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Whenever a player is a pleasant surprise or a big disappointment in fantasy hockey, the natural question is whether this is the new normal or just an outlier. Successfully predicting when someone is going to regress towards the mean, either positively or negatively, is important when evaluating a player's fantasy worth.

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To help with that, let's highlight some major players who are likely to either bounce back or come back down to Earth this year.

2025-26 Fantasy Hockey Positive Regression Candidates

Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks

Pettersson is a fascinating forward. He's incredibly skilled, but sometimes he falls apart. We saw a glimpse of that in 2021-22 when he was limited to six goals and 17 points through his first 37 games before rebounding to finish the campaign with 32 goals and 68 points, but 2024-25 was a far more extreme example with him recording just 15 goals and 45 points in 64 appearances.

Vancouver struggled as a group last year, and the Canucks weren't immune to drama with J.T. Miller ultimately being traded. On top of that, Pettersson dealt with some injury issues. A fresh start and a new head coach in Adam Foote might be just what Pettersson needs. The 26-year-old is a risk, but a return to 30-plus goals and 80-plus points is a strong possibility.

Igor Shesterkin, G, New York Rangers

Speaking of drama, the Rangers were full of it last year, which clearly affected the on-ice product, and when a team is collectively struggling, the goaltender is often the biggest victim. Shesterkin had a 27-29-5 record, 2.86 GAA and .905 save percentage in 61 starts last year. It ended his run of three straight campaigns with at least 30 wins, and 2024-25 also marked career worsts for him in terms of GAA and save percentage.

That's not his fault. He still had a plus-21.6 goals saved above expected, which suggests he was doing everything he could to drag the Rangers forward, but he couldn't overcome just how bad the group was in front of him. New York's struggles resulted in lots of roster turnover, much of it occurring while the 2024-25 campaign was still ongoing, but with the dust settled, the Rangers are still a team with promise. If new head coach Mike Sullivan can put 2024-25 in the rearview mirror, then the Rangers should be competitive, and Shesterkin should resume putting up elite numbers.

John Klingberg, D, San Jose Sharks

A long-term hip injury has limited Klingberg to just 25 regular-season games across the past two campaigns, but he did seem to put that behind him by participating in 19 playoff outings with Edmonton last year. Still, he's 33 years old and hasn't reached the 40-point mark since 2021-22, so what hope is there now? To be clear, Klingberg is a huge risk and shouldn't be taken any earlier than the last round of a standard draft.

However, he might have picked the perfect destination in San Jose. The Sharks have an encouraging young forward corps, but what they lack is a clear power-play quarterback for the top unit, and once upon a time, Klingberg was capable of filling that role. It remains to be seen if he still can serve in that capacity, but with the Sharks' level of skill, Klingberg could end up breathing new life into his career if all goes well in San Jose.

2025-26 Fantasy Hockey Negative Regression Candidates

Tom Wilson, RW, Washington Capitals

Wilson offers a blend of skill and grit that is always welcome by fantasy managers, but he typically skews more towards grit than skill. In 2024-25, Wilson struck a balance. He still recorded 100 PIM and 233 hits while also setting career highs with 33 goals and 65 points. For a forward who has averaged 18 goals and 39 points per 82 games in his career, that's a huge jump. However, there are warning signs that he's due to decline.

His shooting percentage was 19.5, well above his career average of 12.8. Part of that was because he scored a career-high 11 power-play goals (more than double his previous best), but even his 5v5 shooting percentage was 14.7, which was leagues ahead of his 5.2 5v5 shooting percentage from 2023-24. It's hard to expect him to repeat that level of success, either with the man advantage or at even strength. He's still going to provide fantasy managers with around 100 PIM and over 200 hits, but don't count on him coming close to last year's offensive totals.

Jake Walman, D, Edmonton Oilers

After ranging from 10 to 21 regular-season points across 2021-22 through 2023-24, Walman leaped forward in his age-28 campaign with seven goals and 40 points in 65 regular-season appearances between Edmonton and San Jose before adding another 10 points in 22 playoff outings with the Oilers. Given that he still found success even after being acquired by Edmonton, there is room for optimism here, but there is also an important caveat: The Oilers were missing Mattias Ekholm for much of that playoff run, and even when he was back, he was playing with a torn adductor muscle.

It's also worth noting that while it didn't dramatically impact Walman during his relatively small sample size with Edmonton, he saw his power-play ice time drop due to the trade, which limits his offensive potential. When the Oilers' blue line is healthy this season, Walman will likely serve outside of the top four. Combine that with the fact that Walman still hasn't managed to hit the 70-game mark in a regular season, and there's a real danger he'll finish with 30 or fewer points this year.

Darcy Kuemper, G, Los Angeles Kings

Kuemper had a 31-11-7 record, 2.02 GAA and .921 save percentage across 50 regular-season appearances with the Kings last year, which led to him finishing third in Vezina Trophy voting. It wasn't just a matter of him getting solid support on a competitive team — his 22.5 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck, ranked sixth in the league, which suggests he was more than pulling his weight. You can't dismiss the possibility of him repeating that success with the Kings in 2025-26, but it'd also be wrong to depend on it.

Kuemper is a very unpredictable goaltender. In terms of goals saved above expected, he's finished the regular season with minus-0.2, 13.19, 8.8, minus-4.8 from 2020-21 through 2023-24, so he's ranged from good to mediocre in recent years. He's also getting up there in years at 35, which adds another layer of risk in addition to his recent history of inconsistency. It'd be safer to expect him to regress towards being an average starter this year than risk taking him ahead of some more reliable options.

We're in an age of offensive defensemen. Since the start of the NHL, there have been just 30 examples of a blueliner finishing a season with at least 90 points. Five of those times have come in the past three seasons alone. However, when we move past the best of the best, things can start to blur together a bit. 

This tier list is designed to help you sort through the defensive corps by putting them into different groupings for fantasy hockey. Below, I'll also help to explain the differences between the tiers while also highlighting some defensemen of particular note, especially those who some might argue deserve to be placed higher than I've done.

Tier 1 – Makar vs. Hughes

• Cale Makar, Avalanche

• Quinn Hughes, Canucks

While there are other defensemen who have reached the heights of Makar and Hughes in recent years, there aren't any other blueliners who are as close to a sure thing for 70-plus points as these two. Hughes has recorded at least 76 points in each of the past three campaigns, while Makar has exceeded the 85-point mark in three of the last four seasons, with the lone exception being in 2022-23 when an injury limited him to 66 points in 60 regular-season outings. 

Makar and Hughes also rank first (334 points) and second (312), respectively, in terms of total points among defensemen over the past four seasons. I do recommend taking Makar before Hughes, primarily because Makar helps more in terms of goals — he scored a career-high 30 in 2024-25 while Hughes has never hit 20 — but you can't go wrong with either of them.

Tier 2 – The Next Best

• Zach Werenski, Blue Jackets

• Adam Fox, Rangers

• Evan Bouchard, Oilers

• Victor Hedman, Lightning

• Rasmus Dahlin, Sabres

• Josh Morrissey, Jets

After Makar and Hughes are gone, your best bet is to turn your attention to the handful of defensemen who are reasonable bets to finish with 60-70 points. Some of them might exceed that mark; Werenski did so last year, and Bouchard in 2023-24, but you probably shouldn't count on that happening. While all these blueliners fall more into the offensive defensemen camp, some of them do play with a bit of physicality. Dahlin has recorded over 100 hits and 50 PIM in each of the past four seasons, so you can count versatility among his strengths. Hedman spent just 30 minutes in the sin bin last year, but he had 76 PIM in 2023-24, so he might make a meaningful contribution in that category as well.

Tier 3 – Elite Alternatives

• Lane Hutson, Canadiens

• Jake Sanderson, Senators

• Luke Hughes, Devils

• Mikhail Sergachev, Mammoth

• Thomas Harley, Stars

• Shea Theodore, Golden Knights

None of these blueliners are expected to compete for top-scoring defenseman or rank among the top-five fantasy defensemen, but they're not far from that level. An argument could be made that Hutson deserves to be in Tier 2 after scoring six goals and 66 points across 82 regular-season appearances as a rookie last year. However, I want to see him prove that he can replicate that level of production before putting him in the same group as established veterans like Hedman, Fox and Bouchard. 

Still, it would be fair to regard Hutson as the highest reward choice of this class with a touch of risk that partially offsets it. If Hutson is the one with the strongest argument for a promotion to a higher tier, Hughes is the one who is closest to being demoted. His seven goals and 44 points in 71 regular-season appearances in 2024-25 was great, but not quite elite production, and he's not guaranteed to always be on the top power-play unit due to the presence of Dougie Hamilton. Still, Hughes has untapped upside, and after two full NHL campaigns under his belt, it wouldn't be surprising to see him enjoy some growth this season.

Tier 4A – Scoring and Grit

• MacKenzie Weegar, Flames

• Moritz Seider, Red Wings

• Brandon Montour, Kraken

• Jakob Chychrun, Capitals

Most of the time, you're either going to find a defenseman who will help you offensively or benefit you in non-scoring categories like PIM, hits or blocks. Of course, the ideal is to find someone with versatility, and the blueliners here serve that function. They aren't expected to be among the top-10 defensemen when it comes to scoring, but 40-plus points is a reasonable expectation for each of them. On top of that, Weegar and Seider are a fantastic source of hits and blocks, while Montour and Chychrun should be a big help when it comes to PIM.

Tier 4B – The Old Guard

• Roman Josi, Predators

• Erik Karlsson, Penguins

• John Carlson, Capitals

• Drew Doughty, Kings

Josi is the biggest question mark of this group. He was diagnosed with postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, which caused him to continue to have headaches well into his recovery from a concussion that cost him the final 25 games of the 2024-25 campaign. There are some lingering questions for his availability for the start of this seasons. Even if he's healthy, it's not clear if he'll decline somewhat in his age-35 season, which is ultimately the X-factor all these defensemen share. This group has aged well so far, but some level of offensive decline might still occur this year.

Tier 5A – But if they're healthy…

• Dougie Hamilton, Devils

• Miro Heiskanen, Stars

• Jake Walman, Sharks

• Vince Dunn, Kraken

• Thomas Chabot, Senators

• Charlie McAvoy, Bruins

There is elite potential in this group, but being held back by injury is unfortunately a recurring theme. For example, if everything goes right, then a campaign in the range of 60-70 points is obtainable for Hamilton, which would make his value comparable to a Tier 2 blueliner. That said, can I really justify putting him in that grouping after four of the last six seasons included major absences from him? Heiskanen might also put up offensive numbers similar to a Tier 2 defenseman if he stays healthy, and a healthy McAvoy with his blend of high-end scoring and grit certainly has appeal too. Walman and Chabot don't have quite the same upside, but at least those two enjoyed solid showings in 2024-25.

Tier 5B – Good, probably not great

• Noah Dobson, Canadiens

• Jackson LaCombe, Ducks

• Morgan Rielly, Maple Leafs

• Shayne Gostisbehere, Hurricanes

• Devon Toews, Avalanche

• Cam Fowler, Blues

• Sean Durzi, Mammoth

At this point, we're past the safer elite defensemen or risky blueliners who could, if the stars align, be at that level. These defensemen probably won't shock you, but they should provide you with at least 40 points. Durzi is arguably a bit less likely to reach the 40-point mark than the other members of this tier, but no one would be stunned if he manages to eke past that mark, and whatever mild loss in offense you might suffer by taking him over another defenseman in this grouping should be offset by his contributions in PIM and blocks. 

Meanwhile, Dobson is the most interesting defenseman in this group. He appeared to break out in the 2023-24 regular season with 70 points, but dropped to 39 points last year. Could he rebound offensively? Maybe, but he got dealt from the Islanders to Montreal, and the Canadiens already have Hutson, so Dobson won't always appear on the top power-play unit unless the Canadiens opt to consistently use two defensemen. Dobson is still the best option in this tier, but partially due to that situation, I'd caution against expecting a repeat of 2023-24.

Tier 6 – Decent Alternatives

• Owen Power, Sabres

• Brock Faber, Wild

• Bowen Byram, Sabres

• Matt Grzelcyk, Free Agent

• Noah Hanifin, Golden Knights

• Neal Pionk, Jets

• Darren Raddysh, Lightning

• Colton Parayko, Blues

• Seth Jones, Panthers

• Aaron Ekblad, Panthers

• Filip Hronek, Canucks

• Simon Edvinsson, Red Wings

• Tony DeAngelo, Islanders

While some of these defensemen might end up surpassing the 40-point mark, penciling the members of this group for 30-40 points is the safer play. DeAngelo is the most interesting option here but also the riskiest. He comes with a lot of baggage, both off the ice and with regards to his defensive play, which is why he's already been bought out twice in his career. However, there's no question that he's capable of making things happen with the puck. DeAngelo is likely to get a spot in the top four as well as the first power-play unit, especially after the Islanders parted ways with Dobson. DeAngelo will get every opportunity to succeed. Outside of DeAngelo, Power, Faber and Byram are particularly nice grabs because those young defensemen still have untapped upside.

Tier 7 – Completing your roster

• Brady Skjei, Predators

• Mattias Ekholm, Oilers

• Ivan Provorov, Blue Jackets

• Darnell Nurse, Oilers

• Brandt Clarke, Kings

• Jared Spurgeon, Wild

• Justin Faulk, Blues

• Gustav Forsling, Panthers

• Rasmus Andersson, Flames

• Mike Matheson, Canadiens

• Mason Lohrei, Bruins

• Ryan McDonagh, Lightning

• Kris Letang, Penguins

• Hampus Lindholm, Bruins

• Travis Sanheim, Flyers

• Nikita Zadorov, Bruins

None of these are exciting options, but they are serviceable ones. Some might wonder why Matheson is this low after recording 62 points in 2023-24, but that was an anomaly of a season for him, brought on in part by his 28 power-play points. The rise of Hutson changed his role in 2024-25, leading to Matheson regressing to 31 regular-season points, and as addressed earlier, Montreal also has Dobson this year, so another 30-ish points is what you should expect out of Matheson. Rather than grab him and hope for a rebound, Nurse is a better, albeit somewhat boring, option in some formats. The 30-year-old Nurse can provide around 30 points, 70 PIM, 150 blocks and 150 hits, so if you're in a league that uses all or most of those categories, then his versatility will serve you well.

Bonus Tier – The Rookies

• Zayne Parekh, Flames

• Alexander Nikishin, Hurricanes

• Zeev Buium, Wild

• Matthew Schaefer, Islanders

• Logan Mailloux, Blues

A first overall pick would typically be viewed as the early Calder Trophy frontrunner, but defensemen tend to take longer to develop than forwards, so I recommend tempering your 2025-26 expectations when it comes to Schaefer. That's especially true in this case, because Schaefer logged just 17 OHL games last year due to mononucleosis and a collarbone injury. Look at about 40 points as the best-case scenario for his rookie campaign, and don't be shocked if he finishes below that. The rest of the options in this grouping arguably fall short of Schaefer's upside, but they have more seasoning that might result in some of them outperforming him in the short term. 

Parekh is a nice option if you want a blend of skill and grit, especially if your league counts PIM. Nikishin might be as close as you get to a "safe" option when you're talking about rookies — he has recorded at least 46 regular-season points in each of the past three campaigns in the KHL. Buium doesn't have that kind of resume, but he might record 30-plus points this year after scoring 13 goals and 48 points in 41 appearances as a sophomore with the University of Denver in 2024-25. Mailloux is the one member of this group that I wouldn't recommend drafting in a standard league at this time, but the 22-year-old blueliner is worth keeping an eye on during the season, especially if you're looking for someone who will contribute when it comes to the physical side of the game.

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The default start date for Yahoo's fantasy hockey playoffs (March 24) is right around the corner, so the most fun segment of the year is about to begin. Some of what's to come (as is true with so much else) will be decided by luck, but there are still some things we can do to put ourselves in a better position to succeed over the coming weeks, so here are three tips for navigating through the upcoming weeks. 

1. A Team's Situation Can Impact Your Players' Performance

Not every player is on a team with the same level of intensity and urgency right now. This is the time of year when teams on the playoff bubble can shine while certain teams that are better on paper, but have less to play for, can merely tread water.

We've already witnessed some of that. St. Louis, Ottawa and Montreal are three of the hottest teams in the NHL, while Toronto and Vegas have been a bit more of a mixed bag recently. Florida is looking like another example of a team that could underperform expectations down the stretch. The Panthers suffered back-to-back losses over the weekend to Montreal and the Islanders — two teams trying to claw into the playoffs. The difference in intensity between those fighting to get into the playoffs and those who have already essentially secured a spot is likely to only get starker as we get closer to the NHL postseason.

The one team that might be an exception to that is the Capitals.

Washington has a unique drive down the stretch with Alex Ovechkin chasing Wayne Gretzky's all-time goal record, so don't be surprised if Ovechkin's enthusiasm to hit that mark becomes a rallying point for the entire team, pushing the Capitals all-in even if their place in the standings is about as secure as it could be at this stage of the campaign.

The other category to consider is teams that are completely out of the playoff picture. On the one hand, those squads have the luxury of playing without pressure, but we might still see some squads like Nashville, Chicago and San Jose plummet as those squads slog toward the end of miserable seasons.

On an individual level, though, we might see more from young players during that stretch, especially as teams with nothing else to play for treat the final weeks as an extended audition. For example, Luca Cagnoni — a 20-year-old defenseman San Jose recalled Tuesday after providing an impressive 13 goals and 47 points in 56 appearances as an AHL rookie this campaign — is likely to get a short-term role with the Sharks that exceeds what he might have received at this time of year if he was playing for another squad. For that reason, players like Cagnoni could be decent pickups if they fill a role on your team, especially if you need help due to injuries.

Which brings us to our next topic …

2. The Focus Is Now

It's the time of year to be less tolerant of players who have gone cold. Now, don't go taking that philosophy too far and start dropping high-end players like Martin Necas just because he's been limited to a single point over his past four appearances, but players like Jonathan Marchessault (three points in past 12 appearances), Travis Konecny (two in past nine) and Carter Verhaeghe (three in past 11) are among those whom you might want to be less patient with. As we get deeper into the playoffs, you'll want to be even harsher in your assessment and potentially ditch even better players who are slumping. For example, in a week or two, I'd consider dropping even someone of the caliber of Kirill Marchenko (two in past eight) if he was enduring a cold slump comparable to his current one unless I had plans for him beyond this campaign.

The flip side of that is being bolder when grabbing players who are hot. Jordan Eberle (eight in past five), Taylor Hall (four in past three) and Pius Suter (five in past four) are some to keep in mind for the short term, and staying on top of who is hot at any given time will help you significantly.

Also, be mindful of any limitations you have in terms of moves you can make on a weekly basis. If you find yourself with the luxury of having moves to spare at any time, it might be advantageous to use them in preparation for players you anticipate needing in subsequent weeks.

For example, you might want to grab players who have busy schedules next week. Which brings us to …

3. A Team's Schedule Now Matters Almost as Much as a Player's Ability

We already touched on how the situation of a team can cause some squads, and therefore the players within that squad, to under/overperform across the final weeks of the campaign, but the team's schedule is also a massive consideration.

For example, it will be difficult for David Pastrnak to be a major factor in the quarterfinals (March 24-30) because Boston only has two road games set for that stretch. In the semifinals (March 31-April 6), you might get less out of Auston Matthews because Toronto will play only twice.

Keep that in mind and combine it with any considerations you have about a team's situation. I mentioned Ottawa and Montreal before, and streaming options from both of those squads might be of particular use to you in the quarterfinals because the Senators and Canadiens are each set to feature in four games over that span. Detroit, Utah, the Islanders, Vancouver and Detroit are other teams on the playoff bubble and are set to play four games next week.

For the semifinals, Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa, Boston and Columbus are each set to play four games and are also (at least at the time of writing) on that playoff bubble. I'll mention Washington again because the Capitals will play four games during the semifinals, and they have the extra motivation that comes with Ovechkin's record chase.

The finals are a bit too far off to fully appreciate what teams will have something to play for by that point, but keep in mind that once we're that late into the season, you might also have to contend with some teams who have nothing left to play for potentially using some of their top players more sparingly or even making an elite player a healthy scratch. You might also see teams with a secure position in the standings start to utilize their backup goaltender a little more to keep their starter fresh. That might not end up having a significant bearing on your league, but it's just another factor to stay on top of.

Most of all, though, just have fun with this and hope that luck is on your side!