Why Numbers Don’t Tell the Whole Story for Ilya Nabokov

For much of the past two seasons, Colorado Avalanche fans have been eagerly following 22-year-old goaltending prospect Ilya Nabokov. This year, the highly touted netminder has posted numbers that fall short of expectations, though the decline is not as severe as it might appear.

Before Colorado selected him in the second round of the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, one of the main concerns about his game was his size. At 6-foot-1, he is considered relatively small for a modern NHL goaltender, and his unusually low stance only adds to that concern. In the KHL, that style has worked in his favor, as his athleticism allows him to move quickly across the crease and make difficult, highlight-worthy saves from sharp angles. Yet many within the hockey world remain fixated on numbers rather than acknowledging the fundamental differences between North American play and the KHL, or they may simply be unaware of those differences altogether.

KHL (@khl_eng) on XKHL (@khl_eng) on XIlya Nabokov says NO

Styles Make Goalies

Nabokov currently has a record of 9-3 with a 2.63 goals-against average and a .899 save percentage. On paper, it appears he is having the worst season of his career, especially compared with his last two years with Metallurg Magnitogorsk, where he posted an average save percentage of .928 and a goals-against average of roughly 2.18. But people are missing the point.

At the KHL level, Nabokov’s low stance is generally not a liability, as the league does not feature the same concentration of elite snipers found in the NHL who would torch him like a volcano top shelf if he utilized that same style. He is not suddenly a fragile goaltender; rather, he is developing and adjusting to a more North American style of play. This transition has inevitably affected his KHL statistics, but it should not be a cause for widespread concern.

Avalanche Loaded With Goaltending Depth

The Avalanche are in a good position right now, with a strong group of goaltenders—a luxury they haven’t had much of since winning the Stanley Cup in 2022. Scott Wedgewood is leading the way in this goaltending resurgence. Since joining Colorado, he’s played at the highest level of his career, a performance that earned him a well-deserved contract extension last week. The 33-year-old signed a one-year, $2.5 million deal, keeping him with the Avalanche through the 2026–27 season.

It’s clear the team still believes Nabokov is their goalie of the future. If that weren’t the case, Wedgewood likely would have received a longer deal. Based on that, it’s reasonable to expect Nabokov will spend next season with the Colorado Eagles in the AHL, while also getting a chance to start for the Avalanche. If Wedgewood continues to perform well and Nabokov struggles adapting to the North American game, the team could reconsider a bigger deal for Wedgewood. There’s also the Mackenzie Blackwood situation to factor in—he’s still working to get back into form. For now, Wedgewood seems to be the guy, Blackwood is still finding his rhythm, and Nabokov remains a developing talent in Russia, quietly sharpening his skills.

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