Oilers Can't Give Up Home Ice Advantage In First Round

Leon Draisaitl and Darcy Kuemper. (Perry Nelson-Imagn Images)

The Edmonton Oilers are going to the playoffs.

That much is clear. Both The Athletic and MoneyPuck peg their playoff chances at over 99% with about three weeks left in the regular season. But the Oilers aren't looking to just make the playoffs, they're looking to go on another long run. That starts now, with twelve crucial games left to determine their playoff seeding.

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They're in very familiar territory, sitting third in the Pacific Division, tied with the Los Angeles Kings with 87 points with one more game played. The Vegas Golden Knights are just barely in sight with 92 points, while Vancouver and Calgary are miles behind as they battle for the final wild card spot in the west.

Thus, the divisional playoff format rears its ugly head once again, as the Oilers and Kings are on a collision course in the first round for the fourth consecutive year.

The Oilers have come out on top in the past three matchups, and it's gotten easier every time. Having beat the Kings in seven games in 2022, six in 2023, and five in 2024, it doesn't take a genius to predict a four-game sweep in 2025. The Kings seem destined to run into the wall that is the Edmonton Oilers yet again.

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But we all know that's not how the NHL playoffs work. Eventually, it feels like Los Angeles will have to break through. And they could have one big advantage they haven't yet had over the Oilers: home ice.

Going back to the playoff odds, both The Athletic and MoneyPuck project Edmonton to finish third in the Pacific Division behind Los Angeles. The Oilers have already seen what happens without home-ice advantage: they lost game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals on the road last year. What happens when they don't have that advantage against the team that knows them better than anyone?

Ideally, the Oilers just storm their way to the Pacific Division title, Vegas be damned. MoneyPuck gives them a 5.7% chance of winning the division, with the Golden Knights as heavy favorites with a 77.4% chance. So, not likely.

That same site gives the Oilers a 25.2% chance at finishing second ahead of Los Angeles. They need that 25.2%. The Oilers are more vulnerable than they were last season--they can't be giving out advantages to their biggest rivals.

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Count On Sean Couturier Lifting Flyers Over Maple Leafs in Shocking Result

Philadelphia Flyers captain Sean Couturier enters Tuesday with a three-game point streak versus the Toronto Maple Leafs

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Tuesday night is the ultimate opportunity for NHL fans, with a loaded slate of thrilling matchups that fans eagerly anticipate.

The game that sticks out is one with the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are looking to bounce back after blowing a 2-0 lead in their loss on Saturday to the Nashville Predators. They match up against a slumping Philadelphia Flyers, that has a league-worst 2-9-2 record over their last 13 games. 

For bettors, this matchup provides a chance to capitalize on some of our recent strong trends, like our 7-2 record on our last nine picks and our 17-6 record on our last 23 underdog picks.

All betting lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change. Hockey is a difficult sport to predict so please gamble responsibly.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers Best Bets: 

  • Flyers +1.5 (-128)
  • Sean Couturier Over 0.5 points (+118)

The Flyers have certainly been struggling lately with five straight losses and not giving their fans anything to be happy about. To make things even worse, they are getting listed at fairly decent odds to cover every night yet they've barely managed a 7-8 record against the spread in their last 15 games. 

This appears to be another spot where people can count them out and bet against a slumping team while riding with a hot one in the Maple Leafs, who are coming off a bad loss that they would like to make up for.

More NHL:NHL Insider Hints to Stanley Cup Contender Getting Former All-Star Back From Injury

This is a classic Maple Leafs spot if you've ever seen one as they are expected to win a bounce back game against a seemingly weaker team but the NHL has parody and any team can win on any given night. 

Nick Piccone (@_piccone) on XNick Piccone (@_piccone) on XCOOOOOOTS IN OVERTIME TIM SAUNDERS ON THE CALL (don't mind him calling every Flyers player on the ice Sean Couturier)

Philadelphia has a 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven games versus Toronto and this should happen once again with the help of captain Sean Couturier. The 32-year-old veteran centre has been decent during the team's rough stretch with seven points over his last 13 games. 

Couturier has a habit of playing his best against the Maple Leafs with 11 points in their last 14 matchups, including a three-game point streak heading into Tuesday. He should help propel a Flyers team that has won outright or stayed within a goal in five of their last seven trips to Toronto.

More NHL: Maple Leafs Closing Gap on Panthers in Atlantic Division Title Race

March Penguins Prospects Update: Forwards

Aug 2, 2024; Plymouth, MI, USA; USA’s forward Colin Ralph (11) battles for position with Sweden's forward Melvin Fernstrom (12) during the second period of the 2024 World Junior Summer Showcase at USA Hockey Arena. (David Reginek-Imagn Images)

There are some exciting developments down on the farm for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

With more talent in the system than they've had in recent memory, the Penguins have several prospects of interest to keep an eye on. We will take a look at how some of the organization's top forward prospects are faring right now in our March prospects update.


Rutger McGroarty

Oct 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Rutger McGroarty (2) moves the puck against New York Rangers defenseman Braden Schneider (4) during the first period at PPG Paints Arena. (Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images)

As we detailed in our February forward prospects update, McGroarty - after a brief NHL stint at the beginning of the season and a slow start to his AHL season - has finally seen his process meet expectations for production.

And that has continued in the month of March.

In 11 March games, McGroarty has five goals and nine points, picking up right where he left off in February. He does only have one point in his last four games, but the team - and his line - continues to roll.

Overall, McGroarty has 14 goals and 39 points in 59 games on the season. His second half should serve the WBS Penguins well as they vye for their first Calder Cup in franchise history, and his all-around game - adding in the production - is pretty much NHL-ready at this point.


Avery Hayes

Oct 4, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Avery Hayes (85) moves the puck as Detroit Red Wings defenseman Simon Edvinsson (77) defends during the first period against at PPG Paints Arena. (Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images)

Hayes - part of that line with McGroarty and Vasily Ponomarev - has been one of WBS's best players this season. He has 19 goals and 37 points in 49 games, and his play earned him an entry-level contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins that he signed on Mar. 13

The undrafted forward has worked hard to find success in professional hockey, as his unconventional path required some extra steps and injuries led to some inconsistency in 2023-24. But, all of a sudden, the 22-year-old right winger has solidified a relatively consistent placement on a line with McGroarty and Ponomarev, arguably the two most NHL-ready prospects in the Penguins' system.

Given that the line has largely been together since the Prospects Challenge in Buffalo last summer, it's certainly working in Hayes's favor that he's developed chemistry with those two players in particular. 

He has four goals and seven points in the month of March.


Ville Koivunen

Sep 21, 2024; Buffalo, New York, USA; Buffalo Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson (23) watches as Pittsburgh Penguins center Ville Koivunen (41) tries to control the puck during the first period at KeyBank Center. (Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images)

Like McGroarty, Koivunen has slowed down a bit in his most recent set of games, having just two points over the last 7. He has four goals and eight points in the month of March.

However, his 20 goals and 54 points in 61 games is tied for seventh overall in AHL scoring and is tied for first among rookies in scoring. He is also tied for third in goals among rookies.

Although he is still working on rounding out some of the details of his game, Koivunen's development this season has been nothing short of spectacular. He has adjusted well to the pro game so far, and he should see some significant NHL ice time in 2025-26.

He is also chasing WBS's franchise record for points as a rookie, which is currently held by Toby Peterson (2000-01) at 67 points. There are 11 games remaining, so it's a longshot - but never say never.


Tristan Broz

Sep 21, 2024; Buffalo, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins center Tristan Broz (26) takes a shot on goal during the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center. (Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images)

Broz was out for a good while due to mononucleosis to begin the calendar year, returning on Feb. 7 and picking up right where he left off prior to his absence.

However, he has been a bit slow production-wise in the month of March. Broz has just two goals and four points in 11 March games, one point in his last seven games, and five points in his last 15 games.

That being said, he has continued to develop his two-way game and his positional versatility. There has been a bit of a rotation as far as the team's centers and their placement in the lineup, as Broz has spent time as both first- and second-line center, and even some time on the wing. 

Most of the time, he centers a line with Koivunen and Valtteri Puustinen. Puustinen has five goals and 11 points in March.


Vasily Ponomarev

Nov 19, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins center Vasily Ponomarev (11) skates with the puck against Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Darren Raddysh (43) during the third period at PPG Paints Arena. (Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images)

After nearly getting to the point-per-game mark about a month ago, Ponomarev has gone cold production-wise. He has no points in his last six games and just two goals and four points in his last 14.

However, don't mistake this for Ponomarev playing poorly. He is still driving a decent amount of offense and playing responsibly on both sides of the puck. Like McGroarty was earlier this season, he is a bit snakebitten right now, but he's also been a bit more passive in terms of his own opportunities. 

The production will come for Ponomarev as long as he keeps playing strong all-zones hockey. He has a commitment to details that is advanced beyond most of his peers in WBS, and getting that monkey off his back will hopefully help him get his confidence back, too.


Tanner Howe

Howe began the season with the WHL's Regina Pats - as their captain - and was traded midseason to the Calgary Hitmen

And wherever he's been this season, he hasn't missed a beat.

In a regular season that has included skating for Team Canada at the World Junior Championship at the turn of the New Year, Howe had 18 goals and 46 points in 47 games between both teams. He will also be doing his best to lead Calgary to a CHL championship in their upcoming playoff run. 

The 19-year-old power forward - a second-round pick (46th overall) by the Penguins in 2024 - is developing a solid two-way game and certainly doesn't shy away from physicality. In fact, he uses phsyicality to gain positioning on opponents, which makes him a menace on the forecheck.

If his development continues on its current path, he could, conceivably, become an effective middle-six winger at the NHL level. He will presumably be playing in WBS next season, as his junior eligibility will be up.


Melvin Fernstrom

Aug 2, 2024; Plymouth, MI, USA; USA’s forward Colin Ralph (11) battles for position with Sweden's forward Melvin Fernstrom (12) during the second period of the 2024 World Junior Summer Showcase at USA Hockey Arena. (David Reginek-Imagn Images)

Fernstrom, 19, was acquired by the Penguins from the Vancouver Canucks as part of the Marcus Pettersson trade on Jan. 31. The right winger from Balsta, Sweden was a third-round pick (93rd overall) by Vancouver in 2024, and he was advertised as a raw prospect with a high ceiling.

His first full season in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) with Orebro HK has been a bit of a mixed bag, as he has registered eight goals and 17 points in 48 games. But he's also playing against much more experienced players, and his showing for the J20 Nationell - against junior-level players - resulted in 11 goals and 18 points in 12 games.

Last season, Fernstrom's 31 goals led the J20 league. 

There is still some growth that has to happen for Fernstrom, but there is some promise there. And Penguins' management is pretty high on this guy. There is a good chance he plays in North American next season.


Mikhail Ilyin

Ilyin, 20, is currently playing for the Severstal Cherepovets of the KHL, and he is making progress in his third season with the team. He saw games in the KHL as an 18-year-old, and he has also been seeing top-line minutes since then.

The right winger has seven goals and 30 points in 64 games this year, and his contract with Severstal expires at the end of the season. A 2023 fifth-round pick (142nd overall) by the Penguins, there is a chance he could join the organization in North America next season.

Ilyin will have to develop his skating a bit more - as well as his level of production - if he is going to be a regular at the NHL level at some point. But his playmaking smarts, passing ability, and the details in his game fill a lot of the gaps that the other deficiencies in his game leave.

Ilyin is certainly a work in progress, but he is definitely making strides. If his game can translate to the North American game, he may be a pleasant fifth-round surprise for the Penguins. 


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Former Ottawa Senator Jakob Chychrun Gets Massive Deal In Washington

Former Ottawa Senators defenceman Jakob Chychrun has signed an eight-year, $72 million contract extension with the Washington Capitals.

Mar 12, 2023: Former Ottawa Senators defenseman Jakob Chychrun (6) against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome (Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports) 

Capitals general manager Chris Patrick made the announcement today.

"Jakob is a proven, dynamic defenceman in the prime of his career who has established himself as one of the premier blueliners in the NHL," Patrick said in club statement. "His work ethic, skill set, and ability to excel in all situations at both ends of the ice make him a valuable asset to our team. He is a perfect fit with our culture and vision for the future, and we couldn't be more thrilled that he will continue to be part of our organization for the next eight years."

Chychrun, 26, has a career-high 43 points in 65 games with the Capitals this season. But simply put, it's the kind of deal that wouldn't have made a lick of sense in Ottawa - not unless the Senators chose to move out the likes of Jake Sanderson or Thomas Chabot, who both bring similar styles on the left side. All three move the puck well and excel at creating offence from the back end.

Sanderson and Chabot both make in the vicinity of $8 million while Chychrun's AAV will be $9 million, which drives home why Senators GM Steve Staios was pro-active in moving Chychrun last summer for Nick Jensen in the great re-balancing act of 2024. Chychrun is a fine defenceman with heavy local ties, but for a team like the Senators, it wasn't wise to give up a first-rounder and two seconds to bring in a superfluous asset.

In Washington, it's been a perfect fit, especially with their top defenceman, 35-year-old John Carlson, now starting to approach his sunset years.

"It’s been a great fit for me personally," Chychrun told the media back in January during the Caps' visit to Ottawa. "I think I’ve really enjoyed my time (in Washington), and when you’re winning hockey games, it’s always a lot of fun. So, you know, we’ve got a great group that’s been playing well with one another, and we’re just doing our best to get better each day now."

As a big fan of consuming raw meat, Chychrun's health regimen remains as "alternative" as ever, at least according to teammate Dylan Strome.

“He has a new thing every day,” Strome said on the NHL Unscripted Podcast. “I heard yesterday that he’s 'no light bulbs.' He’s doing candle-lit in his house now. That’s what his thing was yesterday. So, he was on to beeswax candles is what I heard is great for you. So, now we’re all bugging him about beeswax candles.

"Like, there's lights everywhere (you go). What are you talking about with no light bulbs?"

Sounds like the same old Chyc. It's good to see he's finally found a nice fit in a new (dimly lit) NHL home.

By Steve Warne
Site Editor at The Hockey News Ottawa

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The Hockey News Big Show: Who Is The NHL’s MVP Since The 4 Nations?

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Welcome to a new week of The Hockey News Big Show, where we explore some of the biggest NHL and hockey topics.

Here’s what Katie Gaus, Ryan Kennedy and Michael Traikos discussed in this episode:

Who Is The NHL’s MVP Since The 4 Nations? by The Big ShowWho Is The NHL’s MVP Since The 4 Nations? by The Big Showundefined

0:59: The battle for first in the Atlantic Division is tight. Which team needs first place the most? 

3:19: Would Matthew Tkachuk actually want to play against his brother, Brady Tkachuk, if the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators meet in the first round?

4:19: Which team do you think will ultimately earn the top spot in the Atlantic division?

6:43: The Blue Jackets announced Monday they activated Sean Monahan and Erik Gubranson off injured reserve. How will their returns affec the Blue Jackets’ playoff push?

9:16: The New York Islanders’ potential game-winning goal was disallowed because of goaltender interference. Was there interference or not?

11:29: Since the 4 Nations Face-Off, the top scorers are Roope Hintz, Sidney Crosby, Nick Suzuki, Robert Thomas and Connor McDavid. Who has been the MVP for their team most during this run?

14:01: McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are unlikely to play in any of the Edmonton Oilers’ three games this week. Can the Oilers prove they are more than a two-man team?

16:43: Montreal Canadiens defenseman Kaiden Guhle is travelling with the team on their four-game road trip. If Guhle comes in, who should the Canadiens take out?

19:20: The Pittsburgh Penguins' latest hot streak has kept them out of a guaranteed top-five draft pick. Has this "hot streak" actually done more harm than good for the Penguins?

21:56: Which team needs to change coaches?

25:25: Speculation has circulated for a while connecting Gavin McKenna - the consensus No. 1 pick for the 2026 NHL draft - to the University of Michigan. The rumor on the street is that Michigan could be offering something upwards of $100,000 annually for him to join them. How would McKenna making this move reshape the future of junior and college hockey?

30:21: The NCAA men’s hockey tournament begins on Thursday. The top four teams are No. 1 Boston College, No. 2 Michigan State, No. 3 Maine and No. 4 Western Michigan. Is the national champion in this top four? Who is your pick? 

32:51: The Washington Capitals re-signed D-man Jakob Chychrun to an eight-year extension worth $9 million per season. Good or bad deal?

34:31: Gavin McKenna closed out his draft-minus-1 season with 129 points in 56 games. Sidney Crosby is the only CHL player to score more in a D-minus-1 season. Could McKenna be the best prospect since Sidney Crosby? 

36:42: ESPN’s Emily Kaplan reported that billionaire Dan Friedkin has gotten into the mix as an ownership option focused on bringing the NHL to Houston. Yay or nay to an NHL team in Houston? 

38:53: The referees robbed us all of a goalie fight between Darcy Kuemper and Jeremy Swayman on Sunday. Yes or no: should refs try to stop goalie fights to prevent injuries?

 Watch the full episode here.   

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