When analyzing what constitutes a successful season, there is often an accompanying tendency to focus exclusively on easily trackable statistics like goals or points.
There is an emphasis on offensive statistics, and part of that could be a trickle-down effect that begins with debating the merits of a player's Hall of Fame credentials and carries down through the ranks, eventually resolving whether a player is productive enough for their respective role on their hockey club.
When it comes to the Senators' Dylan Cozens, there may not be another player on the roster whose personal development and growth is as essential to the organization's rise and breakthrough as an Eastern Conference Cup contender. That is not disrespectful to any of the team's young core pieces; it is just that the others have established themselves.
Brady Tkachuk, for example, is one of the preeminent power forwards in the game who can be relied on for his physicality, leadership and 30-plus goals and 70-plus points. Tim Stützle has developed into a well-rounded first-line centre who should play at a point-per-game or higher pace. Jake Sanderson has evolved into one of the most complete defencemen in the NHL and is fully capable of vying for a Norris Trophy.
These players are already among the game's best, so how much more should reasonably be expected from them?
There is still some untapped potential and room for growth for Cozens. The seventh overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft escaped an untenable situation in Buffalo, where the organization has not reached the postseason since 2011.
Croatia's NHL Trailblazer: The Story Of Ottawa Senators Prospect Bruno IdžanResting on the coast of the Adriatic Sea, the Republic of Croatia is a beautiful country renowned for its pebbled beaches, natural scenery and parks. It gained notoriety and traction as a tourist destination in recent years, thanks to the popular Game of Thrones series, which used it as a filming location.
In five professional seasons, Cozens has only broken the 20-goal mark once. It occurred as a 21-year-old during his 2022-23 season when he established career-highs in goals (31) and points (68). The 'Workhorse from Whitehorse' has failed to replicate that production over the past three seasons. Granted, it is unfair to Cozens to hold him to that standard. That career year occurred because the young centre coupled the highest shot rate of his career (9.47 shots/60 in all situations per Natural Stat Trick) with a shooting percentage (14.69) that was five percent higher than his career average. Inevitably, some normalization was going to occur.
The troubling part of Cozens' game has been his defensive game. It has left something to be desired.
From Natural Stat Trick:
- 2020-21: 46.81 CF%, 43.66 SF%, 39.22 GF%, 43.14 xGF%
- 2021-22: 49.56 CF%, 48.09 SF%, 43.18 GF%, 45.94 xGF%
- 2022-23: 48.95 CF%, 47.97 SF%, 48.57 GF%, 50.04 xGF%
- 2023-24: 50.42 CF%, 51.01 SF%, 50.00 GF%, 49.63 xGF%
- 2024-25: 49.27 CF%, 49.05 SF%, 48.60 GF%, 46.14 xGF%
When Cozens has been on the ice, his team has historically been outshot (CF%), with the opposition generating a higher shots on goal (SF%). His teams have also tended to give up a higher percentage of total goals (GF%) and expected goals (xGF%).
In fairness to him, Cozens has played on some terrible teams featuring poor structure and a weak supporting cast.
At the same time, Cozens' isolated defensive impacts have not been particularly strong per HockeyViz.
As a top-10 draft selection, a ton of responsibility was placed on Cozens to help transition the Sabres out of their perpetual rebuild. Systemic losing can drastically erode a player's confidence and suck the life out of a dressing room.
Cozens wore that burden heavily.
"I know I have another level to my game," Cozens relayed on the Coming in Hot Podcast in a June appearance. "These last two years, I have not been happy with it all.
"I think I showed a couple of years ago, you know, what I can be. It's all about getting back to that and then getting better than that. I know I have a lot more to give, and I know that I need to get back to that."
It will be the Senators' responsibility to help Cozens and restore that swagger and confidence. Following the trade deadline, he looked rejuvenated, centring the Senators' second line alongside Drake Batherson. From March 7th on, Batherson led the Senators in scoring with 10 goals and nine points in 21 games. Right behind him was Cozens, who recorded five goals and 16 points in the same number of games.
The pairing enjoyed some productivity, and right away, it was transparent how much better of a stylistic fit Cozens is. Listed at 6'3" and 207 lb, he is bigger than Josh Norris and although he is not as proficient a skater as Norris, Cozens can still move - ranking in the 76th percentile for skaters with 22+ mph bursts, the 84th percentile for 20-22 mph bursts and the 82nd percentile for 18-20 mph bursts according to the NHL EDGE's data.
Norris was renowned for his finishing ability, but his line's possession numbers would often drag because his line frequently relied upon puck recoveries through the dumping and chasing. Cozens has the confidence and willingness to carry the puck from the defensive zone through the neutral zone, creating a different dynamic wherein his line has an easier time establishing puck possession and offensive zone pressure.
Through his first 11 games with the Senators, the returns on the deal were very promising. Cozens tallied three goals and nine points while generating 29 shots on goal.
'Hockey IQ' Is Teachable: Sam Gagner At Ottawa Senators Development CampOne of the more insightful moments from this year's Ottawa Senators development camp occurred when Sam Gagner, the team's new director of player development, discussed hockey IQ.
At five-on-five, Cozens had some of the strongest per-60 rate stats on the team. He was second on the team in points (2.74 Pts/60), shots (8.68 Sh/60), and individual expected goals (0.95 ixG/60). When he was on the ice at five-on-five per Natural Stat Trick, the Senators generated 48.06 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.36 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 60.00 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 47.10 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
Then things began to take a turn.
In his last 10 games, the centre contributed two goals, five assists and 20 shots. His individual rate metrics plummeted:
- 0.93 Pts/60
- 6.02 Sh/60
- 0.52 ixG/60
The Senators' five-on-five shot and goal metrics cratered when Cozens was on the ice. They generated just 40.89 percent of the shots (CF%), which was the team's worst mark, 43.80 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 25.00 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 36.45 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
The encouraging part is twofold. These are small sample sizes of data to work with and in the postseason, Cozens' underlying metrics improved. In their six game series against the Maple Leafs, the Senators generated 54.14 percent of the shots (CF%), 49.09 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 53.36 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Granted, the Leafs played a very structured and collapsing defensive game, challenging the Senators to take high-volume shots from the outside while they took away the middle of the ice.
To his credit however, Cozens finished fourth on the team with his individual expected goal rate, but again, we are talking small sample sizes here.
What matters is that if the Senators are to transition from a prospective playoff team to a true Stanley Cup contender, they will need their second line to not only be productive but also tilt the ice in their team's favour against the opposition's best.
Sharing a quarter of the regular season with the Senators and playing in a competitive playoff series with this same group should give Cozens a level of comfort and familiarity with his teammates and coaching staff that can help him have a strong 2025-26 campaign.
The Senators will need it if they are going to take marked steps forward this season.
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News - Ottawa
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