The Detroit Red Wings are having a season to remember as the franchise celebrates its centennial, marking 100 years of hockey in Detroit. In a season filled with nostalgia and renewed optimism, the Red Wings have also seen tangible progress on the ice, highlighted by the arrival of several top prospects who are beginning to make an impact at the NHL level.
Among the most encouraging developments has been the debut season of Emmitt Finnie and Axel Sandin-Pellikka, both of whom have stepped into professional roles and delivered strong early returns. Their performances have energized a fan base eager to see the next generation help push the team back into contention.
That excitement has been fueled by the standings as Detroit currently holds a 25-15-4 record, good for second place in the Atlantic Division. With that positioning comes the biggest question surrounding the team this season. Can the Red Wings finally end a playoff drought that has stretched close to a decade.
The path, however, is far from clear as the Atlantic Division is tightening as the Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs continue to heat up. Even the young and improving Montreal Canadiens remain in the mix, making the race for playoff spots one of the most competitive in the league. Every point will matter as the season moves toward its final months.
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Cup chances going into 2026 https://t.co/RbnckCMfDnpic.twitter.com/bISQHMnoOh
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) January 1, 2026
To add perspective to the playoff race, online hockey analytics site MoneyPuck has released its latest prediction model outlining each team’s chances of reaching the postseason and advancing beyond it. MoneyPuck is well known for its detailed statistical analysis, tracking underlying numbers such as expected goals, goaltending performance in high danger situations, individual line combinations, and team metrics like even strength goal differential above expected.
The model estimates each team’s probability of winning a game using historical NHL data and three core factors. Those factors include how often a team wins, the quality and quantity of scoring chances it creates and allows, and the strength of its goaltending. The system also adjusts for context such as shooting talent, recent performance without over weighting it, home ice advantage, rest, and goalie usage. Expected goals based simulations are then used to account for luck and uncertainty. Over time, the model has shown accuracy by correctly identifying game winners roughly 60 to 64 percent of the time.
According to MoneyPuck, the Red Wings currently have a 61.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. They are given a 27.3 percent chance to win at least one playoff round, an 11.9 percent chance to reach the Conference Finals, and a 5.2 percent chance to make the Stanley Cup Final. Their odds of winning the Stanley Cup sit at 2.3 percent.
MoneyPuck projects Detroit to finish the season with 95.4 points. The Red Wings have the highest likelihood of reaching the playoffs as either the second or third seed in the Atlantic at a combined 35.7 per cent, while their chances of winning the division stand at 7.7 per cent. They are also given an 18 per cent chance to qualify through one of the wild card spots.
While those numbers may not match the outlook of teams like the Colorado Avalanche, who are given a 100 per cent chance of making the playoffs, they still reflect meaningful progress. In fact, some teams such as the Ottawa Senators hold a higher projected chance of winning the Stanley Cup despite being unlikely to reach the postseason themselves.
For Detroit, the projections are another sign that the team is moving in the right direction. As the centennial season continues and the playoff race tightens, the Red Wings remain firmly in the hunt, giving fans plenty of reason to believe that this historic year could also mark the long awaited return to postseason hockey.
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