Carlo trade has been a home run for Bruins, and it could get even better originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Toronto Maple Leafs should probably stop trading with the Boston Bruins. Many of these deals have backfired tremendously for Toronto, especially over the last 20 years.
The Andrew Raycroft-for-Tuukka Rask swap in 2006 was a disaster for Toronto. The Phil Kessel trade in 2009 that gave the Bruins two top-10 picks (Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton) was a bad one for the Leafs. Even the Tomas Kaberle trade in 2011 ended up being a swing-and-a-miss for the Leafs despite the veteran defenseman being mostly underwhelming during his short time with the Bruins. The B’s did win the Stanley Cup a few months after that deal.
The latest example is the Brandon Carlo deal that was made just before the NHL trade deadline on March 7 of last year. Carlo has largely been a disappointment for the Leafs with five points in 33 games this season.
In case you forgot, here are the details of the 2025 trade:
- Leafs receive: Brandon Carlo
- Bruins receive: Fraser Minten, 2026 first-round pick (top-five protected), 2025 fourth-round pick
Let’s start with Minten.
He has blossomed into a productive two-way center after getting a chance to play regular NHL minutes. Minten was Toronto’s second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2022, and he played in just 21 games for the Leafs over the last two seasons before being dealt to Boston. Not only did Minten make the Opening Night roster, he has cemented himself as a key part of the Bruins lineup.
Minten has tallied 29 points (14 goals, 15 assists) in 56 games. He has a very realistic chance to score 20-plus goals. One of the reasons why the Bruins had the league’s second-best record in January was Minten’s improved offensive production. He posted 14 points (eight goals, six assists) in 14 games, including a three-point performance in a win over the Philadelphia Flyers last Thursday. He was also named the NHL’s Rookie of the Month for January.
“(Minten) was a steal for us,” Bruins head coach Marco Sturm told reporters on Jan. 30. “He just has that quality, I would say, to be up and down the lineup right away at his early age.”
Minten is improving as a scorer, he’s responsible defensively, he kills penalties, he’s played on the power play of late, and he plays with a high hockey IQ. Could he become a top-six center long term? It’s definitely possible, but at the very least he should be a strong No. 3 center for quite a while.
The Bruins desperately needed a boost at center following the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Minten and 2025 first-round pick James Hagens have given the B’s some hope at that position going forward.
Another important aspect of the Carlo trade that has been great for the Bruins is the 2026 first-round pick they acquired.
The Leafs have reached the Stanley Cup Playoffs in nine consecutive seasons, but that streak is in serious jeopardy of ending this year. Toronto entered Tuesday with the 12th-worst record in the league based on points percentage. The Leafs are seven points behind the Bruins for the second and final wild card playoff berth in the Eastern Conference.
If the Leafs miss the playoffs, the Bruins could get a lottery pick to close out this trade. The 2026 selection sent from Toronto is top-five protected, so it would need to fall outside of that range to go to the Bruins in 2026, but the odds are in Boston’s favor. And that would be a huge coup for the Bruins when you look at all of the high-end defenseman prospects who could be available in the No. 6 to No. 12 pick range in the upcoming draft.
In summary, the Bruins got a 21-year-old center who could tally 50-plus points in his first full NHL season, plus a potential lottery pick from one of their biggest rivals (inside the division, too) for an aging defenseman who has not lived up to expectations on his new team.
Bruins general manager Don Sweeeny has his faults. His draft record isn’t sparkling (although it’s improved lately) and he’s missed on plenty of free agents. But his trade record is phenomenal, and this deal with the Maple Leafs has been a massive home run for Boston so far.
And depending on where that 2026 Leafs first-round pick lands, the trade could get even sweeter for the Bruins. Get ready for “Leafs pick watch” in March and April.