The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars are on another collision course.
The Oilers advanced to the Western Conference final after beating the Vegas Golden Knights in five games with a 1-0 overtime victory Wednesday night. The Dallas Stars eliminated the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets on Saturday night with an overtime win in Game 6.
Last season, the Stars and Oilers squared off in the Western Conference final, with the Oilers winning the series 4-2. Both squads had the makings of Cup champions last year, but they both missed out, as Edmonton lost a historic Game 7 in the final against the Florida Panthers after initially falling 3-0 in the series.
That said, the Oilers and Stars aren’t exactly like last year’s versions. Far from it.
Dallas now has star right winger Mikko Rantanen and veteran center Mikael Granlund, who have combined to produce 13 goals – including three game-winners – and 26 points in 13 playoff games.
Rantanen, of course, was the NHL’s best trade-deadline acquisition, and the price the Stars paid for Granlund (a first-round pick and a conditional fourth-rounder that becomes a third-rounder if Dallas makes it to the Cup final) was not insignificant. But given that three of Granlund’s four goals this post-season came in the Stars’ 3-1 Game 4 win over Winnipeg, they’d say that price turned out to be well worth it for them.
The Oilers, on the other hand, lost left winger Dylan Holloway and defenseman Philip Broberg to St. Louis and left winger Warren Foegele to the Los Angeles Kings, but they now have left winger Vasily Podkolzin, right winger Viktor Arvidsson, right winger Kasperi Kapanen and left winger Trent Frederic, as well as defenseman Jake Walman and a healthier Evander Kane than he was in last year's post-season.
Edmonton still has superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but the Oilers’ overall depth is considerably better, and it was the reason they were able to beat the Golden Knights with authority.
The stats also reveal how the Oilers and Stars have evolved from last season to this season.
The Oilers currently have the NHL’s best goals-for average of any remaining playoff team, with 3.91. But they’ve allowed an average of 3.09 goals against, which is the worst among clubs still in the race for the Cup. Contrast those numbers with their 2024 playoff averages of 3.44 goals-for per game and 2.60 GAA, and you’ll see the Oilers are more potent this season in the opposition’s zone but also less effective in their own zone.
Meanwhile, the Stars’ defensive numbers last post-season were strong, as they had a 2.53 GAA, but their offense was less imposing, averaging 2.74 goals-for per game. This year, Dallas has a 2.62 goals-for average and a 2.92 GAA.
However, there could be some X-factors at play in a Western Conference final between the Stars and Oilers.
One of them is the return of star defenseman Miro Heiskanen, who returned to play in Game 4 against the Jets. Heiskanen was eased into action, playing only 14:52, but he still managed to register an assist. More importantly, his sky-high panic threshold was another reason the Stars pushed Winnipeg to the brink of elimination. In Game 6, Heiskanen added another assist and logged more than 23 minutes of ice time.
Another X-factor is Oilers D-man Mattias Ekholm.
He has been out of Edmonton’s lineup throughout the playoffs, but Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said Ekholm may be back for the Western final. Getting Ekholm’s robust physical game and veteran know-how back against the Stars would be a massive boost for Edmonton, and the positive ripple effect it would have on the rest of the Oilers’ defense corps can’t be overstated.
Finally, what could prove to be the difference in an Oilers and Stars series is the goaltending.
Edmonton has got some solid performances in net from Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, but compare the individual numbers of Skinner (.884 save percentage, 3.05 GAA) and Pickard (.888 SP, 2.84 GAA) to those of Dallas’ Jake Oettinger (.919 SP, 2.47 GAA), and you’ll see why some believe the Stars should be the favorites in this series. Oettinger is clearly the best goalie in a showdown against the Oilers. If he can keep Edmonton stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in check, he will give Dallas’ offense opportunities to win games.
Considering what we've seen so far, there’s a good argument that whichever team wins the Western final should be the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup. So it will be a mighty battle between Edmonton and Dallas in the Western final. They’re familiar foes who were in this exact same battle last spring, and this time, this series may have a different outcome.
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