In the early portion of the second round of the 2025 NHL Draft, Sportnet's Elliotte Friedman reported that the Ottawa Senators had reached a trade agreement with the Los Angeles Kings, sending the 67th overall pick in this year's draft and a sixth-round selection, previously acquired from Colorado, in the 2026 NHL Draft.
The Senators acquired the 67th overall selection last night when they elected to move back two spots from their 21st overall selection to take Logan Hensler with the 23rd overall pick.
In its entirety, the Senators essentially flipped last night's first-round pick and what is likely an inconsequential late-round pick next year for Spence and a prospect that the Senators had high on their draft list, who some analysts had projected to be in the mix for a top-10 selection in their preseason draft forecasts.
From an asset management perspective alone, that is a tidy piece of business and aligns with this recurring pattern where the organization is working the margins and adding significant value.
I wrote about Spence's prospective availability earlier this summer and analyzed whether he would be a fit for the Senators, so I do not want to re-hash too much of that piece.
In saying that, the 24-year-old Spence is a right-shot defenceman who produced four goals and 28 points in 79 games for the Kings this season.
Spence is in the last year of his two-year contract that pays him $1.5 million.
He is an analytical darling.
According to NaturalStatTrick's data, the Kings generated 56.80 percent of the shots (CF%), 56.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 65.43 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 56.88 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) when Spence was on the ice this season.
Having the ability to tilt the ice that heavily in your team's favour is a desirable skill that teams will value. The reason for this is relatively simple: Spence is exceptional at retrieving the puck and transitioning it.
In an article for NHL.com, Zach Dooley wrote, "No Kings blueliner had a higher success rate of exiting the defensive zone this season via a carry-out or a pass than Spence did, at just shy of 90 percent."
The wrinkle is that Spence is an undersized defenceman listed at 5'11" and 180 lb. Thanks to the presence of elite puck-movers like Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot, coupled with other analytical darlings in Artem Zub and Nick Jensen, I wondered whether the group is too easy to play against and whether Spence would fit, believing that the Senators may need a bigger and stronger presence on the back end who could move the puck. Think of a right-shot version of Tyler Kleven.
Spence's acquisition flies in the face of that belief, but speaking to a league source with extensive knowledge of the Kings and Spence's game, I inquired whether he is a competent defender or whether he primarily benefits from a strong defensive team in Los Angeles.
"He isn't that active defensively in terms of stick checks and pass blocks," the source described. "But his on-ice defensive metrics are consistently awesome. I'd find it hard to believe if he's just benefiting from (Los Angeles') systems."
That analysis is encouraging, but it is worth noting that Spence thrived in a sheltered role during the season, and once the postseason began, Spence's role and responsibilities significantly decreased.
After averaging 16:47 of ice time per game during the regular season, Spence only averaged 7:31 of ice time per game in the postseason. Considering how the Kings faced the Oilers in the quarterfinals, it is perhaps not surprising that they tried to match their best defencemen against McDavid and Draisaitl.
Whatever the case, the Senators had to do something to address their right side on the blue line. Following Nick Jensen's offseason hip surgery and the uncertainty it creates regarding whether he can return to the level of play he exhibited during the fall, Spence serves as a measure of insurance. He's also a fine insurance policy should Jensen be leaning toward leaving in free agency next summer.
As this season has shown, if the organization is serious about climbing the Eastern Conference standings and moving itself toward Cup contention, it cannot afford to play Travis Hamonic, one of the worst statistical and least valuable defencemen in the league, for 59 games due to injuries within its top four.
Had the Senators been able to replace Hamonic with Spence this season, the move would have been worth an additional 3.3 wins according to Evolving-Hockey's 'wins above replacement' metric (WAR).
The presence of Spence allows the organization to shelter him on the third pairing with Tyler Kleven, a staunch defender in his own right. They could also potentially pivot and have Nick Jensen play there as part of a load management strategy to integrate him back slowly and preserve his health.
Whatever the case, it represents an upgrade on what they previously had in place. As much credit as Nik Matinpalo received for being a big and rangy depth defenceman, his numbers with Kleven down the stretch were not particularly strong. When the duo was on the ice, the Senators only generated 48.53 percent of the shots (CF%), 45.58 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 43.90 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 40.20 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) at five-on-five per Evolving-Hockey.
The Senators need to improve on those numbers if they are to improve as a group, and Spence is certainly a notable improvement over what they had. His presence also affords the organization the patience to bring Carter Yakemchuk along slowly and marinate at the AHL level, where he can log big minutes and learn to defend at the professional level.
His acquisition represents another win for asset management and improving the margins. Conversely, adding a 24-year-old to a young mix that already includes Jake Sanderson, Carter Yakemchuk, Logan Hensler is exciting. Like this year's deadline acquisition of Fabian Zetterlund, adding talented players in their 20s who can grow with this young core is desirable.
The only question is whether this series of moves will move the needle enough to get the Senators that much closer to their window of contention.
Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News/Ottawa
Banner image credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
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