All posts by Todd Cordell

Flames, Avalanche to take care of business at home

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We split our sides and totals on Monday. The Senators were sunk by horrendous goaltending - Anton Forsberg allowed four goals on 10 shots - but the under of 6.5 cashed in Edmonton.

Let's look at a couple of sides that pop off the page on Tuesday as we aim for a mini-sweep.

Kings (+100) @ Flames (-120)

The Kings are playing well of late but are in a tough spot on Tuesday night.

Already without key players like Viktor Arvidsson and Mikey Anderson, they lost star winger Adrian Kempe in Monday night's game.

Thus, the team will likely to without two of their best offensive players, as well as a stabilizing defender in Anderson, while playing in the latter half of a road back-to-back situation. That's less than ideal.

Making matters worse, it'll be Cam Talbot between the pipes. His last couple of games were better, but his play this calendar year leaves a lot to be desired.

He is conceding 4.18 goals above expected, the fourth-worst output among all goaltenders with double-digit starts in 2024.

For perspective, Jacob Markstrom has saved 15.75 goals above expected over the same period. He should continue to excel against a fatigued Kings team missing weaponry.

The Flames are more than capable of giving the Kings a run for their money. They just beat the Jets, Bruins, and Oilers and continue to chug along despite all the trade rumors surrounding key players on the team.

Look for the Flames to extend their winning streak to four against the Kings.

Bet: Flames (-120)

Stars (+115) @ Avalanche (-135)

The Avalanche have cooled off recently, dropping two in a row and seven of the past 10 overall.

But I don't think they're playing as poorly as the results indicate. The Avs are generating quality chances at an efficient clip and rank sixth in high-danger chances per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.

They are, however, struggling to score. Only four teams are finding the back of the net at five-on-five at a lower rate.

The Avalanche aren't a super deep team, but they have as much firepower as anybody in the NHL. It's only a matter of time before they start to convert on the many chances they're creating.

I expect that to begin against the Stars. The Avalanche torched them in recent head-to-head meetings, scoring 19 goals over four games in the past 11 months.

It's also worth noting Jake Oettinger has not been his usual self this season. He owns a very mediocre .903 save percentage and has given up nearly three goals per game while playing behind an excellent lineup.

Playing behind a tired team at altitude, Oettinger is likely to be tested early and often in this one.

I think the Avalanche will break through offensively en route to a much-needed win over direct competition for a Central Division title.

Bet: Avalanche (-135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Can Couturier continue home-ice shot production? 3 props for Tuesday

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We swept the board with our player props Monday night, cashing a pair of overs and a fade of John Carlson.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more shot props for Tuesday's massive slate of games.

Sean Couturier: Over 2.5 shots

The Flyers have been a surprisingly strong shot-generation team this season, particularly on home ice. Their new captain, Sean Couturier, is the perfect example.

He registered at least three shots in 18 of 28 home dates this season (64% success rate), averaging a very healthy 3.6 shots per game.

Couturier's home outputs are drastically better than on the road: He owns a 33% success rate away from Philadelphia and averages 1.2 fewer shots on goal per game.

The good news for Couturier is he is at home against a Lightning team the Flyers might be fighting for a wild-card spot (the No. 3 slot in the Metropolitan is far from secured).

Couturier will be tasked with slowing down Hart Trophy candidate Nikita Kucherov. Given the importance of the game, and the fact the Flyers are off until Friday after this one, Couturier will no doubt get a full workload and then some.

He had six shots on eight attempts when the two sides met back in January. I don't expect that level of volume again, but Couturier should have ample opportunity to get a few pucks on net.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Gabe Vilardi: Over 2.5 shots

Vilardi has gone over his total in five consecutive games, four of which have come against weaker Jets opponents on the outside of the playoff picture.

He's facing another team that fits the bill in the Blues. They've conceded shots at a high clip all season long, giving up a lot of volume even when the wins are there.

The matchup at five-on-five doesn't get much better for Vilardi, as the Blues rank bottom five in shot suppression on the season and over the last 10 games.

Vilardi has also taken on a larger role on the power play. The Jets have run things through Vilardi more of late, allowing him to operate with the puck below the dots. As a result, he leads the team in power-play shots and attempts over the past 10 games, which raises his shooting floor and ceiling.

Vilardi recorded at least three shots in six of his last eight games versus bottom-10 shot-suppression teams. With another favorable matchup and a more significant role on the man advantage, I expect Vilardi to get the job done once again.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Nathan MacKinnon: Over 4.5 shots

MacKinnon is starting to kick things into high gear. His shot volume has spiked lately, with the superstar center recording at least eight attempts in eight of his past 10 games.

That is something of a sweet spot for MacKinnon, who has averaged 5.8 shots per game while posting a 62% success rate in games with at least eight attempts.

There's plenty of reason to expect another high-volume effort in this one. The Avalanche and Stars are among three teams duking it out for top spot in the Central Division. MacKinnon will see a heavy workload in this extremely important game for the Avalanche.

He should have 23-plus minutes against a team he has feasted on in recent years. MacKinnon recorded at least five shots in six of his last seven against the Stars, attempting more than 10 shots per game on average.

With two big points on the line and the Stars on the latter half of a back-to-back, MacKinnon is primed to continue shooting the lights out.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Back Senators to stay hot, fade offense in Kings-Oilers

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We split our best bets on Friday night: The Sabres took care of business in Columbus, but the Oilers couldn't convert a 23-shot edge into a victory against the Wild.

Let's dive into Monday's plays as we look to start the week off with a mini-sweep.

Senators (-120) @ Capitals (+100)

The Senators continue to quietly fire on all cylinders. They've won seven of their past 10 games and posted a 3-0-1 record over a tough four-game stretch in which they faced the Lightning, Panthers, Stars, and Golden Knights.

The Sens looks like a completely different team of late. Shane Pinto's return has made them deep offensively, and they seem to be buying into what Jacques Martin is selling defensively. They're playing impressive five-on-five hockey and showing great discipline. No team has spent less time shorthanded over the past 10 games.

That ability to stay out of the box is important heading into a clash with a suddenly hot Alex Ovechkin, who's feasted on the power play throughout his career.

While the playoffs remain a massive long shot, Ottawa's strung together enough positive results that the postseason is at least in the realm of possibility. That should keep the players motivated, especially against a team in the wild-card mix.

With a big advantage in the middle of the ice and a lot more team speed, the Senators should be able to do some damage at even strength.

If they can continue to stay out of the box and draw a penalty or two more than they take, it'll be very difficult for the Capitals to get a result.

Bet: Senators (-120)

Kings (+130) @ Oilers (-150)

Targeting an under is always scary when Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the Oilers are in the mix - but it's a plunge I'm going to take on Monday night.

The Kings and Oilers are as good as it gets at limiting shots at even strength. Over the past 10 games, they rank second and third in that category, respectively.

The clubs have played a lot of low-event games against each other of late. Their last four regular-season matchups featured an average of 3.75 goals.

We probably shouldn't expect this game to be much different, even though the Oilers conceded an abnormal 16 goals in their three-game skid.

Stuart Skinner has sprung a leak after playing over his head for months, so tightening the screws defensively and helping the goaltender will no doubt be a point of emphasis in Edmonton.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, never needs to be incentivized to play low-event hockey. The Kings' top priority on any given night is slowing down the opponent as opposed to generating offense themselves. That will hold true against McDavid.

L.A. can also feel pretty comfortable - relatively speaking - that it'll get saves when needed. David Rittich has saved 11.75 goals above expectation since the calendar flipped - the fifth-highest rate in the league.

I'm expecting a 3-2 or 4-2 game here, tucking us in under a hefty 6.5-goal total.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Backing Kane, Heiskanen to get pucks on net Monday night

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We have a small four-game slate in front of us to begin the week. Let's look at a few props that stand out as we hope to start things off on a high note.

John Carlson: Under 2.5 shots

Carlson has gone over his total just 36% of the time this season and in only four of his last 15 games (27%).

He's averaged only 5.2 shot attempts per game on the year. Although that volume sounds fine on the surface, it's not great for defensemen.

They routinely have to shoot through multiple layers of defenders and from far greater distances, which results in a much higher percentage of their shots being blocked or missing the net relative to forwards.

This has led to very low outputs when Carlson doesn't have a ceiling game in terms of attempts. Carlson has generated just 1.6 shots on goal over the 35 games he's attempted five shots or fewer this season.

There's plenty of reason to believe Carlson is heading for such a game versus the Senators. They've been one of the best shot-suppression teams in the league over the last month. Ottawa has also done a terrific job staying out of the penalty box, spending just 2:42 shorthanded per game in February.

The Sens aren't giving up many shots, nor are they taking many penalties and allowing opposing stars to be put in easy offensive situations.

This is a matchup I expect Carlson to struggle in.

Odds: -114 (playable to -135)

Miro Heiskanen: Over 2.5 shots

Heiskanen needs two things to have success shooting the puck: home ice and a weak opposing defense. Both boxes are checked tonight as the Stars host the Islanders.

We'll start with home ice. Heiskanen has averaged 6.4 shot attempts per game in Dallas compared to just 4.8 on the road. Given the difficulty of getting shots through consistently, volume is especially important for defenders. Heiskanen generates it at home.

He also has a mouthwatering matchup against the Islanders. Although they have tightened the screws a little bit under new head coach Patrick Roy, they're still a very targetable team.

They rank 31st in shots against per game to defensemen this season, conceding more than all but the Sharks. They also rank inside the bottom 10 over the past 10 games.

Likely to log over 24 minutes in a juicy matchup, Heiskanen is primed for an active night shooting the puck.

Odds: -102 (playable to -120)

Evander Kane: Over 2.5 shots

Kane is one of the more consistent shooters in the NHL. He's averaged 3.1 shots on goal and gone over his total in 63% of his appearances this season.

His numbers spike further in Edmonton, where Kane averages 3.3 shots per night and has posted a remarkably strong 67% success rate.

What I love about Kane is matchups don't seem to matter to him in the slightest. Whether he's facing top-10 or bottom-10 defenses in terms of suppressing shots, the volume and success rates are nearly identical.

That's very noteworthy heading into a game versus the Kings. They play a slower brand of hockey and have been excellent at limiting shots for years. That hasn't seemed to impact Kane. Playoffs included, he's recorded three or more shots in 16 of 19 games versus Los Angeles over the past couple of seasons.

Odds: -145 (playable to -160)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Oilers to rebound vs. Wild on Friday night

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Although there are only three games on the board Friday night, a couple of sides still pop off the page. Let's dive in.

Sabres (-140) @ Blue Jackets (+120)

The Blue Jackets are having a miserable time defensively. They've allowed just under 33 shots per game this month and are giving up real quality as well. Only two teams - the Sharks and Predators - have conceded more expected goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.

Their metrics would be concerning under any circumstances. That the best team they've faced in that span sits 13th in the NHL - and three of the five games were against clubs nowhere close to a playoff position - only makes matters worse.

Columbus is putting a lot on its goaltenders, and there isn't reason to believe they can hold up.

Elvis Merzlikins has allowed at least three goals in seven of eight starts in 2024. He also gave up two goals on two shots during his short cameo against a horrible Ducks team.

Daniil Tarasov owns a .881 save percentage and has allowed upward of four goals per game this season.

The Blue Jackets just can't get reliable saves, something they need with how many shots and chances they're giving up.

For all the Sabres' faults, they've looked a lot better of late. They've generated 33.4 shots on goal per game since the calendar flipped, good for fourth most in the NHL during that span.

The team has also gotten consistently excellent goaltending from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who sits second in the NHL in goals saved above expected in 2024.

The Sabres are likely to heavily test the Blue Jackets' subpar goaltending. With an in-form UPL at the other end, this is a spot where Buffalo should take care of business.

Bet: Sabres (-140)

Wild (+155) @ Oilers (-185)

The Oilers are firing on all cylinders offensively. They've scored 26 goals over the last five games and are full value for it, ranking third in high-danger chances during that span.

With weapons like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Co., the Oilers don't need a ton of opportunities to find the back of the net. That they're generating chances at such an extreme rate makes them borderline unstoppable.

Filip Gustavsson likely won't be up to the task. His game has fallen off a cliff relative to where it was a year ago, and he's showing no signs of improvement.

Gustavsson has allowed 10.44 goals above expectation since Jan. 1, the most of all NHL netminders. The Wild have often managed to outscore his struggles, but getting into a track meet with the Oilers is unlikely to end well.

Minnesota has also struggled mightily to stay out of the penalty box of late. Parading to the bin would be a recipe for disaster against this lethal Oilers power play, which generates chances at a higher clip than any other team.

This is a big step up in class for the Wild, whose recent success doesn't look as impressive when factoring in competition.

Their wins this month have come against the Blackhawks, Coyotes, Penguins, an injury-battered Golden Knights team, and the Canucks in a game they scored on eight of 25 shots against a backup.

Look for the Oilers to flex their muscles inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Oilers in regulation (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Trust 2 Connors: McDavid headlines trio of Friday bets

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There are only three games on the docket for a quiet Friday night in the NHL. Let's take a closer look at a few of the best ways to attack them.

Kyle Connor: Over 3.5 shots

Connor has played in only 38 games this season due to injury. He still leads the Jets in goals and expected goals and is right on the tail of Nikolaj Ehlers - who's played 54 games - in terms of shots on goal.

Connor is clearly the focal point of the offense at even strength, as well as on the power play.

As a result, his shot-generation outputs have been very consistent. The longest Connor has gone without recording four shots is three straight games, which just so happens to be the streak he's riding right now.

Connor is in a very good spot to snap out of it on Friday night. The Blackhawks are a horrendous five-on-five team that spends a lot of time chasing in the defensive zone. That generally leads to high opposing shot totals - especially for wingers.

The Blackhawks rank dead last in shots allowed versus wingers over the past 10 games. No team is giving up more to the position.

Connor has gone quiet of late, scoring in just two of the past 11 games while going under his shot total in five of six. This is a great matchup for him to snap out of this funk and get back on track.

Odds: +107 (playable to -125)

Seth Jones: Under 2.5 shots

Jones hasn't enjoyed much success shooting the puck. He's averaged just 2.3 shots per game this season and failed to clear his line 62% of the time.

Although Jones plays a ton of minutes, that shouldn't be surprising. The Blackhawks just don't have many players who can help the team transition to the offensive zone, let alone make something happen when they get there. Jones has to spend the bulk of his time defending, which will no doubt be the case against the Jets.

The Jets have done a great job of suppressing shots all season long, and that continues to be the case. They've been especially hard on opposing defensemen.

Winnipeg has conceded just 6.4 shots on goal per game to defenders over the last 10, one of the best marks in the NHL.

That's bad news for Jones, who's struggled to generate much against the Jets since Rick Bowness took over as head coach. Jones has recorded only seven shots over four games while posting mediocre attempt numbers.

Odds: -150 (playable to -160)

Connor McDavid: Over 0.5 power-play points

The Wild have played very good hockey of late, but they're still vulnerable in one key area: the penalty kill.

It's not so much that they've struggled in undermanned situations; the team simply can't stay out of the box.

The Wild have paraded to the sin bin on a nightly basis, with only the Kings spending more time shorthanded over the last 10 games.

Taking penalties is a recipe for disaster against the Oilers. Led by McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard, the Oilers possess the league's most dangerous power play. They lead the league in expected goals generation and sit third in terms of goals per minute. They're lethal.

McDavid is the team's leader in assists and points on the power play and is as puck-dominant as anybody in the offensive zone. Almost every possession runs through him, offering ample opportunity to get involved in the buildup of goals.

With team discipline an issue, the Wild will no doubt take their share of penalties trying to slow down the high-flying Oilers. Look for McDavid and Co. to take advantage at least once.

Odds: +110 (playable to -115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Will the Kings’ streak continue? Targeting 2 teams on Thursday

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We split our best bets on Wednesday night. The Blue Jackets and Ducks predictably found themselves in an offensive explosion, but unfortunately, the Oilers couldn't beat the Bruins in overtime.

Let's take a look at a couple of plays that pop off the page Thursday night as we look for a mini-sweep.

Canucks (-125) @ Kraken (+105)

The Canucks have dropped three in a row, but I don't think there's much cause for concern.

They mostly played well against a strong Jets team, generating nearly 40 shots, with Vezina favorite Connor Hellebuyck being the difference.

The Canucks followed that up by losing to a red-hot Wild team in a game Casey DeSmith conceded eight goals on just 25 shots.

Lastly, they lost 3-1 - with an empty-netter - in a hotly contested game against a contending Avalanche team.

I happen to think the Canucks are still a very good team and deserve to be favored more heavily in this spot.

The Kraken are a poor offensive team. They rank 28th in goals per game and struggle to convert on the chances they do get.

Despite getting some bodies back up front, the Kraken still sit 30th in total shooting percentage this month.

That doesn't bode well for their chances of success against the Canucks. They don't give up many shots, and Thatcher Demko is as good as it gets when it comes to stopping them.

The Kraken will need to be efficient with their chances, something they struggle with at the best of times. I don't see that changing against a netminder who's saved more than 25 goals above expectation this season.

Bet: Canucks (-125)

Predators (+130) @ Kings (-150)

Are the Kings back? It sure seems that way. They've won five of six games this month and posted sparkling numbers across the board.

They've controlled 56% of the expected goals share at five-on-five, which is one of the best marks in the league.

Excluding an absolute clunker against the Sabres, they've conceded only seven goals over five wins. They blanked the Oilers 4-0, held a healthier Devils squad to just one goal, beat the Bruins, and conceded just two total goals over the past two games.

The Kings are starting to get contributions throughout the lineup. Rookie blue-liner Brandt Clarke is starting to make game-breaking plays that show why he was drafted so highly. Quinton Byfield is emerging as a star in the league, while Pierre-Luc Dubois is finally starting to produce at the level expected.

So long as the Kings get good goaltending - and David Rittich is giving them that right now - they're a handful to deal with.

I think they're going to cause a world of problems for the Predators in this spot. The Preds rank 28th in expected goals share at five-on-five in February. They'll likely get heavily outshot by the Kings in this matchup.

That's problematic, given the level of goaltending we're seeing in Nashville. The Predators have conceded at least four goals in six of the past eight games. They simply can't keep the puck out.

Look for Los Angeles to extend its winning streak to five games - and do so inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Kings in regulation (+100)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Point to capitalize vs. porous Capitals defense at home

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We had a bounce-back night with our player props, falling one Auston Matthews shot shy of a sweep.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more shot totals for a monster Thursday slate.

Dylan Larkin: Over 2.5 shots

Larkin has been a steady shot-generator all season long. He's averaged 3.1 shots on goal per game and gone over his total a whopping 65% of the time.

While we've seen a bit of a dip in his outputs of late, that appears to be matchup-related. Larkin failed to go over the number in four of the past five, but the opponents he faced in that span (Canucks, Flames, Kraken, and Oilers) are all low-event teams, excellent at suppressing shots, or a combination of the two.

Larkin finds himself in a much better shooting environment tonight against the Avalanche. They've given up 33.3 shots per game over their last 10 road dates, which is tied for seventh-most in the NHL. They're a much different team on the road.

The Avs also give up a lot of volume to opposing centers. They've allowed more than 17 shot attempts per game to the position over the last 10 games overall. Only the Canadiens, Coyotes, and Sharks - three rebuilding teams - have allowed more in that time.

With the Red Wings heavily reliant on their captain in the thick of a heated playoff race, Larkin should be able to get a few shots on net in this one.

Odds: -140 (playable to -150)

Brayden Point: Over 2.5 shots

Death, taxes, and Point at home. The Lightning star continues to chug along when playing in Tampa Bay. He's gone over his total in 21 of 28 games at home (75% success rate), including eight in a row and nine of the last 10.

The matchup doesn't seem to matter for Point, who's hit against top-of-the-league teams like the Panthers and Avalanche during this hot streak. He's consistently hitting while posting strong underlying volume.

Point has averaged a hair under six attempts per game over his last 10 at home. For perspective of how efficient Point is with his shots, he's registered at least three in 20 of the 25 games he recorded five attempts or more. That's an 80% success rate across all venues.

As a bonus, the Lightning recently moved Anthony Cirelli to the top line instead of Point. This adds more balance to their lineup and makes Point the primary target on his unit, with him no longer needing to defer to Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos to shoot the puck - at least not at five-on-five.

The Capitals are bottom-10 in shots against per game over the last 10 and are laboring at five-on-five. Expect Point to take advantage.

Odds: -134 (playable to -160)

William Nylander: Over 3.5 shots

We targeted the Golden Knights with a star winger last time out. Although Filip Forsberg didn't go over his number, it certainly wasn't for a lack of opportunity. He generated 10 shot attempts but managed to hit the net on just two of them. The process was there, but the result wasn't.

I'm going to target the Golden Knights once again with Nylander. The Golden Knights have allowed more shot attempts per game versus wingers than any other team over the last 10 games. They're giving up absurd volume, and there's no reason to expect any different moving forward.

Jack Eichel remains out, and now Mark Stone, one of the best two-way wingers in the sport, is injured and will be sidelined for the foreseeable future.

The Golden Knights will use the William Karlsson line - their best defensive unit - against Matthews, which frees up the Nylander line to go up against weaker lines that give up a lot on the defensive side of the ice.

Nylander registered seven shots on 10 attempts Wednesday night against a Coyotes team bleeding shots. I don't know that he'll reach those heights again in this game, but he should have little problem getting to four.

Odds: -118 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Oilers to best Bruins in battle of powerhouses Wednesday night

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Headlined by a clash between two of the league's top teams, we have a small but juicy five-game slate Wednesday night.

Let's look at the best ways to attack it.

Bruins (+120) @ Oilers (-140)

The Oilers have been the NHL's best team over the last few months and continue to be worth backing on a nightly basis.

Edmonton has as much high-end talent as anybody, and the process to match it. The club has consistently out-chanced opponents, controlling nearly 60% of the expected goals share at five-on-five in February.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know the Oilers - equipped with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, etc. - will win a ton of games if those guys are getting more opportunities to score than their opponents.

That should again be the case versus the Bruins, who have stumbled a bit lately. They've won just four of the past 10 games, and their underlying metrics are heading in the wrong direction.

Boston has posted a 48% expected goals share at five-on-five in February, sandwiching it between the Canadiens and Blue Jackets. That's not where you want to be as a contender.

The Bruins have it in them to be much better than that. They also generally have enough firepower - not to mention goaltending - to compensate when they're not grinding out those edges in chances.

But it's a tall order to ask them to do that against the Oilers. Boston doesn't have the edges in top-tier talent or depth compared to Edmonton, and it doesn't have the centers to match up. The Bruins' five-on-five process is also weaker. And the Stuart Skinner we've seen over the past few months can match the level of goaltending we generally see from Boston's great tandem.

With the Oilers playing such a well-rounded game and having home ice, there's value in backing them to take care of business Wednesday.

Bet: Oilers (-140)

Blue Jackets (-105) @ Ducks (-115)

Elvis Merzlikins started in goal Tuesday night for the Blue Jackets. That means they'll turn to Daniil Tarasov in the latter half of their road back-to-back.

Goals tend to come in bunches when Tarasov is between the pipes. He's conceded at least three goals in nine of 11 appearances this season, averaging a hair under four per game.

Tarasov owns a .877 save percentage and has allowed nearly 11 goals above expectation. That's no small feat considering Columbus gives up a lot of chances and expected goals.

The Ducks won't be mistaken for an offensive juggernaut any time soon, but they can score. They've netted three-plus goals in seven of the past nine games and are poised to do it again versus a struggling goalie like Tarasov.

Anaheim also ranks 28th in shot suppression and 27th in goals allowed per contest. It's a bad defensive team with up-and-down goaltending, and no club has spent more time shorthanded per game this campaign.

This is a good matchup for the Blue Jackets - who surprisingly rank ninth in five-on-five goals over the last 10 contests - to net a few of their own.

I see this as a high-event, back-and-forth affair, and I like it to go over the number.

Bet: Over 6.5 (-110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Back Matthews to continue dominance in the desert

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We had a disappointing 1-2 night with shot props. Aleksander Barkov started things off with an over against the Senators, but Filip Forsberg hit the net only twice on 10 shot attempts in Vegas, while Viktor Arvidsson didn't even complete his first shift of the game before leaving with an injury.

We'll take those losses on the chin and look to bounce back with three more props for a fruitful Wednesday card.

Tage Thompson: Over 3.5 shots

Thompson registered at least four shots on goal in five of the past six games, with the lone exception coming against a stingy Kings side.

There is every reason to expect continued shooting success Wednesday night in Montreal.

Thompson has Alex Tuch back on his right wing. That provides a boost to his shooting floor and ceiling, as Thompson generates five-on-five shots at a higher rate alongside Tuch than any other regular linemate.

He should be able to pile them up in bulk against the Canadiens. Thompson's line will see a lot of Cole Caufield and Montreal's top unit, and, although that line is piping hot offensively, it gives up plenty of shot volume at the other end.

It's also worth noting a good chunk of Thompson's shots come from power-play opportunities, and there will likely be plenty against a Canadiens side that leads the slate in shorthanded time per game over the last 10.

Thompson's recent success has come against teams unable to stay out of the box (the Panthers, Ducks, Wild, etc.). Those extra power plays help push his shot outputs over the edge, which I expect to be the case again in this one.

Odds: -106 (playable to -125)

Frank Vatrano: Over 2.5 shots

Vatrano is an absolute force on home ice. He has recorded three shots or more 20 times in 27 tries, good for a remarkable 74% success rate.

A lot of those shots came without Troy Terry, who was recently moved onto his line and whose impact is certainly being felt as Vatrano's shot rates are skyrocketing even further.

Vatrano is averaging nearly 14 shots on goal per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Terry on his line.

For perspective, Vatrano generated 11.31 with Adam Henrique, 9.21 with Ryan Strome, and 6.81 with Alex Killorn. Big differences.

With such a low shot total, Vatrano is a prime target at home against any opponent - let alone the Blue Jackets, who have given up shots in bulk all season long. Their top line is the only one limiting shots at a decent rate, and Vatrano should see very little of them.

Odds: -140 (playable to -150)

Auston Matthews: Over 4.5 shots

This matchup is as good as it gets, as the Coyotes have been an unmitigated disaster defensively of late, posting horrendous metrics across the board.

They rank 30th in shot suppression at five-on-five over the last 10 games and 29th while killing penalties. The Coyotes compound their PK woes by parading to the box more than almost every team in the league.

Arizona is conceding a ton of shot volume across all situations, and it just so happens a huge chunk of it comes from opposing centers.

The Coyotes allowed just under 14 shots per game against centers over the past 10 contests. For added color, only one other team (the Canadiens) has conceded more than 12.10 shots per game to centers in that span.

Matthews is one of the best volume shooters in the league and is pushing for 50 goals against his hometown team, a team that is bleeding shots to his position and taking penalties in bulk.

The stars are aligning for another big shooting - and perhaps scoring - night for Matthews.

Odds: -110 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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