We have a full slate of games on the docket tonight, which means the return of shot props! We've posted a 61-43 record and are up 17.66 units on the season.
Let's get into our best bets as we try to keep climbing.
Steven Stamkos over 2.5 shots on goal (+110)
Stamkos has recorded at least three shots on goal in seven of the last 10 games on the road. I like his chances of continuing that trend tonight against an injury-plagued Montreal Canadiens side that is bleeding shots.
At five-on-five, the Canadiens have allowed 66 shot attempts - including 39 shots on goal - per 60 minutes over the last 10 games. Both totals rank them dead last. And they posted those numbers with Jeff Petry, their best defender, in the lineup. One can only imagine how they'll fare without him.
Montreal has also struggled to suppress shots while killing penalties, sitting 28th in shots against per 60 in that time. Stamkos is a go-to shooter on the man advantage so he figures to benefit most from this advantageous spot.
Given Stamkos' road success and this mouth-watering matchup, I'm happy to back him at plus money.
Timo Meier over 3.5 shots on goal (-115)
Death, taxes, and Timo Meier going over his shot totals. He has amassed at least four shots on target in eight of his last 10 games and has averaged 4.9 in that span.
Meier has done his best work on home soil, going over the number in six of seven tries while recording 5.1 shots on target per contest.
While the Calgary Flames are a strong defensive side, they're much more exploitable on the road.
They concede only 23.33 shots on goal per 60 in their own building, which comfortably ranks them first. However, Calgary allows more than 31 shots per 60 on the road, putting it 17th in the league.
The Sharks will no doubt look to get their sniper in favorable matchups and, at home, they should be able to do just that. Back Meier to stay hot against the Flames.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The Blackhawks are not a good team. They just don't have the necessary defensive acumen or depth throughout their roster. However, they are better than they were at the start of the year.
Chicago has won six of its last 10 games. In that time, the team ranks 16th in shot attempt share, 22nd in scoring chance share, and it owns a positive goal differential. The Blackhawks aren't playing great hockey, per se, but they're competent, particularly when Marc-Andre Fleury starts.
Fleury has really responded from the worst start imaginable. Among 37 eligible netminders, Fleury sits eighth in five-on-five save percentage. He's sandwiched between Thatcher Demko and Connor Hellebuyck - great company!
Things haven't gone as smoothly for Alexandar Georgiev, who's projected to start tonight for the Rangers. He's conceded 7.7 more goals than expected through eight appearances this season. Among those with at least seven games played, only Aaron Dell and Anton Khudobin have allowed more goals than expected per 60 minutes than Georgiev (minus-1.25).
While New York's play is trending upwards, Georgiev tends to erase a lot of the good work done in front of him.
The Canadiens have struggled from the word go this season, and things are somehow getting worse. They've controlled just 38.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five over the last 10 games, which is an unfathomably bad number.
Thursday was a good night on the ice. We won both shot props and rightfully backed the Colorado Avalanche to win in regulation. Had things gone differently for the New York Islanders in overtime, we'd have swept the board. Alas, a 3-1 night will have to do.
You generally want to target strong defensive teams and quality goaltending when looking at unders. This game certainly meets that criteria.
The San Jose Sharks, somewhat surprisingly, have played fantastic defensive hockey of late. At five-on-five, they've given up just 1.77 expected goals per 60 minutes in the last seven games. That's good for second in the NHL behind only the Boston Bruins.
Meanwhile, the New York Rangers have certainly found their footing defensively after a horrendous start to the season. They've allowed just 1.89 expected goals per 60 in the last seven, which slots them fourth in that span.
Seven games is a rather arbitrary cutoff, but the point is both teams enter this contest playing stingy defense.
And it's not as if the goaltenders need the help. James Reimer sits eighth among those with 10-plus appearances in goals saved above expectation per start.
Igor Shesterkin grades out even higher in that regard, sitting third at +0.828 GSAE per start.
With both teams limiting quality, and each starter playing at a high level, I don't expect fireworks in this game.
The St. Louis Blues are going to be a common fade for the next couple of weeks. Starting netminder Jordan Binnington is in COVID-19 protocol for around 10 days, which means a lot of Ville Husso. That's bad news for St. Louis.
Though his numbers are solid through five games, Husso posted a .893 save percentage last year and was rather mediocre in the AHL the two seasons prior. There's a pretty long track record that suggests he's nothing more than a fringe NHL goaltender.
The Florida Panthers are certainly going to put him to the test. They lead the league in shot attempts per 60 and sit second - behind only the Toronto Maple Leafs - in scoring chances per 60. They should be able to generate a lot against Husso, and I like their odds of capitalizing.
Back the Panthers on home soil against a Blues side missing key players Binnington and Justin Faulk.
Bet: Panthers (-140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Shot props return to the app for this busy Thursday night in the NHL. We're sitting on a 46-34 record for +11.35 units on the year.
Let's get into our best bets.
Victor Hedman over 2.5 shots (-110)
The Blues are a structured defensive team that takes away quality shots and forces teams to the perimeter. They rank ninth in high-danger chances against per 60 but 17th in shots against per 60. St. Louis will undoubtedly stress the importance of protecting the middle of the ice with Jordan Binnington unavailable due to him being in COVID-19 protocol.
Victor Hedman figures to be a prime beneficiary of the Blues' style. We saw that firsthand the last time these two sides met when Hedman recorded three shots on goal at five-on-five alone. Across all game states, he amassed six shot attempts and five shots on target, easily clearing the number.
Look for the Lightning's leader in shot attempts and shots on goal to be heavily involved in this one.
Jonathan Huberdeau over 2.5 shots (-120)
While Jonathan Huberdeau is rightfully thought of as a playmaker first, he's not afraid to pull the trigger. That has certainly been evident of late.
Huberdeau has piled up 35 shots on goal over his last 10 games, and he recorded at least three shots in nine of those contests.
He's consistently hitting the number, so this isn't a spot where I'm worried about a letdown.
The Sabres bleed shots like few other teams, giving up 34.02 per 60 minutes of play over their last 10 games. Only the Canadiens, Flyers, and Devils have allowed shots at a higher clip.
Let's ride the hot hand in an advantageous matchup.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Wednesday was not kind to us on the ice. Both Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle were out for the Kraken, rendering that suggestion a no-play. Fair enough, we still had the Avalanche.
Well, Colorado announced just prior to puck drop that Darcy Kuemper - previously named starter - wasn't available to play. Instead, fringe NHLer Jonas Johansson got the nod in goal and the Maple Leafs absolutely feasted on him. Not ideal.
Luckily, we have a huge slate Thursday to get us back on track. Let's break things down.
This season couldn't be going worse for the Islanders. They've won just five times through 17 games and have dealt with a never-ending run of injuries and COVID-19 cases.
Thankfully, things appear to be trending in the right direction. The postponement of a couple games has given players time to get healthy again. Key members like Anders Lee and Adam Pelech have exited protocols. The expectation is those two, as well as veteran defenseman Andy Greene, will return to the lineup Thursday.
While the Sharks are a competent team, they have defensive issues. At five-on-five, they rank 24th in scoring chances against per 60 over the last 10 games. James Reimer has routinely masked their problems, but I'm not sure they can rely on tonight's starter, Adin Hill, to do the same. Reimer has saved 7.3 goals above expectation thus far while Hill sits at -2.7.
The Isles figure to have the edge in goal. They're getting key players back in the lineup. They're at home. If they don't right the ship fast, the season is as good as over, so they have serious motivation to put their best foot forward.
Colorado was flat-out embarrassed by Toronto on Wednesday night. But despite goaltending concerns, we're going right back to the well for this one.
The Avalanche are one of the better teams in the NHL at five-on-five. They should be able to walk all over the Canadiens, who are getting throttled in that game state. Over the last 10 contests, the Habs rank 31st in attempts against and expected goals against per 60 minutes. Their share of the expected goals sits at just 42%. Now, they'll be without one of their most effective full-strength players in Brendan Gallagher.
Making matters worse is the special teams matchup. Montreal has conceded 12.52 goals per 60 on the penalty kill this season. Only the Canucks have fared worse. That's a recipe for disaster against these Avs. Even missing key players, they lead the league in power-play goals over the last 10 games.
I think the Avalanche are going to outscore their problems, and then some, against the Canadiens in this one.
Bet: Avalanche inside regulation (-105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
We have a surprisingly fun slate tonight. Headlined by a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche, we have six games to look forward to.
The Kraken haven't necessarily upped their play. In fact, their share of the chances and shots has actually dropped. But they're finally getting the competent goaltending they thought they'd have when they partnered 2021 Vezina finalist Philipp Grubauer with Chris Driedger, one of the NHL's save percentage leaders since entering the league. That's huge for them.
So, too, is better health. Calle Jarnkrok is their only forward confirmed to be sidelined, and, with just two points through 14 games, it's hard to argue that's a sizeable loss. Forwards Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle missed the morning skate, so I recommend waiting for confirmation on their status.
Though the Detroit Red Wings are an improving side, they can still be exposed defensively. We saw that Tuesday when they were outshot 42-15 by a Brad Marchand-less Boston Bruins.
I think a fresh Seattle team should be able to control the run of play. As long as the goaltending holds up and at least one of Schwartz or Eberle play, it should be enough for the Kraken to pick up their fifth win in six games.
The Maple Leafs are playing fantastic hockey right now. But luck has also played a role in their absurd run.
Take the last 10 games, for example: the Maple Leafs have controlled a whopping 58% of the expected goals across all game situations, but their share of the actual goals in that span is 73%. Put another way, they're getting better results than they deserve - I'm not trying to take anything away from this team, though, as I really do believe this is the best version of the Leafs we've seen.
Still, they're going to come down a notch sooner rather than later. They're not going to continue getting .961 goaltending, including .920 against high-danger shots.
For some perspective, only four teams have gotten .920 goaltending (or better) over the last 10 games. It's flat-out absurd the Leafs are getting goaltending that good against Grade A opportunities.
I'm buying Jack Campbell as a quality starter - I think he's legit - but even so, he's not this good (nobody is). What he's doing right now simply isn't sustainable.
If ever there was a time for the pendulum to swing, a game against the Avalanche seems like it. The Avs rank third in expected goal share during the last 10 games and were without their best player, Nathan MacKinnon, for the vast majority of them. Bowen Byram just returned, as well.
This Avalanche team, for my money, is as good as any when healthy. It's finally getting its key pieces in the lineup at the same time, and I expect it's about ready to go on a run.
I'll take Colorado plus money against anybody.
Bet: Avalanche (+105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
We didn't have a player props post yesterday. However, those of you who follow me on Twitter were able to enjoy a 3-1 night on shot totals. That pushes our record to 42-30 on the year for +11.49 units.
We'll look to keep the good times rolling tonight.
Jesper Bratt over 2.5 shots (+115)
Jesper Bratt is cooking on home soil. He has recorded at least three shots on goal in four straight games and has averaged 3.8 shots on target over his last five at the Prudential Center.
His line has more or less been the Devils' top unit of late and it's benefited from cushier usage in their own building. That should continue Tuesday.
Not only is Bratt trending upward on his own, he finds himself in a very favourable matchup against San Jose. The Sharks are bleeding shots, ranking 28th in shot attempts against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play over their last 10 games.
I like Bratt's chances of staying hot in this one.
Ryan Hartman over 2.5 shots (-130)
The Arizona Coyotes are a terrible hockey team. They don't generate much and are prone to giving up shots in bulk, as we saw last night against Winnipeg.
Now, the Coyotes are on the latter half of a road back-to-back against the Wild, one of the most dominant five-on-five sides in the NHL.
A lot of that dominance stems from Minnesota's top line, which is centered by Ryan Hartman. The Wild have controlled nearly 57% of the shots - and 60% of the expected goals - with Hartman on the ice.
Hartman's line should be able to generate a lot of shots against this Coyotes team, with plenty of them coming off his stick. He's amassed 53 shot attempts over the last 10 games and recorded at least three shots on goal in eight of them.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
It's the beginning of a new week and you know what that means: futures update!
We're looking at Stanley Cup odds today, identifying the teams we should be buying and selling based on what we've seen thus far. Let's dive right in.
TEAM
ODDS (Nov. 29)
ODDS (Nov. 1)
Colorado Avalanche
+625
+550
Florida Panthers
+850
+900
Tampa Bay Lightning
+850
+800
Vegas Golden Knights
+900
+1000
Toronto Maple Leafs
+1100
+900
Carolina Hurricanes
+1200
+1000
Edmonton Oilers
+1200
+1400
Boston Bruins
+1400
+1400
Minnesota Wild
+1400
+1800
Washington Capitals
+2000
+2700
New York Islanders
+2200
+1800
Calgary Flames
+2400
+5500
St. Louis Blues
+2400
+2800
New York Rangers
+2500
+3000
Pittsburgh Penguins
+2800
+2400
Winnipeg Jets
+3000
+5000
Dallas Stars
+3500
+3500
Philadelphia Flyers
+4000
+5500
Nashville Predators
+5500
+10000
Los Angeles Kings
+6000
+10000
New Jersey Devils
+6000
+5000
San Jose Sharks
+7000
+6000
Anaheim Ducks
+7500
+30000
Chicago Blackhawks
+10000
+8000
Columbus Blue Jackets
+10000
+20000
Detroit Red Wings
+10000
+11500
Montreal Canadiens
+10000
+8000
Seattle Kraken
+10000
+7000
Vancouver Canucks
+10000
+8000
Buffalo Sabres
+15000
+30000
Ottawa Senators
+15000
+15000
Arizona Coyotes
+50000
+30000
Buy
Toronto Maple Leafs (+1100)
I know, I know, the Maple Leafs need to get out of the first round before we start talking about the Stanley Cup. Nobody is buying into them until they prove it ... but that might be part of the reason we have an edge here.
The Maple Leafs rank second in the NHL with a 55.20% share of the expected goals at five-on-five. They lead the league in high-danger chances (252) by a landslide, sitting 35 clear of the closest team. Their power play is really clicking, and Jack Campbell has played at an elite level.
Toronto looks strong across the board, and that's with Auston Matthews finishing at about half the rate he has for his career. There's reason to believe he can produce a lot more, which is a scary thought when talking about a club with 14 wins in 16 games.
Really, this team's only red flag is its history. If, say, Vegas dominated at five-on-five to this extent, led the league in Grade A chances by a country mile, and had a starter with a .946 save percentage, the Golden Knights would be talked about as a force.
Toronto's reputation seems to have led the market to undervalue this year's edition of the Maple Leafs - which really looks like the best yet.
Minnesota Wild (+1400)
Speaking of undervalued, meet the Minnesota Wild. Only three teams have more wins to date. Only three teams have controlled a larger share of the expected goals at five-on-five. The Wild rank second in goals scored during that game state, and only the Bruins, Lightning, and Kraken have done a better job of suppressing expected goals. Put another way, Minnesota is lethal with the puck and suffocating without it.
Although the Wild have piled up the the wins and own a strong underlying profile, they're deemed ninth-most likely to win the Stanley Cup. I think that's too low, especially considering they're likely to go all-in on this year's team given the cap penalties that kick in next year from buying out Ryan Suter and Zach Parise.
Sell
New York Islanders (+2200)
The Islanders currently sit 15th ... in the Eastern Conference. They've won five of their 17 games. The offense looks lifeless, they're dealing with injuries to key players such as Brock Nelson and Ryan Pulock, and COVID-19 is absolutely tearing through the roster.
Sure, they have a ton of home games coming up. But this team will be hard-pressed to crawl out of its early-season hole and make the playoffs, let alone make noise once it gets there.
I doubt the Islanders will fold like a tent and go quietly. But more than 20% through the season, a team 30th in points is priced as the 10th-most likely side to win the Stanley Cup. This Islanders team might finally be getting too much respect.
New York Rangers (+2500)
The Sabres, Senators, Flyers, Coyotes, and Blackhawks are the only teams controlling a lesser share of the expected goals than the Rangers at five-on-five.
While they have looked a little more potent of late, I simply can't buy a team routinely getting outplayed at full strength when the vast majority of every contest is played in that game state. And the refs tend to put the whistles away in the postseason, placing an even larger premium on success at five-on-five.
Igor Shesterkin, Artemi Panarin, and Adam Fox are all among the truly elite at their positions. However, there just isn't enough competent depth around them to make me a believer come playoff time.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
We have just four games on the docket to start the week, and they're rather ugly. Five of the bottom eight teams in the NHL are in action, and only one game features two competitive teams (Calgary Flames versus Pittsburgh Penguins).
Still, there's value to be had. Let's comb through it.
Kraken (-140) at Sabres (+120)
Remember when the Buffalo Sabres were competent to start the year? Those days have long passed. Buffalo dropped five of its last six games and ranks 28th in expected goal share at five-on-five in the last 10 games. The Sabres are playing terrible hockey.
One of their biggest issues right now is generating offense. The Sabres are averaging 1.78 expected goals per 60 minutes in the last 10 games, good for 30th in the NHL.
It just so happens that the Seattle Kraken's bread and butter is suppressing opposing offenses. They've allowed 1.99 xG per 60 in the last 10, putting them just 0.01 behind the Tampa Bay Lightning and Calgary Flames for the best mark during that period.
They're making life easy on their goaltenders, which is probably why the Kraken have gotten quality starts from their netminder in three of the last four games.
Though the Kraken have performed better at home, they have a clear edge at five-on-five and should be able to suffocate Buffalo's rather lifeless attack.
I'd like the Kraken more if Aaron Dell started, but Dustin Tokarski playing for the third time in four nights is an advantageous spot, as well.
Bet: Kraken (-140)
Canucks (+105) at Canadiens (-125)
The Vancouver Canucks have won one of their last 10 games, and sweeping changes within the organization seem imminent. Backing them is a scary thought, I know, but I see value on this line.
For all of their faults, the Canucks haven't played that bad during this stretch. Their expected goal share is around 50% - sandwiching them between the Nashville Predators and New York Islanders - and they rank in the top 10 in Corsi For percentage at five-on-five.
Meanwhile, the Montreal Canadiens sit 25th in Corsi share and 29th in xG share during that same period. They've been particularly disastrous in their own zone, giving up 2.85 xG per 60 - more than all but the Philadelphia Flyers. They're horrendous at five-on-five, and their special teams are just as bad.
Factor in Vancouver's edge in goal - Thatcher Demko is one of the better young netminders in the league - and, even on the road, I think the wrong team is favored here.
Bet: Canucks (+105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Hockey is back following a one-day layoff, and you know what that means: shot props!
Despite an off night Wednesday, my record on shot totals this season sits at 35-22 for +13.33 units.
We'll look to keep the ball rolling during Thursday's 13-game slate.
Jordan Kyrou over 2.5 shots (+120)
Kyrou has been a highly efficient shot generator of late. At five-on-five, he ranks second among Blues forwards - behind only Vladimir Tarasenko - in shots on goal over the last 10 games, and he's recorded at least three shots on goal eight times in that span.
Now he draws one of the best matchups possible in the Blackhawks. They're allowing more than 60 attempts per 60 at five-on-five over their last 10 games and rank 28th in that category. Suppressing shots is not exactly Chicago's strong suit.
Kyrou is playing in the top six and on the second power play, which should give him plenty of ice to capitalize on this advantageous matchup.
Rickard Rakell over 2.5 shots (-120)
Rakell has missed half of the Ducks' games due to injury; however, he's piled up the shots when healthy.
He's averaging 6.2 shot attempts and 3.6 shots on goal through 10 games. That's very encouraging volume. He also finds himself in a dream matchup against the Senators, who can't defend a lick: No team has allowed shots at a higher rate over the last 10 games.
Rakell has generated at least two shots on goal every game this season and he's gone over the number more often than not. I like his chances of doing so once again versus this struggling Ottawa squad.
Bonus round:Andrew Copp over 2.5 shots (+135). The Jets forward has averaged a whopping 3.77 shots per game on the road this season and the Wild'sdefense isn't as stingy with Jared Spurgeon out of the lineup. There is real value here.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.