Whether led by Sam Ersson or newcomer Dan Vladar, the fate of the Philadelphia Flyers will be decided by their goaltending in the 2025-26 season.
As a team, the Flyers, spearheaded by Ersson and a combo of Ivan Fedotov and Aleksei Kolosov, had the worst save percentage in the NHL last season at a paltry .872.
Their cumulative 3.40 GAA ranked fifth-worst in the NHL, and overall, the Flyers' struggles in goal doomed them to placing as the fourth-worst team in the league.
That worked out in their favor, though, as it helped them land star winger prospect Porter Martone with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft.
But, eventually, the Flyers are going to have to start winning games and not drafts. That's why Rick Tocchet, Trevor Zegras, and Vladar were brought in.
Is Vladar really an upgrade, though, or are we in for an even split from Kim Dillabaugh's crew this season?
Flyers Goalie Sam Ersson Positioned for Success in 2025-26Despite the prolonged dissatisfaction with the state of the goaltending, the Philadelphia Flyers have positioned incumbent starter Sam Ersson for success in the 2025-26 season.
Since Feb. 1, 2024, which is shortly after Carter Hart took an indefinite leave of absence from the Flyers, Ersson is 33-27-9 with a 3.10 GAA, a .883 save percentage, and one shutout.
Across that same span, even though it's not relevant to Vladar individually, the former Calgary Flames goalie was 13-13-6 with a 3.04 GAA, a .892 save percentage, and two shutouts.
Effectively, there wasn't much of a difference separating the two goalies over the last year and a half.
Now, from Oct. 1, 2023, to Feb. 1, 2024, Ersson was 12-9-3 with a 2.60 GAA and a .898 save percentage with three shutouts. It should be noted that, in the three games that immediately followed Hart's departure in that span, Ersson surrendered 11 goals on 60 shots.
Take away those three games, and Ersson is 12-6-3 with a 2.36 GAA, a .909 save percentage, and three shutouts from Oct. 1, 2023 to Jan. 22, 2024.
So, I threw a lot of numbers out there, and the conclusion is effectively that the Swedish incumbent performed significantly better when he wasn't shouldering the load alone.
Flames Sniper Backs 'Excellent' Aleksei Kolosov to Stay with Flyers, Continue NHL CareerGoalie prospect Aleksei Kolosov has all the talent and experience to stay with the Philadelphia Flyers and forge a successful NHL career for himself, but will he?
Once nerves set in and the lackluster support behind him faltered, so did Ersson and the Flyers as a whole.
I also think Vladar is a better goalie than his stats indicate, but you have to wonder why he's never started more than 29 games in any of the last four seasons for the Flames.
Sure, Jacob Markstrom and Dustin Wolf earned their playing time, but Vladar isn't going to be allowed to give those guys many nights off with seasonal save percentages below .900 across 20-30 total games played.
Based on that, I'm expecting Sam Ersson to lead the Flyers onto the ice for opening night at Xfinity Mobile Arena on opening night.
He's the Flyers' homegrown goalie prospect-turned-regular, and we've already seen his upside in this environment. The key, however, is now figuring out if that was his ceiling.
If so, it means more opportunity for Vladar.