All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Wednesday best bets: Release the Kraken

It was another good night on the ice for our best bets. We once again cashed a healthy road underdog in the Islanders and split our player props, giving us a profitable evening.

We'll set our sights on another one with three more plays for Wednesday's pint-sized slate.

Kraken (+155) @ Avalanche (-180)

The Kraken have been impressive thus far. They've controlled better than 55% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five, which is the second-highest output of all playoff teams.

That stems largely from their ability to generate quality opportunities in bulk. They're averaging better than 3.0 expected goals per 60 minutes at full strength and are testing Alexandar Georgiev.

The loss of Jared McCann hurts their offense, to be sure, but the Kraken are built much more on depth than star power. They have speed and scoring ability throughout their lineup, and there are plenty of reliable contributors who can help pick up the slack.

I'm not sure the same can be said about the Avalanche. They're driven by their stars a lot more than depth, the latter of which they don't have. With Valeri Nichushkin out and Cale Makar now suspended, the Avalanche are missing two big horses at the top of the lineup. That is killer.

The Kraken are tied in this series - and have out-chanced the Avalanche - because of their depth advantage. That should shine through even further with Nichushkin and Makar out of the picture.

Although there's always the possibility of Philipp Grubauer throwing up a dud, Seattle's depth should allow the Kraken to control a lot of the play at five-on-five. Grubauer shouldn't need to excel in this game; he'll just need to be competent.

Much like with the Devils on Monday and the Islanders on Tuesday, I'm happy to take my chances on big underdogs with better underlying profiles.

Bet: Kraken (+155)

Patrice Bergeron over 2.5 shots (-140)

Bergeron is expected to make his series debut in Game 5. He'll jump right into the thick of things, centering David Pastrnak on the Bruins' top line. That certainly serves as a strong indicator that he's ready to play and will be given a full workload in this close-out game.

Assuming that's the case, it's hard not to love Bergeron in the shot prop market. He was an absolute machine at home this season, averaging 3.3 shots on goal while going over this number 73% of the time.

His shot line is often set to 3.5. Had he been healthy for the entirety of the series, that's almost certainly where the number would be for this game.

Bergeron has a strong history against the Panthers as well. He recorded four shots or more in three of four meetings this season and five of the last six dating back to last year.

Take advantage of Bergeron at a total we're unlikely to see moving forward.

Devon Toews over 0.5 assists (-115)

Makar's absence means more even-strength minutes - and the quarterbacking role on the top power play - will be on Toews' plate.

He's certainly shown the ability to take advantage of it. Makar was sidelined for an eight-game period down the stretch. In that span, Toews had a goal and nine assists while routinely playing 25-plus minutes.

That was in the regular season, too. In a playoff game where the loser gets put on the brink of elimination, head coach Jared Bednar is likely to lean even more heavily on his temporary No. 1 defenseman.

Toews is going to play extreme minutes in all situations. He's much more of a shot-creator than a shot-taker, so the likelihood of any point he tallies coming by way of an assist is quite high.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Islanders to stave off elimination

Monday night was a good one on the ice. We came out on top in two of three featured plays, including our underdog play on the Devils at +130.

We'll look to keep the momentum going with three plays for Tuesday's three-game slate.

Islanders (+135) @ Hurricanes (-155)

The Hurricanes are a better team than the Islanders and a good bet to win the series. But it's hard to get behind them at this price.

With no Max Pacioretty, Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, or - potentially - Jack Drury, this Carolina team has been decimated on the wing. There isn't much scoring pop left in the lineup.

Those absences have also taken a healthy bite out of the Hurricanes' ability to drive play. Despite trailing 3-1 in the series, the Islanders have both outchanced and outscored Carolina at five-on-five.

New York has hung in extremely well against one of the NHL's most consistently dominant even-strength teams - it just hasn't been able to slow the Hurricanes' power play.

Carolina has scored five power-play goals over four games, while the Islanders have found the back of the net just once with the man advantage (and conceded a shorthanded goal).

While the Hurricanes deserve credit for that, it seems unlikely they can rely as heavily on the power play in Game 5.

For one, the Islanders ranked ninth in power-play goals against per minute and third in shorthanded save percentage during the regular season. They're normally adept at killing penalties, and it will be shocking if Ilya Sorokin continues to let the Hurricanes score on 25% of their power-play shots.

This is an elimination game for New York. That means - rightly or wrongly - the refs are likely to tuck the whistles away as much as possible. Given the way the special-teams battle has gone for the Islanders thus far, that should work in their favor.

This should be a close and sweaty game. At +135, there's value on New York to pull it out.

Bet: Islanders (+135)

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-110)

Heiskanen is one of the best volume shooting defensemen in the NHL. He does his best work on home ice, coming through in 27 of the Stars' 41 games at American Airlines Center this season. That's an impressive 66% hit rate.

Heiskanen recorded three shots or more in each of Dallas' first two games against the Wild. He failed to do so in two outings at Minnesota's Xcel Energy Center, though the venue is notably stingy when it comes to handing out shots.

Expect Heiskanen to get back on track Tuesday night in Dallas. His volume is consistently higher at home - he averages 1.3 more attempts than he does on the road - and he should get all the ice time he can handle in this massive swing game.

If Dallas loses tonight, the Wild return home with a chance to close out the series in their own building. Expect the Stars to ride their stars in an effort to take control of this series.

Adrian Kempe over 3.5 shots (-115)

Kempe's shot volume has been remarkably good through the Kings' first four games against the Oilers. He's attempted 39 shots, tying him with Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

That volume has translated to success in the shot prop market. Kempe has hit in three of four games thus far, coming just one short last time out.

It wasn't for a lack of trying. Kempe attempted seven shots despite only getting two minutes of work on the power play; he had at least four minutes in each of the three previous games. Had one of his four misses hit the target, he'd be looking at a clean 4-0 record.

Kempe hit in each of the first two games at Edmonton's Rogers Place, recording 10 shot attempts or more in both affairs. Expect another productive effort tonight.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Friday best bets: Islanders to fight back vs. Hurricanes

Thursday night was a good one on the ice as we successfully backed the Maple Leafs to win in regulation and split our player props.

We'll aim to build on that with three more plays for Friday's slate of games.

Hurricanes (+100) @ Islanders (-120)

The Islanders have dropped the first two games of the series but it's been air tight. Both games were decided by one goal, and it's not as if the Islanders were getting cratered in the chance department. Quite the contrary.

New York has actually gotten the better of them thus far, at least at five-on-five.

Their expected goal share sits above 50% and they've generated eight more high-danger scoring opportunities than they've conceded. They're largely playing well.

The Hurricanes have simply been more clinical with their finishing and taken advantage of their chances, which has been the difference thus far.

I am skeptical that will continue. For one, the Islanders have the better goaltender in Ilya Sorokin. He is generally going to fare much better than Antti Raanta if given similar workloads.

Carolina is also losing scoring wingers like crazy. Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov were already sidelined heading into the series, and now Teuvo Teravainen is out for the foreseeable future.

Scoring is going to be a very tough task for a Hurricanes team that has been laboring offensively.

If the first two games are any indication, the Islanders should have at least a small edge at five-on-five. Throw in the better goaltender and a ruckus home crowd, and I like their chances of getting back into this series.

Bet: Islanders (-115)

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-115)

Heiskanen has been a shooting machine through the first two games of the series. He has attempted 20 shots, equalling Jason Robertson and slotting behind only Adrian Kempe, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, and Cale Makar league-wide.

The double overtime game absolutely helped prop up his totals, but Heiskanen's volume - and efficiency - would look good even had both games ended in regulation.

Heiskanen has enjoyed a ton of success against the Wild. He has hit the over in five of six meetings this year and seven of nine dating back to last season.

He has also shown the ability to consistently get the job done come playoff time, having hit in six of his past seven games. That's impressive considering he faced a high-seeded Flames team last year and is now going up against a defense-first Wild roster.

Heiskanen will play a ton of minutes so long as the games are remotely close, which should be the case with Filip Gustavsson back in goal for Minnesota.

Look for him to make the most of his ice time and get the job done once again.

Adrian Kempe over 3.5 shots (+105)

Nobody in the playoffs has registered more shot attempts than Kempe through two games. Nobody.

The Kings' star sniper has been a man possessed thus far, using his speed to find open ice and frequently generating good looks despite getting the star treatment from the Oilers.

I expect Kempe's shooting success to continue Friday night at home. With last change, the Kings can control the matchups a little more and get Kempe out in more advantageous situations.

If Kempe could generate double-digit attempts in both games in Edmonton, it stands to reason he can have another strong shooting night in Los Angeles, where his shot volume was higher all season.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Maple Leafs to respond at home

Another day, another four playoff games in the NHL. There are plenty of attractive options on the board for the slate ahead. Let's dive into a few.

Lightning (+150) @ Maple Leafs (-175)

The Maple Leafs put up an absolute dud in the opening game of the series. They were very slow out of the gate and took a needless five-minute major as soon as they started to crawl back into the game, which turned a potentially close contest into an embarrassing blowout loss.

Not everything to come from that game was bad for the team, though. The Lightning suffered some injuries along the way.

Mikey Eyssimont and Erik Cernak were ruled out for tonight's game, while Victor Hedman's status is up in the air after he left Game 1 with an injury. Even if he plays, it's safe to assume he'll be well short of 100%.

Eyssimont is a solid depth winger, but his absence isn't overly consequential. However, the losses of Cernak - and perhaps Hedman - are massive.

With Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta departing last offseason, this team isn't nearly as deep on defense as it used to be. The Lightning are already dressing and handing important minutes to guys like Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh.

A case could be made for Cernak being the team's best in-zone defender. Even if Hedman is able to go, losing Cernak makes an already top-heavy blue line even more so.

The Maple Leafs have had a couple days to chew on a disastrous Game 1 performance. They know the importance of this game and, with Tampa's injuries on defense, have a golden opportunity to even the series.

I expect Toronto to come out with a much better effort and take care of business without the help of overtime.

Bet: Maple Leafs in regulation (-110)

William Nylander over 3.5 shots (+105)

Nylander is quietly on a nice shooting run at home. He registered four shots or more in 19 of the past 30 games in Toronto - including in Game 1.

He enjoyed a lot of success against the Bolts this season. Through four games, Nylander piled up 23 shots while going over his shot total in each meeting.

Nylander attempted no fewer than seven shots in any game against the Lightning. With that kind of volume, it's no coincidence he gets the job done on such a consistent basis.

I expect the Maple Leafs to play with purpose and pile up the shots in this contest. With Cernak, and potentially Hedman, out of the lineup, the Lightning just don't have the horses defensively.

Whether the Lightning win or lose, I think they're going to spend a lot of time on their heels absorbing shots. Expect plenty of them to come off Nylander's stick.

Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots (-132)

MacKinnon is an unstoppable force at home. Dating back to last year, he recorded five shots or more in nine of 12 playoff games in which he logged 20-plus minutes.

As we saw in Game 1, the Kraken are a solid team that won't just roll over. These games are going to be competitive, meaning MacKinnon will see a lot of ice.

It doesn't much matter who the opponent is; MacKinnon is extremely efficient as a shot generator, so if the usage is there, the shots will be too.

MacKinnon attempted 11 shots and hit the target seven times in 20 minutes of ice last time out. There's no reason he can't put forth a similar stat line in a crucial game for the Avalanche.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Oilers to rebound vs. Kings

The NHL playoffs continue to roll along at full speed as we have four Game 2s scheduled for Wednesday night.

Let's dive into the best ways to attack them.

Kings (+190) @ Oilers (-220)

The Oilers dropped the series opener in disappointing fashion, but I was largely impressed with what I saw.

They controlled the run of play at five-on-five, winning the expected goal battle 3.47-1.87 and posting the higher xG in all four periods. That did translate to results, as the Oilers outscored the Kings in that game state.

Where the Oilers ran into trouble was on the penalty kill. They took way too many penalties (six, to be exact) and paid the price against the Kings' dangerous power play.

Los Angeles tied the game up in the dying seconds on the man advantage, and that's also how they won in overtime.

Connor McDavid stressed postgame the importance of staying out of the box. We also generally see a lot of penalties called early in the series and the number progressively drop as it goes on.

If we assume the Oilers will come closer to even in power-play opportunities (they were minus-3), they have a strong chance of getting back on track in Game 2.

Without Kevin Fiala and Gabriel Vilardi, the Kings don't pack the same sort of punch at evens. I don't think they have the horses to keep up with McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and this high-flying team.

Expect the Oilers to be on the front foot often in this game and for that to translate to a much-needed victory.

Bet: Oilers in regulation (-130)

David Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (-130)

Pastrnak put up a prop dud in Game 1, recording just two shots against the Panthers. I expect more from him this time around.

For one, he's arguably the NHL's best volume shooter right now. He averaged five shots per game in the regular season and had a 60% hit rate for his shot prop.

He has also hit in nine of his past 10 games in Boston, with Game 1 against Florida being the lone exception.

Getting Patrice Bergeron back (he's questionable with an illness) would be huge and allow the Bruins to reset to their regular top six.

Score effects could help the cause, too. Boston led for 55 of the 60 minutes last time out, so there was no need to push the pace and generate shots.

While the Bruins are heavily favored once again, it stands to reason they'll spend more than five minutes level. That would help raise the floor and ceiling for Pastrnak.

Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 shots (-125)

Kaprizov was teeing off in the series opener against the Stars. He generated 11 shot attempts, six shots on goal, and five scoring chances in the double-overtime victory.

While the extra frames obviously helped boost his totals, Kaprizov went over the number inside regulation.

That's nothing new for Kaprizov, especially in the playoffs. Dating back to last season, he has recorded five shots or more in six of seven playoff games. He's getting the job done and then some.

The Stars aren't as good at five-on-five without Joe Pavelski, and they took penalties at an above-average rate over the season. This is a matchup Kaprizov can excel in.

While I expect the Stars to draw even in Game 2, Kaprizov should have his fingerprints all over the Wild's offense.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: McDavid, Oilers to make noise vs. Avalanche

Headlined by a battle between two Western Conference powerhouses, we have an exciting 10-game slate Tuesday night. Let's dive into a few of the best ways to attack it.

Oilers (-115) @ Avalanche (-105)

The Oilers are the hottest team in hockey. They've posted an absurd 9-0-1 record over the past 10 games and put themselves firmly in contention for the top spot in the division (and conference) as a result.

Their numbers during this hot stretch have been nothing short of remarkable. Edmonton is controlling better than 55% of the expected goals share and 57% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five.

Dominating at even strength to such an extent makes the Oilers almost impossible to beat given the caliber of their special teams. The power play continues to fire on all cylinders - no team has netted more PP markers the past 10 games, or all season - and they own a positive goal differential while shorthanded over the same stretch.

As dangerous as the Avalanche are, I think they're getting a little too much respect in this spot. They are missing a ton of key pieces - Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, Artturi Lehkonen, Bowen Byram, etc. - while facing a star-studded team playing as well as anybody.

Call me crazy, but I have concerns about a defense that features Jack Johnson, Brad Hunt, and Kurtis MacDermid holding up against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the high-flying Oilers.

Look for arguably the league's most in-form team to grab another crucial two points.

Bet: Oilers (-115)

Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots (-130)

Hughes is enjoying a truly fantastic season in every sense of the word. The most important sense for our purposes, though, is the shot-prop market. We've frequently targeted him, and he's consistently gotten the job done. Hughes has registered at least four shots on goal in 63% of his games, including a whopping 69% on home ice.

Hughes averages seven shot attempts per game in New Jersey, which is a healthy rate to begin with. His numbers have risen even higher recently to 7.7 over his past 10 home dates.

In that span, he has gone over the number against teams like the Maple Leafs, Lightning, Wild, and Hurricanes. It doesn't much matter who the Devils are playing; Hughes simply gets the job done.

I expect that to be the case once again Tuesday night against the Sabres. They play a fast-paced, high-event brand of hockey that tends to bring out the best in offensive players. They were in action last night, so fatigue could be a factor. It's also worth noting Buffalo ranks bottom five in shots allowed to centers over the past 10.

This is a really good spot for Hughes to get involved offensively, and he should be looking to take every available chance since he's four points shy of becoming the Devils' first-ever 100-point player.

Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots (-120)

Unless he's facing top-tier shot-suppression teams like the Hurricanes and Kings, I'm always looking to back McDavid at 3.5 shots. He simply has so much of the puck and spends so much time in the offensive zone that the opportunities will always be there.

McDavid has gone over this total at a healthy 64% clip this season. If we assumed all opponents were neutral and his chances of hitting were exactly 64% each night, that would imply -178 odds, which are obviously a lot higher than we have here.

McDavid has enjoyed success against the Avalanche this season, picking up four shots and a point in each meeting. With the Oilers still fighting for home ice - and a division title - he should see a full workload and then some. Expect the league's best player to take advantage.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Sabres to keep slim playoff hopes alive

We have one of the last monster slates of the season ahead of us Thursday night, with 28 of the league's 32 teams set to take the ice.

Let's take a look at the best way to attack the games.

Sabres (-115) @ Red Wings (-105)

The Sabres are quietly heating up. They've gone 4-1-1 over the past six games, leaving the door ever so slightly open for a miracle run to the playoffs.

While the odds are still stacked against Buffalo, the team has a ceiling of 93 points. That's six clear of where the Panthers and Islanders are at, with those teams having four games remaining. If the Sabres take care of business the rest of the way, things could get very interesting.

As daunting of a task as that is, they only need to take things one step at a time, and the first step isn't a big one.

This Red Wings team is nothing more than mediocre, particularly on offense. Detroit ranks 28th in expected goals per 60 over the past 10 games at five-on-five, keeping company with clubs like the Coyotes, Canadiens, and Blackhawks.

The Red Wings struggle to generate scoring opportunities at a healthy clip. With top prospect Devon Levi likely to start for the Sabres, Detroit probably can't rely on outscoring its expected outputs. The team will need to generate plenty of volume, which is something it hasn't done all season.

I think the Sabres have a lot more firepower. They've overwhelmed the Red Wings in each and every meeting this season, piling up 18 goals and 115 shots over three games.

Detroit's goaltending has been iffy of late, with its trio of netminders combining to post a .884 save percentage. I'm not sure they'll hold up against an offense like Buffalo's.

With a more talented roster and a lot to play for, the Sabres should be able to grind out a big two points to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Bet: Sabres (-115)

Alex Ovechkin over 3.5 shots (-135)

For one reason or another, players always seem to perform better against certain teams. The Canadiens are one of them for Ovechkin.

Ovechkin has scored 10 goals over his past 10 games against Montreal. He has consistently piled up shots in bulk, recording four or more each contest.

There's every reason to believe Ovechkin's success against the Habs will continue Thursday night.

They're a poor five-on-five team and rank in the bottom 10 in shot suppression over the past 10 games. They've also taken penalties at an above-average rate during that period, which is especially beneficial to a primary power-play shooting threat like Ovechkin.

With nothing else to play for, Ovechkin will no doubt be hoping to chip away at No. 99's goal scoring record over the final few games of the season. This is as good of a spot as any for him to do so.

Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots (-135)

Robertson continues to be a priority shooting target on home ice. He's gone over his total in 24 of 38 games, good for a 63% success rate.

What I love about Robertson is we've seen no real dip in volume. His shot attempt average over the past 10 home dates (7.4) is directly in line with his outputs for the season (7.8).

I believe Robertson has a strong chance at a ceiling game against the Flyers. They give up plenty of shots at five-on-five, take a lot of penalties, and struggle most against Robertson's position; no team has conceded more shots per game to left-wingers over the past 10 contests.

Look for Robertson to capitalize on an advantageous matchup he doesn't necessarily need to find success.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Red Wings to best Canadiens

The Minnesota Wild let us down Monday night, blowing their lead with 35 seconds remaining before eventually losing in a shootout. That proved to be the difference between a winning night and a losing night with our best bets.

We'll look to get back on track with three plays for Tuesday night's big slate of games.

Red Wings (-120) @ Canadiens (+100)

The Canadiens have dropped three consecutive games, over which time they've been outscored 11-4 in aggregate. I don't see things getting much better for them Tuesday night against Detroit.

With seemingly half the roster on injured reserve, an already poor Canadiens lineup is paper-thin top to bottom. It's gotten to the point where Montreal's top six is littered with mid-tier prospects and journeymen forwards, such as Jesse Ylonen and Alex Belzile.

While that's the optimal path to take for a team in the basement, it's not an ideal way to get results.

That certainly shows in the numbers, as the Canadiens have controlled only 38% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five the past 10 games. They're getting caved in on a nightly basis.

For teams with poor underlying metrics, the path to victory generally comes from high-end finishing or goaltending. The Canadiens have neither.

They don't have the shooting talent to outperform their expected outputs, and Cayden Primeau is more likely to harm than help between the pipes. He owns a .876 save percentage through 20 NHL appearances and simply hasn't looked good at this level.

For all the Red Wings' faults, they have a lot of edges in this game. Detroit possesses more talent up front, it's more compact defensively, and Ville Husso - despite an up-and-down season - is the much better goaltender.

Look for the Red Wings to take two points in Montreal.

Bet: Red Wings (-120)

Sebastian Aho over 2.5 shots (-125)

Aho is quietly having a nice season shooting the puck. He's registered three shots or more in 41 of his 69 games, which equates to a 59% success rate.

Aho has been especially good at home, where he's gone over his total in 20 of the past 30 for a 67% hit rate.

There's every reason to believe the home cooking will continue Tuesday night against Ottawa.

The Senators have really struggled to limit shots of late, which makes sense given the absences of top defensemen Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun.

A lot of the volume has come from opposing centers. In fact, the Senators rank 25th in shots allowed per game to centers over the last 10. Aho should be the primary beneficiary.

Carter Verhaeghe over 3.5 shots (-130)

Death, taxes, and Verhaeghe at home. He's an absolute machine in his own building, where he's gone over his shot total in eight of the past 10 contests and 67% of his games for the season.

The volume continues to be mouthwatering from Verhaeghe on a nightly basis. He's averaged a whopping 8.2 shot attempts over his last 10 games overall, which is more than all but Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, and Mikko Rantanen. He's the No. 1 shooting threat on a Panthers team that piles up the shots every time out.

The Sabres give up plenty of attempts and tend to play in high-event games. That should only raise Verhaeghe's already high floor, and ceiling, in terms of generating shots.

It's also worth noting the Sabres rank in the bottom 10 in shots against versus left-wingers over the past 10.

Verhaeghe registered seven shots on nine attempts the last time these two teams met. He's well-positioned for another big night this time around.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Let’s get Wild

We have a very small slate of games on the docket Monday night, with a battle between two of the top seeds in the Western Conference set to take center stage.

Let's take a look at the best way to attack that game - and the card as a whole - with three bets.

Golden Knights (+115) @ Wild (-135)

The Golden Knights - in their current, injured form - are not as good as their record indicates, especially on the road.

They've controlled only 44% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over the past 10 road games, which is one of the worst outputs in the NHL. Their poor numbers stem largely from a surprising inability to defend. They're giving up a lot of chances.

A recent injury to Shea Theodore isn't going to help improve their process, although his absence hurts more on the offensive side of things.

That's not ideal when going up against the Wild. They've defended masterfully for the vast majority of the campaign. That remains the case right now, particularly at home.

Over its last 10 home affairs, Minnesota has allowed only 8.6 high-danger chances per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. That's the league's second-best rate, behind only the No. 1-seeded Boston Bruins.

Generating legitimate scoring opportunities has been almost impossible for opposing teams. When they do, they then have to deal with Filip Gustavsson.

He ranks fourth in goals saved above expected per start, slotting behind only the tandem in Boston and Juuse Saros. Gustavsson has been a brick wall and should have little problem slowing down this banged-up Golden Knights attack.

Minnesota's defensive prowess should give the team an edge at five-on-five, and it also has a much more reliable netminder. Throw home ice in as a cherry on top, and there's plenty of reason to expect the Wild to take care of business.

Bet: Wild (-135)

Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots (-135)

Robertson is one of the NHL's most consistent shooters at home. He's registered four-plus shots in 62% of his home games this season, including the only one against the Predators.

His shot volume in Dallas is night and day to what it is on the road. Robertson has managed 7.9 shot attempts per home game. That number drops to an even six when on the road.

However, what I truly love about Robertson on Monday is the matchup. His bread-and-butter is shooting on the man advantage, where he ranks fifth in total attempts.

The Predators are one of the best opponents Robertson could ask for. They take a boatload of penalties, having spent more time shorthanded than all but the Coyotes and Bruins over the past 10 games.

Slowing down Robertson is difficult enough. If the Predators parade to the box like usual, it's borderline impossible. Expect Robertson to have a big shooting night.

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-145)

Heiskanen's splits are as drastic as you'll see in any defenseman. He's good on the road, sporting a solid 52% hit rate. He's an absolute machine at home, though, having gone over his total in 71% of the games.

Heiskanen is in his finest form right now. He's hit in eight of the past 10 games in Dallas, including six of the last seven. The lone exception came against a Flames team that suppresses shots as effectively as anybody - outside of the Hurricanes, anyway.

The Predators are winning a lot of games right now, but it's mostly been on the back of Saros. At five-on-five, they rank in the bottom 10 in shot suppression the past 10 games. As mentioned, they're also taking a ton of penalties.

Whether Saros steals the show or not doesn't negatively impact Dallas' ability to pile up the shots. I expect the team's two best volume shooters - Robertson and Heiskanen - to be heavily involved.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Friday best bets: Going under in Winnipeg

We had a solid night on the ice Thursday, going 2-1 with our sides and props. We'll look to keep moving in the right direction with three more plays for the night ahead.

Red Wings (+210) @ Jets (-250)

Jets games are where offense goes to die. They don't score, their opponents don't score, and it feels like every game they're involved in is a grind from start to finish.

Forget a total of 6, let alone 6.5; their games have featured five goals or fewer seven times in a row. Seven! While that streak won't last forever, I love the wiggle room that 6.5 provides in this matchup.

As mentioned, the Jets are struggling to score. They're doing a great job of preventing goals, though: At five-on-five, they rank second in the NHL in expected goals against over the past 10 games. They're giving up next to nothing.

When teams finally do break through, they have the privilege of dealing with Connor Hellebuyck. He owns a .917 save percentage (league average is .899) and ranks sixth in goals saved above expected. He has largely played very well all season. The Red Wings are likely to have a difficult time getting pucks by him.

Creating any sort of chance volume against this slow-paced, grind-it-out Jets team is a hard task for anybody, but it should be especially difficult for the Red Wings. At five-on-five, they slot 28th in expected goals generation over the past 10 games. They grade out even worse in terms of actual goals, ranking ahead of only the Blackhawks. I don't see Detroit being the team that forces the Jets into a high-event game.

In terms of expected goals pace - combining generation and prevention numbers - both teams rank bottom five over the past 10. There shouldn't be fireworks in this one.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-135)

Mika Zibanejad over 2.5 shots (-132)

Zibanejad has gone cold shooting the puck. He has recorded three shots or more just four times over the past 10 games while posting some underwhelming attempt numbers. That doesn't bother me at all.

If you dig deeper, you'll notice Zibanejad's recent string of opponents has been extremely challenging. He's faced the Penguins (three times), Hurricanes (twice), and Devils during this rough patch, and each of those teams is very good at limiting shots.

When the Rangers have faced lesser teams or higher-event teams, like the Capitals, Panthers, Predators and Blue Jackets, Zibanejad has gotten the job done.

A date with the Sabres is a definite step in the right direction. They're prone to playing high-event hockey and they've allowed the seventh-most shots by centers over the past 10 games.

It's also worth noting - even given his recent struggles - Zibanejad has registered three shots or more in 63% of his games this season.

Expect him to get back on track in a softer matchup than he's grown accustomed to seeing of late.

Roope Hintz over 2.5 shots (-125)

Hintz remains somebody we like to target on the road. His success rate is 12% higher in that situation and the numbers suggest it's no coincidence.

The Stars forward's attempt outputs are also noticeably higher away from home, where his sole mission is facilitating as many Jason Robertson shots as possible.

Tonight he finds himself in a mouth-watering spot against a Coyotes team that bleeds shots to centers. The only side that has conceded more shots to the position over the last 10 is the Blackhawks. They just allowed five shots on goal to Hintz, who rung them up for seven just a couple weeks prior.

He has shown the ability to generate more volume on the road and has consistently hit in advantageous matchups. Expect that trend to continue in Arizona.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.