on the West Coast. With two days off before their game in Vegas, there should be plenty of room for off-ice distractions, especially so early in the season when guys aren't as locked in. In an NHL players poll conducted by The Athletic last season, Sin City was voted as the most fun NHL city to visit. In addition, the Golden Knights were voted as having the league's best home-ice advantage. Are their fans that loud, or does it just seem that way after a lot of beverages and little sleep? The "Vegas Flu" is nothing to scoff at.

Buffalo Sabres

Date: Nov. 14, vs. Carolina

This one is almost too easy. The Sabres fly to Stockholm for a pair of games on Nov. 8 and 9 as part of the NHL Global Series. Already at a disadvantage from the long trip, their first game back is against a Carolina Hurricanes team they've lost nine in a row against. Give me the Canes, please.

Detroit Red Wings

Date: Dec. 29, at Tampa Bay

When you've lost 15 consecutive games against a team, the best time to play them probably isn't on the second leg of a back-to-back just a few days after Christmas. The Florida sunshine in Tampa could also prove to be a distraction for Red Wings players looking to make the most of their break from the Detroit winter.

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Florida Panthers

Date: Feb. 22, at Vegas

The "Vegas Flu" - it'll get ya. Playing eight games in 13 days is a tough ask. It's even tougher when it culminates in a trip to Vegas. The Panthers face a daunting two-week spell in the middle of February that involves plenty of travel on both the East (Philadelphia, New Jersey) and West (San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles, Vegas) Coasts. With a day off before their game against the Golden Knights, and two days off after, the Panthers will likely be looking to blow off plenty of steam on the Vegas strip.

Montreal Canadiens

Date: March 19, at San Jose

Death, taxes, and the Canadiens losing in San Jose. The Habs have lost their last 12 visits to the Bay Area, with their last win there coming Nov. 23, 1999, before Jesperi Kotkaniemi was even born. Since the lockout-shortened 2013-14 season, Montreal's been outscored 26-7 in six trips to San Jose. Sharks on the puck line, anyone?

Ottawa Senators

Date: Dec. 11, at Montreal

There will be a lot of spots to fade the Senators this season, if we're being honest. But for this exercise, give me Dec. 11. The Sens have a grueling month of November in which they play 16 games in 29 days, and have consecutive days off just once. They end the month on a five-game road trip - with four contests on the West Coast - that carries into the start of December. Then, they return to Ottawa for just one night before having to pack up again and head to Montreal. Imagine how mentally exhausting that will be.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Feb. 1, at San Jose

As if they need it, the schedule makers were rather kind to the Lightning this season. Their longest road trip is six games, but it's broken up by 10 consecutive off days, including the All-Star break. That being said, they play four of those contests after the extended layoff. By the time the Lightning reach San Jose at the end of the road trip, which will be on the second leg of a back-to-back, they're going to be dreaming about that flight home.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Date: Nov. 29, at Buffalo

A six-game road trip isn't terrible, but the one facing the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second half of November is no ordinary road trip. The 14-day stretch begins Nov. 16 and will see the Leafs visit Pittsburgh, Vegas (ahem), Arizona, Colorado, and Detroit, with the finale a Friday matinee in Buffalo on Thanksgiving weekend. Getting up for an afternoon game is tough when you know you're heading home straight after. The game is part of a home-and-home, so the Leafs can get the Sabres back the next night in Toronto.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL best bets to make/miss the playoffs

The NHL is one of the most unpredictable leagues in professional sports, as the playoff landscape is ever-changing. Such volatility also makes it difficult on sportsbooks to adjust lines year-to-year, and it would be rude of us not to take advantage.

So, who's going to be in the playoffs this season? With a revolving door of contenders every year, it's a great market to find value. Here are some spots to exploit ahead of the 2019-20 season:

Winnipeg Jets: No playoffs (+150)

The Jets were outplayed significantly during the second half, as they closed out the regular season with a 13-14-2 record and made a premature first-round playoff exit. Their underlying numbers support that record, too. Connor Hellebuyck took a step back and resembled the goalie he was in 2017 more than he did the Vezina nominee we saw in 2018. Now, In three years as a starter, he's been average twice. Which season sounds like the outlier here?

Injuries exposed Winnipeg's lack of depth on defense, and that's going to be a major area of concern for the club after losing Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers. Bryan Little wasn't nearly as effective, suggesting he may no longer be suited as a second-line center, which leaves the Jets thin down the middle after Mark Scheifele. Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine remain unsigned, and the Jets will be right up at the cap when - or if - they agree to a deal, leaving the team little room to add pieces during the campaign. In the toughest division in hockey, Winnipeg is a lot closer to being a 90-point team than a 100-point one.

Carolina Hurricanes: Yes playoffs (-160)

Unlike Winnipeg, the Hurricanes were one of the NHL's best teams over the second half. They already boasted one of the deepest defensive units in the league before signing Jake Gardiner. With that addition, they have an embarrassment of riches on the back end, which should help goalie Petr Mrazek build off what was his best season since 2016. Carolina has an elite group of young forwards and should be a lock to make the playoffs this year. If sophomore Andrei Svechnikov takes the leap toward becoming the elite scorer he was expected to be when he was drafted, this team could be looking at a division title.

Patrick Smith / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Calgary Flames: No playoffs (+180)

Every year we see a team go from the top of the division to close to the bottom the following season. Anaheim did it last year. Montreal, Chicago, and Edmonton the year prior. The season before that, Dallas and Florida. And the Flames look like the next team to be added to that list.

They need to clear out cap space before they can sign Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane, which could result in T.J. Brodie being traded. Can they really absorb such a blow on the back end? How will David Rittich handle a bigger workload with Mike Smith gone? Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, and Mark Giordano all set career highs in points last year, surpassing their previous best totals by a wide margin. Can they really sustain that sort of production? Is this the team that won its division with 107 points, or the one that was bounced in five games in the playoffs without so much as a whimper? It feels safer betting on the latter.

New York Rangers: No playoffs (-150)

There's no doubt that the Rangers were offseason winners, but that's hardly a harbinger for immediate success. Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba, and Kaapo Kakko should have fans excited in the Big Apple, but let's all settle down on anointing the Rangers as a playoff team. They were awful after trading Mats Zuccarello and Kevin Hayes, posting a 5-10-5 record without them. The production gained from the recently acquired players will have to be otherworldly to mitigate those losses. They missed the playoffs by 20 points last year, and that was with more than half a season from the aforementioned duo.

This team is also very weak down the middle. Mika Zibanejad is excellent, but behind him are Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, and Brett Howden. Howden is the oldest of that group at 21. New York might have the weakest crop of centers in the NHL. It's a young team that, despite the hype, is looking at a developmental season, not a return to the playoffs in a tough Eastern Conference.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL point totals: 3 overvalued teams to fade

It's all about value.

After bringing you four undervalued teams to consider last week, let's visit the other end of the spectrum by identifying three clubs that sportsbooks are overvaluing based on headline-catching offseasons:

Toronto Maple Leafs under 102.5

A lot of people - led by the Kyle Dubas Stans - are high on the Maple Leafs this season after an active summer. However, it's time to pump the brakes. After finishing with 100 points last season, did the roster actually improve this offseason?

Let's start by addressing the elephant in the room: Mitch Marner. The restricted free agent tallied a team-high 94 points last season but remains unsigned and entrenched in a bitter contract dispute that's threatening to drag into October. Is anyone truly confident that Marner will sign in time for training camp? Dubas hasn't provided much reason for optimism given last year's situation with William Nylander. And considering Marner was Toronto's most valuable player in 2018-19, even a month without him could drastically impact the team's point total.

The Leafs will already be without Zach Hyman (knee surgery) to start the season, making a Marner holdout that much more important to avoid. Their depth will be tested, and looking down the roster I'm not sure that's a good thing. Exchanging Nazem Kadri for Alex Kerfoot is at best a wash, and that's operating under the assumption that Kerfoot can play center. It would leave Toronto thin down the middle if he can't. Meanwhile, Nick Shore and Jason Spezza were brought in, but the latter was a healthy scratch at times with Dallas, while the former spent last season in the KHL and has never scored more than six goals in an NHL season.

By trading Kadri, the Leafs also lost their last bit of grit. As talented as this roster is, it's small and soft throughout the lineup. You could notice a shift in how teams attacked the Leafs down the stretch last season, getting pucks deep and wearing them out by grinding down low. It resulted in a 10-10-5 record to close out the season. Does that sound like a 103-point team?

On the back end, Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci should help shore up a top-four group that will also have Jake Muzzin for a full season. However, Jake Gardiner - a very useful player for Toronto, Game 7 deficiencies aside - along with strong penalty killers in Nikita Zaitsev and Ron Hainsey are all gone. Morgan Reilly is coming off a career year in which he posted an unsustainably high shooting percentage, while Travis Dermott is also set to miss at least the first month of the season.

The Maple Leafs are still a very good hockey team, but there are too many question marks to back them increasing their point total in an Atlantic Division that improved over the summer.

Minnesota Wild under 87.5

The Wild just went through one of the most embarrassing offseasons in NHL history. Former GM Paul Fenton's disastrous campaign was exposed by the Athletic's Michael Russo, and he was fired after just one year in charge. To make matters worse, Bill Guerin was only hired a week ago as the replacement, inheriting a bad roster and minimal flexibility to make changes before the season.

So please, someone tell me how this team is expected to be better after finishing 2018-19 with 83 points? Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, and Charlie Coyle are all gone from a roster that produced just 211 goals, while Mats Zuccarello is the only reinforcement in that area.

At this point, the first line is closer to moving into Del Boca Vista than moving the Wild into a playoff spot, while goaltender Devan Dubnyk already turned back into the pumpkin he was in Edmonton. Minnesota will be lucky to finish with 80 points.

New Jersey Devils under 90.5

Ray Shero went on a warpath this summer to improve his hockey team. He definitely succeeded, but probably not to the extent that people seem to think. P.K. Subban and Wayne Simmonds will help sell tickets, but these are two guys on the wrong side of 30 and coming off down years - not exactly inspiring.

Nico Hischier is now joined by fellow first overall pick Jack Hughes to form what should be an electric one-two punch at center, and of course, 2017-18 NHL MVP Taylor Hall is healthy. But Hall, an unrestricted free agent after this season, still needs a new contract. It could prove to be a big distraction if he doesn't get one before opening night.

The biggest issue surrounding the Devils, however, and the reason everyone should be skeptical about them making a massive jump up from 72 points last season, is the situation in net. Young Mackenzie Blackwood has a grand total of 23 NHL games on his resume and his best single-season save percentage in the AHL was .907. How many times have we seen goaltending hold back exciting teams? The Devils will be fun to watch, but please don't bet on them getting 10 more wins than last season.

Follow Alex on Twitter at @alexjmoretto

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