With the 2025 NHL Entry Draft one month out, there will be a lot of decisions for teams to make about scouting, players, trades, and more.
And one huge decision involves the Pittsburgh Penguins.
On Jan. 31, the Penguins acquired a conditional first-round pick from the Vancouver Canucks as part of the deal that sent defenseman Marcus Pettersson and forward Drew O'Connor to Vancouver. The first-rounder was actually from the New York Rangers, who shipped it to Vancouver in the J.T. Miller blockbuster on the same day.
The conditions on the first-round pick involved top-13 protection in 2025 for the Rangers as well as the option to defer the pick as an unprotected 2026 first. Since New York is in the 12th overall slot for the draft, they can choose to keep the pick this year if they so desire.
And there are arguments on both sides as to why they should keep it or defer it.
Why they should keep it
Simply put, the Rangers aren't really putting themselves in any position to be tanking right now.
Sure, they could try to tank for Gavin McKenna next season. But, then, why trade for Miller? Why hire Mike Sullivan, a win-now coach? Why make the priority retooling this summer?
With a roster that is just beginning to age out and a goaltender making $11 million, the Rangers almost have no choice but to maximize the window that they're in. They followed up a President's Trophy-winning campaign in 2023-24 with a dud of a season, but with some reshuffling, they may still be able to contend.
Deferring the pick to 2026 signals to your roster, your coach, and your organization that you don't necessarily believe you'll be better next season. Is that really the message the Rangers want to send to their players this offseason? That they're counting on a potential lottery pick?
No, probably not. Even though the draft is deeper next season, they should grab a good player at 12th overall, especially since next year's pick may be way later than 12.
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Why they should defer it
The argument could be made here that the 2026 draft is simply deeper - by most accounts, it is - and, even if the Rangers finish mid-teens to early-20s in draft order, they'll still be getting a very good player. It could also be argued that there's no guarantee they won't be worse next season.
But beyond that, there is another sticking point: the 2026 NHL trade deadline.
If the Rangers decide to defer the pick to 2026, that means they'll have that first to leverage should they be in position to do so. If they retool their roster in the offseason and find themselves in the playoff mix in February next year, they may be looking for that one final piece to give them a leg up in competitive advantage.
And because the 2026 draft is deep, that pick should hold a fair amount of value, even if it's a mid-late first.
Deferring the pick allows them to be reactive to however their season goes in 2025-26 rather than being stuck in no-man's land if they end up being worse next season. If they're fighting for a playoff spot at the deadline, they can use the pick to acquire talent. If they're near the basement at that time, they can keep it and, potentially, be in the lottery conversation.
When looking at the pick from a value standpoint, deferring it and allowing the Penguins to have the 2025 pick makes a degree of sense.
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