It looks as though Montreal Canadiens prospect Jesperi Kotkaniemi has made quite an impression on head coach Claude Julien in his first NHL training camp.
Following the club's 5-3 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night, Julien discussed where the 18-year-old stands with just one preseason game remaining.
"It's pretty hard to not see him on our roster," Julien said, according to TSN's John Lu.
Clause Julien doubles down in English, basically saying management has a say but if it’s up to him Kotkaniemi is staying.
The 19-year-old is coming off an outstanding 2017-18 that saw him break Evgeny Kuznetsov's KHL record for most points by a player under 20 years old. Tolvanen recorded 36 points in 49 games, surpassing Kuznetsov's mark of 32.
Tolvanen entered camp with hopes of cracking the Predators' roster after he was unable to cement a spot last season. Although he joined the team down the stretch a year ago, the 2017 first-round pick had a rather unimpressive camp, failing to record a point in four preseason contests.
The team also announced that defenseman Brian Cooper was released from his professional tryout, but the club expects to send him to training camp with the Admirals.
Making the playoffs in consecutive seasons in today's NHL is no easy feat.
Each year, the cycle of teams to qualify features some fresh faces, and since we've already guessed who those newcomers will be,let's estimate who they might be replacing.
New Jersey Devils
Nobody anticipated that New Jersey would qualify for the playoffs within a calendar year of drafting first overall, but the feisty Devils shocked naysayers with a fast-paced attack, a collection of breakout campaigns, and an MVP season from Taylor Hall.
Hall's Hart-worthy effort was so dominant that his 93 points were 41 clear of Nico Hischier, who finished second in team scoring despite the former missing six games. Hall will be the central figure in New Jersey's offense again, but the gap in production down the roster is too vast to comfortably rely on the Devils squeaking back into the playoffs.
New Jersey certainly has some nice pieces outside of their MVP. Hischier, Kyle Palmieri and Will Butcher are all solid players, but even in last year's dream season, the Devils only eked into the dance by one point, fending off the charging Florida Panthers. Not to mention, a loaded Metropolitan Division will make it even more difficult for New Jersey to qualify in back-to-back seasons.
Colorado Avalanche
Michael Martin / National Hockey League / Getty
Just call them Devils West.
Mirroring New Jersey, Colorado came out of nowhere last season to claim the final Western Conference playoff spot, and like the Devils, did so on the strength of MVP-level play from Nathan MacKinnon. The 23-year-old's 1.31 points per game trailed only Connor McDavid league-wide, but a middling Avalanche team will need more than his individual brilliance to reach for the postseason again.
MacKinnon's linemates Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen also put forth standout seasons in 2017-18, but Colorado's output as a whole is underwhelming for a team that needs to stay afloat in the Central Division gauntlet. Last year, a 10-game win streak in the middle of the schedule largely inflated the Avs playoff odds. Beneath the surface, the numbers suggest a repeat bid is unlikely.
Even with one of the best lines in hockey on their side, at five-on-five, Colorado ranked 27th in possession at 47.57 percent and 28th in expected goals for percentage 46.29, according to Corsica. However, a gaudy PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) of 101.45 was enough to mask their flaws and erase the memory of a dreadful last-place finish 2016-17.
They have the pieces to contend soon - and could make another major addition with the Senators' first-round pick in their back pocket - but don't count on the Avalanche to be in the Western Conference playoff picture this season.
Los Angeles Kings
Andrew D. Bernstein / National Hockey League / Getty
The Kings are an interesting team.
Their core is strong, although not exactly young. They have a world-class goalie in Jonathan Quick and landed a major piece in Ilya Kovalchuk via free agency. So, what's holding them back?
Primarily, it's the pieces supplementing Los Angeles' nucleus. Outside of Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter, and Kovalchuk, the Kings lack impact players down the roster. That collection of players is by no means anything to scoff at, but with Dustin Brown's gigantic shooting percentage increase last season, factored in with a less-than-stellar bottom six, L.A.'s offense - which ranked 16th in goals for in 2017-18 - has to be better in order to contend in the Pacific. The Kings face the same problem on their blue-line, which apart from Doughty and Jake Muzzin, features some sizable holes.
Overall, the Kings have the pieces to compete if they stay healthy and things continuously fall their way over 82 games, but that's not exactly an encouraging diagnosis for a team looking to get back to the postseason.
The incident occurred early in the third period of Tuesday night's preseason game between the two clubs, moments before the Capitals scored their third goal of the contest.
ICYMI: Here's the Michal Kempny injury last night.. Happened on #Caps 3rd goal.. Certainly looked like a high hit by Robert Bortuzzo.. Kempny was smiling as he skated off.. Hope that means he's ok.. #ALLCAPSpic.twitter.com/i8KQjecSFH
Capitals head coach Todd Reirden said on Wednesday that the team will continue to evaluate Kempny for an upper-body injury, but the rearguard is believed to have a concussion, according to The Washington Post's Isabelle Khurshudyan.
Anaheim Ducks forward Corey Perry had surgery to repair meniscus and MCL injuries and his recovery timetable is 20 weeks, or about five months, the club announced Wednesday.
Ron Hextall says the Philadelphia Flyers are dealing with a matter involving forward Jori Lehtera and they have contacted the NHL about the situation.
“We have spoken with Jori Lehtera and the league office regarding the reports out of Finland, and will reserve any further comment on the matter at this time," the Flyers general manager said on Wednesday.
Ron Hextall offered “no comment” to every question involving Jori Lehterä, including whether or not the player is still on the roster. As of 11:30, he was on the official NHL roster.
Police in Finland have questioned Lehtera about his possible involvement in a cocaine ring, as Finnish news outlet MTV reported on Wednesday.
The 30-year-old forward, who has denied being involved in a crime, is one of 23 suspects in a case that centers on two kilograms of cocaine, according to the report. Some of the suspects were arrested at Lehtera's summer home this offseason, but he wasn't there at the time.
Lehtera was acquired by the Flyers in the Brayden Schenn trade at the 2017 draft.
These were the teams no one expected to qualify for the playoffs last season. But hockey gods be damned, they surprised us all and made the dance. Every year the postseason features a handful of newcomers. Here, we venture our best guess as to who those might be in 2018-19.
Florida Panthers
A second-half surge brought the Panthers within one point of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference last season, and they appear poised to build upon their late success and barge their way into the dance in 2018-19.
The team was sunk by a mid-season injury to goalie Roberto Luongo, who recovered to go 12-5-1 with a .930 save percentage down the stretch to give his club a chance. His health will be imperative for the Panthers to be in the playoff mix again. Florida enhanced its odds of a postseason berth with the savvy acquisition of Mike Hoffman to bolster a top-six forward group that also features superstar and new captain Aleksander Barkov, as well as Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, and Evgenii Dadonov.
However, Florida resides in a top-heavy Atlantic Division that could very well feature the conference's top three teams in the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs. The Panthers probably aren't cut from the same cloth as those powerhouses, but on the opposite end of the division lies a slew of teams much more likely to be contending for a lottery pick than a wild-card spot. Florida needs to feast on its weaker competition to qualify for the playoffs for just the fifth time in franchise history.
St. Louis Blues
Derek Leung / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Like the Panthers, the Blues missed out on the playoffs by a single point, losing five of their final six contests of the regular season, including a crushing winner-take-all Game 82 to the Colorado Avalanche. The skid snapped a six-season playoff streak, but St. Louis, on the strength of a highly active offseason, looks like a threat to compete once again.
After surprisingly shipping Paul Stastny to the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline, general manager Doug Armstrong got back on the horn over the summer and acquired Ryan O'Reilly. He'll join Brayden Schenn and free-agent signee Tyler Bozak to make up one of the deepest trios of centermen in the NHL. Armstrong also signed wingers Pat Maroon and David Perron to give his club enviable forward depth on top of a highly reliable blue line built around captain Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko.
The Blues' biggest X-factor is in goal, where Jake Allen will need to rebound from last season's struggles and a .906 save percentage that ultimately led to Carter Hutton taking over the reins as St. Louis' starter. If he can't, there could be significant trouble in the Gateway City. But if he can, the Blues have added all the pieces they need to contend in the deadly Central Division.
The surplus of transactions creates some uncertainty surrounding the Flames, but for the most part, their new additions should play a significant role in helping them rebound from an 84-point output last season and back into the playoffs. The biggest question is whether Hanifin can adequately replace Hamilton on the blue line, but otherwise, each of Calgary's forward acquisitions should help fix its greatest pitfall from 2017-18: offensive depth.
The Flames lacked much of an attack behind Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan on the team's first line. Neal could give that unit two elite finishers and create several enviable options down the lineup, which features mainstays like Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund along with a new mix of offensively capable players.
The Flames also benefit from a wide-open Pacific Division. Aside from Vegas and San Jose, there's a pack of middling teams vying to claim the third playoff spot, and Calgary appears equipped to be in the thick of the race.
The veteran Ottawa Senators forward was placed on waivers Tuesday.
Smith has three years remaining on the four-year contract he signed with Ottawa in January 2017, and the deal carries a cap hit of $3.25 million.
Smith could still be traded with the Senators retaining some of his salary, as suggested by Sportsnet's Chris Johnston. Failing that, he could remain with Ottawa at the NHL level, or be assigned to the Senators' AHL affiliate.
For the time being, he's sticking with the big club. Ottawa head coach Guy Boucher told reporters, including TSN's Brent Wallace, that Smith will play Thursday night against the Chicago Blackhawks on a line with Mark Stone and Brady Tkachuk.
The 30-year-old has spent his entire nine-plus season career with the organization, scoring 85 goals and 165 points while racking up 612 penalty minutes in 542 games.
He contributed five goals and 19 points last season.
For as long as the NHL's been around, debates about which players are better than others have almost always centered around goals and assists, accolades like Stanley Cup rings and Hart Trophies, intangibles like toughness and leadership, and more recently, gateway advanced statistics like Corsi and expected goals.
But what if you could take a deep dive into whether Connor McDavid is really better than Sidney Crosby using previously unknown comparison points like passes to the slot, offense off the cycle, and respect rating? And, what if these new player measurements not only helped decide arguments at the bar, but also dramatically altered how NHL franchises value players, and how those players evaluate themselves?
Well, these data points - and many others - may be available to hockey fans on a large scale as early as next year. NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly confirmed to theScore that a full rollout of player and puck tracking is penciled in to debut during the 2019-20 season.
The league has flirted with this new world since 2015, when it slapped microchips onto jerseys and inside two-piece pucks for All-Star weekend. Now, it feels like a breakthrough is imminent.
Research and development - most notably, the daunting task of finding the ideal technological method for tracking a free-flowing sport like hockey - has been ongoing behind the scenes, and will continue over the course of the upcoming season.
It will be a significant step forward for the NHL, as it joins the NBA, NFL, and MLB in the pursuit of tracking data that will both grow the game and help better understand it. Advanced stats, which are currently based on play-by-play and time-on-ice feeds pulled from NHL.com, have already altered the landscape. Tracking is expected to have an even greater impact on the sport.
The NHL data boom is coming. Below are the details on how it will work, and its potential impact on the game.
How does player/puck tracking work?
In August, Montreal-based Sportlogiq became the "official data supplier" of the Swedish Hockey League, meaning it will be the exclusive provider of advanced stats to SHL teams, broadcasters, and sports betting partners until 2021.
Sportlogiq already has a strong foothold in the NHL, as it works with 27 of 31 teams on various projects while appearing on select broadcasts. Though CEO Craig Buntin declined comment when asked about the potential for an SHL-type agreement with the NHL, let’s use the company - a major player in the marketplace - as an entry point into this subtopic.
Buntin's team has developed a platform that logs hundreds of on-ice events through an optical tracking system. This camera-based approach is able to identify the whereabouts of every player, the puck, and the lines on the ice. The framework is then fed to artificial intelligence, which records movements, tagging any and all relevant hockey events. Players and their interactions with each other and the puck can be assessed in a three-dimensional format for estimations on spacing, angles, and the like.
Sportlogiq tracking in the SHL / Screenshot via Sportlogiq
The cameras and AI work in unison over the course of a game, repeating the same steps thousands of times. Every breakout pass, every deke, every dump-in - all of the minutiae baked into every play - is cataloged, approved by a Sportlogiq employee, and then filed into a database.
Hypothetically, if the NHL adopts this type of technology, we'll be able to quantify any number of on-ice happenings - like, for example, Crosby’s ability to create time and space for his teammates, long considered one of his greatest gifts.
"He does so much good work down low and along the boards. How far does the weak-side (opposing) winger in the slot shade toward Crosby's side of the ice and does that present new opportunities for Pittsburgh to activate its D?" wondered Ryan Stimson, a prominent voice in the hockey analytics community.
"Are they stacking or are they bull-rushing him or are they boxing him out?" added Christopher Boucher, Sportlogiq's director of hockey operations. "That’s where we're headed on the defensive side of the puck."
What else can tracking teach us?
Stimson, who covers the Sabres for The Athletic and grew up cheering for the Devils, is among a group of fans who for the past few years have manually tracked slot passes, rebound shots, one-timers, and other underreported events.
Yes, there's such a thirst for new hockey data that people are pausing games to collect info - known as micro-statistics - essentially assuming the role of Sportlogiq. At their core, micro-stats are granular pieces of information that inform us on the process rather than the result. They capture what contributed to a goal, a shot, or a shot attempt.
"The reason I got into it is because I wanted to figure out how good of a passer Patrik Elias was," Stimson said of the longtime Devils star. "He was so, so good for so long. What’s the reason for that?"
McDavid's speed on Sportsnet broadcast / Screenshot via YouTube
It’s possible fans will soon have access to data like McDavid’s top speed, Shea Weber's slap-shot velocity, Erik Karlsson’s stretch-pass success rate, and Mathew Barzal’s nightly puck control. Within proper context, those can be very useful numbers, and another tool in the toolbox for analysis ranging from trivial and fun to in-depth and serious.
"For every interesting observation, another question or two is raised," Stimson said.
For instance, is Zach Hyman truly a great puck-retriever for his more skilled Maple Leafs linemates, or does the data suggest he’s merely league average? Does Tom Wilson hurt the Capitals by taking himself out of position to deliver big hits, or does the data hint that opponents act abnormally when he's in their vicinity?
Understanding and articulating what makes certain role players effective (or ineffective) is an area ripe for picking.
"Which players are good at simple things like moving the puck up the ice with possession, entering the offensive zone with control, and creating a scoring chance off that?” Boucher added rhetorically.
On the team side, a similar exercise may arise from these initial questions. For example, how often did the 2017-18 Islanders defend against two-on-ones and three-on-twos? Was that a quantifiably weak point for New York or was something else at the core of the team's dead-last defense?
That kind of inquiry can lead to better-informed fans, media, and hockey operations employees. We're already seeing the value of tracking in other leagues, although its overall day-to-day impact depends on the data's availability. (Case in point: The NBA has a tiered system in which some data is available to the public free of charge, more is behind a paywall, and the rest is exclusive to teams and select media outlets.)
Second Spectrum data on NBA broadcast / Screenshot via YouTube
Tracking in basketball has already outed the game's most frequent complainers and laziest All-Stars, while the overall swing in shot selection (3-pointers over long twos) can be at least partially attributed to the rise of analytics. Meanwhile, in baseball, outfielders have never gotten so much love thanks to catch probability and other new data highlighting the crazy athleticism and smarts required to play the position.
Storytelling, whether through traditional media, new media, social media, or a brand, has changed over the past decade and will continue to evolve across the next 10 years. The emergence of well-sourced statistical analysis (with the level of acceptance varying from sport to sport) is a gigantic reason why.
Corsi, expected goals, PDO, high-danger save percentage, and primary points per 60 minutes are only the beginning for hockey.
What does this mean for players?
Based on a handful of interviews, NHL players don't appear too high or too low on the implementation of player and puck tracking.
Most of them are vaguely aware of which data is capable of being churned out. Quite frankly, though, it’s probably not in their best interest to consume micro-stats on a regular basis. After all, they're paid to play hockey; not to analyze it the way a coaching staff and front office must.
"I don’t know much about it. I don’t really think about it much," Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly said. "As a player, I think you should focus more on whatever you can do to help your team, rather than your own personal advanced stats."
Puck, chip for World Cup of Hockey / Getty Images
A source within the NHLPA said the union supports player and puck tracking and sees it as a way to grow the game, as long as player rights are maintained. It's not a surprising stance - if all goes according to plan, tracking will generate hockey-related revenue to be split 50-50 between the league and its players' association. (And hey, who wouldn’t be excited about fewer goal reviews?)
"I don’t think it’s going to stop," Ducks forward Adam Henrique - who's quick to point out he's no analytics wiz - said of modern stats. "It’s going to be progressing and moving forward and everybody is going to try to find ways to grow the game, stats-wise. I think that’s part of the interest for fans. There's so many more advanced stats to look at. There's so much more detail that can go into the game for the viewer."
The NHL hasn't decided if it will use cameras or microchips - or both - to collect player data (the puck will almost certainly be chipped). If the league chooses the wearables route, or to mix wearables and optical tech, the players' union will be part of the discussion.
"I wouldn’t say we're leaning one way or the other yet. Both are viable options," Daly said of the league’s preferred tech. "We have a base level of knowledge where we can look at the strengths and weaknesses of both and try to find the right technology for us that is a more permanent technology."
So far, the league's encountered a number of roadblocks during its transition from testing at All-Star Games and the 2016 World Cup of Hockey to full-scale implementation.
One such roadblock is cost; the 2015 All-Star Game's chipped pucks were priced at more than $200 apiece. Another is accurate data; false starting would be a public relations nightmare. A third is the tech; if wearables are the way to go, the chips must be non-invasive for players.
The IIHF used cameras and chips earlier this year at both the Olympics and the World Hockey Championship, revealing skating distance, passing efficiency, and other micro-stats. Several players were perplexed and unsure of the staying power of the underlying numbers. Former NHLer and U.S. Olympian James Wisniewski went as far as saying, "It's just all cons. There’s nothing (positive) for a player ... All this is going to do is hurt you."
There's bound to be similar pushback in 2019 when tracking is rolled out for the NHL, especially from older players fighting for contracts. The league is trending incredibly young, with 30-year-olds looking over their shoulders a lot more than they might have in the past. Insert unbecoming data - such as poor speed or zone-entry numbers - and all of a sudden public perception wanes even further.
Offers could dry up. That 34-year-old third-pairing defenseman could be out of the league at 33 instead. For every player whose profile will be raised by tracking data, there's another whose will sag.
What’s the master plan?
Five years ago, there was a buzz around the NHL and its acceptance of advanced stats. The so-called Summer of Analytics had spit out multiple high-profile hockey ops hires - including Kyle Dubas (Leafs), Tyler Dellow (Oilers), and Sunny Mehta (Devils) - and it signaled a change of course ahead of the 2014-15 season.
Since then, there's been a steady climb up the mountain, with NHL teams, fans, and media members digging into analytics from various angles. Yet public access to ceiling-shattering data has remained out of reach - for now.
"We think unlocking this technology can certainly enhance the fan experience and the broadcast experience around our game and that will be to the benefit of the league, of the clubs, and of the players," Daly said.
Added Boucher: "What you’re seeing in the public sphere is results-based - shots and so on. It's great data, it's great insights and it's great work, but obviously the data set is limited in terms of what you can look at. What we offer is more (information about) the process."
iPad on Vancouver Canucks bench / Getty Images
In the grand scheme of things, we can't forget about the other type of tracking: biometric. The vast majority of NHL teams are already hooked on this evaluation method, working with sports science giant Catapult to collect health data from vests that players wear under their equipment during practice.
As a byproduct of sports science's explosion within the pro ranks, biometric data can elicit insights about fatigue, injury prevention, and more. However, wearing a vest, or a heart-rate monitor, is not mandatory for players right now.
Meanwhile, Daly said the league has no intention of making health info available to the public.
"I don't view biometric data, for the most part, to be something that we would ever utilize to enhance a fan experience, for instance, or a broadcast experience," he said. "I think that's much more personal to the players."
Meanwhile, player and puck tracking data, which sticks to hockey stats, is free game. And, while its potential applications seem endless, there are unknown aspects to consider as we wait for the polished product to be unveiled.
Will hockey’s frenetic pace and the interdependency between players water down tracking data and its effectiveness? This is not baseball, where there’s a batter, a pitcher, and time stands still. It's a completely different environment. Can the NHL tap into innovative tech that helps negate these potential issues?
Buntin thinks so.
"They’re looking at an optical solution combined with some hardware and I believe wholeheartedly that it is the most forward-thinking solution that I've seen in any league," the Sportlogiq CEO said.
The big-picture outlook features an opportunity to attract different, more statistically inclined fans, and to further engage the existing audience. For example, real-time analytics would improve in-game gambling by leaps and bounds. Puck possession and time on ice would be automated, not estimated, offering a baseline for improvements in available data.
In other words - for a league that's catching up in the data realm and on the global development stage, in general - the master plan is still being written.
"I think were all on the same page," Henrique said of the league and union, "where we all want to grow the game as much as possible."
John Matisz is theScore's national hockey writer. You can find him on Twitter @matiszjohn.
