The age of reliable goaltending in fantasy hockey is over. And perhaps the age of elite goaltending altogether is on its way out. When you think of elite goaltenders in the NHL right now, a handful of names come to mind. Connor Hellebuyck is the first, followed by Andrei Vasilevskiy, Ilya Sorokin, Igor Shesterkin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Others who deserve to be in the conversation include Jake Oettinger, Juuse Saros and perhaps John Gibson in a resurgent season. But some of those goalies are aging and close to retirement. Others are trapped in poor team environments, going through a rebuild. A few are just somewhere in the middle, experiencing a bout of bad play or puck luck.
It happens in hockey. It’s a whacky game.
Variance. Volatility. These are words we throw out a lot when analyzing fantasy sports. There is always a range of outcomes going into a draft when figuring out which players to select. Some positions are going to be easier to sift through than others. Some are going to be tougher given the lack of options or quality at a particular position. At the end of the day, we’re never going to be 100% correct all the time, but we’d like to be right some of the time. That is becoming increasingly difficult at the goaltender position in fantasy hockey, so much so that it may be time to rethink the way we approach drafting the position moving forward.
Think of how you would approach drafting in fantasy football. There’s an argument to be made for waiting on positions like QB and TE, strategies that are proven to be very effective. So why aren’t we adopting these philosophies for hockey? We still rank goalies among the top players and suggest they should go as high as the first round. If we look at tight end in football, this can work out with players like Trey McBride. It can also backfire with players like Brock Bowers; there are similar parallels when we look at both sports.
But with goaltenders in hockey, there’s less of a pool, fewer roster spots and an insane amount of variance and volatility to take into account compared to football. It’s my belief that we need to stop investing so heavily in goaltenders at the top of drafts — shoot, even in the middle of the draft. And we’re going to get into why as you prep for the rest of the season with the NHL returning on Wednesday and the playoffs around the corner.
First, however, I want to talk about one man and five syllables (No, I’m not talking about Der-ek Zoo-lan-der). I’m talking about Con-nor Hell-e-buyck. Winnipeg Jets goalie, and reigning Hart and Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck. Who is fresh off a gold medal for Team USA at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy.
Not even the best in the world is safe
While watching the United States win the gold medal over Canada in the men’s hockey final at the Olympics on Sunday, I couldn’t help but think, “How is a player of this caliber experiencing such a poor season in the NHL?”
Hellebuyck stood on his head in the final, making 41 saves to help the USA win gold for the first time in 46 years. But until he took off on that plane to head to Italy to compete, Hellebuyck was in the midst of one of the more disappointing regression seasons of all time for a goalie.
One could simply point to Hellebuyck’s 2025-26 as a clear indicator that goaltending is too volatile to invest too heavily in for fantasy hockey. Last season, Hellebuyck led the NHL in wins (47), goals-against average (2.00), shutouts (8), goals saved above average (41.6), adjusted goals against average (2.13) and goalie point shares (14.5), en route to winning his third Vezina Trophy and first Hart Trophy as MVP. We’ve seen just nine goalies win the Hart in NHL history, dating back to 1923.
But this season, you’d think Hellebuyck was a completely different player up until we saw him put on a show at the Olympics. So what does this tell us? That a fantasy goalie is only as good as the sum of his parts. As we come out of the Olympic break, the Jets goalie has these marks: 13 wins, 2.79 GAA, .900 SV%, no shutouts and just 19 quality starts in 36 games.
You could point to the Jets’ blue line, specifically Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg and Colin Miller, all missing time. Plus, natural regression from aging forwards and the rigors of this season’s condensed schedule. The West has also seen a few teams emerge; the Mammoth, Ducks, Sharks, Predators and Kraken are all improved. But if you asked anyone before the season if they saw this type of regression coming from the Jets, who won the Presidents’ Trophy with 116 points last season, they’d probably tell you: “Not like this … not like this.”
Hellebuyck entered the season as the consensus, no-doubt No. 1 goalie in fantasy. Even as play opens back up on Wednesday, Helly is considered a top-five fantasy goalie. But why? The Jets have 26 games left and it may be difficult for him to even break 20 wins this season, something that hasn’t happened since Hellebuyck was a rookie in 2015-16. Sure, he’s going to get plenty of starts but also could be gassed from winning gold. When the dust settles on 2025-26, I’ll be interested to see if Hellebuyck even finishes as a G2 in fantasy hockey.
But if we’re looking ahead to next season, and Hellebuyck is still considered the top goalie choice, there’s no way I’m investing a first-round pick unless the Jets make vast improvements this offseason. Even then, it feels like he’ll be a massive risk coming off a season like this at age 33.
Historical and recent trends
We’ve seen goalie stats league-wide get worse and worse since the NHL decided to change the size of pads to increase scoring. We saw a big jump in league-wide goals-against average from 2.59 in 2016-17 to 2.78 the following season. Average save percentage has steadily decreased from .913 in 2016-17 to .908 in 2020-21 and .900 last season. Right now, league-average SV% is at .896 as we head into the final stretch of the regular season. If that holds, it will be the lowest average SV% league-wide since 1993-94 (.895).
This downward trend doesn’t appear to be a product of the lack of talent at the goalie position. It feels more like a lack of importance. And we can point to a few teams at the top of the Pacific Division to make this argument — the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers.
The Knights have been without Adin Hill due to injury. Between Hill, Akira Schmid, Carter Hart and Carl Lindbom, you have 27 wins, a 3.04 GAA and .882 SV%. Schmid entered this season ranked 41st among goalies in Yahoo analyst Scott Pianowski’s rankings. That isn’t to say the ranking was wrong; it’s simply pointing out how difficult it is to predict what will happen at the position. Sure, if Hill is healthy, he’s likely among the top-12 goalies in fantasy. But again, this points back to the unpredictability at the position.
Similarly, the Oilers have operated with a four-headed monster featuring Stuart Skinner (since traded to PIT), Calvin Pickard, Connor Ingram and Tristan Jarry. Their collective numbers? That would be 28 wins, a 3.29 GAA and .883 SV%. Having superstars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on your roster can really buoy the other positions. Plus, from a cap perspective, the Oilers have to get by on cheap goaltending.
Can you find reliable streams among those two groups? Absolutely. And it shows that when injuries happen and play is inconsistent, teams are fine existing (and even sustaining) within these time-shares. It takes more work but it’s becoming tougher to simply plug in a goalie and hope for the best all season. You have to adjust.
Schmid has been startable most of the season. Ingram and Jarry have had their moments and Skinner has really thrived in Pittsburgh. So, while it may be difficult, there are goalies we can pluck from these situations to help your fantasy team without spending high draft capital.
Below is a list of every goalie taken within the first 100 picks based on ADP in Yahoo leagues before the season. Seven of the 17 goalies are ranked inside the top 12 at the position in Yahoo points leagues. The others? Well, you can see how they’re doing. It’s a mix of players who are underperforming, injured or are on teams that aren’t very good.
Goalie | Current Rank |
Connor Hellebuyck, WPG | G17 |
Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL | G1 |
Jake Oettinger, DAL | G12 |
Igor Shesterkin, NYR (INJ) | G11 |
Mackenzie Blackwood, COL | G26 |
Sergei Bobrovsky, FLA | G29 |
Filip Gustavsson, MIN | G8 |
Darcy Kuemper, LAK | G20 |
Adin Hill, VGK (INJ) | G71 |
Anthony Stolarz, TOR (INJ) | G58 |
Ilya Sorokin, NYI | G2 |
Logan Thompson, WSH | G4 |
Dustin Wolf, CGY | G14 |
Jacob Markstrom, NJD | G37 |
Linus Ullmark, OTT (INJ) | G34 |
Jordan Binnington, STL | G55 |
Juuse Saros, NSH | G10 |
Outside of Vasilevskiy, goalies taken at the top of drafts have mostly underperformed. Oettinger has been outplayed by backup Casey DeSmith on a quality Stars team. Bobrovsky and the Panthers have had bad injury luck — to be expected, after three straight trips to the Cup Final. Shesterkin is hurt and the Rangers have admitted they need to rebuild.
Moving further down that list, we see some injuries and regression from Kuemper, then we land on a few bright spots with Sorokin and Thompson, though each was selected around the 5-6 rounds on average. Markstrom and Binnington are victims of the teams in front of them. Saros benefits from volume, tied for the league lead in games played at the position at the break with 44.
Now, let’s take a look at goalies who rank among the top 24 in points leagues who were selected outside the top-100 picks on Yahoo:
Goalie | Current Rank |
Karel Vejmelka, UTA | G3 |
Jet Greaves, CBJ | G5 |
Jeremy Swayman, BOS | G6 |
Spencer Knight, CHI | G7 |
John Gibson, DET | G9 |
Lukas Dostal, ANA | G13 |
Scott Wedgewood, COL | G15 |
Jesper Wallstedt, MIN | G19 |
Dan Vladar, PHI | G21 |
Stuart Skinner, PIT | G23 |
What do a lot of these goalies have in common? They’re mostly from teams that have surprised this season. Vejmelka on the Mammoth, Gibson on the Red Wings, Dostal on the Ducks, Greaves on the Jackets, Swayman on the B’s, Knight for the ‘Hawks. Those teams have exceeded preseason expectations and their goalies are reaping the benefits. If you took a shot on one or more of those goalies late in your draft, you’re in good shape as the playoffs approach. And it’s not like it’s uncommon; clearly, we’re seeing it enough that we can take multiple shots on players like this at the backend of your draft.
Others, like Wedgewood and Wallstedt, are backups who are on good teams. The Avalanche were without Mackenzie Blackwood to start the season and Wedgewood stepped up and has helped fantasy managers immensely this season. With Blackwood healthy, Wedgewood may not see as many starts, but he’s an example of a player who can bridge the gap for you as you navigate the season.
Gustavsson struggled out of the gate for the Wild and Wallstedt picked up the slack early in the season. But if you targeted both goalies in your draft rather than spending a high pick on one of the “elite” players, you got yourself a solid tandem.
Even names like Brandon Bussi on the Hurricanes and Alex Lyon for Buffalo don’t pop up in those lists above but are carrying managers into the postseason.
How to approach drafts next season
So, after all of this, what should you be doing going into your 2026-27 draft? Well, we’re going to wait on goaltender and use our high draft capital on elite forwards and defensemen. It’s tougher to find sleepers at those positions, particularly on the blue line. We want to shore up those positions early on.
Think of it in terms of the quarterback position in fantasy football. We don’t generally target QBs until around the second or third round at best. This past season showed us that we can wait at QB and find plenty of value: Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence — the list goes on and on.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2026 MLB season]
So let’s carry this over into hockey, taking 3-4 shots late in your draft on players who fit some of the trends we mentioned above. Perhaps it’s a backup who could be in a split situation on a good team. Maybe it’s a goalie we know is going to get the majority of the starts on a team that should be improved based on the offseason. Use your resources, absorb as much analysis as possible, both fantasy and real-life. We know that we can find quality goaltending just as often after the first 100 picks as inside the top 100. Play the numbers and stay aggressive on the waiver wire and there’s no reason you can’t be successful.
Goaltending is becoming less and less paramount in the regular season and it’s time for fantasy managers to follow suit, given the uncertainty and risk that comes with the position.