It's American Thanksgiving, so any NHL team in a playoff spot by this point should be grateful.
Historically, about three-quarters of NHL teams that are currently in a Stanley Cup playoff spot end up making the post-season. As for the other quarter, they blew their opportunity.
Last American Thanksgiving, the New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks were in a playoff spot. They all fell out, and the Rangers, Flyers and Canucks even changed coaches in the off-season.
Also on the last U.S. Thanksgiving, the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens were the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference. They made the playoffs. And in the West, the Colorado Avalanche bounced back from an ugly start, while the St. Louis Blues went on a late-season surge to make the first round.
With that said, let's examine teams currently out of a playoff spot that could climb in and who they could replace in the standings.
Edmonton Oilers
Why they're out of a playoff spot right now: Keeping the puck out of the net is the Oilers’ Achilles Heel at the moment. Edmonton ranks 31st with a goals-against average of 3.72. Starter Stuart Skinner has a 3.18 goals-against average and a save percentage of .878, but the defense in front of them hasn't been excellent.
Why they could climb in: With Skinner and backup Calvin Pickard struggling, the chances of acquiring a new goalie is rising significantly. And with a bump in effectiveness between the pipes, Edmonton’s offense could power them into a post-season berth in the comparatively weak Pacific Division.
Who they could replace: Seattle Kraken
The Kraken have surprised many this season, posting an 11-6-6 record to put them in third place in the Pacific. But there could be some regression for Seattle, as its sub-standard offense (currently ranked 29th in the league at 2.57 goals-for per game) can only be bailed out by the defense for so long.
Winnipeg Jets
Why they're out of a playoff spot right now:The Jets started the year strongly, with a 9-3-0 record out of the gate. But they’ve since gone 3-7-0, and they’ve been outscored 33-25 in that 10-game span, dropping them down to 12th in the Western Conference.
Why they could climb in: As soon as star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck returns from injury – projected to be sometime in January at the soonest – the Jets are going to receive a major boost. So long as the Jets' offense is a top-10 offense in the NHL – and they’re currently ninth-best, averaging 3.14 goals-for per game – the Jets should rise in the Central Division standings and unseat a less-talented, less-experienced rival.
Who they could replace: Utah Mammoth
The Mammoth were this writer’s pick to be a playoff team this season – but their 5-6-2 road record is indicative of their lack of consistency. Utah has to fix its defense (currently ranked 17th in the NHL at 3.00 goals against per game) because the team is playing in the league’s toughest division.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Why they're out of a playoff spot right now: Despite their slew of injuries, the Maple Leafs haven’t had issues with their offense, as they’re ranked seventh in the league at 3.30 goals-for per game. The clear problem is their turnstile defense, which is fourth-worst in the NHL at 3.61 goals against per game – and their 2-6-0 road record is one of the worst in the league.
Why they could climb in: The Leafs have started to get healthy in recent days, with forwards Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies and Nicolas Roy all returning to action in a 2-1 Leafs win over the Columbus Blue Jackets Wednesday. If goalie Anthony Stolarz and defenseman Chris Tanev get healthy soon, the Buds will look much like the team that won the Atlantic Division last season.
Who they could replace: Boston Bruins
Few pegged the Bruins as a playoff team this season. Although they’ve produced a 14-11-0 record, they lack the depth to help them if the injury bug bites them harder than it already has, with Charlie McAvoy, Casey Mittelstadt, Viktor Arvidsson, Jordan Harris and Matej Blumel out of the lineup. The Bruins had a brutal six-game losing streak near the start of the season, and they’ve got a 3-4-0 record in their past seven games.
Florida Panthers
Why they're out of a playoff spot right now: While many predicted there would be a post-Cup-winning hangover for the Panthers, few thought they’d be sixth in the Atlantic and 14th place in the East with a 12-10-1 record. But the absence of star forwards Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk has decimated Florida’s offense and defense.
Why they could climb in: After the resilience Florida has shown in the past two seasons, is anybody prepared to count this team out of the playoff race? This isn’t to say they can flip a switch and turn into a world-beater team, but the Panthers still have enough talent to emerge from this funk and go on a tear. They’ll need to improve their 19th-overall defense first and foremost, but once Tkachuk returns, they’ll be a much tougher team to play against at both ends of the ice.
Who they could replace: Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins stormed out to a 6-2-0 record, but since then, they’ve gone 5-4-5 and have slid down to the second wild-card spot in the East. It's tough to believe their defense – third best at 2.59 goals-against per game – will stay as good as it has been. When they do regress in that department, teams like Florida, Montreal and Toronto will leapfrog them in the East’s standings.
Montreal Canadiens
Why they're out of a playoff spot right now: Few teams began the season as strongly as the Canadiens, which went 9-3-0 out of the gate. Since then, they’ve gone 3-4-3, suffering a five-game winless streak in November, and they now sit ninth in the East. They’ve been outscored 38-17 in their seven losses.
Why they could climb in: The Canadiens' offense has been ferocious this season, ranking third in goals-for per game, with 3.45. If they can corral their defense, which currently ranks 27th at 3.50 goals against per game, the Habs should be able to move up the Atlantic standings and get back into the playoffs for the second straight season.
Who they could replace:New York Islanders
The Islanders have the league’s 10th-best defense at 2.79 goals against per game, but the reason they could slide out of a playoff berth is their mediocre goals-for average of 2.96 per game. You can’t teach offense, and as the Islanders continue transitioning from one era to a new era centered around youngsters like budding star defenseman Matthew Schaefer, their issues on offense make them likely to falter more frequently and wind up on the outside of the playoffs looking in.
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