Florida Panthers pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) Aaron Ekblad remains without a contract extension, with July 1 rapidly approaching. If this does not change by then, he will become a UFA and would be an incredibly popular target around the league. 

In a recent episode of TSN Insider Trading, NHL insider Pierre LeBrun said that he believes Aaron Ekblad is the Panthers' pending UFA most likely to test the market on July 1. In addition, he named the Utah Mammoth and Dallas Stars as two teams who could sign him if he becomes available. 

"Aaron Ekblad, I think, is the pending UFA that ends up going to market," LeBrun said. "I'm not saying that 100%, but that's where signs are right now. Terms has been an issue there. Potential landing spots in Utah and Dallas, depending on what those teams do on the trade market."

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The Mammoth pursuing Ekblad would certainly make a lot of sense. They are a club on the rise, looking to get into the playoffs, and they recently traded right-shot defenseman Michael Kesselring to the Buffalo Sabres in the JJ Peterka trade. Thus, they could use another top-four, right-shot defenseman. If Ekblad signed in Utah, he would instantly become their top right-shot blueliner. 

The Stars being interested in Ekblad would also be understandable, as it is no secret that the right side of their defense is their biggest weakness right now. However, they also have very little cap space, so they would need to move out some salary to have any chance of bringing in a star blueliner like Ekblad. 

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The Buffalo Sabres pulled off the first of what is expected to be a series of trades early Thursday morning, swapping restricted free agent winger JJ Peterka to the Utah Mammoth for defenseman Michael Kesselring and winger Josh Doan, but going into NHL Draft day on Friday, GM Kevyn Adams is focused on fielding offers for RFA defenseman Bowen Byram

According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on his 32 Thoughts podcast, the Vegas Golden Knights have interest in Byram, who have questions on the blueline due to the injury status of Alex Pietrangelo and RFA blueliner Nicolas Hague, but the Golden Knights may have to do some cap cutting by trading players if they want to add Byram and be in the bidding war for Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner.  

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Friedman indicated that the market for Byram had been not as brisk as the Sabres would have liked. The 23-year-old is a top pairing caliber defenseman who can rush the puck. That could be because as an RFA, a club trading for Byram would not only have to trade NHL players to acquire him (which is what Buffalo is looking for in return), and would have to sign him to a long-term extension for significant dollars. 

Sabres winger Alex Tuch’s name has been speculated on, but Friedman said that Buffalo is looking to extend the veteran forward when he becomes eligible on July 1. He also mentioned that Buffalo may have inquired about two-time Stanley Cup winner Bryan Rust, who reportedly is being shopped by the Pittsburgh Penguins. The 33-year-old scored a career-high 31 goals last season for the Pens, does not have any no-trade protection, and is signed for three more years at $5.125 million per season.  

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As multiple outlets reported yesterday, including RG.org’s Marco D’Amico and Journal de Quebec’s Kevin Dube, the Montreal Canadiens are very interested in right-shot blueliner Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders, and they’ve even made an offer. Furthermore, according to TVA Sports’ Anthony Martineau, the 25-year-old defenseman would have Montreal at the top of his list of destinations, although he has no leverage to choose where he will land.

The Islanders’ first-round pick and 12th overall at the 2018 draft has already proven he can be successful in the NHL. In the 2023-24 season, he even put up 70 points in 79 games, but this last season, his production was way down with just 29 points in 71 games, and perhaps that’s where the issue is for the Isles. The Canadiens' interest in Dobson should come as no surprise since he had previously been identified as a potential target.

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Dobson is set to become an RFA on July 1, and according to Andy Strickland, a journalist covering the St. Louis Blues, the rearguard wants a contract that would pay him over $10 million per season. Why is a St. Louis-based journalist reporting this? Simply because the Canadiens are not the only team interested in adding Dobson to their roster, the Blues and the Columbus Blue Jacketsare also deep in talks with Mathieu Darche to try to land the blueliner.

Whichever way you look at it, acquiring Dobson will not be cheap; this is not a Trevor Zegras to the Philadelphia Flyers kind of deal, nor will it be a Ryan Poehling and two picks type of return. Dobson’s stock on the market is much higher than that of the former Anaheim Ducks forward who had been on the trade block for a long time. In addition to the acquisition cost, the contract cost will also be a factor, given the reported asking price.

The amount sought by Dobson makes his availability at least more logical. Lou Lamoriello had reportedly been interested in trading him for some time, and when Darche took over, we wondered if the defenseman would still be available. The Islanders’ new GM has not publicly stated that he is entertaining offers for himself. Still, neither has he come out to say he isn’t going anywhere, unlike he did in Bob Horvat and Matthew Barzal’s cases, which leads me to believe that he is indeed seriously considering a deal.

The Islanders may be on the clock here as well, because while they will retain Dobson’s rights come July 1, he would be a prime candidate for an offer sheet given how much of a hot commodity he is. New York currently has just under $21 million in cap space, but only has 17 of 23 contracts signed, with Dobson, Alexander Romanov, Simon Holmstrom, and Maxim Tsyplakov all needing new deals. All of these players are arbitration-eligible, but that process is never good for a team’s relationship with an athlete. Sitting in a room telling an arbitrator why the player isn’t as good or worth as much as he thinks he is for hours is hardly a pleasant experience, and it should be avoided whenever possible.

If Darche were to trade Dobson, he would get himself some breathing room to sign the remaining members of his team. He could receive players who are likely to help sooner rather than later, and it could be at a reasonable cost, especially if they are still in their ELC contract.

Which brings me to the Canadiens’ likely offer, but to land Dobson, Montreal would probably need to trade one or even two of its first-round picks at the upcoming draft. Given that Dobson is a right-shot defenseman, one of the top prospects at the position. Which could mean either Logan Mailloux or David Reinbacher. I get the sense that Montreal would be more open to sacrificing Mailloux, who’s the most NHL-ready of the two, but Reinbacher’s ceiling is likely higher than his teammate’s with the Laval Rocket.

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Given the fact that there are plenty of suitors to acquire Dobson, the price would more than likely involve another one of the organization’s top prospects, and Owen Beck would seem like a good candidate. I don’t see Montreal even entertaining the idea of offering Michael Hage at this stage, considering his offensive ceiling is likely higher than Beck’s. Could the Islanders ask for Arber Xhekaj in the deal as well? I wouldn't exclude that possibility since they lost some grit and physicality with Matt Martin's retirement. 

If the Canadiens were to be the winning bidder, however, what would signing Dobson mean financially? If they pull the trigger on the trade, it will be because they know they’ll be able to sign the player long-term, and with his asking price, he would instantly become the Habs’ highest-paid player.

For those saying he shouldn’t be earning more than Nick Suzuki, it’s time to let go of that concept. The captain’s contract was signed back in 2021 in a post-COVID flat cap world. It’s already impressive that Kent Hughes managed to keep Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky under that number.

Last year, the salary cap stood at $88 M. This upcoming season, it will be at $95.5M, the year after that at $104 M and finally, in 2027-28 it will be set at $113.5 M. What that means it that there will be bigger salaries and more players earning more money. Suppose the Canadiens believe that Dobson is the right fit both on and off the ice and are comfortable offering him a contract exceeding $10M. In that case, it will necessarily mean that Lane Hutson will be seeking a similar, if not even higher, deal. Given the fact that Kaiden Guhle is locked in for five years at $5.55 M, it wouldn’t necessarily be unreasonable to entertain the thought of having your two top-pairing defenseman earn 10-plus million in this new financial context.

We are getting ahead of ourselves here, as Dobson hasn’t been traded to Montreal yet, but I fully expect that we’ll know sooner rather than later who the Dobson-derby winner is.

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