WIth the 2025-26 NHL season just around the corner, teams are looking ahead to their respective training camps beginning in mid-September.
Barring a few more trades and signings here and there, most teams have a pretty good idea of what their rosters will look like next season, and they have conceptualized what the organizational approach will be next season in terms of standings and playoff aspirations.
Some teams plan to be contenders, and some plan to be bottom-feeders. So, where do the Pittsburgh Penguins stand?
There are a few things we know to be true at this point: For one, there is a generational talent in Gavin McKenna waiting in the wings for the winner of the 2026 draft lottery. We also know that the Penguins find themselves in the middle of a transitionary period, even if we don’t have an exact timeline on when they plan to start competing for the playoffs again.
Given those two factors, it should be relatively obvious what Pittsburgh should be gunning for in 2025-26. They’re aging out, they have suspect goaltending and defense, and they aren’t exactly contenders. The chance to draft the most hyped prospect since Connor McDavid should, presumably, be a goal for any team that knows they won’t be playing beyond the month of April next season.
But that’s precisely what makes the McKenna sweepstakes quite complicated for the Penguins next season: Although they may be positioned well enough not to make any real noise in the playoff hunt, there are also several teams that are probably better-equipped - and more committed - to tanking for McKenna.
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The Penguins’ situation
One look at the Penguins’ roster for next season shouldn’t have anyone jumping for joy. It may not be the worst roster the Penguins have constructed in the last 25 years, but it’s certainly not one of the best, either.
And in a McKenna sweepstakes year? That mushy middle could prove to be a bit of an issue.
At the end of the day, this isn’t about whether or not Pittsburgh should tank for McKenna. There are legitimate arguments to be made for the different directions that GM/POHO Kyle Dubas and the Penguins could take over the next season or two, especially since captain Sidney Crosby’s two-year extension kicks in this season, and he’s still playing like a top-10 player in the league.
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Rather, this is about their ability to tank as intentionally as some other teams in a similar boat given the situation with their roster.
On the forward front - assuming no other trades are made prior to the start of the season - the Penguins should be markedly better on the forward front.
Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust are both coming off of career years for the Penguins, and as long as they are deployed alongside Crosby and remain healthy, there’s not really any reason to think they will drop off substantially. The Penguins went out and signed free agent forward Anthony Mantha to a one-year deal - one of their better free agent signings in recent memory - and they’ll have a full season of Tommy Novak, who was injured for most of his Penguins’ stint after being acquired from the Nashville Predators prior to the 2025 trade deadline.
They should also have a few young, promising forwards as part of the full-time NHL roster next season, as prospects Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty showed a ton of potential in brief stints to close out the 2024-25 season. They will also have others such as Tristan Broz, Avery Hayes, and Filip Hallander pushing for roster spots, which should make things interesting and provide an injection of energy into an otherwise aged roster.
However, the Penguins are still very weak on the blue line - and this would only get worse if Erik Karlsson is dealt prior to puck drop on Oct. 7 - and their goaltending is questionable at best, even following the acquisition of Arturs Silovs from the Vancouver Canucks this summer and with prospects Joel Blomqvist and Sergei Murashov in the pipeline.
But that’s just it: If anything, they’re about the same as where they were on the back end last season, they should be marginally improved between the pipes, and they’re better on paper when it comes to the top-12 on their forward depth chart. As a result, they may actually be a bit better than they were last season.
If they want the chance to draft McKenna, that probably won’t be enough, barring any major trade to send a key piece like Karlsson, Rakell, or Rust packing.
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Other teams in the mix
Again, a big part of the McKenna equation is the fact that a handful of other teams are actively still trying to tank next season. And they are still considerably worse than Pittsburgh is.
The Buffalo Sabres haven’t done anything substantial to address their roster in a meaningful way, and they lost J.J. Peterka to the Utah Mammoth. They did get defenseman Michael Kesselring and forward Josh Doan in return, but Peterka is the better player.
The Chicago Blackhawks have continued on the same path they’ve been taking for the past several years despite some whispers earlier this summer that they might try to take the next step. They aren’t going anywhere fast next season and should, presumably, finish in the bottom-five once again.
Teams like the Anaheim Ducks, Boston Bruins, Seattle Kraken, and San Jose Sharks are still making little to no effort to improve, even if a team like the Sharks has an outside shot at being a bit better because of a big youth movement. There are also still a lot of teams - such as the Detroit Red Wings, Vancouver Canucks, and Nashville Predators, and New York Islanders that are stuck in a limbo state with an unclear direction, similar to the Penguins.
In other words, if the Penguins want a bottom-five finish in the standings - and there’s no guarantee that’s what they’re aiming for - they need to get quite a bit worse. As of now, there are simply too many teams in the mix, and they haven’t positioned themselves well enough to be a surefire tanking team.
As of now, it’s looking like they might finish right around where they did last season. If they want McKenna - or if they want to start making a push next season - Dubas and the Penguins are going to have to commit a bit harder in one direction.
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