Injuries to Artem Zub and Nick Jensen highlighted the Ottawa Senators' need for greater quality of depth on the right side throughout the 2024-25 season.
Their absences created opportunity, and to his credit, Nik Matinpalo parlayed his emergence as a credible depth option into a two-year, one-way extension carrying an average annual value of $875,000.
Despite the 26-year-old Finn's arrival, the reluctance of the coaching staff to move Matinpalo off the third pairing when faced with injuries underscores the necessity of finding better quality of depth. It is essential with the uncertainty of Jensen's recovery and timetable from his undisclosed lower-body injury and the impact it may have on his offseason.
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General manager Steve Staios discussed Jensen's injury at his end-of-the-season media availability before acknowledging that it could influence his decision to address the right defence position this offseason.
"I can tell you that just about every one of our players was dealing with something when you play as hard as they did," the general manager stated. "The commitment they've shown, they played through a lot, including Nick. He's an absolute warrior to continue to perform at a level with what he was dealing with.
"It's the character of the individual Nick, but all of them. I'm not going to come out with any list and speak specifically to injuries. But, he will get re-evaluated, and if it is something significant, that's definitely an area to to look at. We have some players coming up, but that'll be an area to look at for sure."
Should the Senators' front office look to add another quality defenceman, the free agent options will be limited.
The Florida Panthers' Aaron Ekblad headlines the class, but the relatively weak crop of free agents means his combination of age (29) and championship pedigree will make him highly sought after. The demand for him will drive his cost, likely pricing him out of the Senators' range, assuming he would be interested in coming to this market in the first place.
Another unrestricted free agent who will likely command some decent money coming off a strong season in Columbus is Dante Fabbro. The 26-year-old rearguard had his best season in the NHL, recording nine goals and 26 points in 62 games for the Blue Jackets.
As one of the youngest players on the free agent market, that consideration alone will afford Fabbro a real opportunity to earn a significant raise on this season's $2.5 million salary.
Regarding the Senators, I do not see a fit for Fabbro. Most of his value is tied to his puck-moving and offensive abilities, and with the presence of Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson and Nick Jensen, the Senators already have several of these types.
Adding size, physicality, and defensive aptitude to their top four should be the preferred route. A free agent like Nick Perbix could make more sense, but the risk is that he predominantly played a third-pairing role on an excellent Lightning team. HockeyViz's data show that his minor isolated impacts suggest he's closer to a league-average player than not, so the risk is overpaying for a defenceman who could be worse playing an elevated role on a weaker team.
The rest of the unrestricted free agent options are underwhelming, which will pressure the Senators to make a trade and fill that void.
Local talent Mackenzie Weegar would be a pipe dream if the Senators could pry him out of Calgary, but a Flames defenceman they should avoid is Rasmus Andersson. The 28-year-old Swede will enter the 2025-26 season in the final year of his six-year contract, carrying a $4.55 million cap hit.
Calgary is known for its 'Sea of Red', but a close inspection of Andersson's underlying metrics reveals its own sea of red.
Andersson played with a broken fibula down the stretch last season, which would have explained his horrendous metrics, but Andersson's defensive metrics have cratered in recent seasons. Evolving-Hockey's 'total defence' metric (DEF) combines all of a player's defensive contributions at five-on-five and shorthanded into a single value. This proprietary metric shows that Andersson has not created positive defensive value since the 2021-22 season.
His performance while playing hurt could help the Senators buy low, but if Andersson's defensive metrics continue to suffer, it would put the team in a difficult position. The Senators already have one of the thinnest farm systems in the league, so they can ill afford to trade prospect capital or valuable draft currency for a player who will not address a need.
If the Senators are going to move that capital, they would be better suited moving picks for more predictable veterans like Connor Murphy or Andrew Peeke. Alternatively, they could target younger options who could grow with this core, like Simon Nemec or a Jordan Spence (who, admittedly, is a smaller puck-moving type who relies on skating and his stick to defend well).
While researching prospective defencemen to target, one of the things that struck me was how many organizations are willing to use defencemen on their off-side. One solution for the Senators could be to use Tyler Kleven in this capacity, freeing them from using resources to bring in a top-four defenceman.
Kleven has experience playing his off-side from his time at the University of North Dakota. The maturation and growth that he displayed down the stretch and into the postseason was remarkable. He was already one of the team's best defenders, but watching his poise and play with the puck improve markedly leaves me wondering whether or not he could thrive in this role if given the opportunity.
The Senators could elevate Kleven and sign an excellent defender like Jon Merrill, giving the Senators three strong pairings.
If the Senators elect to acquire a right-shot defenceman, however, there is an option that they should consider pursuing.
Why 2024-25 Was The Best Season Yet For Senators Centre Tim StützleOttawa Senators centre Tim Stützle just enjoyed the best season of his NHL career.
If you are a regular viewer of the 'Coming in Hot Podcast' and saw yesterday's episode, you will have seen me mention the name of Michael Kesselring.
The 25-year-old right-shot defenceman stands at 6'5" and 216 lbs. He registered seven goals and 29 points in 82 games while averaging 17:41 of ice time per game. Kesselring finished tied for 32nd amongst NHL defencemen in blocked shots with 124 while tying for 69th in hits with 87.
His most iconic NHL moment occurred during a tilt in which the Maple Leafs' Simon Benoit attempted a Superman punch, but Kesselring possesses a nice mix of traditional hockey stats and analytics.
Although he played almost exclusively with noted analytics darling and legendary Senators defenceman Ian Cole, Kesselring's defensive numbers were strong.
When Kesselring was on the ice at five-on-five, Utah generated 53.91 percent of shots (CF%), 53.79 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 56.47 percent of the goals (GF%), and 54.05 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) per NaturalStatTrick.
According to HockeyViz's data, Utah was a stronger defensive team with Kesselring on the ice than off it.
Evolving-Hockey's data substantiate Kesselring's defensive gains. According to their DEF metric, Kesselring posted his first positive season of defensive value, accumulating the second-highest DEF among Utah's regular defencemen behind Olli Maata.
Advanced Hockey Stats also recognized his defensive improvements.
Kesselring is entering the last year of his two-year contract, worth a real and average annual value of $1.4 million. He has one year left of restricted free agent status before he can become an unrestricted free agent, meaning, he should have some negotiating leverage on his next deal.
It may also represent the last opportunity to acquire Kesselring before his value and price tag go up significantly.
If the belief is that his offensive value can be preserved while his defensive aptitude continues to trend up, he could be an interesting target for consideration.
Given the alternatives, it may not be a bad bet.
Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News Ottawa
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