It seems like Pittsburgh Penguins' forwards Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust are the subject of Pittsburgh hockey news just about every other day at this point.
Most of the “news” - or think pieces - involve discourse on where either player could end up if traded, if both of them will be traded, and how the Penguins need to trade both of them in order to properly manage the rebuild that they’re attempting to execute.
But something that isn’t talked about nearly enough is the possibility of them staying.
What if one or both of them stick around? And would one or both of them sticking around thwart any successful attempt at a rebuild?
It’s certainly fair to conclude that one of the two should be dealt, along with veteran offensive blueliner Erik Karlsson. The Penguins are still in the business of collecting high-value assets, whether that means first-round picks or young NHL talent. And that doesn’t figure to change through the end of next season.
But if one of them is kept, is it really going to set back the rebuild to any tangible degree?
Honestly? Probably not.
It’s worth noting that the 2026 NHL draft class is, by all accounts, a pretty strong one. The obvious prize comes along with the lottery, as Gavin McKenna is waiting in the wings for one lucky - or unlucky, depending on how it’s looked at - team. As such, it stands to reason that first-round picks simply have higher value in the trade market right now than they have for the past several seasons - especially for fringe teams that may or may not want to take the next step and make the playoffs.
Because of this, it’s fair to wonder whether or not any of those “fringe” teams - such as the Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, or Vancouver Canucks - would want to be in on someone like Rakell or Rust, both of whom Penguins’ GM and POHO Kyle Dubas is, likely, seeking a first-round pick for.
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And if a first-round pick is his demand, that is understandable, considering the seasons that Rakell and Rust had. Rakell, 32, put together the best season of his NHL career in 2024-25, amassing 35 goals and 70 points, while Rust, 33, did the same with 31 goals and 65 points. Any team looking to get over the hump, or any contending team looking to add one more reliable finisher in their top-six, would love to have either player for three more seasons at around $5 million.
If those fringe teams aren’t willing to give up that asset, it’s understandable that Dubas would wait around to see who is willing to pony up. And, that likely leaves the true contenders.
While Rakell or Rust going to a contending team certainly makes sense, it’s key to remember that the presumed first-round pick coming back would, more than likely, not be anywhere near the lottery. And is it worth it to surrender both Rakell and Rust for two late-first-round picks?
According to a recent article by Jacob Billington of The Hockey Writers, it’s clear to see the dropoff in talent after the top-10 selections in NHL drafts from 1963 to 2023. According to the data, for players drafted 10th overall, 75.4 percent play more than 100 NHL games.
Beyond that? Much of the remaining first round is a total crapshoot, especially in the teens. For reference, 45 percent of players drafted at 11th overall - which is where the Penguins selected Ben Kindel in 2025 - end up playing more than 500 NHL games. While that exceeds the 36 percent for the same number of games at 10th overall, only 65 percent play more than 100 NHL games.
Then, beyond 20, both numbers steadily drop, with 56.3 percent making it past 100 games and 25.8 percent hitting 500 games.
The point here is that - despite the respective ages of Rakell and Rust - they do have three years left on their current deals, and they both can put the puck in the net alongside Sidney Crosby. The chances of the Penguins getting a late-round franchise player - or, even, a very good complementary player - for both of them in a trade is low enough that it may not be worth giving both of them up.
Besides, there has to be a reason Dubas is hesitant to deal both that goes beyond nostalgia. The easiest and most logical explanation is that he’s letting the market play up for both of them only to pounce at its highest-value moment, which makes sense.
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But it cannot be understated how much these players mean to the Penguins and how much they mean to the young players in the room that they’re trying very hard to develop, especially Rust. Dubas has also reiterated the desire to get the Penguins back to contention “as urgently as possible,” and it’s very plausible that he sees a potential overlap in the team’s window of contention before both contracts expire.
Look at it this way: Yes, he can net higher-value draft picks for Rakell and Rust. But the Penguins don’t necessarily need more than one in return, considering the fact that they own all of their first-round picks for the coming drafts. The Washington Capitals, for example - who had a top-notch 2024-25 campaign and seem to have successfully executed a rebuild on-the-fly - have managed to hit on their scouting and draft picks while only drafting once in the top-10 over the past decade and not having more than one first-round pick since 2012, when they selected now-veterans Filip Forsberg (11th overall) and Tom Wilson (16th overall).
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They were also successful in identifying veterans on their roster who were worth keeping around for their retool in Wilson, John Carlson, and Nic Dowd. Washington didn’t rid of every veteran with trade value on their roster for a reason - and that was because they understood that their value to the team’s ultimate goal of competing “as urgently as possible” exceeded the value they’d net in return.
So, say one of Rakell and Rust is traded. Dubas would, hypothetically, have two first-round picks next season - one of which may very well be a lottery selection - and he already has NHL-ready talent knocking at the door and vying for spots on the NHL roster.
If any of the Penguins’ three first-round picks from the 2025 draft crack the NHL roster within two years - Kindle, for example - plus that 2026 lottery pick, plus good complementary players like Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen, Owen Pickering, Harrison Brunicke, and Tristan Broz, doesn’t having one of either Rust or Rakell around in addition to that significantly increase their chances of contending sooner?
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It’s better to have all of the aforementioned guys PLUS a Rust or a Rakell for another year or two, in addition to Crosby. All of a sudden, the lineup is guaranteed deeper in 2026-27 and 2027-28. The Penguins would still have a lot of high-value picks to build out their organization from the draft, and some of those players may - or may not - make a sooner-than-expected impact.
Simply put, there is an avenue to contention with one of those guys still on the roster, and not dealing one of them is not a colossal failure for that reason. Of course, if the Penguins get a good, young player in return for each of them - preferably some higher-ceiling help on the blue line - maybe the tune is different. And, if the Penguins are still bottom-feeders in 2026-27, they should still be able to net decent value in a later trade for whichever of the two they decide to stick with.
But if this is mostly about first-round draft capital? It’s probably worth eating that potential asset and keeping one of them around through the final year or two of their current deal to help bridge the Penguins into a new window of contention. Successful rebuilds, realistically, don't hinge on one singular move - or lack of a move - to define that success.
Regardless of what happens with Rakell and Rust - if you’re putting all the pieces of the puzzle together - contention may not be as far off as many seem to think if Dubas and the Penguins can successfully execute this phase of the rebuild in nearly every other facet.
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Feature Image Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images