The Winnipeg Jets are enduring a season to forget as they sit with the league’s worst record at 15-21-5, and Tuesday night offered another painful reminder of how quickly things have unraveled. Winnipeg appeared poised to snap its skid after a late goal from Kyle Connor gave the Jets the lead, but the Vegas Golden Knights responded with a late Reilly Smith tally to force overtime before winning the game on a point shot.
The loss extended Winnipeg’s winless streak to ten games, and the frustration continues to mount. With each passing week, it is becoming increasingly clear that this season may be better served as a reset rather than a rescue mission. The focus is shifting toward evaluating prospects, assessing long term pieces on the roster, and beginning the groundwork for a retool aimed at next season and beyond.
That outlook is echoed by a new prediction model from online hockey analytics site MoneyPuck, which outlines each team’s chances of reaching the postseason and advancing through it or in Winnipeg’s case, the odds of landing the first overall pick in the NHL Draft. MoneyPuck is well known for its in depth statistical analysis, tracking metrics such as expected goals, goaltending results in high danger situations, individual line combinations, and team statistics like even strength goal differential above expected.
The model estimates each team’s probability of winning a game using historical NHL data and three primary factors. Those include how often a team wins, the quality and quantity of scoring chances it creates and allows, and the strength of its goaltending. Contextual adjustments are made for shooting talent, recent performance without over weighting it, home ice advantage, rest, and goalie usage. Expected goals based simulations are then used to account for luck and uncertainty. Over time, the model has proven accurate by correctly identifying game winners roughly 60 to 64 per cent of the time.
According to MoneyPuck, the Jets currently have just an 8.4 per cent chance of making the playoffs, the second lowest odds in the league behind the Vancouver Canucks. Winnipeg’s chances of advancing in the postseason fall well below one percent, with the model projecting the Jets to finish the season with roughly 79.6 points.
Cup chances going into 2026 https://t.co/RbnckCMfDnpic.twitter.com/bISQHMnoOh
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) January 1, 2026
That projection places Winnipeg near the bottom of the league standings, a difficult reality in the present but one that could offer hope for the future. This year’s draft class is viewed as one of the strongest in recent memory. MoneyPuck gives the Canucks the highest odds to land the first overall pick at 11.6 per cent, with the Jets close behind at 11.1 per cent.
Two of the top prospects expected to go in the top three of the upcoming NHL Draft are Canadian forward Gavin McKenna and Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg. Landing either player would provide the Jets with an immediate impact option who could help elevate the offense as early as next season. When paired with a more extensive look at current prospects in the system over the remainder of this season, Winnipeg could enter the offseason with greater clarity about its core and its needs.
If the model proves accurate, the outlook is troubling in the short term but promising in the long run. Jets fans could be watching the early stages of a reset that positions the franchise for sustained success. With a potential top draft pick and the ability to target scoring help in free agency, players like Nick Schmaltz or Alex Tuch could help accelerate a fast turnaround.
After making the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons but capturing only four playoff round wins, Winnipeg may finally be forced to take a step back in order to move forward. While this season continues to test patience, it could ultimately lay the foundation for a brighter and more competitive future.
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