EDMONTON – The cat’s out of the bag.
The Edmonton Oilers are in a pickle – and not the kind you slap on a burger.
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Stan Bowman has identified goaltending as one of the areas where improvement is needed. That’s easier said than done, especially when 31 other GMs know about.
But there is no question that the Oilers need an upgrade to either Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard.
For the sake of this article, we’ll focus on the NHL Edge data surrounding High Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%) and Mid-Range Save Percentage (MRSV%). We’ll look at what the league average is, what Skinner and Pickard have provided, and five different options that offer an upgrade for one of the two.
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Skinner, Pickard, And League Average Goaltending
According to the NHL Edge Data, the league average HDSV% was .803 while the average for MRSV% was .887. In the very least, one of their goaltenders should hit these benchmarks. If they had two goalies close to it (with at least one exceeding it) that should be the bare minimum.
Skinner had a HDSV% of .791 while Pickard’s was .794. Skinner had a MRSV% of .902 while Pickard’s was .866. Only Skinner’s MRSV% was higher than league average. For the Oilers to have more reliable goaltending in the regular season and playoffs, they need more consistent performers in these metrics.
Three Back-Up Goalie Upgrades
One strategy the Oilers could employ is to replace Pickard. The likliest way this happens is acquiring another low-cost goaltender who will either push Pickard to perform better, or out-perform him and force him down the depth chart.
Ideally, this is also a goaltender who could play up to 40 games, serving as a potential 1B to Skinner’s 1A, should history repeat itself.
Casey DeSmith
Casey DeSmith is currently serving backup to the Dallas Stars starting phenom netminder, Jake Oettinger. He’s made a career of this, with 33 starts being his career-high from the 2022-23 season.
In 2024-25, he recorded an .834 HDSV% and a .933 MRSV%. Both of these numbers look fantastic on paper. He had similar numbers two years ago despite having a significantly worse Goals Against Average and overall save percentage.
Alex Lyon
At the time of this writing, the Detroit Red Wings have not re-signed goalie Alex Lyon. It’s entirely possible that they won’t, especially with Petr Mrazek and Cam Talbot already the more experienced veterans under contract.
If Lyon is a free agent, he could be a low-cost addition that can push to work in tandem with Skinner. Lyon started 26 games this past season and 43 games the year prior. He finished the most recent season with a HDSV% of .807 and a MRSV% of .910.
Jake Allen
Jake Allen had a great season serving as backup to Jacob Markstrom for the New Jersey Devils. He finished the year with a HDSV% of .801 and a MRSV% of .938. While his high-danger number was a touch below average, overall he exceeded league average.
The only problem with Allen as a potential suitor is that he is the belle of this year’s free agent goaltending ball – who will have no shortage of team’s calling his representation to swoon him to their organization.
Two Starter Upgrades
These two goaltenders are players who could replace Skinner. They could also replace Pickard and potentially force Skinner to serve as a backup (or 1B).
Joseph Woll
Joseph Woll has been a solid goaltender for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Last year, he recorded a .809 HDSV% to go along with a .912 MRSV%. The year previous, he posted a .829 HDSV% and a .919 SV%. Woll started 41 games this past season and 23 the season before.
The tricky thing here is that a trade would need to be executed between the two teams. That might be difficult to execute when the Maple Leafs don’t have a star goaltender waiting in the wings.
Ilya Sorokin
The ultimate goaltedning upgrade the Oilers could conceive is acquiring Ilya Sorokin from the New York Islanders.
Sorokin burst onto the scene in 2020-21. Outside of that rookie season, where he only started 21 games, he’s started in at least 52 games in the four seasons after.
He’s had two down years since his Vezina-Finalist season in 2022-23. Despite the last two seasons being down years by Sorokin’s standard’s, they would be better than the goaltending the Oilers have gotten.
In 2023-24, Sorokin had a HDSV% of .828 and a MRSV% of .879. Last year, he had an .828 HDSV% (again) to go along with a .890 MRSV%. The biggest positive with these results is the consistent HDSV%.
However, prying Sorokin from the cold-dead-hands of the Islanders is a monumental task. To get a trade like that completed most likely means that the Oilers would need to part with at least one of their best prospects, one or two first-round draft picks, and Skinner.
Luckily for the Oilers, they have the next couple of months to figure out how to get out of this untasty pickle they find themselves in.
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