With every game that passes, Artemi Panarin continues to prove his worth to the Chicago Blackhawks. The problem is, some serious work will need to be done to fit the soon-to-be restricted free agent under the salary cap.
Here are some things to consider ahead of his next contract:
The Bread Man giveth
With an assist in Tuesday's loss to Winnipeg, Panarin extended his point streak to eight games, boosting his exceptional career numbers to date.
Since joining the Blackhawks in 2015-16, Panarin - who's since been dubbed "Bread Man" - sits in a tie for seventh among all players in points per game during that span.
Player
Games
Goals
Assists
Points/GP
Patrick Kane
119
56
85
1.18
Sidney Crosby
110
61
65
1.15
Connor McDavid
81
29
61
1.11
Evgeni Malkin
93
42
57
1.06
Jamie Benn
118
51
68
1.01
Tyler Seguin
108
44
63
0.99
Artemi Panarin
117
45
69
0.97
Erik Karlsson
117
23
91
0.97
Vladimir Tarasenko
115
56
56
0.97
Johnny Gaudreau
106
39
64
0.97
In terms of total production, Panarin's 114 points put him in a tie with Karlsson for fourth, behind only Kane, Crosby and Benn, and his performance as a rookie earned him the 2016 Calder Trophy.
The fact that the 25-year-old has yet to miss a game due to injury or otherwise gives him a higher total, but drops him down average-wise in relation to the truly elite.
What's he worth?
Two names that jump out from the list as comparables for Panarin's next contract are Vladimir Tarasenko and Johnny Gaudreau, both of whom signed long-term extensions as pending restricted free agents.
Back in July 2015, Tarasenko signed an eight-year deal with St. Louis worth $60 million, carrying a cap hit of $7.5 million. Gaudreau's deal came in at six years and $40.5 million - a $6.75-million cap hit.
Again, Panarin shares a points-per-game average with these two star players, but has outperformed them in total points, and is two years older, meaning he's in his prime.
According to section 10.1 of the CBA, and confirmed by multiple sources, Panarin is two seasons away from becoming an unrestricted free agent, which would be heading into the 2019-20 season. So, an eight-year deal that kicks in next season buys out six years of unrestricted free agency compared to, say, the one year of unrestricted free agency the Gaudreau deal bought the Flames. The Tarasenko deal, even at eight years, only bought out four years of unrestricted free agency.
A deal similar to Tarasenko's is certainly a fair ask for Panarin, and even that might be on the low end. It should also be noted that at his age, and based on his track record, a team-friendly bridge contract seems unlikely.
What can Chicago afford?
In order for Panarin to remain with the Blackhawks - which he said he wants - he's probably not going to make Tarasenko money, falling closer in line with Gaudreau.
Chicago, of course, has several big-ticket contracts on the books, and general manager Stan Bowman has had to jettison several players in recent years to keep the core intact.
Chicago will have several free agents to re-sign or part ways with at season's end, but among that group, Brian Campbell's $1.5-million deal is the greatest, meaning cap space won't come without moving one of the players mentioned above.
So what's the deal?
All things considered, Panarin appears in line to sign a six-to-eight-year contract worth an annual average salary of approximately $7 million - a deal that would make him the Blackhawks' third-highest-paid player.
But again, in order for that to happen, one of the eight players mentioned above will likely have to be traded, with Seabrook and Crawford standing out as the more likely candidates.
An X-factor is the possibility of an offer sheet, which Panarin would be within his rights to sign if he really wants to cash in.
As a refresher, here's what the compensation looked like based on 2015-16 average salaries:
$5,478,986 to $7,305,316: First-, second-, and third-round pick
$7,305,316 to $9,131,645: Two first-round picks and a second- and third-round pick.
$9,131,645 and above: Four first-round picks
A team desperate for star power could sign him to a deal Chicago would be hard-pressed to match, but at the risk of losing significant draft assets.
If Panarin continues to shine - and there's no reason to believe he won't - his contract situation will be one of the more fascinating stories in 2017.
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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Wednesday, Dec. 28 (all advanced stats are at 5-on-5 and courtesy of Corsica.Hockey):
Triple Threat
C Sidney Crosby (71K), LW Conor Sheary (32K) and D Justin Schultz (32K), Penguins (vs. Hurricanes) : On a small slate, selecting Crosby, the NHL's leading goal scorer, isn't a bad place to start. Sheary has managed three goals and seven assists in December, despite not seeing first-unit power play time with Crosby and Schultz, who has been on better than a point-per-game pace filling in for the injured Kris Letang.
C Aleksander Barkov (61K), RW Jaromir Jagr (58K) and D Michael Matheson (29K), Panthers (vs. Maple Leafs): Barkov has been Mr. Consistent, recording a point in all but two December games. Linemate Jagr has five assists in his last three games, and Matheson has three fewer points than Keith Yandle despite far less power play time. The Leafs allow the fourth-most scoring chances and the third-most expected goals against per 60 minutes.
C Robby Fabbri (34K), RW Vladimir Tarasenko (79K) and D Alex Pietrangelo (31K), Blues (vs. Flyers): Any combo involving Tarasenko, the priciest non-goalie on the slate, is bound to get expensive, so LW Alex Steen (53K) is eschewed in favor of Fabbri, who skates with the Russian sniper on the power play. Pietrangelo often sees ample special teams time as well, which should help if the Blues can't take advantage of the Flyers' fourth-worst 5-on-5 save percentage.
Goalie Breakdown
TARGET: Carey Price (76K), Canadiens (at Lightning): Just a shade above the absolute minimum salary, the consensus best goaltender in the world will undoubtedly be a popular option. Price stopped 30 of 31 shots in an early-season victory over the Lightning, and should Tampa Bay remain without the injured Nikita Kucherov (among others), another win looks to be a strong possibility.
BARGAIN: Peter Budaj (75K), Kings (at Canucks):Vancouver is one of the NHL's lowest-scoring teams and ranks sixth-worst in expected goals for per 60 minutes. The defensively-sound Kings don't allow much in the way of scoring chances, helping Budaj to a 15-8-3 record. He has already beaten the Canucks once this season and owns a .919 save percentage and a 2.04 GAA.
FADE: Carter Hutton (96K), Blues (vs. Flyers): The seldom-used Hutton has stumbled to a .893 save percentage and a 2.93 GAA in 11 games (seven starts), recording two wins. It's a mystery why he's priced ahead of far more established names, especially against the potent Flyers.
CONTRARIAN: Roberto Luongo (107K), Panthers (vs. Maple Leafs): Luongo is hard to beat at home, holding an 8-4-1 record and a .926 save percentage through 13 starts. Toronto ranks third in shots for per 60 minutes, so Luongo should have a chance to rack up the save points.
Bargain Plays
RW Bryan Rust (25K), Penguins (vs. Hurricanes): Playing on Pittsburgh's top line with Crosby and Sheary at even strength, Rust hasn't let a lack of time with the man advantage slow him down, scoring seven goals and added three assists over his last 10 games. A hat trick and a separate one-goal, one-assist outing in that stretch showed some explosive upside.
D Jaccob Slavin (25K), Hurricanes (at Penguins): Slavin should see an increased power-play role with Justin Faulk out of action. The 22-year-old has six assists in his last 10 games, with three of them coming on the man advantage.
LW Phillip Danault (25K), Canadiens (at Lightning): Considered a left winger in Squad Up, Danault is centering Montreal's first line with Max Pacioretty and Alexander Radulov, a prime spot for fantasy relevance. Despite a lack of power-play time, he has taken advantage of his new role, recording a goal and five assists over his last eight games.
Top Fades
C Anze Kopitar (60K), Kings (at Canucks): With Tyler Toffoli out of the lineup, Kopitar's wingers on the top line are Dustin Brown and Devin Setoguchi, a duo that has a combined 24 points in 60 games. Kopitar himself has managed just 16 points in 29 contests, so until the Kings' depth improves, he looks unlikely to justify such a hefty price tag.
D Shea Weber (54K), Canadiens (at Lightning): Weber has just one point in December, but his salary is still inflated from his early-season scoring run. Despite his propensity for blocked shots and hits, he's hard-pressed to live up to his price without getting on the score sheet with more regularity. Lightning G Andrei Vasilevskiy has fared well at home, holding a .928 save percentage through eight appearances.
RW Alexander Radulov (59K), Canadiens (at Lightning): Radulov is priced like a goal scorer, but has only found the back of the net six times through 32 games, and hasn't notched a point in six straight outings. The above-mentioned Danault offers some bargain-priced exposure to Montreal's top line without the risk of spending up for Radulov.
Contrarian Options
RW Wayne Simmonds (60K), Flyers (at Blues): In the midst of a four-game scoring drought, interest in Simmonds may be lower than usual, but he has a great shot at a rebound performance against Hutton. Should Simmonds find the score sheet, his hits and penalty minutes will only accentuate his Squad Up output.
C Evgeni Malkin (69K), Penguins (vs. Hurricanes): Malkin, by virtue of sharing a center spot with Crosby, likely gets ignored more than he should in Squad Up. But Malkin has 19 points in December, with multi-point efforts in seven of 13 games.
LW Tanner Pearson (46K), Kings (at Canucks): Despite 23 shots on goal, Pearson hasn't scored in 15 games, though he does have five assists in that stretch. With a prime first-unit power play role alongside Kopitar and Jeff Carter, his goal drought should end before too long.
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theScore will be giving out fantasy report cards discussing the fantasy value of key players on each of the 30 teams. This edition focuses on the Montreal Canadiens.
Despite the odd disaster outing, Price has come as advertised. In 25 starts, he is 18-5-2 with a superhuman .934 save percentage. With injuries and uncertain sources of scoring, Price still manages to scrape wins off the ice. He's the best goaltender on the planet and is the only one worth trusting with this sporadic team in front of him. Grade: A+
LW Max Pacioretty
Pacioretty went through a severe goal-scoring drought with only one goal over an 11-game stretch between late October and early November. He turned a corner in December, though he is still looking more like a boom-or-bust candidate. His propensity to take several shots per game helps, and he's been finding twine at a better rate than he did in his slow start. Grade: B-
RW Alexander Radulov
No complaints here. Radulov's relatively low goal totals are easy to ignore because of his expertise in setting up his teammates. He started slowly, but he has not been held off the score sheet often, though he had a rough road trip to finish November. He's one of the few Canadiens worth rostering on a daily basis even if his upside is limited without the goals. Grade: A
RW Brendan Gallagher
Hampered by a poor shooting percentage, Gallagher has not developed into a consistent scorer. He's provided a decent floor, but after scoring twice on opening night, he hasn't gone back to the well often enough, including a six-game point-less streak in early November. He won't cost much, but the returns aren't inspiring. Grade: C
C Alex Galchenyuk
Before the knee injury, Galchenyuk had established himself as the Canadiens' most consistent fantasy option. He had only been held without a point in consecutive games once and had tallied five multi-point offerings. His ceiling wasn't reaching elite status, but he was as dependable as they come for cash-game options. Grade: A
LW Paul Byron
Byron established a career high with 11 goals in 2015-16 and has already matched it. His high shooting percentage (23.9) suggests a correction is going to come soon, but he's been the bargain play of the season. Exceeding expectations, any extra fantasy value is gravy. Grade: A-
C Tomas Plekanec
The Montreal mainstay is having his worst offensive season, leaving him on the cutting room floor in all fantasy formats. Plekanec's 4.8 shooting percentage is largely to blame as it's comically below his career numbers. He can't be trusted. Grade: F
D Shea Weber
The prize of the P.K. Subban acquisition paid immediate dividends when he first suited up for the Canadiens and, like many teammates, his offensive numbers cooled after a hot start. Weber adds a couple blocked shots per game, so he maintains value even when he's not scoring. Expected offensive regression has settled in with only one point in his last 12 games. Grade: B
D Andrei Markov
A cheaper alternative to Weber on most nights for the right reasons. He's less likely to score as he takes fewer shots, but he makes up for it with a smattering of assists and leads the team in helpers. Eventually, Markov is going to fall off due to age, but it hasn't happened yet. A limited ceiling prevents him from being a tournament option. Grade: B+
Player to Watch - LW Artturi Lehkonen
The rookie has played in 25 games and has seen some success. Five of his seven goals have come in 11 December games. His playing time jumped briefly, and settled back to under 14 minutes per game over his last five. Should injuries continue to pile up, Lehkonen has some serious upside, though he's only sporadically taking enough shots.
Nearing the end of 2016 - a year in which the Pittsburgh Penguins goalie watched rookie Matt Murray backstop the team to a Stanley Cup, Fleury did his best to leave a mark with a diving stick save against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday.
The save was one of 21 made by Fleury in Pittsburgh's 5-2 win.
With yet another victory Tuesday night, the Minnesota Wild pushed their current winning streak to 11 games.
The Wild edged the Nashville Predators 3-2, putting them within a point of the Chicago Blackhawks for top spot in the Western Conference with three games in hand.
Despite the recent streak, the team has been rolling along all season which has new head coach Bruce Boudreau grinning from ear to ear, thanks in large part to one incredible stat.
"There has been one game that we've lost by more than one goal. it's not hard to be proud of them," Boudreau said, according to Michael Russo of the Star Tribune.
That's right.
Only in the team's 6-3 loss to the New York Islanders on Oct. 23 have the Wild lost by more than a single goal all season. Such a stat sees the team with the second-best goal differential at plus-37.
As fate would have it, the Wild's next test will come against those very Islanders on Thursday before they host the Columbus Blue Jackets as the league's two hottest club face off.
With yet another victory Tuesday night, the Minnesota Wild pushed their current winning streak to 11 games.
The Wild edged the Nashville Predators 3-2, putting them within a point of the Chicago Blackhawks for top spot in the Western Conference with three games in hand.
Despite the recent streak, the team has been rolling along all season which has new head coach Bruce Boudreau grinning from ear to ear, thanks in large part to one incredible stat.
"There has been one game that we've lost by more than one goal. it's not hard to be proud of them," Boudreau said, according to Michael Russo of the Star Tribune.
That's right.
Only in the team's 6-3 loss to the New York Islanders on Oct. 23 have the Wild lost by more than a single goal all season. Such a stat sees the team with the second-best goal differential at plus-37.
As fate would have it, the Wild's next test will come against those very Islanders on Thursday before they host the Columbus Blue Jackets as the league's two hottest club face off.
