On Thursday, the Pittsburgh Penguins will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in Florida, as Pittsburgh looks to hold onto its playoff positioning and Tampa looks to extend its Atlantic Division lead.
But there is another storyline as well.
For the fifth time, the Penguins will face their former teammate Jake Guentzel, who was dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes at the 2024 trade deadline and was subsequently traded to then signed by the Lightning the following summer. In four games against Pittsburgh, Guentzel has notched no goals and three assists.
At the time, the Guentzel trade definitely seemed to be one focused on quantity rather than quality, although the jury is still out on that with a few promising prospects dealt as part of that trade.
In fact, let's revisit where the Guentzel trade tree has extended so far:
- Mar. 8, 2024: Penguins acquire forwards Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasily Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, and conditional first-round and fifth-round draft picks from the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for forward Jake Guentzel and defenseman Ty Smith
- Jun. 29, 2024: Penguins use conditional first-round pick acquired from Hurricanes (condition not met) to draft defenseman Harrison Brunicke 44th overall in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft.
- Jun. 30, 2024: Hurricanes acquire 2025 third-round pick from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Guentzel
- Jul. 1, 2024: Guentzel signs seven-year, $63 million contract with Lightning
- Mar. 6, 2025: Penguins acquire forward Tommy Novak and defenseman Luke Schenn from the Nashville Predators in exchange for Bunting and a 2026 fourth-round pick
- Mar. 7, 2025: Penguins acquire a 2026 second-round pick and a 2027 fourth-round pick from the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for Schenn
- Jun. 28, 2025: Hurricanes use third-round pick acquired from Lightning to draft defenseman Roman Bausov 87th overall in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft
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Winner: Tampa Bay Lightning
There's no doubt that Tampa Bay is the clear winner in this trade tree scenario, as they ended up acquiring a perennial 30-40 goal-scorer for only a third-round pick due to his unrestricted free agent status. No matter how you slice it, Tampa has - so far - come out on top of this trade tree
Biggest loser: Carolina Hurricanes
It's certainly not ideal to lose Guentzel to a trade for unrestricted free agency rights and net only a third-round pick in return. Carolina not only lost a perennial 30-40 goal-scorer, but they also lost a potential top-six winger in Koivunen and the second-round selection that led to the Penguins getting Brunicke, who has a ceiling as a top-pairing defenseman. Carolina lost this one, and they lost big.
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It's very hard to replace a point-per-game, perennial 30-40 goal-scorer. Even with unrestricted free agency, trading a player of that caliber typically requires at least a first-round pick, which Penguins' GM/POHO Kyle Dubas failed to secure.
However, the Penguins probably got first-round value out of Brunicke, Koivunen's stock has risen since joining the organization, Lucius is playing well at the NCAA level, Novak has been a serviceable player for Pittsburgh, and they still have some picks at their disposal - which is good news, considering how Dubas and Wes Clark have fared in drafting up to this point.
Regardless, it will be interesting to see how this trade tree continues to play out and if there are any more surprises in store with it.
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