The newest member of the Ottawa Senators took to Twitter on Monday morning to offer a heartfelt note to the Colorado Avalanche organization, his former teammates, the fans, and the only place he's ever played pro hockey since being drafted third overall in 2009.
Not only did the Sens lose Kyle Turris in the process, but they also gave up a first-round pick, a third-round pick, and their 28th overall pick from the 2017 NHL Draft, Shane Bowers.
Essentially, the Sens gave up two first-round picks and a third-round pick to upgrade from Turris to Duchene. The majority of hockey fans would agree Duchene is better than Turris, but is he a big enough upgrade to warrant the cost?
Since 2013-14, Duchene and Turris have put up similar numbers:
Stat
Duchene
Turris
GP
320
310
G
96
93
A
139
123
P
235
216
P/PG
0.734
0.696
Obviously there is more to the game than just goals and assists, though. Only so much goes into these totals.
Sometimes goal scoring has a lot to do with luck, which brings us to the wonderful world of expected goals for.
Expected goals essentially tracks shot type, shot location, and shot quality while a player is on the ice, therefore giving us a better indication of how sustainable a player's offensive numbers are, compared to a stat such as Corsi For, which simply tracks shot attempts.
Here are Turris and Duchene's expected goals for numbers since 2013-14 at five-on-five, per Corsica.
Stat
Duchene
Turris
ixGF/60
0.75
0.59
xGF
168.89
166.19
xGA
194.25
179.01
xG+/-
-25.36
-12.82
Duchene has the edge in individual expected goals for per 60 minutes, but both the Avs and Sens were expected to have negative goal differential while Duchene and Turris were on the ice over the last five years. Duchene's xG+/- is nearly twice as bad, though. However, the Avs have been significantly worse than the Sens in recent years.
Thankfully, Corsica uses what's called relative stats. This compares a team's numbers relative to when a player was, and wasn't on the ice.
Stat
Duchene
Turris
Rel xGF%
3.41
-1.3
As you can see, the Avs' expected goals for percentage was 3.41 percent higher when Duchene was on the ice. Ottawa's expected goals for percentage dropped 1.3 percent when Turris was on the ice.
While Rel xGF% is a nice indicator, it still really comes down to a team effort. Takeaways and giveaways can provide a better individual explanation as to which player does a better job at retrieving pucks, therefore giving his team more chances to play on offense, rather than defense. Given that both players are centers, faceoff percentage was also included, per Hockey Reference.
Stat
Duchene
Turris
Takeaways
205
147
Giveaways
153
174
TK/GV +/-
52
-27
FO%
55.5
51.5
From a pure individual standpoint, it is clear Duchene gives his team more chances to go on the attack. His ability to strip the puck will be especially beneficial in Guy Boucher's 1-3-1 trap, which specializes in counter-attacks.
When it comes to special teams, Turris has been the more productive player on the man advantage.
Stat
Duchene
Turris
PPG
19
21
PPA
30
38
However, when it comes to discipline, and drawing penalties, Duchene has been the more useful player (iPENT = individual penalties taken, iPEND = individual penalties drawn).
Stat
Duchene
Turris
iPENT
24
50
iPEND
74
60
iP+/-
50
10
Over the last five years, Duchene has provided his team with 50 more power plays than penalty kills, while Turris has only provided his team with 10 more.
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
The verdict
The expectation before this deep plunge into statistics was that Ottawa forked up two first-round picks and a third-round pick to upgrade from a equally productive - yet perhaps less exciting player - to a flashier player who passes the eye test.
As it turns out, all the underlying numbers suggest Duchene is the far superior player, despite his basic numbers registering similarly to Turris'.
Sure, two firsts and a third seem like a lot, but for a team that is clearly in win-now mode, this was a deal that needed to be made for Ottawa. Turris is a good player and a very solid No. 2 center, but Duchene's game-breaking ability puts the Sens over the top, and a much-needed change of scenery should only lead to more success.
Not only did the Sens lose Kyle Turris in the process, but they also gave up a first-round pick, a third-round pick, and their 28th overall pick from the 2017 NHL Draft, Shane Bowers.
Essentially, the Sens gave up two first-round picks and a third-round pick to upgrade from Turris to Duchene. The majority of hockey fans would agree Duchene is better than Turris, but is he a big enough upgrade to warrant the cost?
Since 2013-14, Duchene and Turris have put up similar numbers:
Stat
Duchene
Turris
GP
320
310
G
96
93
A
139
123
P
235
216
P/PG
0.734
0.696
Obviously there is more to the game than just goals and assists, though. Only so much goes into these totals.
Sometimes goal scoring has a lot to do with luck, which brings us to the wonderful world of expected goals for.
Expected goals essentially tracks shot type, shot location, and shot quality while a player is on the ice, therefore giving us a better indication of how sustainable a player's offensive numbers are, compared to a stat such as Corsi For, which simply tracks shot attempts.
Here are Turris and Duchene's expected goals for numbers since 2013-14 at five-on-five, per Corsica.
Stat
Duchene
Turris
ixGF/60
0.75
0.59
xGF
168.89
166.19
xGA
194.25
179.01
xG+/-
-25.36
-12.82
Duchene has the edge in individual expected goals for per 60 minutes, but both the Avs and Sens were expected to have negative goal differential while Duchene and Turris were on the ice over the last five years. Duchene's xG+/- is nearly twice as bad, though. However, the Avs have been significantly worse than the Sens in recent years.
Thankfully, Corsica uses what's called relative stats. This compares a team's numbers relative to when a player was, and wasn't on the ice.
Stat
Duchene
Turris
Rel xGF%
3.41
-1.3
As you can see, the Avs' expected goals for percentage was 3.41 percent higher when Duchene was on the ice. Ottawa's expected goals for percentage dropped 1.3 percent when Turris was on the ice.
While Rel xGF% is a nice indicator, it still really comes down to a team effort. Takeaways and giveaways can provide a better individual explanation as to which player does a better job at retrieving pucks, therefore giving his team more chances to play on offense, rather than defense. Given that both players are centers, faceoff percentage was also included, per Hockey Reference.
Stat
Duchene
Turris
Takeaways
205
147
Giveaways
153
174
TK/GV +/-
52
-27
FO%
55.5
51.5
From a pure individual standpoint, it is clear Duchene gives his team more chances to go on the attack. His ability to strip the puck will be especially beneficial in Guy Boucher's 1-3-1 trap, which specializes in counter-attacks.
When it comes to special teams, Turris has been the more productive player on the man advantage.
Stat
Duchene
Turris
PPG
19
21
PPA
30
38
However, when it comes to discipline, and drawing penalties, Duchene has been the more useful player (iPENT = individual penalties taken, iPEND = individual penalties drawn).
Stat
Duchene
Turris
iPENT
24
50
iPEND
74
60
iP+/-
50
10
Over the last five years, Duchene has provided his team with 50 more power plays than penalty kills, while Turris has only provided his team with 10 more.
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
The verdict
The expectation before this deep plunge into statistics was that Ottawa forked up two first-round picks and a third-round pick to upgrade from a equally productive - yet perhaps less exciting player - to a flashier player who passes the eye test.
As it turns out, all the underlying numbers suggest Duchene is the far superior player, despite his basic numbers registering similarly to Turris'.
Sure, two firsts and a third seem like a lot, but for a team that is clearly in win-now mode, this was a deal that needed to be made for Ottawa. Turris is a good player and a very solid No. 2 center, but Duchene's game-breaking ability puts the Sens over the top, and a much-needed change of scenery should only lead to more success.
While it's been well documented that Matt Duchene has wanted out of Colorado for some time now, just how long he's been waiting to be dealt has been kept on the down-low - until now.
Following the three-way trade that sent Duchene to the Ottawa Senators and Kyle Turris to the Nashville Predators, Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic explained that Duchene formally asked to be traded last year.
"Matt, last Christmas, he asked me if I could move him just for a fresh start," Sakic said, according to Stephen Whyno of The Assoicated Press. "I just told him: Be patient."
Duchene told reporters in January that he was open to a trade, stating he understood that it was part of the business and something that could potentially happen. Evidently it appears he was more than open to a trade.
In all, it took just under 11 months for Duchene to get what he truly wanted. Sakic, however, noted that Duchene is "relieved" and "excited to go to Ottawa," while reiterating the move was the best thing for the Avalanche.
NEW YORK (AP) Mathew Barzal had a franchise-rookie record five assists and Nick Leddy and Jordan Eberle each scored twice to help the New York Islanders beat the Colorado Avalanche 6-4 on Sunday night.
Johnny Boychuk and Scott Mayfield also scored for the Islanders and Thomas Greiss made 31 saves.
Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Alexander Kerfoot scored for Colorado.
The Islanders won for the sixth time in eight games and ended Colorado's winning streak at three games.
The wild night on the ice was nearly overshadowed off of it when Matt Duchene was traded from Colorado to Ottawa in deal that involved the Nashville Predators.
Duchene stealthy left the ice when team trainers were helping injured Avs forward Blake Comeau off the ice in the middle of the first period. Duchene left the arena in the middle of the second period, briefly speaking with reporters, before jumping into a black SUV waiting outside the Barclays Center.
The Islanders scored less than five minutes into the first period on a fluky goal from Mayfield. The defenseman skated from the point down to the side of the net, where Sven Andrighetto tried to sweep the puck away but inadvertently pushed it past his own goaltender.
Bailey was credited with the primary assist on the goal and extended his points streak to nine games.
Eberle gave the Islanders a 2-0 lead when he finished off a good feed from Barzal. The goal was Eberle's third as an Islanders and the assist extended Barzal's points streak to five games.
MacKinnon scored 40 seconds into the second period, briefly pulling Colorado within one goal. Leddy scored less than a minute later to put the Islanders back in front by two goals.
Leddy scored again moments later to give the Islanders a 4-1 lead. Boychuk scored off a shot from the point at 9:46 of the second period and Eberle scored his second of the game 1:23 into the third period.
Landeskog scored Colorado's second goal at 13:02 of the second period on a scramble in front of the net. MacKinnon recorded an assist on the game extending his multi-point game streak to four.
Kerfoot scored the Avalanche's third and fourth goals in the final minute of the game.
NOTES: The Islanders held a moment of silence before Sunday night's game to honor the victims of the terror attack in New York City earlier in the week as well as the victims in Sunday's church shooting in Sutherland Springs, Texas. ... The Islanders scratched defensemen Thomas Hickey and Adam Pelech against Colorado. Alan Quine was also listed as a scratch for New York. The Avalanche scratched defenseman Andrei Mironov. ... Sunday's game against the Islanders was Colorado's final one before leaving for Sweden. The Avalanche will play two games against the Ottawa Senators in Stockholm as part of the SAP NHL Global Series.
UP NEXT
Avalanche: Face Ottawa on Friday night in Stockhom.
After more than a year of speculation as to where and when the Colorado Avalanche would trade Matt Duchene, those questions have been answered. Ultimately it's the Ottawa Senators that landed Duchene, but not without a large helping hand from the Nashville Predators.
The three clubs came together to make a blockbuster deal that largely addresses the needs of each, but when it comes down to the nitty-gritty, some general managers make the grade over their colleagues.
Predators: A-
While they didn't get their initial target, the Predators have to be happy walking away with a different potential No. 1 center in the form of Kyle Turris.
In late June it was reported that the Predators - along with the Columbus Blue Jackets - had presented offers to the Avalanche in an attempt to acquire Duchene. While that trade never came to fruition, in Turris they get an equally capable center.
In fact, Duchene (0.74) holds only a slight edge over Turris (0.70) in the area of points per game over the last four years.
In return, the Predators sacrificed a second-round pick in next June's draft along with prospects Samuel Girard and Vladislav Kamenev, both of whom were second-round selections by Nashville in the 2016 and 2014 drafts respectively.
What might be most noteworthy to the Preds is that they completed the deal without giving up any of their top-4 defensemen and, after finalizing the swap, were able to ink Turris to a friendly six-year, $36-million extension. Even with all of their top guns signed through next season the club will still have more than $9 million in cap space.
Senators: C+
The Senators got their guy.
After reports that the club had been aggressively pursuing Duchene, Pierre Dorion was able to make it all work. The final price tag was Turris, prospect Shane Bowers, goaltender Andrew Hammond, a first-round pick in 2018, and a third-round pick in 2019, all for a player who has one more year on his contract at $6 million.
In Bowers, the Senators also sacrifice their first-round selection from this past June's draft. The team is able to rid themselves of Hammond though, who - despite his brilliance two years ago - was making $1.5 million while playing in the AHL.
It's a pretty penny to give up for Duchene, meaning it will be up to the team's newest member to prove he was worth it.
Avalanche: A+
Love or hate how Joe Sakic handled the Matt Duchene-trade saga, but what can't be argued is the incredible haul he was able to get for the former first-round pick.
In all, the Avalanche acquired three prospects, one goaltender, and three selections in the next two drafts.
It's an abundance of riches and one that makes it clear as to why Sakic waited so long to pull the trigger on a deal, despite how many were on the table recently.
Told there were at least 5 occasions where the Avs were close to a deal with Duchene in past several months. Past deals better? Never know.
The Avalanche get younger, remove their biggest distraction (though it doesn't seem to have impacted their play on the ice this season), bolster their prospect pipeline, and free up a large chunk of salary.
As with trades of this magnitude that include picks and prospects, it might be years before the true winner of the deal is known, but in the meantime one can't help but tip their hat to the Avalanche.
CHICAGO (AP) Charlie Lindgren made 38 saves in his first career shutout, helping the Montreal Canadiens beat Corey Crawford and the Chicago Blackhawks 2-0 on Sunday night.
Lindgren and Crawford were locked up in a scoreless duel before Jonathan Drouin skated through the slot and shot the puck into the left side of the net at 1:54 of the third. Drouin's third goal of the season stopped Crawford's scoreless streak at 173 minutes, 9 seconds.
Defenseman Joe Morrow added his third career goal at 7:45, helping Montreal to its fourth win in five games. Morrow blasted a slap shot by a screened Crawford for his first goal since Oct. 27, 2015, for Boston against Arizona.
Coming off consecutive shutouts against Philadelphia and Minnesota, Crawford finished with 33 stops in his first career regulation loss against his hometown team. He was 8-0-2 with a 1.49 goals-against average in 10 career games against Montreal.
With Carey Price sidelined by a minor lower-body injury and Al Montoya coming off a 19-save performance in Saturday night's 5-4 overtime win at Winnipeg, Lindgren made his first appearance of the season for the Canadiens. The Lakeville, Minnesota, native responded with Montreal's first shutout of the season while improving to 4-0 in four career NHL starts.
Lindgren got over for a great blocker save on Jonathan Toews with 1:40 left in the first. Toews banged a shot off the left post early in the second, and Lindgren gloved another solid opportunity for Chicago's captain with about seven minutes left in the third.
Lindgren also robbed Richard Panik with 15 seconds left.
The Blackhawks also went 0 for 3 on the power play after scoring with the man advantage in each of their previous two games, including Saturday night's 2-0 victory at Minnesota.
NOTES: Canadiens F Phillip Danault skated off gingerly after blocking Michal Kempny's shot with about four minutes left in the third, but returned to the game. ... Chicago F Artem Anisimov had scored in four straight games. ... Blackhawks D Gustav Forsling missed his third straight game with an upper-body injury. He could return Thursday night at Philadelphia. ''He's very close,'' coach Joel Quenneville said. ''I think we give him four more days is what we're looking at.'' ... Canadiens F Jacob De La Rose was inserted into the lineup in place of Charles Hudon, who was sidelined by an upper-body injury. It was De La Rose's first game since Oct. 20. ... The Blackhawks wore camouflage-style jerseys for warmups that will be autographed and auctioned off online to benefit USO of Illinois.
UP NEXT
Canadiens: Begin a six-game homestand on Tuesday night against Vegas.
Blackhawks: Visit Philadelphia on Thursday night.
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More AP NHL: https://apnews.com/tag/NHLhockey
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Jay Cohen can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/jcohenap
Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion is giving himself a little bit of insurance.
In order to acquire Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche, the Sens had to send their 2018 first-round pick to the Avs, along with multiple other pieces. However, if Ottawa misses the playoffs this season, and that first-round pick ends up being in the top 10, the Sens will have the option to keep it. In that scenario, the Avs would get Ottawa's 2019 first-rounder no matter what, according to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman.
The Senators currently stand at 6-3-5, good for second in the Atlantic Division, and are just one year removed from a trip to the Eastern Conference finals. Missing the playoffs seems unlikely, but anything can happen in this league, and it never hurts to provide yourself with some insurance.
After all, it was only this past offseason that the Philadelphia Flyers jumped 11 spots from 13th overall to second overall at the draft lottery. If that happened to the Senators this offseason without protecting their pick, they would surely be kicking themselves.
