Why Five NHL Vezina Trophy Favorites Could Or Couldn't Win

The goaltender is arguably the most important position in hockey. Across the NHL, there are several elite netminders, guiding their respective teams to victory.

At the end of every season, the best goaltender is awarded the Vezina Trophy. The winner is decided by a vote consisting of all 32 GMs in the NHL.

While it may be too early for anyone to confidently predict the winner of the 2025-26 Vezina Trophy, BetMGM has the futures odds. The goalies with the top five odds are on another tier from the rest.

Here’s why these five candidates could and couldn’t be crowned goaltender of the year.

Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets

It should surprise no one that the 2024-25 Hart Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck, is the odds-on favorite on BetMGM to win the Vezina Trophy next season, at 4.10 odds (+310). 

Why he could win: The Winnipeg Jets goaltender has proved to be the best in the NHL over the last two seasons. He’s won the Vezina Trophy in both seasons, and he will go for his third straight and fourth total.

Among goaltenders who have played at least 25 games last season, Hellebuyck led the NHL in goals-against average (2.00) and was second best in save percentage (.925 percent).

Why he couldn’t win: Winning the Vezina as many times as he did forces Hellebuyck to continuously outperform his peers between the pipes. The 32-year-old has put himself on a pedestal, and the moment he can’t play up to his standards, even if it is above-average in comparison to the rest of the NHL, he could lose his title. Other top-tier goalies can put up an excellent season as well.

Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers

Igor Shesterkin is entering his seventh season with the New York Rangers and his first under his new contract extension, which is worth a goalie-high $11.5 million per year. His odds of winning the Vezina this upcoming season are 7.75 (+675).

Why he could win: Shesterkin has won the Vezina Trophy before. It was in the 2021-22 season when he recorded a 2.07 GAA and a .935 SP. Since that campaign, Shesterkin has had two top-10 Vezina finishes. He ranked seventh in the NHL in goals saved above expected last season, with 21.6, according to moneypuck.com, even though he had somewhat of a down year by his standard.

Why he couldn’t win: Shesterkin's goals against average and save percentage have regressed since winning the Vezina in 2022. Last season, he ended with a .905 SP and 2.86 GAA, the worst of his career so far. Those numbers aren't respectable for a Vezina candidate.

Five NHL Goaltenders With The Most To Prove In 2025-26Five NHL Goaltenders With The Most To Prove In 2025-26With the skill level and speed at which the current game is played, NHL goaltenders have struggled to perform at a high level season-to-season.

Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning

Following his fellow Russian, BetMGM lists Andrei Vasilevskiy with 8.50 odds (+750) to win the Vezina. 

Why he could win: Vasilevskiy has been in the Vezina Trophy conversation for nearly his entire career. Besides winning it in 2018-19, the Tampa Bay Lightning netminder has had six other top-10 finishes for the award, four of them in the top three.

To win this trophy, goalies need help from teammates, and it’s no secret that the Lightning are a top team. Since Vasilevskiy’s NHL debut, Tampa Bay has only missed the playoffs once.

Why he couldn’t win: While the 31-year-old has been an elite goaltender for years, the Lightning have been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs for three straight years now, which could be a sign of the team getting weaker. That could ultimately affect Vasilevskiy’s numbers and chances at earning his second career Vezina.

Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars

Devan Dubnyk's predicted winner for the Vezina Trophy, Jake Oettinger, has 16.00 odds (+1500) of winning the award for the first time in 2025-26.

Why he could win: For the last few years, the Stars have been one of the best teams in the league, making the Western Conference final for three straight seasons. With Oettinger being just as impressive as Dallas’ D-corpsand the rest of his team, it’s a great recipe for him to stand out in the list of top goaltenders in the NHL.

Why he couldn’t win: Even though the 26-year-old has been consistently solid for the Stars, he needs to reach the next level and be consistently elite. All the winners of the Vezina Trophy in the last five years have recorded a .920 SP or better. Oettinger has not been able to reach that level just yet. Last year's 2.59 GAA and .909 SP aren't strong enough.

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Dustin Wolf, Calgary Flames

Coming off an impressive rookie campaign, Dustin Wolf of the Calgary Flames has 19.00 odds (+1800) of winning the Vezina in his sophomore season.

Why he could win: Wolf will have to use his underdog title to his advantage in the race to win the 2025-26 Vezina Trophy. While it may feel like a long shot, he could be considered for the award with a stellar season. He was tied for the 10th-best save percentage (.910) last season, so if he continues to trend upward, he can reach another level.

Why he couldn’t win: The 24-year-old is going into his sophomore season. It’ll be a tremendous challenge for him to enter the conversation of the Vezina Trophy, never mind winning the award outright, especially considering opponents scouted him in his rookie year.

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