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On the surface, a fantasy hockey draft seems quite straightforward. Draft the best players, dominate, and win. Of course, it's not that simple. By following a handful of these simple draft strategies, you can give yourself the best chance of outlasting your competition when all is said and done.

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Why Fading Goaltenders Can Be a Winning Strategy

For the record, this is not my preferred strategy, but it seems to be a more reasonable option than a year ago, given how badly top picks such as Igor Shesterkin and Juuse Saros flopped. A couple of things need to happen for this to work successfully. For starters, you need to be in a league with a limited number of teams. 

If your league has 10-plus teams, any goaltender remotely worth considering is going to be drafted. Second, to even consider this, you must be prepared to devote a ton of time to managing your team because you're going to have to scour the waiver wire every single day to find backups and platoon-mates that are starting. It can work in the right scenario, especially given the fact that there are so few workhorse No. 1 options left in the league, but it requires a ton of work.

The Risks of Stacking Players in Fantasy Hockey

Stacking is a very popular way to go about things in football drafts. For example, if you draft Ja'Marr Chase with your top pick in fantasy football, adding Joe Burrow at quarterback is a smart move because any Chase success will be the result of Burrow throwing him the football, health permitting, and you'll essentially double-up your point total. 

It's not that simple in hockey. For starters, most coaches these days change lines like the average person changes their underwear. Giving Vincent Trocheck a boost because he's expected to center Artemi Panarin with the Rangers sounds great in theory, until Mike Sullivan changes his mind, and next thing you know, Trocheck is skating with Brett Berard and Taylor Raddysh, and you passed on an inferior player on draft day because you already had Panarin. It's just not a sound strategy.

Avoiding the Temptation to Reach for Prospects

This is my preferred strategy every single season, but it's more important this year than in recent memory. Last year's rookie class was loaded. We had Macklin Celebrini, Lane Hutson, Will Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Dustin Wolf, etc. You get the point. Who are we expecting to break out this time around? 

It's unclear if 2025 No. 1 overall pick Matthew Schaefer will even begin the year in the NHL. My guess is that he does, but I'm barely interested in drafting top forwards on the Islanders, let alone an 18-year-old defenseman. I really like Ivan Demidov in Montreal. Zeev Buium in Minnesota and Zayne Parekh in Calgary should get a chance to make an impact, but none of these guys are sure things, and I'm not passing on a proven veteran commodity on draft day to roll the dice on one of them.

Consider a Team's Worst-Case Scenario

If there's one lesson I learned from taking part in dozens of fantasy leagues last year, it was this. Hockey, at least from a fantasy standpoint, is very much an individual sport, believe it or not. We're betting on individual talents and hoping they lead us to success. If a team struggles, then all bets are off. 

I want to start by saying this applies to goaltenders a bit more than skaters. I touched on Shesterkin and Saros earlier. The Rangers and Predators crumbled to unprecedented levels a season ago, and both netminders saw their numbers crater as a result. Shesterkin still played well despite the ugly statistics, but Saros was all but unplayable late in the year. The same goes for Boston's Jeremy Swayman. Even if a worst-case scenario hits only 5-10% of the time, it's worth considering. 

If the Penguins are terrible as everyone expects, maybe Sidney Crosby agrees to be traded. That would be great for his fantasy value. On the flip side, maybe the team is out of it, and he wants to stay, and he gets shutdown late in the season with a nagging injury. All the scenarios are worth monitoring on draft day.

How to Evaluate Past Injuries in Fantasy Drafts

When it comes to evaluating past injuries, I always take the upside consideration into account. Take Jack Hughes in New Jersey, for example. Hughes has played exactly 62 games in each of the past two seasons. In other words, he's missed 40 of 164 regular-season games over the same period. If you spent a late-first or early-second round pick on him in your draft, you were probably in a boatload of trouble. That said, his ceiling, health permitting, is that of one of the top five scorers in the NHL. A player like that, at any sort of discount, can win you your league. 

On the flip side, take a guy like Mark Stone in Vegas. Stone played 66 games last season and had 67 points, but he's upwards of a decade older than Hughes and has a more checkered injury history. The upside simply isn't as high, and I'm not rushing to pick him on draft day. Again, evaluate on a case-by-case basis.

Balancing Upside Potential with Reliable Draft Picks

Swinging for upside is always a positive in fantasy drafts, and it's the approach I like to go with. That said, you're almost always in better shape selecting the known commodity instead of a potential breakout candidate. For every breakout candidate you "steal" in your draft, you're going to make countless poor picks employing that strategy. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule. For example, 40-year-old Alex Ovechkin is highly unlikely to approach the 44 goals he scored a season ago. Evgeni Malkin, 39, is a future first ballot Hall of Famer. He also had just 50 points in 68 games last season and plays for one of the worst teams in the league. Maybe you roll the dice on an upside play instead of one of them. In his rookie year, Connor Bedard was being drafted ridiculously high, going ahead of perennial All-Stars. He went on to have 22 goals and 61 points in 68 games in his freshman campaign. There's a reason the same, steady performers go off the board early in drafts every single year.

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Your first overall pick in your fantasy hockey draft helps set the tone for what you will do the rest of the way. If you select an elite defenseman or goaltender, you can afford to wait a bit before doubling up. If you take a scorer, you can afford to be a bit more open-minded about your next selection.

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With that in mind, let's explore who you should consider drafting with your first-round pick, depending on where you end up in the draft order.

Pick No. 1 – Recommendation: Connor McDavid

For the first time in seemingly forever, I considered placing someone other than McDavid in the top spot. Ultimately, I couldn't get there. These are McDavid's point totals over the past five seasons: 100, 132, 153, 123, 105. He had "only" 100 points a season ago despite missing 15 games due to injury. His 31 power-play points last season were his lowest mark since the 2017-18 campaign. In other words, McDavid essentially had one of his worst seasons in recent memory a year ago from an offensive standpoint, and he was still hysterically productive. No player can match his floor, and no player can match his ceiling.

Pick No. 2 – Recommendation: Nathan MacKinnon

This was an easy choice, as MacKinnon is the only player in the world close to hanging with McDavid in terms of individual talent and overall production. He led the league in assists last season with 84 and finished second in the NHL in scoring with 116 points in 79 games. MacKinnon's 320 shots on goal, while nowhere near the 405 he posted the year prior, still led the league. The lone minor concern is that former long-time running mate Mikko Rantanen is now in Dallas. Regardless, MacKinnon is an easy bet-on-talent selection at this spot.

Pick No. 3 – Recommendation: Nikita Kucherov

Kucherov is a bit older than McDavid and MacKinnon and probably a bit greater of an injury risk, but he's also led the league in scoring two years in a row and has shown no signs of slowing down. Over the past three seasons, Kucherov has posted no fewer than 83 assists and 113 points, including 46 with the man-advantage. He's also missed just five total games during that span. I would suggest taking things on a year-by-year basis with Kucherov at this point, but I see zero reason not to roll the dice for the 2025-26 campaign.

Pick No. 4 – Recommendation: Leon Draisaitl

Draisaitl might be the most consistent offensive player in the league. He scored 52 goals last season, the third time in the past four years he potted 50-plus. He's racked up at least 105 points in six of the past seven seasons. His power-play production has dropped three years in a row, but he still managed 33 points with the man-advantage last season, an elite number. Everything under the hood here looks fine, and of course, Draisaitl gets a bump for playing alongside McDavid, even if the two rarely begin most games on the same line.

Pick No. 5 – Recommendation: David Pastrnak

The Bruins were terrible last season, and they may be even worse this time around. It's certainly not the type of offensive environment I typically like to invest in from a fantasy standpoint, but Pastrnak has proven to be an elite individual talent. Last year was his worst season in the past three, and he still had 43 goals and 106 points. He hasn't missed a game since the 2021-22 campaign. Set to play the entirety of this upcoming season at age 29, I'm expecting another dominant performance from Pasta.

Pick No. 6 – Recommendation: Cale Makar

I can't put into words how much of an advantage it is to have a defenseman in your fantasy lineup that produces like a quality first-line forward. Makar set career-best marks last season with 30 goals and 92 points in 80 games. He added 246 shots on goal, 35 power-play points, and a plus-28 rating for good measure. Makar's middling hit/block totals are irrelevant given his scoring numbers.

Pick No. 7 – Recommendation: Connor Hellebuyck

I admittedly struggled with where to rank Hellebuyck. He's most certainly a candidate to be over drafted, but he's earned it. That's what happens when you lead the league in GAA (2.00) and save percentage (.925), win 47 games and earn the Hart Trophy as NHL MVP. This is about as high as I'd be willing to go, however, simply because the odds of a true repeat performance are so low. Regardless, Hellebuyck is the no-doubt top goaltender on the board in drafts this year.

Pick No. 8 – Recommendation: Auston Matthews

Speaking of struggling with where to rank a player, I had an even more difficult time with Matthews than Hellebuyck. Matthews' goal total over the course of the previous four seasons is as follows: 60, 40, 69, 33. As is almost always the case, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Expecting Matthews to flirt with 60 tallies once again feels like a fruitless endeavor. So much needs to break correctly for that to happen. That said, a mean projection for him, health permitting, is probably somewhere around 45 goals per season. Given his gaudy shot totals and power-play production, the middle of Round 1 feels right from a fantasy standpoint.

Pick No. 9 – Recommendation: Kirill Kaprizov

Kaprizov played in exactly half of Minnesota's 82 games a year ago. His numbers, prorated over the course of a full season, would have been 50 goals and 112 points. Once you get past the McDavid's and MacKinnon's of the world, Kaprizov is right there in terms of individual talent. I don't like the supporting cast in Minnesota, but I never have, and it has never held Kaprizov back before. He won't be 29 years of age until late April, so health is the only thing holding him back.

Pick No. 10 – Recommendation: Mikko Rantanen

I touched on Rantanen a bit earlier. Yes, I liked him better when he was in Colorado playing with MacKinnon and Makar, but the truth of the matter is this remains an elite player, and it's not as if he's going to be out there with a collection of stiffs in Dallas. My lone concern is that Rantanen's shot total decreased last season to 212, down from 271 the year prior, but that number could easily rebound in his new home. The Finn once again seems like a lock for 40 goals and 90-plus points.

Pick No. 11 – Recommendation: William Nylander

Nylander scored a career-high 45 goals last season, but his assist numbers were down, which is why he finished with just 84 points in 82 games. With Mitch Marner off to Vegas in a sign-and-trade, the Leafs are going to need Nylander to showcase his playmaking skills more than ever. The goal total may dip a bit, but I expect the helpers to go through the roof. Toss in the fact that Nylander hasn't missed a game in three seasons, and you have a reliable first-round fantasy asset on your hands.

Pick No. 12 – Recommendation: Kyle Connor, Quinn Hughes or Brady Tkachuk

I'm listing three players here because I didn't see a guy that immediately jumped out at me for the final spot, and because I think all are valid options depending on your settings. If your format places an additional emphasis on goals scored, an elite sniper like Connor is the way to go. Tkachuk is a no-brainer in leagues that value hits and shots. And while it's not my preferred style of drafting, Hughes probably has the highest ceiling given his position.

The 2024-25 fantasy hockey season has just about reached its end. As always, there were several things that went according to plan and many that did not. Here we will take a look at the latter in hopes of improving the process for the 2025-26 campaign.

The goaltending market is more volatile than ever

This is by far the most important one. I've always been an advocate for drafting goalies early simply because there aren't enough top-tier ones to go around. Sure, Connor Hellebuyck has been great, and Jake Oettinger and Andrei Vasilevskiy have helped anchor fantasy teams, but players like Igor Shesterkin, Jeremy Swayman and especially Juuse Saros, have been woeful given where they went on draft day.

Shesterkin has actually played pretty well relative to how bad his teammates have been, but Swayman and Saros have really struggled. What they all have in common is that the Rangers, Bruins and Predators have all woefully underachieved as a team. Among the top 10 in the league in GAA are a player who was so bad he was included in a salary dump trade in the offseason (Darcy Kuemper), a guy on his fifth NHL team who had never played more than 28 games in a single year (Anthony Stolarz) and a goaltender who spent the first quarter of the year playing for the worst team in the league (Mackenzie Blackwood).

My initial reaction is to continue to draft the same way simply because I don't see how fantasy managers can accurately predict which of these mid-to-late-round dart-throw goaltenders will fare, but it's important we analyze the potential worst-case scenario for each team prior to the season. 

Rookies still aren't worth reaching for

This has been my opinion for years, and it held true once again this season. Every NHL team has roughly 3-5 games remaining on their schedule. The current rookie point leaders are Lane Hutson (64), Matvei Michkov (58), Macklin Celebrini (57), Cutter Gauthier (40) and Will Smith (40). Michkov has exploded with 11 points in his last seven games to fly up the list. All remain elite, top-tier assets in keeper/dynasty leagues, but in redraft formats, fantasy managers can do better.

Hutson is a bit of a different case because he's a defenseman, but the other four haven't been fantasy difference makers. Michkov and Celebrini would be late-round options if they were to finish in the range of 60 points. Gauthier and Smith are non-playable in redraft formats. Everyone loves rookies because of the potential unknown and massive upside, but there are very few guys like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews who step in right away and dominate in the best league in the world. 

The top drafted defenders are indeed, that

This is essentially what I expected to happen with the goalie market that didn't. Here are the current top 11 scoring defensemen in the NHL with their point totals:

• Cale Makar (91)

• Zach Werenski (75)

• Quinn Hughes (74)

• Lane Hutson (64)

• Evan Bouchard (63)

• Rasmus Dahlin (62)

• Victor Hedman (61)

• Josh Morrissey (57)

• Adam Fox (56)

• Jake Sanderson (54)

• Shea Theodore (54)

The only two guys on that list who weren't projected to be there before the season were Hutson, and perhaps Werenski, although he led all NHL rearguards in goals in 2019-20 and has always been one of the best offensive defenders in the league when healthy. Defensemen scoring is driven by power-play production, and it's exceedingly rare for a player to come out of nowhere and become an effective PP quarterback at the NHL level. The projected top rearguards before the season feel like safer investments than ever.

Fantasy managers can find some secondary scoring to complement hits

Hits aren't valued in every league, but in those in which they are, they can make a major difference. When considering hits, fantasy managers used to think of players like Matt Martin, Ryan Reaves and Radko Gudas, guys who would throw the body around a lot and bring minimal offense to the table. That's not the case anymore. Of the current top 15 hits leaders in the NHL, six of them — Kiefer Sherwood, Will Cuylle, Mathieu Olivier, Paul Cotter, Brady Tkachuk, Eeli Tolvanen — have scored at least 15 goals this season, while 10 of the 15 have posted at least 22 points. Outside of Tkachuk, none of these players are going to be true difference-makers from an offensive standpoint, but there are guys who can help fantasy managers in both hits and be a nice source of secondary scoring, and that's a potential major advantage depending on your format. 

Don't bet on players with limited power-play production

This is more of a lesson for next year. As I mentioned earlier, fantasy usefulness is largely determined by effectiveness with the man advantage. Take Mika Zibanejad of the Rangers.

The prior two years, he had 70 power-play points combined, while he's had just 19 this year. That's why he has just 52 points after finishing with no fewer than 72 points in any of the prior five full seasons. He's not the best example because he's been on New York's No. 1 power-play unit all season, but it just illustrates the point of how a player's numbers can tank if he isn't scoring a man up.

The poster boy for this this season is Aliaksei Protas of the Capitals. Protas is currently 44th in the NHL in scoring with 30 goals and 66 points in 76 games. He's been riding a heater all season and is currently a plus-40, second-best in the NHL. The numbers on the surface are exceptional, but he averages just eight seconds worth of power-play time per game and has just a single assist with the man advantage all season and even has five shorthanded points. Unless Protas' power-play time increases next season, expect a significant drop in production.