Kaprizov vs. McDavid: The $16 Million Question Shaking the NHL

One of the biggest storylines in the NHL took an interesting turn on Wednesday.

While the Edmonton Oilers wait on Connor McDavid to find out what it is exactly he needs to see to sign an extension with the team, Kirill Kaprizov, his closest comparable in terms of expected annual average salary, turned down $128 million from the Minnesota Wild. 

Reports are that Kaprizov turned down an eight-year deal for $16 million per season. That would have put him right beside McDavid's rumored ballpark number on an extension, and it's more money than insiders were projecting Kaprizov would get.

Much like the Oilers don't really know why McDavid is hesitating in signing his contract, the Wild are trying to find out what Kaprizov is looking for. 

Michael Russo of The Athletic writes:

"They need to determine if this is agent Paul Theofanous playing hardball because he thinks more money than $16 million is waiting in free agency for Kaprizov next summer, or if this is the beginning of the end of Kaprizov in Minnesota. Either way, the decision will be pivotal in determining the path of this franchise for the next decade."
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If Kaprizov wants money and the Wild give in, what will that mean for McDavid and other top-end elite NHL talent set to hit free agency?

It's a $16 million question that no one can seem to answer. 

Perhaps this Kaprizov news means nothing when it comes to McDavid. After all, these two superstars might not be looking at what the other is making when it comes to negotiating their respective deals. Both are elite-level talents, and their motivations and situations are different. 

At the same time, that's a lot of money for Kaprizov to turn down, and most would agree that McDavid holds more value on the open market than Kaprizov does. As good as the winger is, McDavid should be paid more. 

Kaprizov Is Looking For "Something" In His Next Deal

The most logical explanation for this Kaprizov shocker is that he a) wants a shorter term or b) wants to play elsewhere. 

Seravalli’s report has been contested by other sources, including Rob Reinhart, who called the story “completely fabricated." Other trusted reporters, like Russo, seem to think there's something to this, and he is about as connected as anyone when it comes to the Wild. He believes this could get nasty if the Wild can't uncover what's motivating Kaprizov. Russo said, "If Kaprizov won’t entertain a contract extension by the Wild, it could be incumbent on Guerin to get a handful of teams Kaprizov would consider a trade to."

Did Kirill Kaprizov turn down $16 million per season over eight years from the Wild? Photo By: 

© Sergei Belski Imagn Images

Wild GM Bill Guerin said the two sides are still talking and played down the urgency of the negotiations, taking what appears to be a sideways turn. He said later in the day on Wednesday, "I know two things: that info didn’t come from us, and it didn’t come from Kirill’s agent. I don’t know where it came from."

McDavid Is Still Contemplating His Next Move

The potential $16 million mark is notable because it is right in line with what many insiders thought McDavid might be making on his next contract.  The Oilers' captain is currently taking his time to go through his process, figure out what he wants to do with an extension, and then he'll sign, if and when he's ready to. 

Is Connor McDavid Prepared To Shake Up The Entire NHL?Is Connor McDavid Prepared To Shake Up The Entire NHL?Connor McDavid’s pending contract with the Edmonton Oilers is more than just a story about one player's tough decision and how it will affect him and his family. This is potentially a story about the dominoes that fall after McDavid makes his extension preference clear.

Like the Wild, the Oilers say they aren't panicking. They're being patient and believe it's less about money for McDavid. He wants to win, and it sounds like he's willing to take less to do so, assuming he feels confident the Oilers will be good beyond this season and for many seasons after that.

McDavid knows that to build a contender, he's going to need to leave a little on the table. Some thought he might take less than $16 million to ensure the Oilers could add other pieces. 

One has to wonder if this Kaprizov news will make McDavid wonder if $16 million is too big a discount. 

Meanwhile, other big-name unrestricted free agents across the league are waiting and watching McDavid’s negotiations closely before making long-term commitments.

How Will This Impact the NHL's Top Tier Salaries?

Even without waiting to see McDavid’s final contract, Kaprizov seems prepared to push Minnesota to the limits to maximize his earning potential. If he refuses to sign, the team could be forced to explore trade options to avoid losing their star for nothing.

“Is This Real?” Insider Says McDavid’s Comments Has NHL on Alert

Frankly, if Kaprizov doesn't think $16 million is enough, the Wild have a choice to make. And, if they budge and pay him more than that, what is the domino effect across the league?

Will McDavid wonder if $16 million is enough if Kaprizov makes more? Photo by: 

© Bob Frid Imagn Images

If the NHL salary cap rises to $120 million within a few years, Kaprizov could theoretically command upwards of $20 - $24 million per season, making any $16 million deal today appear comparatively modest. Is this the kind of thing that is also running through McDavid's mind? 

Is this what players like Jack Eichel, Kyle Connor, Artemi Panarin, and others are thinking?

Once Kaprizov or McDavid sets the market, it becomes the marker for agents and players to start negotiating. 

And, if for some reason McDavid winds up going to market, teams that just heard Kaprizov turned down $128 million now know they'll need to pony up and make a ton of cap space available for a player who is better and should be paid more in McDavid. 

People thought $16 might be the high mark. That appears to no longer be the case. 

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