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Power-play production is a difference maker in fantasy hockey. But it's easy to glance at historical trends and think you know exactly which guys to pick. I did that. Again and again. I did it the first four times I cut the NHL's historical power-play data. 

Every analysis of three-year data produced a different ranking. Each time, it felt like something was missing. But the fifth time's a charm. OK, so that's two more than the old saying. But it fits in my case. And yes, I'm a data nerd. I love a good regression analysis. IYKYK. But I digress.

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And yah yah, I know — you'll lose your spleen when you see the Oilers are 10th on this list. Aren't they supposed to be the class of the NHL? Quite frankly, they drop off the list with Thursday's news that Zach Hyman is out until November. I cut this data before that news. Andrew Mangiapane is no Hyman. 

So, how did I get to this ranking? These projections are based on the following inputs:

1. Three-year opportunity trend(volume patterns — stable/improvement/decline?)

2. Efficiency trajectory (are there conversion rate improvements/declines?)

3. Roster change impacts(Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk injury)

4. Coaching system changes(Rick Tocchet/Adam Foote transition)

5. Short-handed goals against trends(defensive system stability … or not)

Opportunity can be based on luck, even if people talk about how good a team is at drawing penalties. But a three-year period can show interesting trends. Efficiency is a much better measure because it shows how well a team executes on the power play, irrespective of opportunity. Put consistently high volume together with high efficiency, and your team is gold.  

Roster changes, especially the addition of a superstar, can make a big impact on both volume and efficiency. New coaches mean new systems for both the team they left and the one they joined. And shorthanded-goals-against efficiency speaks to system strength. A strong system buffers fluctuations in volume by keeping shorthanded goals down.

Let's take a look. 

Tier 1: Elite PPG Production (65+ Goals Projected)

1. Vegas Golden Knights: 70-75 Projected PPG

PP1: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Shea Theodore

The Golden Knights are the class of the NHL. They're a lower-volume team with improving efficiency, especially last season, and excellent defensive structure. Adding an elite playmaker like Mitch Marner in an ideal system for him means a 15-20 PPG boost this season. Boom.

Opportunity projection: 195-205 (maintaining recent volume)

Efficiency projection: 32-35% (elite playmaker impact, a.k.a. The Mitch Effect)

Risk factors: Marner's integration timeline, opportunity sustainability

2. Detroit Red Wings: 68-72 PPG

PP1: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider

Yes, I was gobsmacked by this rank, too. The Red Wings have missed the playoffs for nine straight seasons. But their efficiency has been consistently improving year over year, and they get a lot of opportunities. This combination actually makes them the most reliable projection on the list. Go figure. Maybe the YzerPlan is working. 

Opportunity projection: 240-250 (maintaining high volume)

Efficiency projection: 27-29% (continued ascension)

Risk factors: None significant — who knew?

3. Dallas Stars: 68-72 PPG

PP1: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnson, Thomas Harley/Miro Heiskanen

The Stars have a strong defensive base, but the team has been in a slow and steady power-play decline. Enter Mikko Rantanen, whose elite finishing reverses that trend. The real question is which defender runs the show. Both Harley and Heiskanen bring skills that can make the top unit soar. 

Opportunity projection: 250-260 (aggressive style with elite talent)

Efficiency projection: 26-28% (The Rantanen Effect reverses declining efficiency)

Risk factors: Very few unless opportunity generation lags

4. New Jersey Devils: 65-70 PPG

PP1: Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton/Luke Hughes

The Devils are the poster child for improving efficiency (20%→22.5%→28.2%). And that, coupled with stable opportunities, means goals, goals, goals. This ranking isn't without risk. Luke Hughes isn't in camp because of a contract dispute, and that casts a bit of a pall. And there's always a risk of stepping back. But I really like this group. 

Opportunity projection: 220-230 (slight increase from young team aggression/The Hughes Effect)

Efficiency projection: 28-30% (sustaining breakthrough performance)

Risk factors: Sophomore slump potential, regression to the mean

Tier 2: High PPG Production (60-67 Projected Goals)

5. Winnipeg Jets: 65-68 PPG

PP1: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti, Josh Morrissey

The Jets have system stability coupled with consistent opportunity, and I think they can sustain their elite efficiency. Their breakout in 2024-25 was real. 

Opportunity projection: 225-235 (maintaining recent levels)

Efficiency projection: 27-29% (sustaining elite efficiency)

6. Tampa Bay Lightning: 65-70 PPG

PP1: Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel

The Lightning are a historically elite power-play producer. But that masks a significant defensive vulnerability (11→6→13 SHGA). Tightening up the system even a touch moves them back into Tier 1.  

Opportunity projection: 240-250 (high-volume system)

Efficiency projection: 26-28% (return to form)

7. Colorado Avalanche: 62-65 PPG

PP1: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar

The Avs have a star-studded cast with remarkable consistency and high-volume opportunities (261→278→234). The fly in the proverbial ointment is Gabriel Landeskog, who missed three seasons following cartilage transplant surgery. He's a star, but the game he knew has disappeared. Still, the power play may be the perfect deployment for a one-legged wonder.

Opportunity projection: 250-260 (aggressive style maintenance)

Efficiency projection: 24-26% (steady performance)

8. Pittsburgh Penguins: 60-65 PPG

PP1: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, Kris Letang/Erik Karlsson

Yes, the Pens are aging. But Sid the Kid and Geno are still stars, and the team recovered after an abysmal 2023-24. They still didn't make the playoffs in 2024-25, but they did rebound nicely on the power play. And that should carry forward. Either Kris Letang or Erik Karlsson will power the point; both will deliver similar totals with risk. 

Opportunity projection: 230-240 (aging stars getting chances)

Efficiency projection: 25-27% (sustaining recovery)

9. Utah Mammoth: 60-63 PPG

PP1: Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev, JJ Peterka

Well, well. This was a surprise. The Mammoth/Coyotes combination has delivered a consistent, three-year improvement over time. The addition of JJ Peterka all but guarantees continued ascension. Be the one who gives his group more attention. 

Opportunity projection: 240-250 (maintaining volume)

Efficiency projection: 24-26% (continued growth)

10. Edmonton Oilers: 58-62 PPG

PP1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Andrew Mangiapane (Zach Hyman), Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard

The Oilers continue to show defensive dominance (7→5→4 SHGA). But they have dropped in opportunities year over year (275→243→215), and their efficiency dropped in 2024-25, too. Zach Hyman's absence until November will hurt. A lot. Bread Man-Lite isn't Hyman. A likely 5-8 PPG drop puts the Oilers in Tier 3. Wow. 

Opportunity projection: 220-230 (continued volume decline)

Efficiency projection: 25-27% (stabilizing after decline)

Tier 3: Moderate PPG Production (50-60 Projected Goals)

11. Toronto Maple Leafs: 50-55 PPG

PP1: Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, John Tavares

Gulp. With Mitch Marner, the Leafs were a top-three team, although their underlying metrics reveal a slow three-year decline. Without him, they lose 10-15 PPG and drop to Tier 3. Craig Berube's strong system may keep goals out of the net. But Marner's absence means the lack of a true QB is exposed even more.

Opportunity projection: 210-220 (reduced with less aggressive play)

Efficiency projection: 22-24% (major playmaker loss impact, a.k.a Missing Marner)

12. Chicago Blackhawks: 52-56 PPG

PP1: Teuvo Teravainen, Frank Nazar, Tyler Bertuzzi, Connor Bedard, Sam Rinzel/Artyom Levshunov

Yes, this is an optimistic projection, and it's not without risk. But the Hawks are a young, emerging team that has shown improvements that could be sustainable. The D is inexperienced, but Artyom Levshunov is the real deal, even if it takes time to get used to the smaller ice. Momentum is the product of mass times velocity. The Hawks are improving in both. 

Opportunity projection: 200-210 (young team discipline improving)

Efficiency projection: 25-27% (sustaining improvement)

13. Vancouver Canucks: 48-52 PPG

PP1: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson, Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes, Jake DeBrusk

The Orcas' PP is a talented group with a magician on the point. But Rick Tocchet's departure to Philly means a 5-8 PPG drop. Adam Foote is a known commodity in Vancouver, and he ran special teams last year. But he's a defender through and through. And it can take a good 15-20 games for a team to adjust to a new system. 

Opportunity projection: 215-225 (slight decline without Tocchet's aggressive systems)

Efficiency projection: 21-23% (coaching transition impact)

Conspicuous by their Absence (<50 Projected Goals)

Florida Panthers (14-16 Range)

PP1: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, Brad Marchand, Seth Jones

The announcement of Matthew Tkachuk's surgery dropped the Panthers from about 10th all the way down to 15th. He's a major driver on the power play, and without him, the top unit will need a new net-front presence with aggression who can finish. The Honey Badger is good, but Marchand is no Tkachuk, at least at this point in his career. A December return means 30 games lost (at best). And Seth Jones is solid, but no magician. Fifty PPG may be a stretch. 

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Goalie runs are epic in most fantasy hockey drafts. But are they really necessary? And do you need a top tender to win your league? Short answer? No, on both counts. Sure, I've gotten caught up on a run and drafted an elite goalie too soon. I once took Andrei Vasilevsky — before his string of injuries — in the first round. That was a hard lesson. He's great. But he has also cooled off in the second half for weeks at a time. And not just once. That destroyed me in a weekly format. I didn't have the offense to compete; elite goal-scorers are a much rarer breed. I then had to rely on luck. Luck is not a strategy. 

I've also been swept up in a run — who hasn't? Some leagues hoard goalies. I might jump in because a mid twinetender is better than the short half of a platoon. But then again, starters rarely play 60-plus games anymore. Low 50s is more likely. And even then, that's tiring for many. Plus, some "back-ups" will get 30-35 games. That's where streaming can pay off. After all, goalie categories are largely cumulative, unless you're in a weekly.

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Some 12-team Yahoo leagues really only tap the top 36 goalies, give or take. And with the parity in that range, I'd prefer two low-20 starters than the top and bottom goalies. The bottom line? Don't overreach for goalies. There are lots of solid options. So, pick a strategy and stick to it. And remember — an elite starter taken early won't carry your team. 

Outside of an injury, leagues are won and lost in the early to middle rounds. Drafting an elite goalie means you are committed to dominating goalie categories. So, you'll need a strong complement in the second seat. That means you'll take him earlier than you'd like. And that means a compromise somewhere else. Like goals. Or defense. Pick your priority and then let 'er rip.

Let's take a look. And debate! P.S. Each group is in alphabetical order, not ranked best to worst.

The Elite Five - "The 35-Win Club - More the Same than Different"

• Mackenzie Blackwood, Avalanche

• Connor Hellebuyck, Jets

• Jake Oettinger, Stars

• Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

• Igor Shesterkin, Rangers

Blackwood? Elite skills with a strong team in front of him could earn a Vezina nomination. Hellebuyck is a star. So is Vasy. Their workloads worry me, but not enough to stay away. Oettinger has Casey DeSmith behind him, and he's elite in 25-game territory. Shesterkin's skills are elite on a declining team. So more SOG, which could mean a higher save percentage. These guys will deliver similar stats and finish with anywhere between four and six shutouts. 

Magic Eight Ball - "A Solid 30 Wins, So Let the Ball Choose" 

• Thatcher Demko, Canucks

• Filip Gustavsson, Wild

• Adin Hill, Golden Knights

• Jacob Markstrom, Devils

• Juuse Saros, Predators

• Ilya Sorokin, Islanders

• Linus Ullmark, Senators

• Dustin Wolf, Flames

Demko was second to Hellebuyck in the 2024 Vezina race and his health is finally 100%. I'm a believer. Gustavsson should win 30 games, and his save percentage will be above average … although his GAA may be the highest of this group. Hill is athletic and competitive, and Vegas is a great place to play. His consistency can waver, though. Markstrom is a borderline top-10 netminder looking for a new contract. He'll deliver. Saros has nowhere to go but up, and he was on the Vezina shortlist as recently as 2022. Sorokin has long been seen as a top-four netminder; his team will tell the tale. And apparently they're "not" rebuilding. Ullmark went 40-6-1 in just 49 starts to win the Vezina in 2023. The Sens aren't the 2022-23 Bruins, but the Swede is a top-10 twinetender when healthy. Wolf was the Calder runner-up in 2024-25. His ascension will continue, but my gut does twinge a bit. Sophomore slumps do happen, the same way diarrhea comes when leftovers sit on the counter too long.  

High-Mileage Worry - "Approach With Caution"

• Sergei Bobrovsky, Panthers

A few short seasons ago, Bob the Goalie was considered almost washed up. Two Stanley Cups later, and he's a bona fide Hall-of-Famer. Beware his odometer, though. The last two seasons have been very long. And his workload will be managed closely so the Panthers can go for a three-peat. 

The System Makes the Man - "Boy Next Door a.k.a Plain and Ordinary"

• Darcy Kuemper, Kings

• Pyotr Kochetkov, Hurricanes

The Kings play a 200-foot game that keeps pressure off their netminder. The Canes' system smothers elite opponents and gets the puck out fast. Both Kuemper and Kochetkov will flirt with top-12 status in these situations.

Tandem Excellence - "Can't Have One Without the Other…"

• Anthony Stolarz, Maple Leafs

• Joseph Woll, Maple Leafs

Stolarz has been elite for several seasons, and his 31.2 GSAx was second-best in the NHL last year. Woll is calm, cool and supremely collected. And Toronto is elite. Stolarz could come close to 30 wins with fewer than 45 starts. Yup. Borderline elite in this situation. Plus, Woll himself could flirt with top-10 status. 

Battlers - "Back-Alley Dangerous — Never Underestimate Them"

• Jordan Binnington, Blues

• Joey Daccord, Kraken

• Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Sabres

Binner helped carry Canada to a 4 Nations win last season. He also barely scratched out a .900 save percentage with the Blues. St. Louis is a dark horse this season if consistency comes its way. Daccord is on the rise. He and Jeremy Swayman brought home gold for Team USA at the Worlds a few months ago, and he is one of four goaltenders invited to the U.S. Olympic Camp. Thirty wins are within reach. UPL took a step back in 2024-25 under a very heavy workload, but the skill is still real. And Devon Levi isn't ready to take the top reins. 

Rising - "Sending Out Flares"

• Yaroslav Askarov, Sharks

• Lukas Dostal, Ducks

• Joel Hofer, Blues

• Spencer Knight, Blackhawks

• Jesper Wallstedt, Wild

Askarov is elite; the Sharks are not. Still, he'll make a lot of saves, win his fair share and look great at times. Dostal is the cream of this crop — a guy ready to ascend to top-12 status, but can the Ducks do the same? That's really the only thing holding his potential stats back. Hofer is trapped behind Jordan Binnington, but his skill is real — he has the NHL's ninth-best goals-against-per-60 (0.20) over the last two seasons. That's Russian star territory. As in, Shesterkin and Sorokin. Knight has the pedigree to be a star, but his team has a lot of holes. Stardom may take three or four seasons, but we'll see flashes this season. Wallstedt struggled in the AHL last season. This year, he'll be the backup in the NHL and is ready to prove he's the future. 

Backups/Short-side Platoons That Could Surprise

• Casey DeSmith, Stars

• Kevin Lankinen, Canucks

• Leevi Merilainen, Senators

• Calvin Pickard, Oilers

DeSmith has the best guarantee (and skill) of this lot. He can be elite in 25 starts. The other guys are handcuffed to their team's starter on draft day, except Pickard, of course. The Oilers' crease is foggy at best, and Stuart Skinner will forever face the ire of fans. But Pickard could be AHL-bound if a trade comes. 

The System Breaks the Man

• Sam Montembeault, Canadiens

• Jeremy Swayman, Bruins

Montembeault finished with the NHL's fifth-best GSAx (24.6) last year, but he also had 22 starts with a save percentage of .880 or below. That's a function of the team. Yes, the Habs will improve again, but that variability is tough for your fantasy goalie. Swayman is coming off a career-worst season. Expectations are low in Boston after missing the postseason. A new coach means a new system. And that means pressure on the netminder, especially early. 

Real Housewives of the West - "Yes, Aviva threw her prosthetic leg to make a point."

• Stuart Skinner, Oilers

• John Gibson, Red Wings

Drama. Tantrums. Chaos. The Skinner on-again, off-again drama has been enough to delay Connor McDavid's contract extension. Gulp. Gibson hasn't been good enough to be No. 1 for a flock of quacks. Plus, the Yzer-plan is getting a touch tired. Approach with caution. 

"Do not touch with a 10-foot pole."

• Frederik Andersen, Hurricanes

Hang nail. Athlete's foot. I exaggerate, but it feels like the Great Dane is at risk of something. Last season, he missed months with knee surgery. And he takes his time with his recovery — he will NEVER return early to help his team. Missed time is missed time. The risk is far too high. 

Meh Tandems

• Connor Ingram/Karel Vejmelka, Mammoth

• Charlie Lindgren/Logan Thompson, Capitals

The Mammoth will be OK. So will their tandem. But that's not good enough in fantasy. I see your fury with Logan Thompson's inclusion in this group. I like him, but Lindgren can steal games. And the Caps will play the hottest hand (and sacrifice Thompson's ego) to try to lure Alex Ovechkin into a contract extension. 

Tandems to Avoid

• Elvis Merzlikins/Jet Greaves, BLue Jackets

• Samuel Ersson/Dan Vladar, Flyers

• Joel Blomqvist/Tristan Jarry, Penguins

I like Greaves a lot. He's athletic and talented. But that's not enough on a team destined for a dumpster fire. Sorry, Ohio. Ditto Pennsylvania. Dumpster fire. Tire fire. UGH.

Wild Cards

• Alexandar Georgiev

• Carter Hart

• Ilya Samsonov

This group straddles anxiety and controversy, but they need to be addressed. Georgiev and Samsonov are discount store options, but both deserve to be in the NHL. They could be league average in the right situation, but remain unsigned. Hart may make you nauseous, and the NHL needs to determine if he'll even play this season. If he does, his success will come down to two things: Rust (he hasn't played since Jan. 20, 2024) and where he lands. Canadian fans will make his life miserable. Original six fans might, too. The rest? The more anonymous, the better. 

On Sunday, Alexander Ovechkin became the greatest goal scorer of all time when he recorded his 895th snipe. Where were you, and who were you with when you heard the news? These moments really are once-in-a-lifetime. Like Shohei Ohtani’s 50-50 feat on September 19, 2024, Ovechkin’s record is history, and we got to see it.

Fewer than 20,000 people were actually in the arena. But someday, 200,000 or maybe two million will tell the story like they were there. Forgive them now. One of them might be us.

The thing that makes Ovechkin’s feat so special is that he did it at the same seasonal rate as Wayne Gretzky did. This is Ovie’s 20th season in the NHL — that’s the same number that the Great One took to score 894. Gretz set the record in 1,487 games. Amazingly, Ovie broke it in the exact same number of 1,487 games.

However, they did it in two different ways. Gretzky front-loaded his snipes — he had a four-year run with 92, 71, 87 and 73 goals early in his career. He overwhelmed fantasy hockey in its earliest days, but when he hit about 32 years of age, his pace dropped dramatically, and Gretzky ended his career averaging 20 goals across his last seven seasons. He also put up just nine snipes in his final season (1998-99).

Fantasy-wise, Gretzky’s peak may never be repeated, not even by Connor McDavid. However, Gretzky’s later years were basic at best.

Ovechkin has never scored more than 65 goals in a single season. He’s had a pair of three-season runs with 50 or more, and remarkably, there’s been no real drop-off in average goals scored. Ovechkin’s most recent 50-goal season came at age 36. It took 42 goals this season to break the record. He did that at 39 years of age.

That’s bussin’. Or fire, maybe even wicked, depending on your age. His fantasy impact continues to be elite. After all, pure snipers are the rarest of beasts. Ones that pound out hits, too? Those are counted on one hand. Wait, make that one finger.

Gretzky was slim at six feet tall and 185 pounds. His shoulder pads were about as thick as paper towels, and he had a bodyguard named Marty McSorley. His office was behind the net. Ovechkin? He’s built like a tank at six-foot-three and 238 pounds. He remains his own bodyguard — he’s approaching 3,000 hits in his career. And we all know “Ovie’s Office.”

So does every opposing goalie and fan. Still, nobody can stop him. That puck is off his tape and past netminders before you can blink. I finally saw him in person in Toronto on December 28, 2024 — his first game back from a busted fibula. Honestly, pay the price to see him if you can find it. I sat 16 rows up from his office, right on the goal line.

I heard his blades crush the ice. I never caught the puck coming off his stick, even when iso-ing on him. Seriously. I am still blown away by that.

Ovechkin’s power-play excellence started in his rookie season, but it was his unbroken five-season run as the league’s power-play goal leader that stands out in fantasy lore.

He wired 101 PPG between 2012-13 and 2016-17, and he’s been the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer with the man advantage for a long time. Ovechkin’s 325 power-play goals eclipse Dave Andreychuk, who is second on that list with 274.

In his prime, if Ovechkin didn't finish as the season's No. 1 overall fantasy player, you would be sure to see his name as a top-10 finisher.

Ovechkin has never really slowed down, but an abysmal start last season had everyone whispering about his so-called “rapid decline.” Nobody expected he would have just six goals in his first 34 games, and he suffered through his first 14-game goal drought.

Ovechkin finished with 31 goals, including 23 in his last 36 games. That run was a 52-goal pace. This season, his 888th goal was his 35th of the season. That made Ovechkin the all-time record holder for 35-goal seasons (15), one more than former Caps forward, Mike Gartner.

Earlier in March, Ovechkin also beat Gretzky’s all-time record for the most goals in any month. Gretzky owns December with 157 goals. Ovie now has 161 in March.

Ovechkin has always been an NHL unicorn. He came into the league with that trademark tinted visor and gap-toothed grin, and his now-beloved goofy personality. He wasn’t immediately loved — he didn’t fit the quiet, self-deprecating, 110% Canadian guy that the hockey institution still strangely adores.

Ovechkin oozed personality. Remember when he basically begged to be picked last at the All-Star Game fantasy draft so he could win a car? Or when he manhandled the Cup around D.C. on a summer-long pub crawl?

Ovie has matured. Kids and time will do that to a person — he turns 40 in September. But he still shows pure, unapologetic joy when he scores. And when his teammates score, too.

He simplified his game this year. He’s conserving energy, and head coach Spencer Carbery has cut his ice time back to help keep him fresh. It’s worked, and it’ll keep working through the end of next season when his contract ends. That’s when he's expected to retire and head home to Russia.

Ovechkin plans to open a hockey museum in his hometown of Moscow, filled with his memorabilia and the pieces he’s gotten from teammates, fellow stars and hockey legends. This season, he’s been saving the stick, jersey, puck and pair of gloves from every goal he scores, and he’s getting his teammates to sign each jersey.

He also gives back. At the start of March, the Capitals announced he would donate his career goal-number amount to pediatric cancer research. With every goal, his donation goes up $1. And with his record-breaking 895th snipe, Ovechkin will have donated $9,790, which will be matched by Monumental Sports and Entertainment, the owners of the Caps. That’s a combined $19,580.

Fans can join in, too, if you’re so inclined.

Ovechkin’s goal feat may never be matched. Auston Matthews might get there one day, but he’s already shown a propensity for injuries that Ovie has mostly escaped.

There’s only one big record left for Ovie to chase — most goals in the regular season and playoffs combined. Ovechkin has 967 career goals (895+72). Gretzky’s combined record is 1,016 (894+122). I wouldn’t put it past Ovechkin — that’s just 50 goals, and the Caps have their eyes on the silver chalice.

Ovechkin is an NHL unicorn. He’s an even rarer fantasy animal.

Let’s enjoy him while we can. By next June, fantasy hockey will never be the same.