All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Thursday best bets: Running with the Devils

We have a juicy 11-game slate ahead of us on a busy Thursday night in the NHL. Let's take a closer look at a few of my favorite plays on the board.

Rangers (+115) @ Devils (-135)

The Devils are playing top-tier hockey at five-on-five right now. They've controlled well above 58% of the high-danger chances over the past 10 games, which slots them third in the NHL.

Only the Kings and Penguins - who routinely need to out chance opponents to compensate for horrendous goaltending - have fared better in that regard.

With a stacked top six featuring Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Jesper Bratt, New Jersey will be awfully dangerous when getting the bulk of the chances.

That should prove to be the case again Thursday. The Rangers are a very good finishing team that can consistently make the most of the opportunities they get. However, they're not great at carving out an even share against an average opponent, so I imagine a team like the Devils could have a greater edge.

We've certainly seen that this season. Through three head-to-head meetings, New Jersey has won the chance battle by a whopping 28 at five-on-five. Even with Igor Shesterkin between the pipes, that's bound to be problematic.

The Devils won two of the three games against the Rangers thus far, causing New York a world of problems with their speed. New Jersey's recent acquisition of Meier only adds to it, not to mention the power and finishing ability he also brings to the table.

I expect New Jersey's dynamic group of forwards and relentless attacking style to give the Rangers all kinds of problems in this spot, especially if underrated defenseman Ryan Lindgren remains out of the lineup.

Back the Devils to return to the win column in what should be an exciting and emotional game.

Bet: Devils (-135)

Martin Necas over 2.5 shots (-120)

Necas is an absolute machine on the road. Even without Andrei Svechnikov in the lineup and the additional opportunity that comes with his absence, we haven't seen any change in Necas' success at home. He remains underwhelming in Carolina (42% hit rate) and a monster away from his own rink (71% hit rate).

He's gone over this number in seven of his past 10 road dates, including against the Stars, Golden Knights, and Rangers. Those three teams are a lot better than the Red Wings, but they play similarly slow styles. That Necas excelled against them bodes well for his chances of success in this spot.

Necas' volume continues to be rock solid for a 2.5 line, as he averaged 6.3 shot attempts over the past 10 road games. That's a drastic difference from the 3.8 attempts he's put up per night in Carolina.

Expect an active offensive night from Necas in Detroit.

Jason Zucker over 2.5 shots (-140)

Volume is king in the shot prop world, and Zucker has it in spades right now. He's registered three shots or more in nine of his past 10 contests, averaging a whopping 6.6 attempts per game. That's a huge step up from the rate we've previously seen from him this season (4.5).

The Penguins have found a way to tilt the ice further in their favor and generate an unmatched amount of shots over the past 10 contests. Clearly, Zucker has been the prime beneficiary.

Although Zucker doesn't see much power-play time, the five-on-five matchup is very juicy, and that's what matters most to his shooting ceiling. At full strength, the Predators rank 25th in shots against per 60 minutes over the past 10 games. I don't love Nashville's chances of slowing down the best shot-generating team in the league over that period.

Look for Zucker to take advantage.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Oilers to outduel Knights

We have a jam-packed night of games ahead of us, headlined by a clash between two of the Western Conference's best teams.

Let's take a closer look at the best way to attack that game - and the slate - with a pair of bets.

Oilers (-125) @ Golden Knights (+105)

Save for a healthy version of the Avalanche, I think the Oilers - with Stuart Skinner in goal - are as good as any team in the Western Conference.

The Oilers have controlled just under 55% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five over the past 10 games. They're playing very well at full strength.

Edmonton's power play is as good as anybody's and the Oilers lead the league in shorties. Thus, they'll win a ton of games when playing anywhere close to this level at five-on-five. That's what we're seeing right now, as they're 8-1-1 over the past 10 games.

Although I don't think the Golden Knights are as bad as their recent underlying metrics suggest, those numbers are certainly concerning. Vegas has controlled just over 43% of the high-danger chances over the past 10, which sandwiches it between the Canadiens and Blue Jackets. Not where you want to be.

The Golden Knights' poor numbers stem mostly from a surprising inability to defend. Across all situations, only the Blue Jackets, Ducks, Sharks, and Senators have conceded more high-danger chances over the last 10.

Even in a back-to-back situation, the Oilers are perhaps the last team you'd want to see when you're bleeding chances. That concern is only exacerbated when you're rotating through a handful of underwhelming netminders.

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Co. don't need many opportunities in order to make you pay. With the way the Golden Knights are defending right now, they should get plenty.

The Oilers are fighting for home ice and, with a little luck, perhaps even a division title. Those hopes go out the window if they don't beat the Golden Knights tonight, and they surely know that. I expect Edmonton to come out and make a statement that it's every bit as good - if not better - than the Western Conference-leading Golden Knights.

Bet: Oilers (-125)

Canucks (-110) @ Blues (-110)

The Canucks are playing very good hockey. Great hockey, even. They have won three in a row and eight of 10, and they're full value for it.

Including all game states, the Canucks rank top five in expected goals and high-danger chance share. They're keeping company with playoff-bound teams like the Kings, Devils, and Penguins in that span.

Unsurprisingly, their ability to dominate the run of play is leading to success on the scoreboard. Vancouver has bested opponents 36-21 in aggregate over the past 10 games. Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, and Co. are making magic happen nightly while, aided by the return of Thatcher Demko, the goaltending has been very good.

Rick Tocchet has the Canucks playing legitimately well at both ends of the ice. While a somewhat soft schedule has perhaps aided their numbers, that's not really the card to play when they're going up against the Blues.

The Blues have lost the expected goals battle at five-on-five in 10 straight games. That's unfathomably bad considering they've faced the Ducks, Red Wings (twice), Blue Jackets, and Sharks in that time.

They are getting outplayed each and every night and Jordan Binnington (minus-12.7 goals saved above expected) is not going to mask their problems.

While a Demko start would be ideal, I see an edge on the Canucks regardless of who's between the pipes. Don't expect them to cool off in St. Louis.

Bet: Canucks (-110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday player props: Hintz to feast in Chicago

Our shot props stayed hot on Monday night, as two of three came through for us. Naturally, it was superstar Leon Draisaitl - in a dream spot against the Coyotes - that failed to get the job done.

We'll look to build on Monday's success with three more props for Tuesday night's big slate. Let's dig in.

Roope Hintz over 2.5 shots (-110)

Hintz is quietly on a nice little shooting run away from home. He has hit in 60% of his last 20 road dates, including seven of the past 10. The volume discrepancy we've seen from Hintz on the road compared to at home has been noticeable all season long, and it's only growing.

We'll use recent 10-game increments for perspective. Hintz has averaged 3.7 shot attempts over his last 10 in Dallas. That's not exactly an ideal volume for someone you need three shots on target from to have success.

Luckily, his road volume is much higher. Hintz has averaged 5.5 over his past 10 away from home. Significantly better.

Perhaps even more important than his road splits, which are much better, is the matchup against the Blackhawks. They rank dead last in shots allowed per game to centers over the last 10.

Hintz took full advantage when he faced Chicago a couple of weeks ago, piling up seven shots on a whopping 12 attempts.

Although I don't expect Hintz to replicate those numbers, he's very much worth backing on the road in a mouth-watering matchup.

Shea Theodore over 2.5 shots (-105)

Opposing defensemen have been the Oilers' Achilles' heel all year long. Although their numbers are a tad better of late, the Oilers rank 28th in shots allowed per game to defenders. Enter Theodore.

The gifted Golden Knights blue-liner has been the team's best shot generator of late - particularly on home soil. Theodore has generated 64 attempts over the past 10 games in Vegas, which puts him 15 clear of the next-closest Golden Knight, Jack Eichel.

A nice little bonus for Theodore is that the Oilers take a lot of penalties. Only five teams have spent more time shorthanded than Edmonton this season.

With Theodore quarterbacking the top power play and taking his fair share of shots on the man advantage, he should have an extra couple of opportunities that could well be the difference in going over the number.

Win or lose, I expect Theodore to be heavily involved in Vegas' attack.

Viktor Arvidsson over 0.5 points (-120)

Arvidsson is as hot as any shooter in the NHL, having gone over his total (3.5) in eight of the past 10 games while falling just one puck short in each exception.

It just so happens one of those losses came against tonight's opponent: the Flames.

Rather than back Arvidsson to hit against one of the league's best shot-suppression sides, we're going to take a different route with Arvidsson: the point market.

All of his shooting - and the Kings' ability to control play when he's on the ice - is leading to production. Arvidsson has put up 12 points over the past 10 games, tied for tops on L.A.

Arvidsson has a strong history against the Flames as well. He has registered at least a point in five of his last six against Calgary, totaling seven points in that span.

With the Adrian Kempe line likely to draw Calgary's top players at even strength, Arvidsson should get an easier matchup at five-on-five. He also skates on the top power play, giving him exposure to all of the team's top players with extra time and space to work with.

Jacob Markstrom hasn't exactly been great this season. Give me the hot hand to find the scoresheet at least once at a very reasonable price.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Panthers to show their claws in Ottawa

We have an unusually busy six-game slate to look forward to Monday night. Let's look at the best way to attack it with a pair of best bets.

Panthers (-135) @ Senators (+115)

The bottom is falling out from beneath the Senators. As the schedule has toughened up, they've shown their true colors and dropped out of the playoff race.

They've played eight consecutive games against teams that are either holding down a playoff spot or sitting just outside the picture. Six of those eight games resulted in defeat, with one of the wins coming via a Dylan Ferguson goalie steal on a night they were outshot by 28. Not good!

Ottawa ranks last in attempts, expected goals, and high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes during this eight-game stretch. The Senators are playing truly horrific hockey.

Without any of their top goaltenders available, the Senators can't rely on netminding to help mask these issues. The loss of Jakob Chychrun on defense doesn't help matters either.

I expect the Senators' struggles to continue Monday night against the Panthers, who are playing some of their best hockey of the year, outshooting teams by double digits (on average) over the past 10 games.

With a playoff spot just three points away and the schedule about to get easier, the Panthers know it's now or never. Florida has to start stringing together wins, and a date with this version of the Senators is a good place to start.

Ottawa is bleeding shots and lacks stable goaltending. That's not a recipe for success against a high-powered Panthers side that generates shots, and scoring chances, as efficiently as any team in the league.

Led by Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe, look for Florida's offense to overwhelm the Senators en route to a crucial two points.

Bet: Panthers (-135)

Kraken (+110) @ Wild (-130)

This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. The last time these two sides met, the Wild closed as -120 favorites. Although that game was played in Seattle, Kirill Kaprizov happened to be available.

Call me crazy, but if the Wild are priced as -120 favorites with Kaprizov, I don't think they should be -130 without him. Home ice isn't worth that much, especially against this Kraken team.

The Kraken have enjoyed great success on the road all season long and are 6-0-1 away from home in March, having picked up wins against the Avalanche and the Stars. I don't think they should be priced so generously against a Wild team missing its best skater by far.

Seattle also deserves more credit in its own right. The Kraken have posted a 56% expected goals share at five-on-five over the past 10 games, which is one of the highest outputs in the NHL. For comparison, the Wild are a little below 50% during the same span and rank 18th.

While Minnesota does possess an edge between the pipes, the Kraken have played better at five-on-five of late and the Wild are bleeding goals on the penalty kill.

The Kraken have a path to a solid offensive night, which could put a low-scoring Wild team that's missing its top producer in a tough spot.

Bet: Kraken (+110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday player props: Draisaitl on the prowl

Many of the league's best shot generators are set to take the ice Monday night. Let's take a look at three worth backing.

Carter Verhaeghe over 3.5 shots (-140)

Verhaeghe is firing the puck from anywhere and everywhere. He has amassed 45 shots on goal and 79 attempts over the last 10 games. Those totals are good for first on a Panthers team that generates an insane amount of shot volume almost every single night. The bar to clear is high, and Verhaeghe's doing it.

Unsurprisingly, all that volume is leading to consistent success in the prop market. Verhaeghe has recorded four shots or more in nine of his last 10, including against playoff bound sides like the Golden Knights, Devils, Maple Leafs, and Rangers.

He begins his week with a sneaky good matchup against the Senators. Their underlying numbers were fairly strong for quite some time. They have dipped of late, though, with some key players - like Jakob Chychrun - out due to injury while the schedule toughens.

Only three teams have allowed shots at a higher rate than the Senators over the last 10 games. They're vulnerable and the Panthers are at, or near, the top of the list of sides most likely to exploit that.

Look for Verhaeghe, the team's leading trigger man of late, to be front and center for the Panthers.

Leon Draisaitl over 3.5 shots (+115)

Draisaitl has quietly gone on a healthy shooting run. He leads the Oilers in shots on goal and attempts over the last 10 games, which is saying something considering Connor McDavid has at times seen his shot total at 4.5 in recent weeks.

He is skating regularly with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at five-on-five, both of whom are happy to defer to Leon and bring out the ceiling in terms of his shot volume.

What I love even more about Draisaitl tonight is the matchup. The Coyotes bleed shots across all situations, give up a ton of volume to opposing centers, and take an awful lot of penalties.

Draisaitl is the go-to shooter on the man advantage, so he stands to benefit most from Arizona's inability to stay out of the box.

Expect him to be heavily involved in the offense.

Mikko Rantanen over 3.5 shots (-120)

David Pastrnak. Auston Matthews. Nathan MacKinnon. Those are the only three players in the league with more shot attempts than Rantanen over the past 10 games.

Colorado's soon-to-be 50-goal man has been piling up the shots of late against anyone and everyone. I don't see him slowing down Monday night against the Ducks.

They continue to struggle defensively, having allowed an average of nearly 36.5 shots against the past 10 games. That's the most in the NHL.

A ton of that volume has come from right wingers. Only the Predators have allowed more shots per game to Rantanen's position during this stretch.

Dating back to the beginning of last season, Rantanen has gone over his total in four consecutive games against this Ducks team.

Given how much volume they're allowing on a nightly basis - including to right wingers - I see no reason to expect anything different this time around.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Red Wings to best Blues

We have a fun 12-game slate ahead of us on Thursday night. Naturally, I see the most value in two of the least enticing matchups. Let's dig in.

Blues (+110) @ Red Wings (-130)

Although their recent record (5-4-1) might not suggest as much, the Blues are playing some truly terrible hockey right now.

They've lost the expected goal - aka weighted shots - battle in eight of the last 10 games and seven in a row. That would perhaps be justifiable if their schedule was difficult, but it hasn't been.

During this stretch, the Blues have faced off against the Red Wings, Sharks (twice), Coyotes, Blue Jackets, and a Capitals team that saw their GM pull the plug on the season at the deadline. If the Blues can't hang at five-on-five with those teams, there's real cause for concern.

I don't have a long list of great things about the Red Wings, but there are a couple. For all their faults, they've defended very well of late. Only five teams have done a better job at suppressing expected goals since the deadline.

They've fared especially well against bad teams, allowing next to nothing at five-on-five to the Blues (1.52 xG), Predators (0.79 xG), and Blackhawks (0.73 xG).

Beyond three or four forwards at the top of the roster, the Blues are paper-thin up front. If they couldn't muster up much against Detroit while controlling matchups at home, I don't see a reason to expect any different on the road.

The Red Wings have played decent hockey in Detroit this calendar year, owning a .500 record at home.

Look for them to take care of business against a Blues side that has won just six times and posted a 41 xGF% away from home in 2023.

Bet: Red Wings (-130)

Kraken (-125) @ Predators (+105)

Death, taxes, and targeting the Predators. I've gone at them a handful of times since the trade deadline, and I'm going back to the well tonight with the Kraken.

Yes, the Predators have done a good job of staying afloat after depleting their roster at the beginning of the month. That being said, their recent wins have come against the Blackhawks, Kings (in a shootout), Ducks, Red Wings, and a Sabres team that's conceded what feels like 500 goals this month.

The Preds scored one goal at home to Chicago. They generated 20 shots at home to the Jets. They generated 22 shots and lost by seven to the Rangers. There isn't a whole lot to be impressed with.

If they're struggling to create against the Blackhawks and Jets (in their current form), I certainly don't have faith in their ability to facilitate offense against the Kraken.

Although there's always the possibility an egg is laid in goal for Seattle, that's about the only way the Preds are going to score against them. The Kraken are very stout defensively and give opponents next to no room to breathe.

They've conceded just 26 shots on goal per game over the last 10, ranking third in the league. The Kraken also sit near the top in terms of suppressing expected goals and chances.

It'll be very difficult for this watered-down Predators lineup to create opportunities with any sort of regularity. If Seattle's goaltending is remotely decent, it should be able to pick up two big points.

Bet: Kraken (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday player props: McCann to stay hot in Nashville

We have 12 games to look forward to on Thursday's meaty slate. Let's look at three props that stand out from the pack as we seek to build on our 6-0 start to the week.

Ryan Hartman over 2.5 shots (-132)

Similar to Martin Necas, Hartman is a much more efficient shot generator away from home. He has gone over his total in 17 of his 27 road affairs (63%), compared to just eight of 22 at home (36%).

There's every reason to expect Hartman's road success to continue against the Flyers. For one, he's playing a much larger role with Kirill Kaprizov out of the lineup. Hartman is skating on the top power-play unit and routinely sees 19-plus minutes of ice time.

That extra opportunity has led to more shots. Hartman's gone over in four of six games sans Kaprizov while recording more shots than all Wild forwards except Matt Boldy.

Lastly, the positional matchup is very enticing. The Flyers rank 29th in shots against per game versus centers over the last 10.

Jared McCann over 3.5 shots (+135)

McCann has seen his total bump from 2.5 to 3.5, and for good reason. The Kraken's top sniper has recorded four shots or more in seven of the past 10 games, falling one shot shy in two of the three occasions he failed to go over the number.

The uptick in shots we have seen from McCann is no coincidence. He's averaged nearly 19 minutes per night during this stretch, which is well above the 16 he's averaged over the course of the season.

Those extra shifts have been put to good use: McCann has averaged 7.4 attempts over the past 10 games, well above his season output of 4.8 per night.

McCann is playing more minutes, shooting the puck more frequently, and garnering extremely strong results; he's scored seven times in this span.

With the Kraken in the thick of a heated playoff race, I see no reason why they'll ease off the gas and get away from what's working so well for McCann.

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-145)

Heiskanen is a monster on home soil. He's registered three shots on goal or more in 70% of his games in Dallas this season, a remarkably impressive rate.

The numbers beneath the hood are much better in Dallas, as you'd expect. He's averaged 5.2 shot attempts on the road this season and 6.8 at home. That's a sizeable gap.

What I love about Heiskanen is he continues to improve upon an already strong process in Dallas. His numbers have increased of late, with Heiskanen registering a team-best 76 attempts over his last 10 in Dallas.

Yes, he's even ahead of Jason Robertson - one of the best volume-shooting wingers in the NHL who's gone over his shot total (3.5, by the way) in 66% of his home affairs.

Heiskanen should be able to stay hot in a sneaky-good matchup Thursday night. The Penguins rank bottom-five in shots against per game versus defensemen and are in the latter half of a road back-to-back, having played at altitude in Colorado.

Expect Heiskanen's home cooking to continue.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Tuesday best bets: Sabres to rebound vs. slumping Predators

We have a jam-packed Tuesday card to look forward to, as 26 of the league's 32 teams are set to be in action.

Let's take a closer look at a couple that stand out.

Predators (+130) @ Sabres (-150)

For a while, I've argued the Predators haven't played nearly as well as the results have indicated. That's finally starting to catch up to them.

They've dropped three consecutive games, over which time they scored only three goals while conceding 12.

They're getting significantly outplayed at five-on-five almost every night. That's a recipe for disaster when you're lacking high-end talent and what you do have - Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, etc. - is sitting on the sidelines.

I don't expect things to improve for the Predators in Buffalo on Tuesday night. The Sabres have been one of the league's most prolific offenses at home this season, netting an average of 3.5 goals per game.

With Josi injured and Mattias Ekholm traded, the Predators lack the defensive personnel needed to slow their attack. They don't have the horses offensively to keep up, either, as we've seen during this dreadful losing skid.

The Sabres should dominate the run of play in this game. Assuming that's the case, their big edge in chances - and true talent - should shine through over 60 minutes, even against Juuse Saros.

Bet: Sabres in regulation (+105)

Maple Leafs (-125) @ Islanders (+105)

The Maple Leafs have been a little hit-and-miss since the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Islanders have won five of seven and are playing some of their best hockey of the season. Even so, I can't wrap my head around this price.

These two teams met back in late January, with tonight's projected starters (Ilya Samsonov and Ilya Sorokin) also between the pipes that game. The Maple Leafs closed as -240 favorites and won by three goals.

I understand Toronto had home ice for that game, and the Islanders didn't have Bo Horvat on their roster. That's not worth a 15% swing in win probability, which is what we're seeing right now.

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares are all healthy and playing. So, too, is Samsonov, who ranks third in the NHL in save percentage against Grade A chances since the last time the two sides met. There's no reason for such a drastic difference in price.

Could the Islanders go out there and win? Absolutely! But their recent wins, and improved metrics, likely have more to do with them facing teams like the Sharks, Ducks, and Red Wings as opposed to some new leaf - no pun intended - being turned and serving as the solution to all their problems.

This team is still inconsistent offensively, Mathew Barzal isn't in the lineup, and the Maple Leafs are a big jump in class relative to what the Islanders have faced lately.

Growing pains with new personnel or not, I'm happy to back the Maple Leafs against a fringe playoff team at such a reasonable price.

Bet: Maple Leafs (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday player props: Hughes to fire at home

We kicked off the week in strong fashion with a perfect 3-0 night of shot props.

We'll try and replicate that effort with three more plays for a busy Tuesday night on the ice.

Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots (-132)

Hughes is one of the NHL's most consistent volume shooters. He's gone over his total at a 64% clip this season, including a remarkable 71% on home ice.

Hughes has hit a new gear with his shot generation of late, especially when playing in New Jersey. He's registered four-plus shots in nine of the last 10 games, averaging an impressive 7.7 attempts in that span.

Tuesday, Hughes finds himself in a sneaky good matchup against a Wild team that's allowing shots at a high clip. Minnesota ranks 28th in five-on-five shots allowed since the trade deadline and is bleeding them to centers in particular.

Only the Coyotes, Blackhawks, and Golden Knights have allowed more shots per game to the position over the past 10. Expect Hughes to capitalize.

Martin Necas over 2.5 shots (-132)

Necas has some of the most insane home/road splits you'll find. Unlike most offensive players, he's much more productive on the road. His success rate away from Carolina (71%) is actually 24% higher than his home output (47%).

I like his chances of getting the job done once again versus the Rangers. They're giving up a lot of rubber right now, especially to wingers.

New York ranks in the bottom five in shots against per game versus lefties and righties over the past 10.

With Andrei Svechnikov out of the lineup, Necas should carry more of the workload offensively. He'll skate on the top line alongside Sebastian Aho, as well as on the top power play.

Given New York's struggles preventing shots, Necas' road success, and the increased usage, our favorite road warrior will have every opportunity to get the job done once again.

David Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (-110)

Pastrnak is a certified Senators killer. He's recorded at least five shots in five of six meetings since the beginning of the 2021-22 campaign, falling one shy in the lone exception.

But Pastrnak hasn't just squeaked out shot victories against Ottawa. He's absolutely shredded them, averaging nearly 11 attempts per game over those six matchups.

For a perspective on how insane that volume is, Pastrnak leads the NHL in attempts this season by a whopping 62, and his per-game average is 8.7. That's been enough for him to hit five or more at an impressive 57% clip. You can imagine how strong his rate is when flirting with 11.

There's every reason to believe Pastrnak could put up another big number against the Senators this time around. They're susceptible to giving up shots in bulk, and even more so on the road.

Look for Pastrnak to pile up the shots against an exploitable, and fatigued, Senators team.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Avalanche to start fast vs. Blackhawks

We begin the week with 10 teams in action. Among that group are two of the bottom-three seeds in the NHL. Let's take a look at the best ways to attack them.

Sharks (+270) @ Oilers (-340)

Things are going from bad to worse for the Sharks. They've been an unmitigated disaster since the trade deadline, winning just once in eight tries.

In that span, they've scored 17 goals and conceded 37, posting a league-worst minus-20 goal differential.

They're severely lacking scoring punch without Timo Meier, and they're getting crushed defensively.

Only two teams have conceded expected goals at a higher rate across all situations. Given the level of goaltending they've gotten from James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen, it's no surprise so many chances against are leading to goal after goal.

I don't think the bleeding is going to stop against the Oilers. They're 6-2-0 since deadline day and have generated expected goals at a top-five clip league-wide.

With Evander Kane healthy again and newcomer Mattias Ekholm making the team more stable defensively, an already strong Oilers side is as deep and talented as its been at any point this season.

The Oilers have averaged nearly 4.70 goals per game over the past couple of weeks, which ranks them second in the NHL.

They're scoring at will, and I don't see any reason why that'll change against a Sharks team in its worst form of the campaign.

Look for the Oilers to make easy work of the Sharks on home soil.

Bet: Oilers -1.5 (-145)

Blackhawks (+380) @ Avalanche (-500)

The Blackhawks have picked up seven points over eight games since the trade deadline but don't let that fool you; they aren't playing well.

Whether you look at shot, chance, or expected goal differentials, they're laboring across the board - just as they have all season.

The reason they've found some success of late: unsustainably high percentages. The Blackhawks are among the league leaders in shooting percentage and save percentage over the past couple of weeks.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know a team with their talent - or lack thereof - isn't going to keep company with the likes of the Bruins and Rangers over the long haul. It makes sense for those teams to shoot the lights out and/or get great goaltending. The same can't be said of the Blackhawks.

I think they're due to hit a wall sooner rather than later, and a road date against the Avalanche is the perfect time for that regression to kick in.

The Avs are 6-2-1 since deadline day and are full value for their record, having controlled better than 57% of the expected goal share.

They're dominating their opponents and generally starting fast, as has been the case all season. Despite all the injuries faced, the Avs are top 10 in first-period goals for and top five in first-period goals against.

Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are 31st in opening-period goals for and 29th in goals conceded. They struggle mightily at both ends of the ice.

Expect their slow starts to continue at altitude against a significantly better opponent.

Bet: Avalanche first period -0.5 (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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