Playoff Percentages: Maple Leafs primed for Maple Leafs-like collapse

Through the remainder of the regular season, we'll take a look at how the night's action impacts the playoff race, highlighting which teams' postseason odds went up or down significantly.

Think of it this way, Maple Leafs supporters: At least the final weekend of the regular season matters. A lot.

After play Tuesday night, with both Toronto and the Tampa Bay Lighting losing, the Maple Leafs' playoff chances were great, at 97.6 percent. Tampa's? Not so good, at 2 percent. Well, things have changed.

The Lightning, fresh off a 4-1 win in Toronto on Thursday, beat the Montreal Canadiens on Friday to move within a point of the Maple Leafs for the final playoff spot up for grabs in the NHL.

Here's what the math looks like:

Team Result Playoff Chances Change
Lightning W 4-2 11.5% +7.3%
Maple Leafs Off 81.6% -6.9%
Islanders Off 6.9% -0.4%

(Data courtesy: Sports Club Stats)

Toronto controls its own destiny, with home games Saturday against Pittsburgh and Sunday against the Blue Jackets.

The Lightning have one game left, Sunday evening at home versus Buffalo. Their only hope is that it matters.

The Islanders are in New Jersey on Saturday and home to Ottawa on Sunday.

Enjoy the final weekend of the season. And remember, Leafs fans: 81.6 percent is a hell of a lot better than zero.

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Lightning win again, move within a point of Maple Leafs

MONTREAL - Rookie Yanni Gourde scored twice, Nikita Kucherov got his 40th of the season, and the Tampa Bay Lightning kept their playoff hopes alive with a 4-2 victory over the Montreal Canadiens on Friday night.

Alex Killorn also scored for the Lightning. They need to win their final regular-season game Sunday against Buffalo and have Toronto and the New York Islanders lose to take the final spot in the Eastern Conference.

Dwight King and Artturi Lehkonen scored for the playoff-bound Canadiens.

The desperate Lightning faced a Canadiens team that had already clinched first place in the Atlantic Division and rested three banged up starting defensemen - Shea Weber, Jordie Benn and Alexei Emelin.

Kucherov could have had three goals in the first period.

The 23-year-old Russian was robbed by Carey Price 3:59 into the game, then froze the Montreal defense on a rush and hit a post from the slot at 11:42, but Gourde fired in the rebound to open the scoring.

At 19:50, Ondrej Palat flipped a pass into the neutral zone that the speeding Kucherov controlled with a quick slap of the stick before beating Price inside the near post.

Lehkonen found King coming off the bench with a stretch pass. He went in alone to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pads for his first goal in 16 games as a Canadien at 9:59 of the second.

Killorn got it back at 14:19 on a rush after Cory Conacher forced a turnover at the Tampa Bay blue line.

Lehkonen saw his pass go in off a skate at 4:36 of the third but, only 21 seconds later, Gourde was left alone on the left side and put Conacher's pass into an open side for a fifth goal in his last seven games.

UP NEXT

Lightning: Host Buffalo on Sunday in their regular-season finale.

Canadiens: At Detroit in their regular-season finale Saturday night.

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Watch: Vasilevskiy robs Radulov with brilliant desperation save

With their season on the line, the Tampa Bay Lightning watched Andrei Vasilevskiy make arguably his most important save of the season.

Vasilevskiy robbed Alexander Radulov of what seemed like a sure goal with a desperation save that saw him lose his stick in the process.

And with every passing game, Vasilevskiy continues to prove general manager Steve Yzerman made the right choice by entrusting him with number one status.

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U.S. defeats Canada in OT to win 4th straight women’s worlds

From almost boycotting the worlds to being crowned champions. Again.

Hilary Knight scored in overtime as the United States beat Canada 3-2 to win its fourth straight Women's World Hockey Championship and first on home soil.

A wage dispute almost kept the national team out of the tournament in Michigan, but an agreement reached days before the tourney opener made sure the three-time defending champs would take part.

The U.S. made it four golds in a row Friday, with each victory coming against their Canadian rivals. Check out the gold-medal game results since 2011:

Year Result
2011 USA 3-2 (OT) over Canada
2012 Canada 5-4 (OT) over USA
2013 USA 3-2 over Canada
2015 USA 7-5 over Canada
2016 USA 1-0 (OT) over Canada
2017 USA 3-2 (OT) over Canada

The Canadians are the defending Olympic champions, winning gold in Sochi in 2014, but it's clear the U.S. boasts the best women's ice hockey team in the world.

It was a close game, as expected. The Canadians took a 1-0 lead, ended up trailing 2-1 in the third, but forced overtime.

The extra session was all USA, as Canada was pinned in its own zone for lengthy periods, needing a goal-line scramble to keep the puck out of the net before Knight's winner:

The Americans would not be denied, though, with Knight going bar down to bring home the gold. She was a force, finishing with the winner and one remarkable assist.

Shannon Szabados was exceptional in goal for the Canadians, finishing with 37 saves.

Next year's Olympics are going to be fun. And all eyes will be on the women's ice hockey tourney, with NHL players not heading to Pyeongchang, South Korea.

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Watch: USA’s Knight sets up Bellamy with no-look, between-the-legs feed

Eyes in the back of her head.

American forward Hilary Knight made one hell of a pass Friday night against Canada in the gold-medal game at the women's worlds, setting up Kacey Bellamy with a brilliant no-look, between-the-legs feed.

Bellamy's second goal of the game gave the U.S. a 2-1 lead in the third period, but Canada did tie it up halfway through the frame.

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Malkin pranks Kessel with ‘The Phil Zone’ at Pens’ practice facility

The Pittsburgh Penguins are feeling loose ahead of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

On Thursday, with the Pens low on locker-room space in New Jersey and Evgeni Malkin not in the lineup, the club set up his "stall" in the hallway. And Phil Kessel was all over it.

On Thursday, Malkin had his revenge, setting up "The Phil Zone" at the Pens' practice facility, stocked with cans of Coke and Tim Hortons coffee.

The Penguins have more on the whole saga:

Malkin made sure to get a hot-dog reference in, when asked about the prank.

When Kessel was traded to Pittsburgh by the Maple Leafs, a Toronto scribe wrote that one of the ramifications of the deal was lost revenue for a hot-dog vendor in the city.

For Halloween in 2015, Kessel's teammate Bryan Rust dressed up as a hot dog, with a T-shirt that read "Property of Phil." Never gets old.

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Kucherov joins elite Russian company with 40-goal season

Nikita Kucherov is carving a path towards becoming one of the top Russian goal scorers in NHL history.

The Tampa Bay Lightning winger recorded his 40th goal of the season during Friday's game against Montreal, reaching that mark for the first time in his career just two months shy of his 24th birthday.

Related - Watch: Kucherov rifles 40th past Price

Here's the list of Russian-born players to reach 40 goals at age 23 or younger, per StatsCenter: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Ilya Kovalchuk, Pavel Bure, and Alexander Mogilny.

Pretty good company to be keeping, especially for a player drafted 58th overall (2011).

Kucherov also become only the second player to hit 40 goals in the NHL this season, with Sidney Crosby being the first.

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Watch: Kucherov rifles 40th past Price

Nikita Kucherov is doing his best to carry the Tampa Bay Lightning into a playoff spot.

The red-hot scoring machine became the second NHL player to hit the 40-goal mark this season, and he did so in style, charging into the Montreal zone and rifling a wrist shot past Carey Price.

The Lightning entered Friday's action facing yet another must-win game, and the fact they're in position to steal a berth is a testament to Kucherov's brilliant play down the stretch.

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Halak is the reason the Islanders are still in this thing

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It's a good story. It could have a fairy-tale ending.

The New York Islanders, thought for dead multiple times this season - most recently and especially after John Tavares was hurt a week ago, in a 2-1 win over New Jersey - are somehow still standing in the race for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. And they have Jaroslav Halak, their once-banished goalie, to thank.

Recalled from the AHL on March 23, Halak's won four straight, allowing only four goals during the streak, and if the Islanders do get into the playoffs - still a very slim possibility - it will be on the 31-year-old's back.

Now owning a higher save percentage than New York's starting goalie, Thomas Greiss, albeit in half as many games, it can easily be argued that Halak's earned the team's most important start. Check out the difference in where the Islanders are allowing shots from when Halak's in net compared to Greiss:

Halak

Greiss

(Images courtesy: Hockey Viz)

The Islanders aren't exactly helping Halak out back there.

Two games to glory

New York's got two games left, a back-to-back over the season's final two days. Put simply, the Islanders need to win both. And head coach Doug Weight ain't thinking about anything but Saturday night.

"The plan is Jaro's starting," Weight said about Saturday's game in Newark, according to Newsday's Arthur Staple. "That's the extent of it."

Greiss, with 25 wins in 48 starts, will watch from the bench with the season on the line. Signed to a three-year extension in late January, the 'tender appears to be the goalie of choice in New York moving forward (Halak still has a season left on his deal), though he's also 31. Problem is, he's stunk in the second half.

Greiss posted an .891 save percentage in February, followed by an .895 in March. Halak had a .925 save percentage in the minors, and has only lost one game since being recalled. And, hell, for what it's worth, he beat the Devils in his only start against them this season, stopping 26 of 27 in the game that Tavares was injured. Right now, you're damned right the small sample size matters.

New Jersey put three goals past Greiss on only 21 shots on Feb. 18.

Greiss has the better 5-on-5 save percentage, but has been poor on the penalty kill compared to Halak.

Goalie 5 on 5 SV% SH SV%
Greiss .919 .876
Halak .915 .907

The numbers are the numbers, but this couldn't have been a hard decision for Weight. Halak's the guy. He has to be.

Halak's redemption story continues. The Islanders are hoping the next chapter's written in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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Senators’ Karlsson expected to sit out final 2 games

The Ottawa Senators want to make sure Erik Karlsson is as healthy as possible for the postseason.

The Norris Trophy candidate is not expected to suit up for the team's final two regular-season games, after missing Thursday's playoff-clinching win over Boston with a foot injury.

"Most likely Erik will not play until the end of the regular season," Senators general manager Dorion said Friday, per NHL.com. "(But) if tomorrow was Game 1 of the playoffs … he would be playing."

The Senators sit second in the Atlantic Division and remain in a fight for home-ice advantage in the opening round.

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