When the Pittsburgh Penguins traded star winger Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes in the spring of 2024, the top line of Guentzel, Sidney Crosby, and Bryan Rust was operating at a very high level. Many were worried about how the Penguins were going to offset the loss of Guentzel on that top line.

Well, Rickard Rakell fit in quite nicely as a replacement. And Rakell, Crosby, and Rust thrived the rest of that season and all of last season. 

However, this season has been a bit of a different story. 

From a production standpoint, things don't look all that bleak. But, when diving into the deeper picture - and, especially, ever since Rakell returned from injured reserve on Dec. 13 in a 6-5 loss to the San Jose Sharks - it tells a much different story. 

Overall, Rakell, Crosby, and Rust have combined for 34 goals and 73 points in 74 total games played, with 12 of those goals and 32 of those points coming on the power play. Crosby alone is on pace for 21 goals and 38 points on the power play - which would be his highest power play point total since 2017-18 and the highest power play goal total of his career by a margin of five, and those 16 power play goals came in his rookie season. 

So, not only is the even-strength production (they only have one six-on-five point) nothing spectacular, but they are more reliant on the power play this season than they have been in the past. And that's not even accounting for their defensive play. 

In Tuesday's 6-4 loss against the Edmonton Oilers, the line's expected goal share was a pedestrian 44.1 percent, with a glaring .928 on-ice expected goals against. The expected goals share for the Utah Mammoth loss on Sunday was 47 percent, while it was 51.3 percent against the Sharks. Those metrics simply aren't good enough for a team's top line. 

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And, according to HockeyStatcards, Rust (minus-2.5) and Crosby (minus-1.9) have the two worst defensive ratings on the Penguins. Rakell is right in the middle of the pack as far as Penguins' players are concerned and is one of their better defensive forwards. But even in the three games since Rakell's return, Crosby and Rust together are almost becoming a liability, and this dates back to last season. 

Prior to last season, Rust only had a plus-minus in the negatives twice in his career, with the lowest ranking at a minus-4. He finished the season at a minus-21.

As for Crosby? Same thing, with the previous worst being a minus-8. Last season, he finished at minus-20, and he has a minus-6 already this season. 

Normally, looking into plus-minus as a means to measure defensive and offensive performance is a futile exercise. But those numbers are so drastic that they're hard to ignore, and they match both the analytics and the eye test. 

Simply put, those two probably should not be seeing the ice together right now, even if they're producing above or near a point-per-game clip. Rust is versatile enough to slot elsewhere in the lineup and remain productive, and Crosby is skilled enough to keep one player near point-per-game (Rakell) on his line and develop chemistry with a younger, more defensively responsible forward.

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So, if this top line is split up, how should the Penguins handle their lineup?

Well, the truth is that without Evgeni Malkin and Blake Lizotte for the time being, it is difficult to do too much tinkering. The Penguins have a shortage of centers as-is, so they are limited on who they can bump up in the lineup. 

But there are still some viable options. 

For one, both Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty saw time with Crosby last season and excelled. McGroarty registered a goal and three points in five games, while Koivunen put up seven points in eight games split between Crosby's and Malkin's line. Koivunen (plus-1.2) and McGroarty (minus-0.3) are within the top-10 as far as defense rating among Penguins' forwards, and they both have a skillset that, in theory, should be complementary to an elite playmaker in Crosby and a goal-scoring, physical forward in Rakell. 

Koivunen was scratched Sunday against Utah, but it may be worth giving him another look in the top-six, especially since the Penguins are starting to shake up their lineup, anyway. 18-year-old Ben Kindel has been excellent as the team's third-line center this season, and although he has developed chemistry with both McGroarty and Koivunen, the top-six has to become a priority, especially with other capable players who can slot in on the third line. 

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Why not give McGroarty or Koivunen a few games alongside Crosby and Rakell? Then, you can have Tommy Novak center a second line with Bryan Rust and Anthony Mantha, while Justin Brazeau, Kindel, and Koivunen or McGroarty comprise the third line. 

Not only does this distribute scoring more evenly throughout the lineup, it also ensures that there is a stronger defensive presence on each of the top-three lines. And - at the end of the day - the Penguins are on a six-game losing streak, so trying something new certainly won't hurt, and they can always go back to the familiar if all else fails. 

Regardless, one thing is for certain: The Penguins can't tread water much longer with Crosby and Rust on the same line putting up the defensive numbers that they are. And it's probably best for the Penguins if they start exploring other options for what is supposed to be their best line right now. 

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