All posts by Todd Cordell

Odds for Matthews’ next contract: How long will he stay in Toronto?

Auston Matthews holds a lot of cards in Toronto right now. How the Maple Leafs approach this offseason - and build the team for years to come - depends greatly on what Matthews decides is his best path forward.

Does he want to remain with the Maple Leafs? How long will he sign for? Is he willing to commit now or does he want to take his time, leaving the team a little exposed and uncomfortable?

Suffice it to say, new general manager Brad Treliving has his hands full with the face of the franchise's contract status up in the air.

Matthews loves playing in Toronto, and he's made that clear. He even told the media during his year-end media availability that his "intention is to be here."

So, with plenty of signs that he will eventually re-sign with the Maple Leafs, how long will his next contract be?

A betting line was released with an over/under of 4.5 years, with Matthews re-signing for four years or fewer opening as the slight favorite.

Length of next NHL contract (years) Opening odds
Over 4.5 +100
Under 4.5 -130

(Odds via theScore Bet)

This line indicates Matthews is going to choose a different path than most of the other NHL stars who have recently inked new deals.

Over the past couple of years, many of the league's premium point producers - Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, Jonathan Huberdeau, Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, Timo Meier, Dylan Larkin, Roope Hintz, Jesper Bratt, and Jason Robertson, to name but a few - have signed on the dotted line.

With the exception of Robertson, who got into a drawn-out dispute as a restricted free agent with the Dallas Stars, all of them signed for as long as they possibly could.

Player Cap Hit Length
Nathan MacKinnon $12.6 million 8 years
David Pastrnak $11.25 million 8 years
Jonathan Huberdeau $10.50 million 8 years
Johnny Gaudreau $9.75 million 7 years
Matthew Tkachuk $9.5 million 8 years
Timo Meier $8.8 million 8 years
Dylan Larkin $8.7 million 8 years
Roope Hintz $8.45 million 8 years
Jesper Bratt $7.875 million 8 years
Jason Robertson $7.75 million 4 years

Zooming out even further, Connor McDavid - the face of the NHL - signed for eight years in Edmonton when he was up for a new contract in 2017. He's another example of the sport's brightest stars committing to their home for as long as they can.

That's not the case with Matthews, who marches to the beat of his own drum. In 2019, he elected not to sign a max-term deal, instead extending with the Maple Leafs for five years.

He didn't have to sacrifice dollars to get the term he wanted, signing a contract with the then-highest average annual value ($11.64 million) outside of McDavid.

That move came with Matthews aware that he could make even more down the road. Now, here he is again, eyeing a contract that could earn him more than $13 million per season.

By sacrificing some term - and waiting for the salary cap to rise - Matthews will likely make at least $2 million more per season than he would if he signed for eight years during the previous negotiation.

There's no reason to expect a change in tune for Matthews. If he forwent max term in a somewhat flat-cap world, he should do the same when the league is set to reach new heights.

The expectation is the salary cap will rise nearly $10 million over the next few years, with Forbes projecting an approximate cap of $92 million in 2025-26.

That's a big jump from the $82.5-million limit last season and the $83.5-million limit for 2023-24.

What Matthews could sign for today - the most money in the league on a per-year basis - could again be millions of dollars less than he can get in a handful of years.

Will Matthews opt for another five-year deal and re-evaluate the league's salary-cap structure - and where the Maple Leafs are at - when the time comes?

Will he go even shorter, opting for a three-year contract so he'll still be on the right side of 30 when he signs his next mega-extension?

What Matthews decides could also impact Mitch Marner. With two years remaining on Marner's deal, we could see a similar situation this time next year.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL draft betting preview: Finding value after Connor Bedard

The 2023 NHL Entry Draft is just a couple of days away, and there's still a ton of uncertainty about how things will play out.

It's all but guaranteed that the Chicago Blackhawks will take Connor Bedard with the first overall selection. What happens in the picks that immediately follow is far less certain.

Let's take a closer look and see if there's any value to be had.

2nd overall pick

Player Odds
Adam Fantilli -425
Leo Carlsson +325
Matvei Michkov +1100
Will Smith +3300
David Reinbacher +8000
Ryan Leonard +8000

Adam Fantilli is heavily favored to be chosen second - and rightfully so. He put forth a fantastic NCAA campaign, piling up nearly two points per game with Michigan. That's unheard-of for a freshman.

He topped a great season with a stellar performance at the World Hockey Championship in May, playing an everyday role for a Canadian team that claimed gold.

Fantilli is a puck-dominant center who plays a premium position and possesses high-end speed, skill, and NHL size (he's 6-foot-2).

Even so, there is some noise about whether the Anaheim Ducks may go in a different direction and take Carlsson instead.

He also brings a lot of size, speed, and skill to the table. And, under director of scouting turned assistant general manager Martin Madden, the Ducks have a long history of drafting Swedish prospects high in the draft.

At the end of the day, though, I see Fantilli going second.

3rd overall pick

Player Odds
Leo Carlsson -180
Will Smith +210
Adam Fantilli +450
Matvei Michkov +1000
Ryan Leonard +3000
David Reinbacher +4000

Assuming Bedard and Fantilli are off the board, there is some value in getting Carlsson at this price.

If Michkov is out of the question due to the uncertainty around his future NHL availability, Carlsson is very clearly the best player remaining on the board. He also plays a position the Columbus Blue Jackets are in desperate need of.

The Blue Jackets have plenty of talent on the wing in Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, Kent Johnson, and Kirill Marchenko, with the latter scoring 21 goals in 59 games as a rookie. The organization severely lacks talent down the middle. The team needs a top-line center who can distribute the puck, threaten as a shooter, and hold his own against high-end competition. Carlsson can fill that role.

I could see Will Smith being considered here, but this seems like a no-brainer for the Blue Jackets. Carlsson checks all of the club's boxes.

4th overall pick

Player Odds
Will Smith -140
Leo Carlsson +200
Matvei Michkov +320
David Reinbacher +500
Adam Fantilli +2000
Ryan Leonard +2000

This is where things get interesting. The teams in the top three can all easily justify their selections - and passing on Michkov - because they're getting the best player on the board (Bedard) or top-four talents at arguably the most important position in the sport (Fantilli and Carlsson).

Smith is a fantastic prospect, but he's not quite in the same tier as Michkov in terms of raw talent and upside. If all else was equal, Michkov would be a safe bet here.

That's not the case, which means Sharks GM Mike Grier has a very difficult decision to make in his first NHL draft. The Sharks won't be overly competitive for a few seasons, and Grier is early in his tenure, so he has the safety net to play the long game. He doesn't need to chase immediate results. There is a difference between immediate results and guaranteed results, though.

If we fast-forward three years, Michkov will likely be able to impact a game more than almost anybody else on this list. But will he be available to do so?

Passing on a potential top-line weapon in Smith only to be left empty-handed would be tough for the rebuilding Sharks.

With an implied 58% probability of taking Smith, he seems to carry a bit of value.

5th overall pick

Player Odds
Ryan Leonard +175
David Reinbacher +180
Matvei Michkov +275
William Smith +500
Dalibor Dvorsky +900

This is a fun spot, and it may be best to double dip here. Ryan Leonard is a fantastic goal-scorer who works his tail off and provides value by doing dirty work. He makes a lot of sense for a Canadiens team that could use more of those elements.

If the draft plays out with Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, and Smith going off the board in the first four picks - no matter the order - there is a better than 36% chance the Canadiens take Leonard with the fifth overall pick.

That being said, I think Smith is worth a sprinkle as well. The Canadiens don't have a ton of center talent in the organization, and Smith is a high-ceiling pivot who could pile up the points while Nick Suzuki plays more of a two-way role and focuses on the difficult matchups.

If Michkov goes in the top four, I think Smith will be the pick. I would rather play Smith to go fifth at +500 than Michkov fourth at +320. In a way, this feels like banking on Michkov to go fourth at a much better price than if you simply bet into that market.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Draft best bets: 3 players worth targeting

The 2023 NHL Entry Draft is less than a week away! All the attention is being focused on Connor Bedard and who will follow him - Adam Fantilli or Leo Carlsson? How far will Matvei Michkov fall? However, I see the betting value a little further down the board.

Let's take a look at three plays that stand out, all of which can be found on theScore Bet.

Nate Danielson over 10.5

Danielson is a solid two-way center who had a productive year with the Brandon Wheat Kings. He put up 78 points in 68 games while leading the team in goals, assists, and points.

He's a well-balanced pivot who can do a bit of everything. But there have been questions about his ceiling, which would need to be quite high for him to warrant a top-10 selection in a very strong draft.

Bob McKenzie slotted Danielson 16th in his final draft rankings, which are informed by opinions from scouts representing 10 NHL teams. It's also worth noting that none of said scouts ranked him higher than 11th overall.

Although it only takes one team to love Danielson's game, I'm happy to take plus money on the over for a prospect who ranked closer to 20 than 10.

Odds: +140 (playable to -110)

Oliver Moore under 14.5

High-end skating ability is more important than ever before. Everybody wants to play fast to help win pucks, be it on the forecheck or pressuring on the backcheck. Oliver Moore has it in spades.

This kid is an excellent puck-transporter who can kill teams both in transition and off the rush with his straight-line speed. He also works hard without the puck and, again, his wheels are a huge factor.

The Buffalo Sabres (picking 13th) and Pittsburgh Penguins (14th) are a couple of teams I'd keep a close eye on with Moore.

Buffalo is one of the fastest teams in the NHL, so Moore would fit in nicely. Meanwhile, the Penguins are starved for quality prospects, particularly up front. A talented, competitive, speedster who is perhaps a little undersized strikes me as a player president and interim general manager Kyle Dubas could target.

It'll be tight, but I think Moore sneaks into the top 14.

Odds: -105 (playable to -125)

Colby Barlow under 16.5

Barlow had a remarkably impressive year in the OHL. Serving as the captain of the Owen Sound Attack, he netted a whopping 46 goals in just 59 games while pacing the team with 79 points.

He has a relentless work ethic, doesn't shy away from the dirty areas of the ice, and contributes in all aspects of the game.

Players with his kind of goal output don't tend to last long in drafts. He's also a complete player and a leader, making teams all the more interested.

The hard-working winger came in 12th in McKenzie's rankings and was ranked sixth by HockeyProspect.

Barlow strikes me as the kind of player more likely to be over-drafted than free fall, which is what would need to happen for this play to lose.

The price is a little juicy, but I think it's worth paying.

Odds: -160 (playable to -185)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Stanley Cup Game 5 best bets: Golden Knights to defend the ‘Fortress’

It's now or never for the Panthers. Trailing 3-1 in the series, their backs are squarely against the wall as they enter the "Fortress" in hopes of clawing their way back into the series.

Can they bring it back home for a Game 6, or will the Golden Knights prove too much to slow down? Let's take a closer look.

Panthers (+150) @ Golden Knights (-175)

Let's call a spade a spade: The Golden Knights are the far superior team.

They have outscored the Panthers 17-9 through four games and been full value for it. The Golden Knights have controlled a 57% share of the expected goals at five-on-five and scored six goals in just 28 minutes on the power play.

That latter stat equates to 12.79 goals per 60 on the man advantage, closely aligning to the clip that a historically great Oilers power play clicked at during the regular season.

Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, and the Golden Knights' litany of fantastic two-way forwards have caused the Panthers problems at both ends of the ice during full-strength play. Florida has not been able to make up that ground on special teams.

With the Golden Knights being the much better side at five-on-five and the power play firing on all cylinders, the Panthers need Sergei Bobrovsky to be the great equalizer. He hasn't been.

While he's only had one truly bad game in this series, he has only been adequate over the other three. Adequate is not good enough.

The Golden Knights possess edges all across the board. They're at home playing in one of the loudest buildings in the sport. The Panthers have key players - most notably Matthew Tkachuk - at far less than 100%. And the list goes on.

Everything points toward the Golden Knights claiming their first Stanley Cup in franchise history. I expect they'll get it Tuesday and without the need for additional time.

Bet: Golden Knights in regulation (-115)

Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots (-140)

Volume is king in the shot world, and Barkov certainly has it. He has piled up 27 shot attempts through four games, good for an average of nearly seven per contest.

He has attempted at least five in three of four games thus far. That has been the sweet spot for Barkov all season long. The star pivot has gone over his shot total in 38 of 44 games he has amassed at least five attempts, which equates to a whopping 86% success rate.

Barkov leads all Panthers in expected goals for percentage in this series. More so than anyone else, the Panthers are outplaying the Golden Knights with Barkov on the ice.

With the Panthers controlling play when Barkov's out there and the captain set to chew up all the ice he can handle in a do-or-die affair, he's worth backing in Game 5.

Chandler Stephenson over 1.5 shots (-131)

Stephenson has quietly been an efficient shooter in this series. He has attempted 18 shots (4.5 per game) and registered 12 on target (3.0) through the first four games. Those are very solid numbers for a player with such a low total.

What I love about Stephenson's volume is that a lot of it is coming at five-on-five. In fact, a team-leading 10 of his 12 shots have been recorded in that game state.

This series has featured an awful lot of special teams play. With the Stanley Cup on the line and elimination a real possibility for the Panthers, I believe the refs will be a little looser with the whistle. They're not going to want these teams parading to the box and special teams deciding a winner.

I expect a lot of five-on-five play, and that's where Stephenson has done a lot of his damage. Look for him to clear this line for the fourth consecutive game.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Stanley Cup Final Game 3 best bets: Panthers to claw their way into series

The Vegas Golden Knights successfully defended home ice in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final, winning both while outscoring the Florida Panthers 12-4 on aggregate.

Can the Panthers push back in Game 3 or will the Golden Knights put them on the brink of elimination? Let's take a closer look.

Golden Knights (+105) @ Panthers (-125)

The scorelines we've seen through two games are not very flattering to the Panthers.

While there are definitely some red flags - they've taken far too many penalties and Sergei Bobrovsky looks vulnerable - I think the Panthers played a lot better than the scoreboard suggests.

At five-on-five, the Panthers won the high-danger chance battle 22-21 while outshooting the Golden Knights. Adin Hill performed at a very high level and Bobrovsky didn't, combining with Alex Lyon to allow nearly 20% of the shots faced at full strength.

Goaltending is by and large the difference right now. Bobrovsky hasn't been the unbeatable force we saw through three rounds (quite the contrary), and Hill has.

I think the majority of the Panthers' game is in an OK spot. They're more than holding their own at five-on-five. They just need to be more disciplined and, ideally, get even average goaltending from Bobrovsky. They don't need to raise their level that much. They're going to come out firing at home and empty the tank to get a result in Game 3.

If they lose this game, the series is as good as over. They know it, you know it, and I know it.

I'm expecting the Panthers to match the Golden Knights at even strength, if not outplay them. So long as they can get a save, I like their chances of making this a series - at least temporarily.

Bet: Panthers (-125)

Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots (-130)

Injuries don't seem to be hampering the Panthers' star center. He attempted 13 shots over the first couple games, which is as many or more than every other forward in the series.

Barkov came up a puck shy in Game 1 - albeit not for a lack of opportunities - and followed that up with a successful eight-attempt performance.

I'm expecting another productive effort from Barkov in Game 3. He has been a machine at home all season, going over the number in 27 of 42 games (64%) in Florida.

He is routinely playing 22-plus minutes and that will no doubt remain the case with the team's season on the line. It's also worth noting Barkov has a strong history against the Golden Knights, going over in four of six meetings while attempting at least five shots in all but one of them.

Win or lose, I'm expecting Barkov to get his fair share of looks on net.

Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 shots (-110)

Double dip? Double dip! We're running it back with another Panthers shooter.

Tkachuk is a monster on home ice. He's registered at least four shots in 30 of 46 games in Florida, hitting at a healthy 65% clip. He has enjoyed success against the Golden Knights, too, going over the number in three of four meetings this year.

Tkachuk himself talked about simplifying things and getting more pucks on Hill in this game. He'll certainly have a plethora of opportunities to do just that, as the puck is always on his stick in the offensive zone and he's going to get as many minutes as he can handle.

Look for him to make the most of them.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Stanley Cup Game 2 best bets: Offenses to shine in Vegas

Powered by a dominant third period, the Golden Knights took care of business in the opening game of the series.

Can they replicate that performance - and grab a 2-0 lead - or will the Panthers fight back and claw away home-ice advantage?

Let's take a closer look as we dive into three best bets for the second game of the series.

Panthers (+120) @ Golden Knights (-140)

The Panthers did a great job of limiting the damage opposing offenses could inflict over the first three rounds of the playoffs. They deserve credit for that. But it's also worth noting they didn't face any teams that were creating anywhere close to the level of the Golden Knights.

The Bruins netted 2.31 goals per 60 at five-on-five in the opening series. That would've sandwiched them between the Flyers and Coyotes - two horrendous teams - during the regular season. Yet that's the highest output of any team the Panthers faced en route to the Stanley Cup Final.

The Maple Leafs averaged only 2.22 goals per 60 over 11 playoff games, while the Hurricanes scored just 2.26 spanning 15 games. All of those teams seemed happy to try to dull the game down and bank on their side converting at a better rate. It didn't happen.

Vegas, on the other hand, is simply overwhelming teams offensively. The Golden Knights have scored a whopping 3.46 goals per 60 at five-on-five, the best mark of any playoff team - and it's not close.

They're completely railroading each and every team that stands in their way, generating a good dose of chances in the zone and destroying teams in transition following turnovers forced by their great two-way game (led by Mark Stone).

They made Sergei Bobrovsky look human in the series opener, scoring four goals on 33 shots. That marked the first time since Game 7 of the first round that Bobrovsky has allowed more than three goals or posted a sub .900 save percentage.

I think the Golden Knights are going to score their fair share of goals in this series. They have all playoffs despite facing Jake Oettinger, Connor Hellebuyck, and an Oilers team that entered the playoffs in as good of form as anybody in the league.

If those goaltenders, or teams, couldn't slow the Golden Knights' offense down, I don't see Bobrovsky doing it - especially after such a long layoff that could've taken him out of the zone he was in.

That means the Panthers will need to score goals to keep up. I think that'll lead to them taking more chances and to higher event games, one way or the other.

Bet: Over 5.5 (-120)

Alex Pietrangelo over 2.5 shots (+110)

Pietrangelo had a strong shooting performance in the opening game of the series, attempting six shots while hitting the target three times.

His shooting success is nothing new on home ice, nor against the Panthers. Pietrangelo has hit in four of the last six playoff games in Vegas and attempted at least five shots in all of them.

That has been somewhat of a magic number for Pietrangelo this season. He's attempted five shots or more 44 times, clearing his prop line in 30 of those games. That's good for a 68% success rate.

I think Pietrangelo should be able to get to that mark again in this one. He's playing a lot of minutes at even strength, getting a lot of reps on the power play, and has hit in all three games against the Panthers this year.

We're getting a more than fair price in backing Pietrangelo to do it again.

Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots (-110)

Barkov let us down in Game 1 of the series, recording two shots on goal over the first two periods but failing to get the third while the Panthers piled up shots pushing to tie the game. It wasn't for a lack of opportunity, though, as Barkov was credited with five scoring chances in the game.

He generated the volume necessary to get the job done, and his shots came from good locations. He just didn't get the puck on target. That's generally not an issue for Barkov, who hit the net on 62% of his shot attempts during the regular season.

He's playing 21-plus minutes each and every night, so the opportunities should be there. If he can be a little more clinical with hitting the target, he should get back on track in Game 2.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Stanley Cup Game 1 best bets: Golden Knights to draw first blood

The Stanley Cup Final begins this weekend, with the Golden Knights playing host to the Panthers in a battle of Sunbelt teams.

Let's take a look at the best ways to approach the series opener.

Panthers (+110) @ Golden Knights (-130)

I am expecting a close and competitive series here - one that starts with a Golden Knights win.

The Golden Knights have been impressive through three rounds. They haven't just beaten their opponents; they've dismantled them.

At five-on-five, the Golden Knights have scored 3.42 goals per 60 minutes. No other playoff team has cleared three. The Panthers aren't even close to that number, scoring 2.15 per 60.

Scoring goals isn't as much of a priority if you never allow them. To Florida's credit, it's done a great job in that regard. Solid defensive play coupled with lights-out performances from Sergei Bobrovsky has resulted in opponents scoring only 1.71 goals per 60. That equates to a net of 0.44 per 60.

The problem for Florida is Vegas has done an even better job of keeping the puck out, allowing only 1.64 goals per 60. Vegas' net is 1.78 per 60 minutes, a significantly better margin than Florida's.

What I love about the Golden Knights is they've won more decisively and sustainably. Their expected goal share is better than 4% higher, and they've done a better job of preventing chances.

Adin Hill has been great, for sure, but they haven't asked as much of him as the Panthers have of Bobrovsky. Sooner or later, one would think the latter will slow down under such a difficult workload.

The Golden Knights are 6-3 at home these playoffs and have outscored opponents by 10 at full strength.

Look for them to flex their muscles in that area - and use home ice to their advantage - in a series-opening win.

Bet: Golden Knights (-130)

Jonathan Marchessault over 3.5 shots (+120)

Marchessault is the Golden Knights' top shooting weapon. He leads the team in shots on target, scoring chances, and expected goals through three rounds.

In some categories - such as chances, where Marchessault leads by 15 - the gap between Marchessault and the next closest teammate is rather significant.

I expect Marchessault to pick up where he left off in the opening game of this series. His line should get more advantageous matchups on home ice, with Mark Stone's unit taking on the toughest minutes.

It's also worth noting Marchessault skates on the top power play, and the Panthers are one of the more undisciplined teams in the league. He should get plenty of opportunities on the man advantage.

As a cherry on top, there's the revenge factor. The Panthers didn't protect Marchessault in the 2017 expansion draft, electing to send him and Reilly Smith to Vegas to protect others.

Now he can stick it to his old team and make them pay for that decision on the biggest stage.

Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots (-105)

Barkov is generally someone I prefer backing on home ice. However, he's worthy of an exception here.

If you remove Game 3 of the Hurricanes series - Barkov only played three minutes due to injury - he has gone over his total in six of the past nine playoff games. That's despite facing strong shot-suppression teams in the Bruins, Maple Leafs, and Hurricanes.

Believe it or not, the Golden Knights are the worst opponent he has faced in terms of preventing shots - at least during the regular season. They give up a healthy chunk of them to the center position, too.

Much like the Hurricanes, the Golden Knights are a team that can be exposed by powerful, talented opposing forwards who fight their way to the dirty areas of the ice. Barkov fits the bill, which is probably why he's mustered five shots on goal in three of the past four against Vegas.

Expect his shot-generating success to continue in Game 1.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Expect tight D in Dallas

Once looking like a snoozer of a series, the Stars have fought their way back into the mix and have the ability to force a Game 7 with a win over the Golden Knights.

Let's take a look at a few of my favorite ways to attack what should be an exhilarating affair.

Golden Knights (+110) @ Stars (-130)

The Golden Knights and Stars have consistently played low-scoring games. Of their eight meetings this season, six featured five goals or fewer. These teams just don't score a ton against one another.

I don't expect that to change in Game 6. For one, the Stars have actually done a very good job of limiting chances in this series.

Jake Oettinger was among the team's problems over the first few games. With his performances back to norm and settled, we shouldn't expect fireworks.

On the other end of the ice, the Golden Knights have done a nice job of limiting expected goals. Of the teams to crack the final four, only the Stars fare better in that regard.

These teams can defend. Oettinger has it in him to steal games, and Adin Hill has played much better than anybody could have anticipated.

Not to mention, this is an elimination game. Those tend to be played tighter to the vest, with neither team wanting to get overly antsy and make a mistake when the stakes are so high.

Through the last game of each series thus far, the Stars and Golden Knights' closeout affairs have combined for five goals or less in three of four contests.

I expect that trend to continue on Monday night.

Bet: Under 5.5 (-110)

Jonathan Marchessault over 0.5 points (-135)

Marchessault is scorching hot. Dating back to the last series against the Oilers, the highly skilled offensive winger has registered at least one point in seven of nine games - including four in a row against these Stars.

He has been extremely prolific during that period, producing 14 points. That's good for an average of 1.55 per contest.

Win or lose, I like Marchessault's chances of getting involved offensively in this game. He has registered at least three shots on target in nine of the past 10 games, giving him a real chance at finding the back of the net each night.

He also plays on a line with the Golden Knights' most talented player - Jack Eichel - at five-on-five and on the top power play. There's no role that would serve him better in an effort to find the scoresheet.

Look for Marchessault to stay hot in Game 6.

Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots (-105)

It took a while but Robertson has finally come alive as a shooter. Normally reliant on the power play, Robertson has been pretty quiet in these playoffs as extra-man opportunities have continued to dry up. Until now.

We're not seeing a bunch of power plays - quite the contrary - but Robertson is starting to fire from anywhere and everywhere at even-strength. Even more so on home ice, where Game 6 will be played tonight.

The Stars have played two home games in this series. Robertson attempted double-digit shots in each of them, combining for 12 shots on 24 attempts.

Home cooking has been the theme of Robertson's season. Playoffs included, he has a 61% hit rate in Dallas. That number drops to 40% on the road.

With home ice in his back pocket, and the Stars' season on the line, you can bet they'll be trying to get the puck in the hands of their top finisher as much as possible. Expect a handful of shots.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Going under in Dallas

The Florida Panthers punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday night with a dramatic win over the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Vegas Golden Knights will hope to do the same and complete a sweep of their own Thursday in Dallas.

Let's take a look at the best ways to attack the game.

Golden Knights (+105) @ Stars (-125)

The Stars and Golden Knights have met six times this season, including the playoffs. Five of those games featured five goals or fewer.

The lone exception came in the opening contest of the series, where the Stars tied the contest late in regulation to push the game over the number and force extra time. Both teams generated 35-plus shots in that contest and had more than their fair share of scoring chances.

The past two games haven't played out that way. These teams recorded just 52 shots on goal in Game 2 and only 50 in Game 3.

I expect we'll see the same this time around. With Jake Oettinger struggling mightily and a key weapon out of the lineup in Jamie Benn, I very much doubt the Stars will try to open the game up and turn things into a track meet.

The same can be said of the Golden Knights. They've gotten this far playing structured, grind-it-out hockey. Getting away from that and trading chances with Adin Hill between the pipes is probably not the optimal path to victory.

With the extremely high stakes present in a 3-0 situation, I expect both sides to play pretty close to the vest, taking this to an under for the sixth time in seven meetings.

Bet: Under 5.5 (-120)

Tyler Seguin over 2.5 shots (-132)

Seguin is a Golden Knights killer, at least when it comes to generating shots. He leads the entire series with 22 attempts through three games, good for an average of more than seven per.

This kind of volume is nothing new for Seguin. For whatever reason, he's feasted on the Golden Knights for quite some time.

Seguin has piled up 29 shots on goal through six meetings against Vegas this calendar year, which is an average of nearly five.

There's no reason to expect anything different in Game 4. Seguin led all Stars forwards in ice time last game, logging over 20 minutes despite the blowout.

He should once again get all he can handle this time around, especially with Benn sidelined due to suspension. Look for Seguin to take advantage.

Wyatt Johnston over 2.5 shots (+110)

Johnston is another player who should benefit greatly from Benn's absence. He played close to 19 minutes last time out, which was his highest total since Game 1 of the Seattle series.

Johnston made the most of his ice time, generating four shots on goal and a pair of scoring chances while helping the Stars win the attempt battle 14-5 at five-on-five.

Johnston's strong form goes beyond last game. He's registered at least four shots on goal in four consecutive contests and gone over his total in four of the past five against Vegas.

With Johnston creating shots in bulk and seeing a boost in usage sans Benn, we should expect another lively offensive effort.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Thursday best bets: Hurricanes to strike 1st vs. Panthers

The third round of the NHL playoffs kicks off Thursday night, with a couple of sunbelt teams set to square off in Carolina.

Let's get right to the best bets.

Panthers (+120) @ Hurricanes (-140)

The Hurricanes have been very impressive through the opening two rounds. Despite dealing with several key injuries, they own an 8-3 record and have been shockingly good at generating offense.

Among the 16 teams to qualify for the playoffs, only the Oilers managed to generate expected goals at a higher clip during five-on-five play. With the Oilers bounced, the Hurricanes are the best of the bunch.

That's remarkable considering they entered the playoffs without their two best goal-scorers and promptly lost Teuvo Teravainen to a healthy slash on the hands.

The good news for the Hurricanes is that reinforcements are on the way. Teravainen has recovered remarkably quickly and is expected to rejoin Carolina for its series opener against the Panthers.

He should provide the Hurricanes a nice jolt, giving them more talent to help convert on the abundance of chances they've managed to create without so many key pieces.

With the way Sergei Bobrovsky is playing right now, the Hurricanes need to continue generating chances in bulk - and they need players like Teravainen on the receiving end.

Luckily, that shouldn't be a problem. The Hurricanes have fared better at five-on-five during the playoffs and feasted on the Panthers in that aspect during the regular season, posting expected goal shares of 57%, 63%, and 65% over three head-to-head meetings.

The Jaccob Slavin-Brent Burns pairing - and Carolina's relentless forechecking - should not only help neutralize Florida's offense but also lead to some excellent counterattacking opportunities against Bobrovsky.

Sooner or later, he's going to come back down to earth. It could be soon considering the Hurricanes have had no trouble filling the net, scoring 3.54 goals per 60 minutes in these playoffs.

Look for them to break through the wall of Bobrovsky and claim a Game 1 victory.

Bet: Hurricanes (-140)

Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots (-110)

The Hurricanes aren't prone to breakdowns that allow opponents to generate Grade A opportunities off the rush. Opponents have to sustain pressure in the offensive zone and grind their way to the dirty areas to get shots on net. That's exactly what Barkov likes to do and likely plays a large part in his successful history against Carolina.

Barkov has registered at least three shots in eight of the last nine meetings against the Hurricanes. He fell only one short in the lone exception and missed the net twice, meaning the opportunity was there.

Barkov is routinely playing 22-plus minutes a night during these playoffs. Having sat on the sidelines resting for an extended period, he'll undoubtedly get a full workload. Look for him to take advantage.

Brent Burns over 3.5 shots (-110)

Of the teams to win a round, the Panthers are last in the Eastern Conference in shots allowed per game to opposing defensemen. That spells trouble when going up against a player like Burns.

He's teeing off on a nightly basis, particularly at home. Burns has recorded four shots or more in four of six home dates, averaging just under 10 attempts per game in that time.

He's playing 23-plus minutes per game and is as trigger-happy as any defenseman in the league. Without the goal-scoring threats of Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty, it's even more imperative that Burns contributes offensively. There's no reason to expect that volume to drop.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.