Oilers and Panthers head for must-win Game 5 Saturday with McDavid due for a big game
The 2025 Stanley Cup Final shifts back to Edmonton with the series tied 2-2 after the Oilers evened things up in Florida. What once looked like a commanding Panthers lead has now turned into a best-of-three showdown, with the Oilers regaining momentum on home ice at Rogers Place heading into a pivotal Game 5.
Game 5 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final arrives with the series tied 2-2, and history tells us just how crucial this night could be. The Edmonton Oilers return home to Rogers Place after splitting two games in Florida, reclaiming momentum and setting the stage for what could be the most defining game of the series.
Both teams now stand just two wins away from a championship, but based on decades of Stanley Cup history, Game 5 tends to separate contenders from champions.
Since the NHL moved to the best-of-seven format in 1939, the team that wins Game 5 of a tied Final has gone on to win the Stanley Cup over 70% of the time, according to NHL Stats and ESPN research.
According to Hockey Reference, in the modern salary cap era (2006 to present), teams winning Game 5 of a tied Final on home ice have gone 6-1 in those series. That stat leans heavily in Edmonton’s favor as they prepare for Tuesday night’s clash in front of what will be another electric crowd at Rogers Place.
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Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers Game 5 Best Bets:
- Oilers Moneyline (-110)
- Over 6.5 Total Goals (-112)
- Connor McDavid to Record 2+ Points (-128)
After scoring just one goal through the first two games, Edmonton’s offense has exploded for eight goals over Games 3 and 4, finding rhythm against a Florida defense that suddenly looks overwhelmed.
Connor McDavid leads the postseason in scoring and seems to have fully taken over the series, generating chances nearly every shift and elevating the entire top six.
Back at Rogers Place—where the Oilers are 7-3 this postseason and average over four goals per game—Edmonton holds a decisive edge. Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has shown cracks, posting an .857 save percentage in Game 4 and looking less sharp under increased pressure. That opens the door for another high-scoring night.
The total is set at 6.5 goals (-112), a number that’s already hit in back-to-back games. With both teams’ star power now fully engaged, special teams factoring in, and defensive fatigue showing, the conditions are perfect for the Over to cash again.
McDavid, meanwhile, has recorded six points in his last two games and has 10 multi-point outings this postseason. With the series tied and stakes at their peak, backing him to register 2+ points is one of the strongest player props on the board.
Expect a fast-paced Game 5 dominated by Edmonton’s top-end talent, fueled by a raucous home crowd and a wide-open style that favors the Over.
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