All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Monday best bets: Stars to shine in Game 7

The Vegas Golden Knights advanced to the third round of the playoffs on Sunday night, erasing an early 2-1 deficit en route to an impressive road win over the Edmonton Oilers.

We'll find out who their next opponent is in what should be an exciting Game 7. Let's take a look at the best ways to attack it.

Kraken (+170) @ Stars (-200)

The Stars - like the Kraken - have taken their lumps in this series. They have consistently shown resiliency and responded, no matter how bad the previous effort.

The Stars dropped Game 1 on home ice and followed it up with a multi-goal victory. They lost again in Game 3, getting blown out of the rink by a 7-2 scoreline, and followed that up with yet another multi-goal victory.

Bouncing back from off nights is a key sign of a great team, and the Stars have shown that time and time again. Including their first-round series against the Wild, the Stars are 4-0 with a plus-10 goal differential following a loss.

Impressive totals, especially on the biggest stage - but that shouldn't be surprising. The Stars have done this for quite some time. They have lost back-to-back games only once since the beginning of March.

Whether the Stars are faced with a one-goal defeat or blown out of the rink, they consistently rebound with a win. I expect that will be the case against the Kraken in Game 7.

For as vulnerable as the Stars have looked at times this playoffs, they lead all 16 teams in expected goals at five-on-five. They've controlled better than 55% of the xG share and have finished at 66% or higher in three of the past five against these Kraken.

The Kraken are a deep team, but they lack star power and that has been very evident at times.

It's worth noting Dallas' big guns are remarkably more productive on home ice. Roope Hintz (12 points), Joe Pavelski (eight), Jason Robertson (eight), and Miro Heiskanen (seven) have all piled up the points at home. For perspective, Hintz (six) is tied for the team lead in points on the road.

Look for the Stars' top players to shine in Dallas and help guide them to a win inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Stars in regulation (-125)

Roope Hintz over 2.5 shots (-140)

Robertson and Heiskanen were the priority targets for shots all season long. They have taken a back seat to Hintz in the playoffs, though.

Hintz leads all Stars skaters in goals, points, shots, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities through nearly two rounds.

If we isolate the Kraken series, Hintz takes a back seat to Pavelski in a couple of those categories - but shots remain an exception.

He has registered 21 through six games, going over the total in four of six meetings. That success rate is nothing new for Hintz against the Kraken. Throughout their existence, he has generated at least three shots in eight of 12 games.

With the Stars at home in a do-or-die affair, head coach Pete DeBoer will no doubt lean heavily on Hintz and the team's top players. There might not be a tomorrow, and their usage should reflect as much.

Look for Hintz - the team's top offensive threat through two rounds - to make the most of his ice.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Friday best bets: Maple Leafs to live another day

We have a juicy two-gamer ahead of us to begin the weekend. Elimination is on the line in the early window, while the late contest is a swing game with each team missing its best defensemen in the series due to suspension. Fun stuff!

Let's take a closer look at three of the bets that most stand out.

Panthers (+150) @ Maple Leafs (-175)

With their backs against the wall, the Maple Leafs took a different approach in Game 4 against the Panthers - and it worked.

Rather than try to open things up offensively and score their way to victory, they simplified their game and focused on playing the suffocating style opposing teams always try to use against them.

The Maple Leafs worked as hard without the puck as they did with it. They completely sucked the life out of the Panthers' attack at five-on-five, holding them to only 1.62 expected goals generated. That's nearly a full xG less than their previous lowest output in this series.

Perhaps the Maple Leafs felt this approach was necessary with youngster Joseph Woll between the pipes. Perhaps they felt it was the best way to win no matter who was between the pipes. Either way, the change paid off.

Toronto controlled more than 58% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, their second-highest total of the playoffs and best mark of the series. And they didn't give up a goal in that game state.

They had answers for all of the questions surrounding the team, too. It's so often been about the stars going quiet in an elimination games or the power play not finding a way to make its mark. Not in Game 4.

The Maple Leafs scored on one of their two power-play opportunities. William Nylander and Mitch Marner found the back of the net. Auston Matthews and John Tavares combined for nine shots and a bundle of chances. The stars did enough, and the defense was great behind them.

I expect Toronto to ride that wave and come through with another victory at home, where it really caused the Panthers problems defensively.

It feels like ages ago, but the Maple Leafs combined for more than nine expected goals over the first two home games. They made a few blunders in bad spots - and paid the price for it - but by and large generated chances in bulk. Sergei Bobrovsky was the only thing slowing them down.

I don't expect him to turn into Swiss cheese on a whim. Having said that, he has by far the highest second-round save percentage at .934. Sooner or later, one would expect that to regress and Bobrovsky to be the .900 goaltender we've watched for years now.

Should that regression start to kick in Friday night, the Maple Leafs will likely extend the series with a multi-goal victory inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Maple Leafs in regulation (-110)

Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots (-120)

Matthews let us down in Florida - he had four shots last time out - but we're going back to the well at home Friday night.

He put forth matching offensive performances in Games 1 and 2 of the series, recording six shots on 11 attempts in each.

The higher volume at home is a trend we've seen from Matthews - and many star players - all season long. His hit rate is 14% higher when playing in Toronto than on the road.

He should get a few extra shifts in cushier matchups, and in a do-or-die game, he could approach 25 minutes of ice if the game is close. He'll have every opportunity to get the job done.

Evan Bouchard over 2.5 shots (+115)

Bouchard has quietly posted some strong shooting numbers against the Golden Knights. He's attempted 25 shots through four games, good for an average of more than six per contest. That'll more often than not be enough for a player with a 2.5 line - and Bouchard is no different.

The Oilers defenseman has a 63% hit rate this season when attempting at least six shots. If we adjust to games where he had at least seven attempts, a number Bouchard has already hit twice this series, his success rate climbs to a whopping 74%.

I think we could see that sort of ceiling from Bouchard in this game. He's already the quarterback for the top power play. With Darnell Nurse suspended, he'll play an even bigger role at even strength as well.

Bouchard should log 22 minutes or more, which is more than enough time for such a trigger-happy player to get three shots.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Will the over trend continue?

For the second night in a row, we have an exciting slate featuring an elimination game and a swing game.

Let's dive into the best ways to attack them.

Devils (+110) @ Hurricanes (-130)

This series hasn't been overly exciting in terms of competitiveness. All four games to date were complete blowouts decided by four goals or more.

But it has been exciting in terms of offense. We've seen 32 goals through four games, good for an average of eight per game. The lowest output thus far was in Game 1, where the two sides combined for six goals.

The reason that's exciting is because of the total. Each game, the line was set at 5.5, and each game, we had more than that.

While Akira Schmid versus Frederik Andersen is probably the optimal goaltending matchup for preventing goals, I still expect to see plenty.

Schmid has come back down to earth following a lights-out performance against the Rangers. He's appeared three times in this series, allowing eight goals on just 48 shots. That's an .833 save percentage.

Clearly, he hasn't played impeccable hockey, and being yo-yoed in and out of the net probably won't help his confidence, either. I think Schmid is a better goaltender than he's shown in this series, but certainly not the guy we saw dominate the Rangers in the opening round.

On the flip side, Andersen is a gettable goaltender as well. He's statistically one of the worst goaltenders in the league in terms of coughing up rebounds. There should be second-chance opportunities for a Devils team that has plenty of supremely talented forwards.

Andersen has tightened up a little bit in the playoffs, but during the regular season, he legitimately was a negative in goals saved above expected. That means he allowed more goals than he should have, given the workload faced.

The Hurricanes have proven they can score without some of their big guns up front. If they're behind, they'll put a ton of pressure on Schmid.

We know the Devils have plenty of stars as well that can get to Andersen. Not to mention, they'll likely pull the goalie with plenty of time to spare if they're down one, two, or even three goals in the third period. That could lead to an extra tuck or two to get us over the number.

Bet: Over 5.5 (-125)

Brent Burns over 3.5 shots (+110)

It hasn't been a noisy series for Burns. While his Hurricanes hold a commanding 3-1 lead over the Devils, he hasn't been overly involved in the offense. He's found the scoresheet in only one of four games and failed to record four shots in any of them.

Despite that, I still favor Burns in this spot. He's been a monster at home in these playoffs, attempting 46 shots over five games and generating at least eight attempts in all but one. The exception was Game 1 against the Devils, where the Hurricanes led for 50 minutes and didn't need to attack.

One would think the Devils aren't going to get blown out again with their season on the line. If that proves true, Burns will spend upwards of 25 minutes on the ice looking for opportunities to get involved and help create offense.

Roope Hintz over 2.5 shots (-135)

Hintz has cracked the Kraken. He's piled up 15 shots through the first four games of the series, going over his total in all but Game 4. That was a blowout in which the Stars spent the final period and change dumping pucks in and not seeming the least bit interested in trying to generate any offense.

His two best shooting games of the series came at home, where Hintz attempted six and seven shots in Games 1 and 2, respectively. Hintz is a selective shooter who likes to get in tight before pulling the trigger, so if he's generating that kind of volume, it's going to lead to insane success.

That's no exaggeration, either. Over the 30 games Hintz attempted six shots or more, he recorded at least three shots in 26 of them. That translates to an 87% hit rate.

He's gone over the number in four of five home playoff games and all five home games played against the Kraken this season. Look for him to stay hot in Game 5.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Oilers to outduel Golden Knights

We have a pair of high-stakes games ahead of us on Wednesday night. The Florida Panthers have the ability to punch their ticket to the final four with a win on home ice, while the series out west carries huge swing potential.

Let's take a look at a few of the best ways to attack these games.

Golden Knights (+160) @ Oilers (-190)

The Oilers have been a roller coaster through most of these playoffs. One night they look the part of a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, the next they can't keep the puck out of their net.

We saw one of the lows in Game 3 - the Oilers struggled as a team and Stuart Skinner didn't help the cause - and I expect them to bounce back in Game 4. That's a common theme we've seen with the Oilers over the past few weeks.

They dropped Game 1 and Game 3 against the Kings in the opening round and responded with wins where their offense was borderline unstoppable, posting expected goal outputs of 4.62 and 4.16.

We saw the same kind of rebounding ability earlier in this series. After getting trounced in the opener against the Golden Knights, the Oilers generated 4.66 xG in a dominant 5-1 win.

I don't know if I'd expect another blowout - now mostly healthy, this Golden Knights team is at the peak of its powers - but I do envision a much better effort from this Oilers team.

We know, at their best, they are not just a lethal power play. They're also very good at five-on-five. Playing in front of their home crowd, and desperate to avoid hitting the road down 3-1, I think we are going to see the Oilers put their best foot forward in this game.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are going to get all the ice time they can handle, and - as a team - some anger and extra motivation should help them tighten the screws defensively.

Look for a much better 60-minute effort from the Oilers.

Bet: Oilers in regulation (-120)

Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots (-120)

Matthews put up an absolute dud in Game 3. He didn't record a point for the first time during this year's playoffs, attempted only four shots, and spent most of his shifts chasing play in the defensive zone. It was bad.

I expect a much better effort from Matthews with the season on the line. Prior to Game 3, he had attempted 60 shots over six games while logging no fewer than 22 minutes in any game.

Even in tougher matchups come playoff time, Matthews is generally an ultra efficient shot generator. He can pile up the shots in bulk if the minutes are there, and ice time certainly won't be an issue with the team's season on the line.

He should get as large of a workload as he can handle, especially having benefited from an extra day of rest. Win or lose, look for Matthews to make the most of it on the shot clock.

Leon Draisaitl over 3.5 (-130)

Draisaitl is on a shooting heater. He has recorded three shots or more in each of his last 10 games, attempting at least six shots in nine straight.

He is routinely going over this number and giving himself a real chance to do so every single night.

What I love about this run is the attempt volume - even more so of late. Draisaitl has registered seven or more in five of the past six games, including all three against the Golden Knights.

That is sort of the sweet spot for Leon this season. Of the 27 games he attempted seven shots or more, he successfully hit his total 22 times. That's an 81% hit rate.

I think he can get there again in Game 4. He'll be deployed in more advantageous situations on home ice, and it is essentially a must-win game for the Oilers. They can't go down 3-1 with two of the final three games being played in Vegas.

Draisaitl has logged at least 21 minutes in six of the past seven, with Game 2's blowout victory being the lone exception. He is playing a ton and will have every opportunity to go over this number.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Oilers to take series lead

We have just one game on the docket for Monday. Thankfully, it's a high-octane matchup loaded with stars. Let's take a look at the best ways to attack it.

Golden Knights (+160) @ Oilers (-190)

The Oilers were arguably the league's best team down the stretch, going 20-4-1 over their final 25 games while posting remarkably strong numbers across the board.

They controlled better than 55% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, a top-five rate. Couple that with the league's most dangerous power play, and it was an unmatched recipe for success.

We're seeing that same recipe these playoffs, with the Oilers owning an xG share above 53% and averaging nearly two power-play markers per night.

That makes them an extremely difficult side for any team to slow. The Golden Knights looked as sound defensively as any team in the opening round but don't appear to have any sort of solution for the Oilers, especially with Laurent Brossoit starting to regress.

Brossoit has conceded at least four goals in each game thus far, stopping only 50 of 59 shots (.847 save percentage).

He managed only an .895 save percentage in the NHL last season before losing his gig for the better part of a year. He is starting to look like that guy rather than the one who posted a .927 SV% down the stretch of the regular season to earn himself the opportunity to start playoff games.

Led by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, the Oilers are loaded with high-end players who can score at an extremely healthy rate. If the opposing goaltender isn't at the top of his game, we will see goals in bunches for the Oilers.

They've netted nine through two games despite Bruce Cassidy having control of the matchups. With Jay Woodcroft now able to shelter some players and get his big guns in more advantageous offensive situations, I don't see things getting any better for the Knights.

Look for Edmonton's offense to lead the charge en route to a win inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Oilers in regulation (-115)

Evan Bouchard over 0.5 assists (-132)

Death, taxes, and Bouchard assists. The highly skilled puck-moving defenseman has registered at least one assist in seven straight playoff games, accumulating 11.

Bouchard has spent nearly 80% of his five-on-five minutes playing behind McDavid. Naturally, that leads to a lot of point-producing opportunities. So too does quarterbacking a historically good power play.

What I love about Bouchard is there are multiple paths to victory on any given night. He doesn't need a bunch of power plays to find success. Playing so much with McDavid, he has a real chance at getting the job done even if Edmonton isn't getting favorable whistles.

He isn't just a passer, either. Bouchard has attempted six shots or more in six of eight playoff games. That opens the door for deflections and rebound opportunities since - being a defenseman often shooting from range - the goaltender is very likely to make the save.

Jack Eichel over 3.5 shots (+105)

Most star offensive players generate shots at a higher clip at home than on the road. Oftentimes, the gap can be significant. Eichel is not one of those guys.

He recorded four shots or more in 53% of road games, a stark contrast from his 37% success rate in Vegas.

His road success has continued early in these playoffs. He has only played two away games thus far but totaled 11 shots on 15 attempts and did the job on both occasions.

The Oilers are vulnerable to opposing centers - they give up a lot of shots to the position - and Eichel has taken advantage, hitting in five of his last seven versus Edmonton, including the first two games of the series.

I expect Vegas will need to score to keep up. That means Eichel should get plenty of ice and be pushing to generate offense.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Maple Leafs to rebound vs. Panthers

Wednesday was a tough one on the ice. Jack Hughes and Brent Burns combined to miss the net seven times, both failing to go over their shot prop totals. The Oilers also fell at the hands of the Golden Knights despite a four-goal performance from Leon Draisaitl.

We'll aim to get back on track with three more plays for Thursday's card.

Panthers (+160) @ Maple Leafs (-190)

The Maple Leafs once again dropped their series opener at home by multiple goals.

They had no problem crawling out of the early hole against the Lightning and I expect similar against the Panthers.

Everything was there but the finish in Game 1. The Maple Leafs won the expected goals battle 5.21-2.66, good for a 66.23% share - their second-highest of the playoffs.

Their best players piled up the chances as well. The core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander combined for 20 shots on goal and 11 grade-A scoring chances. They simply couldn't convert, translating those opportunities into zero goals.

That is very abnormal for them. Each player scored 30-plus goals and scored on at least 12.2% of their shots in the regular season. They are lethal finishers.

So long as the chances are there, the goals will come, especially against a netminder like Sergei Bobrovsky.

While you have to tip your hat to him for a great Game 1 performance, he is a very exploitable goaltender. He posted a pedestrian .901 save percentage in the regular season and his playoff total matches that. There is a reason the Panthers went to unproven journeyman Alex Lyon for chunks of the opening round series; Bobrovsky is simply not reliable.

He helped steal a game, but that is an exception to the rule, and the Maple Leafs showed they can generate chances in bulk. I would expect them to start going in sooner rather than later.

Look for Toronto to even the series without the aid of overtime.

Bet: Maple Leafs in regulation (-110)

Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots (-135)

We backed Matthews in the series opener and he rewarded us with a six-shot, 11-attempt performance against the Panthers. There's no reason not to go back to the well in Game 2.

Matthews has attempted at least eight shots in five consecutive games, combining for 20 over the last two in Toronto. He is shooting every chance he gets right now and the goals have been there in bunches as a result.

Including special-teams play, Matthews was on the ice for 34 attempts and 20 shots on goal last time out. That led all forwards for either team.

It's no secret that getting him the puck in shooting situations is priority No. 1. The Panthers are a better offensive than defensive team and they tend to play high-event games. That bodes well for Matthews, who should try to shoot the Maple Leafs onto level terms.

Roope Hintz over 2.5 shots (-105)

The Kraken have mostly played well defensively through eight postseason games. Their one area of weakness is slowing down opposing centers.

They had a very tough time with Nathan MacKinnon in the opening round - granted, anybody would - and that's spilled over into their series against the Stars.

Roope Hintz had a very strong offensive showing in Game 1, registering seven shot attempts, five shots on goal, and four high-danger scoring chances. Outside of Joe Pavelski, nobody did a better job of creating quality opportunities.

Hintz has enjoyed success against the Kraken all year, recording three shots or more in three of four meetings. With only the Panthers allowing more shots per game to centers in these playoffs, Hintz should have ample opportunity to get the job done once again.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Oilers to strike first

The next wave of second-round series begins on Wednesday night. Let's take a look at a few ways to attack them with our best bets.

Oilers (-115) @ Golden Knights (-105)

The Oilers put forth an impressive first-round effort against the Kings. At five-on-five, they posted a 55% share of the expected goals and won by 0.80 goals per 60 minutes, ranking them third and second, respectively, among playoff teams.

Although the Golden Knights slot higher than the Oilers in both categories, it's important to put the numbers into context.

Edmonton played a 104-point Kings team that was three lines deep and a top-10 five-on-five side over the course of the regular season.

Vegas had a much easier path, topping a 95-point Jets squad that was missing key pieces like Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, Cole Perfetti, and Nikolaj Ehlers for chunks - if not the entirety - of the series. The Jets are top-heavy, so not having those pieces was significant. Put simply, the caliber of the opponent was nowhere close to what the Oilers dealt with.

This is a big step up in class for the Golden Knights, and I think they're going to have a much tougher time.

The Oilers gave them a world of trouble in the regular season, winning three of four meetings and scoring 18 goals over that span.

Their big guns are going to be a lot for the Golden Knights to handle - especially if captain and marquee two-way winger Mark Stone is playing at less than 100%.

It's also going to be a tall order for Laurent Brossoit. He has performed quite well of late, but just a year ago, he played his way out of the NHL with subpar goaltending.

A few good weeks aren't enough to leave me overly confident he can do the job against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and a terrifyingly good Oilers offense.

I like Edmonton to win the series and start on the right foot in Game 1.

Bet: Oilers (-115)

Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots (-115)

The Hurricanes are about the toughest matchup you can draw when it comes to generating shots. It doesn't seem to matter for Hughes. The Devils' dynamic superstar registered 20 shots over four regular-season matchups versus the Hurricanes, hitting the over in three of four.

Hughes is ultra-efficient with his ice time, and in the playoffs, he's seeing even more of it. Hughes played at least 20 minutes in five of seven opening-round games. He logged 18:33 and 19:33 in the two exceptions, both of which were four-goal games where the end result was well-established long before the game concluded.

The point is, if the game is remotely close, Hughes will play a ton. I don't have much concern about that being the case in Game 1. With so many key injuries up front, scoring goals is a challenge for the Hurricanes, even when they're outplaying the opposition.

Even if the well-rested Hurricanes control the play tonight, I don't see them being clinical enough to put the game away.

Expect Hughes to get a healthy dose of ice time and pile up the shots.

Brent Burns over 3.5 shots (-110)

Burns was a one-man shooting gallery in the first round of the playoffs. He attempted at least eight shots and hit the over in five of six games.

He was particularly effective on home ice, where he generated 16 shots on 31 attempts over three games. Insane production.

As already alluded to, the Hurricanes are missing several key weapons up front. That makes it even more imperative an offensively inclined defenseman like Burns gets involved and helps the team create shots and chances.

He certainly had no problem doing so in Round 1, even against a stingy, slower-paced team like the Islanders.

The Devils - like the Hurricanes - are generally a team to avoid targeting when it comes to shots. However, Burns' volume is so strong he's worth making an exception for.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Running with the Devils

The road teams pulled off a pair of Sunday upsets, eliminating last year's Stanley Cup champion and the most successful regular-season team of all time - in their own buildings.

Home-ice advantage hasn't been worth much in this year's playoffs. Of the seven teams to advance thus far, six secured a second-round berth on the road.

Will that trend continue Monday? Let's take a closer look by honing in on a couple of best bets for the day's lone Game 7.

Rangers (+100) @ Devils (-120)

The Devils laid eggs in the opening two games of the series. They couldn't use their speed at five-on-five and were overly focused on physical play; the result was a lot of unnecessary penalties that the Rangers quickly exploited.

Lindy Ruff pulled a couple of his penalty-prone depth pieces out of the lineup for Game 3 - most notably Miles Wood and Brendan Smith - and the Devils have looked like a completely different team since.

New Jersey controlled 53% of the expected goals in Game 3 and gave up very little defensively en route to its first win of the series. The team flexed its muscles even further in Game 4 with an expected goal share above 72%.

The Devils followed that up with another strong effort in Game 5, posting a near-60 expected goal percentage despite holding a lead for most of the game. That put them in the driver's seat for the later stages of the series.

Although the Rangers fared better in a bounce-back Game 6 win, it wasn't until the Devils started parading to the box - and gave up a goal - that New York found its footing. New Jersey dominated at five-on-five in the first period of that game, winning the high-danger chance battle 7-0.

Overall, the Devils have largely been the better team at full strength. Their inability to stay out of the box is a major reason the Rangers have three wins.

The good news for New Jersey is that the refs tend to put the whistles away in Game 7. The officials managing Sunday's contest in Colorado, for example, called but one minor penalty across 60 minutes of play.

Though that may be an extreme example, don't expect a ton of special-teams action in this matchup. Even-strength play figures to be the deciding factor, and the Devils have been the better team in that regard all series - and all season.

Look for New Jersey to control the run of play, and expect some of its star players - perhaps aided by more favorable matchups at home - to bust out of their respective shooting slumps en route to a Game 7 victory.

Bet: Devils (-120)

Timo Meier over 3.5 shots (-135)

Meier doesn't have a goal - or even a point - in this series, but it certainly isn't for lack of opportunity.

The power winger has 46 shot attempts at five-on-five through six games, ranking behind only Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead. They've been good shots, too, with Meier leading the postseason in high-danger chances.

Given his ability to create dangerous shots and the Devils' need for offense in a do-or-die game, Meier should get plenty of ice time Monday. That's especially true considering he's one of the NHL's most efficient even-strength shot generators, and special teams will likely be less prevalent in this elimination contest.

That makes five-on-five play that much more important, and no one in this series has been better than Meier when it comes to generating shots in such situations.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Friday best bets: Bruins to put away Panthers

We had our fourth consecutive winning night Thursday, backing the Golden Knights to take care of business in regulation while splitting our player props.

Let's dive into three more plays for Friday's card as we look to finish the week off on a high.

Bruins (-175) @ Panthers (+150)

The Panthers were holding their own at five-on-five earlier in the series, if not controlling the run of play entirely. That's completely changed over the past couple of games.

The Bruins have really hit their stride and looked the part of the dominant team we watched all season long. They posted a 62.83 expected goal share over Games 4 and 5, finishing above 60% in each contest.

Although they were outshot in Game 4, the Bruins were deserving of the one-sided scoreline in their favor. They were even better in Game 5, generating chance after chance but unable to get anything past Sergei Bobrovsky.

Anything can happen in one game, but I have a hard time believing Bobrovsky will follow up his stellar showing with another one. He hasn't given the Panthers competent goaltending - let alone great goaltending - with any sort of consistency since the day he signed.

The Bruins are loaded with talent and experience. They won't be the least bit phased, or thrown off, by coming up short in one close-out game.

I expect they'll come forth with another strong, disciplined performance and put this series to bed.

Look for Boston to lead late and perhaps tuck in an empty-netter to ensure a clean win within 60 minutes.

Bet: Bruins in regulation (-105)

David Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (-115)

Pastrnak hasn't enjoyed a lot of shooting success in this series. He's gone under the number in four or five contests and scored only once since the opening game.

There's reason to believe the tide is turning, though. For one, Pastrnak's shot volume is significantly rising. He attempted only eight shots over the first couple of games but has combined for 30 since, hitting double digits in two contests. And he wants more.

Speaking to the media following Game 5, Pastrnak hinted he wasn't aggressive enough and will play with more of a shooting mentality in Game 6.

Look for the Bruins' star sniper to put the puck on net every chance he gets. He should have plenty of opportunities with the way Boston has started to dominate the series.

Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 shots (-135)

The Wild have their backs up against the wall. After suffering back-to-back losses, they now find themselves on the brink of elimination.

With no margin for error, the Wild will no doubt be leaning heavily on their star players. Kaprizov should get all the ice time he can handle in more advantageous matchups than he'd get on the road.

That's been a key for Kaprizov all season long. He's averaged 4.3 shots on goal per game and has hit at a 61% clip when playing in Minnesota. He hasn't enjoyed nearly the same level of success on the road, where he has a hit rate of just 32%.

Kaprizov registered 11 attempts and four shots on goal in the last home game the Wild played. I'd expect something similar this time around.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Golden Knights to send Jets packing

Wednesday was another great night on the ice. We successfully backed a healthy road underdog - this time the Kraken in Colorado - for the third night in a row, while both player props also came through.

We'll look to stay hot with three more plays for Thursday's games.

Jets (+160) @ Golden Knights (-190)

The Jets are in deep trouble. After a surprisingly dominant series-opening performance against the Golden Knights, they're now on the brink of elimination after dropping three in a row.

But the Jets haven't only lost games. Potential Norris finalist Josh Morrissey was knocked out of the series early in Game 3, while the injured Mark Scheifele won't be available in Game 5.

To say those absences are crushing would be an understatement. At five-on-five, the Jets have controlled just 44% of the expected goal share over the past three games. The Golden Knights have really taken charge in this series, and I don't see that changing with a couple of Winnipeg's top players out of order.

Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, and the Golden Knights' lead dogs are creating a ton of offense, while the defense is giving the Jets next to nothing. Vegas ranks second in five-on-five expected goals conceded since Game 1.

Winnipeg was never going to be a team that generates a ton of chance volume. The path to victory was opportunistic finishing while getting great goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck.

It's a lot harder to convert on chances without Morrissey (second on the team in points) and Scheifele (first in goals), and Hellebuyck isn't doing enough.

Simply put, the undermanned Jets look vulnerable at both ends of the rink. Expect the Golden Knights to take care of business inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Golden Knights in regulation (-120)

Timo Meier over 3.5 shots (-115)

Meier is piling up shots against the Rangers. He's attempted 32 at five-on-five alone, which is more than all but Nathan MacKinnon (34) this postseason. However, MacKinnon has played five games, while Meier currently sits at four.

Meier's regular-season shot and chance generation rates were higher with Nico Hischier than any other player he spent meaningful time with in San Jose or New Jersey. In the last couple of games, Meier has played on the top line with Hischier from start to finish. The expectation is he'll do that once again in Game 5.

Playing on the Devils' top line in a swing game, Meier should get a healthy dose of ice time. Look for him to take his fair share of shots and go over the number for the third time in four contests.

Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots (-135)

Connor has come to play against the Golden Knights. In a series where the Jets have had problems generating offense, Connor has had little trouble doing so. He's averaged six shots on goal - and nearly 10 attempts per game - through four meetings.

Getting the puck to Connor in shooting position is priority No. 1 for the Jets. With Scheifele and Morrissey sidelined, it'll also be priority Nos. 2, 3, 4, and 5.

He's one of the league's more consistent volume shooters. In an elimination game where his team is missing multiple key offensive weapons, there's no doubt he'll play a ton of minutes and fire the puck on goal every chance he gets.

Look for Connor to go down swinging.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.