While the main focus of NHL free agency is on the players signing contracts on the open market, there’s also added significance to July 1.
That date is also the kickoff of the period in which NHLers entering the final season of multi-year contracts can sign an extension.
Who are the top players that can sign extensions as of July 1? Since the group of players here is rather deep, we’re breaking down the group into four different tiers of players. Let’s get right down to business.
Tier 1: The Superstars
Players: Connor McDavid (C, Edmonton), Kirill Kaprizov (LW, Minnesota), Jack Eichel (C, Vegas), Artemi Panarin (RW, NY Rangers), Kyle Connor (LW, Winnipeg)
The Breakdown: All five players on this list would be surprises if they failed to come to terms on an extension before the beginning of the season.
Obviously, McDavid is the best player on the face of the earth, so he’ll be setting the bar for every elite player that signs after him. If anyone were to get a cap hit worth the maximum 20 percent of the cap for a player, it’d be McDavid. But that would severely hamstring the Oilers’ ability to surround him and fellow superstar Leon Draisaitl with top talent.
McDavid prioritized a long-term Cup-contending window and his family for his next deal, so Edmonton will have to prove it’s the place to stay.
Meanwhile, the Wild will have to give Kaprizov major money – likely at least $12 million, if not more – to prevent him from becoming a UFA at this time next year. It would also be shocking if Vegas didn’t re-sign Eichel and if Panarin left the Rangers. Connor may be the most intriguing case here, as the Jets have been able to get star players signed far below market value. But Winnipeg needs the 40 goals and 90 points Connor provides, so he may hold the hammer in contract negotiations.
Tier 2: The Support Stars
Players: Adrian Kempe (C, Los Angeles), Jason Robertson (LW, Dallas), Martin Necas (RW, Colorado), Alex Tuch (RW, Buffalo)
The Breakdown: Don’t get it twisted – they aren’t superstars, but they’re integral to their team’s needs.
Kempe may get the biggest payday of the four, as the Kings aren’t flush with needle-moving forwards who can generate 35 to 40 goals and 75 points as Kempe can. That said, Kempe’s salary of $5.5 million probably won’t be doubled on his new deal.
The Stars, who aren’t teeming with cap space, may ultimately move Robertson rather than pay him big bucks after acquiring right winger Mikko Rantanen. Similarly, Necas and Tuch might be dealt by the Avs and Sabres, respectively. The cap ceiling surge will ensure everyone in this group is well paid but not so much that it hampers their team from filling out their needs elsewhere.
Tier 3: The Young Stars
Players: Connor Bedard (C, Chicago) Lane Hutson (D, Montreal), Leo Carlsson (C, Anaheim), Adam Fantilli (C, Columbus), Logan Cooley (C, Utah), Logan Stankoven (C, Carolina), William Eklund (LW, San Jose)
The Breakdown: This tier is the most intriguing, as the seven youngsters here have the option of either accepting a bridge deal on their next contract or signing an extension for the full eight years allowable in the current collective bargaining agreement.
At a time when the cap ceiling will rise exponentially, bridge deals may be the best option for any players in this category. They all will be RFAs, so team control won’t be an issue.
But who knows – the comfort of knowing where they’ll be playing for close to the next decade may be most important to one or more of them. So we imagine the sooner someone signs, the likelier they’ve decided that long term is the way to go. The longer it takes them to get an extension, the more they may choose to be patient and sign a short-term deal.
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Tier 4: The Old Stars
Players: Alex Ovechkin (LW, Washington), Evgeni Malkin (C, Pittsburgh), Anze Kopitar (C, Los Angeles), John Carlson (D, Washington), Anders Lee (LW, NY Islanders)
The Breakdown: None of the five players in this category needs to break the bank on what could be their final contract. And in Malkin’s case or Ovechkin’s case specifically, they may ultimately decide to retire. But if they do choose to extend their NHL career, it will be fascinating to see what type of arrangement they arrive at with their employer.
Do they take the route Boston Bruins veterans Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci went toward the end of their NHL careers and sign for far below market value to give their team a better chance at winning the Cup? Or do they play it as stone-cold businessmen and demand as much money as possible? Their decision will certainly affect the ability of their respective teams to contend for a championship beyond next season.
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