The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs are over, so it’s once again time to offer our series predictions. In the second round, we went 1-1 with our Western picks, and we’re back to offer up our projections for the Western Conference final.
As always, bear in mind these are this writer’s educated guesses.
On to it, we go:
Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Edmonton Oilers (P3)
Season series: 2-1 Dallas
Why Dallas will win:The Stars have gotten stronger and stronger as the playoffs have unfolded, knocking off the Colorado Avalanche in seven games in Round 1, then outlasting the Winnipeg Jets in six games in Round 2. Despite dealing with the high-octane offense of the Jets and Avs, Dallas allowed more than two goals just once in their eight wins in the first two rounds – and in three of those eight wins, the Stars allowed only one goal. Meanwhile, Dallas’ offense has been potent, generating at least three goals in six of those eight wins.
The Stars have a far better goalie in Jake Oettinger (.919 save percentage, 2.47 goals-against average) than Edmonton does in Stuart Skinner (.884 SP, 3.05 GAA), and Dallas also has the better defense corps, including top blueliner Miro Heiskanen. The Stars will have to keep Oilers superstar centers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in check, but they found a way to do that with Avalanche stars Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar – and that was without Heiskanen, who was injured at the time.
To be sure, the Oilers will give the Stars their toughest test yet, but there’s a reason why Dallas was the sexy pick of many people to win the Cup at the beginning of the season. The Stars have the depth, elite talent and plethora of difference-makers to get the job done. And while Edmonton also has its share of elite talent, Dallas was able to beat two very good teams in the first two rounds, and there’s no reason to think they can’t do it again now.
Why Edmonton will win: The Oilers showed last season they could handle the Stars in the Western final, beating Dallas in six games – and this year’s Edmonton team is deeper and better than last year’s Oilers team. Edmonton has gotten the expected contributions from McDavid and Draisaitl as they eliminated the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1 and the Vegas Golden Knights in Round 2, but they’ve also received solid showings from support players including forwards Connor Brown, Kasperi Kapanen and Adam Henrique, and that’s what any team needs if they’re to win a Cup.
In beating the Golden Knights, the Oilers got a great performance from Skinner, and if Skinner does falter against the Stars, Calvin Pickard can come in and at least give Edmonton a chance to beat the Stars in Round 3. And if veteran D-man Mattias Ekholm can return from injury, he’ll give the Oilers a physical element that will punish Dallas when they’re in Edmonton’s zone.
The Stars did edge out the Oilers in their regular-season matchups, but Edmonton has found a way to raise their overall game with every round that has passed. With game-breakers McDavid and Draisaitl giving them an edge up front, the Oilers have the hunger and determination to best Dallas once again and set up a Cup final showdown against the Carolina Hurricanes or Florida Panthers. It’s about rising to the occasion, and the Oilers have demonstrated they can do that.
Prediction: Stars in seven games
In picking Dallas to win this series in seven games, we’re giving the Oilers their due. Edmonton isn’t going to lie down for anyone, and they’ve already got the confidence that comes from the experience they had against the Stars last year. But the Stars have a game-breaker of their own in right winger Mikko Rantanen, and Dallas’ attention to detail on the defensive end of things gives them an all-around edge against Edmonton.
As we know, sometimes playoff success can come through special teams, and Dallas’ power-play efficiency in the playoffs (30.8 percent) and penalty-kill (86.1 percent) is superior to Edmonton’s power-play (25 percent) and penalty-kill (66.7 percent). In a series that will see each team thriving at different times for different reasons, the edge in special teams could be the difference between the Stars winning and losing against the Oilers.
Regardless of who wins the Western final, we’re picking the winner to emerge as the Cup-winner this spring. But we’ve been impressed by Dallas all season long, and that isn’t going to change now. So we’re sticking with the Stars team we’ve liked right off the hop this year, and we’re projecting Dallas to win its second Cup in franchise history.
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