We’re less than two weeks away from Round 1 of the 2025 NHL entry draft, and speculation about the teams at the top of the draft is starting to percolate. Let’s look at each of the top-five teams and see if there’s a chance one of them, a few of them, or none of them choose to move their pick in a trade.
At the very top, the New York Islanders are highly likely to retain the first-overall pick and select consensus No. 1 prospect Matthew Schaefer. The Isles haven’t had a truly elite young asset like the blueliner in many years, and Schaefer fills an obvious need on Long Island. We suppose new Islanders GM Mathieu Darche could be bowled over by a blockbuster-level trade offer, but it’s far more likely he hangs onto the pick and adds a cornerstone D-man for the next decade-and-a-half. It would be a massive shock if the Isles traded the top pick, but we don’t believe that will happen.
In the second-overall position are the San Jose Sharks. They’re in the midst of a full rebuild, and even with up-and-coming forwards Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith already in tow, the Sharks aren’t in a position where they can trade a high-end draft pick. The likely pick here is OHL star center Michael Misa, and San Jose will almost assuredly select him to give them terrific depth down the middle (along with center Celebrini). The Sharks dealing the pick is a long shot, as it makes much more sense to hold onto it and continue their focus on the long-term good of the team.
At the third spot is where, for us, things get rather interesting. The Chicago Blackhawks continued to struggle this season, and despite having budding star center Connor Bedard in their midst, the Hawks haven’t been able to put great stretches of hockey together. They’re also starting to show signs that they want to be a playoff team sooner rather than later.
Chicago replaced interim coach Anders Sorensen with former Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill, and GM Kyle Davidson is likely to be open to pitches from teams who are interested in selecting a talent like Swedish center Anton Frondell. That said, the Blackhawks could just as easily decide to bring Frondell aboard and improve their own depth down the middle, but we can see a scenario in which Chicago acquires a proven above-average player in return for the third pick.
In fourth place in the draft is the Utah Mammoth, a franchise desperate to be a playoff team next year. The Mammoth have had a wealth of young players, and although it would suit them fine to keep the fourth pick and add someone like QMJHL center Caleb Desnoyers, we believe Utah GM Bill Armstrong is open for business when it comes to trades, and that could include moving this pick.
Armstrong would need to get an experienced, demonstrably-consistent NHLer if he were to trade the pick, but there may be teams out there who value Desnoyers’ offensive dominance and want to land him for the long haul. With all that said, of all the teams in the top five, we see the Mammoth as most likely to trade their pick. They need to take a big step forward this season, and landing proven NHL talent in a trade for the fourth pick could be too alluring for Armstrong to pass on.
Finally, in fifth spot is the Nashville Predators, a team with a lifelong history of never winding up with a top-five pick. They’re not guaranteed to get a needle-mover with this selection, but there’s great promise with players projected to be available at No. 5 – most notably, Boston College center James Hagens or OHL winger Porter Martone. Either of those players may go higher in the draft, but they’re surefire NHL-caliber talents, and an infusion of the youthful vigor they’d bring would be terrific for a Preds team that needs to establish a new era with high-quality youngsters.
Trading the pick might make sense in the short term as Nashville attempts to get back into the playoff picture next season, but the smarter move for them is to retain the fifth-overall pick and add a competitor with a high upside. And we suspect Preds GM Barry Trotz won’t be overly tempted by trade offers and instead keep the fifth-overall pick.
In sum, we see the Mammoth as the top-five team most likely to trade its pick, followed in order by the Blackhawks, Predators, Sharks and Islanders. If we were harboring a guess, we’d say that it’s most likely that many, if not all, of the top-five teams keep their pick, but stranger things have happened than a draft-day blockbuster trade. And in that regard, Utah and Chicago in particular should be watched closely to see if they make a deal that takes them out of the top five in exchange for talent that can help them right away.
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