Tag Archives: Hockey

NHL Thursday best bets: Capitals to swarm Blue Jackets

Wednesday was a great one for our best bets as we swept the board. Despite a surprise start from Brian Elliott, our under of 6.5 goals in Minnesota came through. We also hit both player props.

We'll look to keep the ball moving in the right direction with a pair of sides for Thursday's slate.

Capitals (-200) @ Blue Jackets (+170)

The Washington Capitals are on a roll. They have won seven of the last 10 games and collected at least a point in nine of them.

Their underlying process in that time has been strong, as they slot seventh with an expected goal share above 55% at five-on-five. They are always dangerous on the power play - and the goaltending is potent - so the Capitals are evidently an extremely difficult team to deal with when getting the job done at full-strength.

We have every reason to believe they can deliver Thursday night in Columbus. For one, T.J. Oshie is expected to return and skate alongside Marcus Johansson and Lars Eller on the third line. His presence makes that unit a lot more formidable, giving the Capitals three lines with legitimate scoring threats. He'll give a strong power play an extra little boost.

The Blue Jackets are not a good five-on-five team, especially defensively. Only the Anaheim Ducks have given up Grade A chances at a higher clip than the Blue Jackets.

That's not ideal for a team scheduled to start Elvis Merzlikins. Among all goaltenders with at least 10 appearances this season, Merzlikins ranks last in Goals Saved Above Expected (minus-18) and GSAE per start (minus-1.531).

Joonas Korpisalo is a plus in both categories while dealing with the exact same playing circumstances. Thus, it is fair to say Merzlikins is making a bad Blue Jackets team even worse.

Given the level of play we have seen from the Jackets this season, all the injuries they're dealing with, and the fact a strong Capitals team is starting to get healthy, I expect the latter to take care of business with relative ease inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Capitals in regulation (-130)

Penguins (+105) @ Golden Knights (-120)

Things are not looking good for the Pittsburgh Penguins right now. They have struggled defensively for a few weeks and it has really started to catch up to them. The Pens have dropped five consecutive games, giving up at least four goals in four of them.

With Jeff Petry (injury) and Kris Letang (personal) sidelined, their blue line is having a very difficult time holding up. Given as much, the Penguins are more reliant on goaltending than they generally have been in the past. That's why the recent injury to Tristan Jarry is even more troublesome.

Now the Penguins have to try and right the ship against a very good Vegas Golden Knights team.

Despite dealing with a ton of injuries all season long, the Golden Knights lead the Pacific Division and enter play in strong form.

They own a 6-3-1 record over the last 10 games and have controlled better than 59% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five. That slots them third in the NHL.

The Penguins have posted a 45% high-danger chance share over the same period and rank near the bottom of the NHL. Their poor share stems mostly from struggles preventing Grade A chances.

The imminent return of Jack Eichel won't make life any easier for Pittsburgh. He leads the Golden Knights in points per game and average Game Score. He is by far the team's most threatening weapon.

Eichel's return will provide some much needed firepower to the lineup and give Vegas more depth at the center position, which will come in handy going up against the likes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

I think the Golden Knights are underpriced in this spot at home against a vulnerable Penguins side.

Bet: Golden Knights (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Norris Trophy Rankings: Morrissey enters the mix

Welcome to the fourth edition of theScore's 2022-23 Norris Trophy Rankings and the third in-season version. New rankings are published once a month throughout the campaign.

These rankings focus on analytics and the all-around ability of defensemen rather than just points or reputation.

  • xGF% = the share of expected goals a team produces while a player is on the ice at five-on-five

5. Rasmus Dahlin, Sabres

Richard T Gagnon / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Previous rank: 2nd

GP G A ATOI xGF%
35 10 29 26:21 52.0

Dahlin's come down to earth a bit after a scorching start, tallying just three even-strength points and a sub-50% xGF% in 10 games since the last rankings. His lack of discipline continues to be an issue, as he's racked up eight penalty minutes in those 10 games and pushed his total to 44 on the season. There's nothing wrong with playing with an edge, but the Sabres need him on the ice, not in the box.

The 2018 first-overall pick is still enjoying a spectacular season and is firmly in this Norris race, but several other players have pulled ahead of him over the last month.

4. Cale Makar, Avalanche

Michael Martin / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: 4th

GP G A ATOI xGF%
36 9 25 27:09 54.5

Makar had to carry a lot on his shoulders through December with the Avalanche's rash of injuries, and he's delivered. He's collected 10 points in 12 games with a 54.9 xGF%, and Colorado was able to tread water with a 6-4-2 record in that time.

But Makar's heroics and overall stellar play at both ends of the ice this season weren't enough to move him any higher on our list - that's no fault of his own.

3. Josh Morrissey, Jets

Jonathan Kozub / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: N/A

GP G A ATOI xGF%
38 7 36 23:20 50.0

All aboard the Josh "Norrissey" hype train. Morrissey has put together an excellent campaign offensively, but some defensive red flags have kept him out of our top five in prior editions.

However, Morrissey has cleaned those up, posting a 56.8 xGF% and a much-improved 2.27 expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five since our last rankings. He's stayed hot offensively, too, with 15 points in 13 games in that span. Morrissey also leads all NHL defensemen 13.2 goals above replacement.

The 27-year-old has never even received down-ballot Norris votes in his seven previous NHL seasons, but that's certainly about to change during a career year.

2. Adam Fox, Rangers

Mike Carlson / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: 1st

GP G A ATOI xGF%
39 7 31 24:59 58.4

Fox has been one of the most complete defensemen in the league this season. Among qualified blue-liners, he ranks 15th in xGF%, 19th in GF%, sixth with 9.6 goals above replacement, and first with 16.2 expected goals above replacement. He also sits third at his position with 23 even-strength points.

So while he hasn't been quite as dynamic offensively as Morrissey, his two-way play gives him the nod over the Jets blue-liner. But it's still not enough to close in on our list's No. 1 spot.

1. Erik Karlsson, Sharks

Derek Cain / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Previous rank: 3rd

GP G A ATOI xGF%
39 13 40 25:12 50.1

Yes, these rankings aren't just about points and reflect the all-around abilities of defensemen, but what Karlsson is doing offensively has more than made up for any defensive shortcomings in his game.

The two-time Norris winner isn't just a power-play wizard. His 39 even-strength points are the most among all NHL skaters - four more than second-place Connor McDavid - and 12 more than the next blue-liner.

The fact that he's on pace for 112 points is just flat-out absurd. It would mark the most by a rearguard since Paul Coffey tallied 113 in 1988-89. Scoring is up in the NHL (6.34 goals per game), but it's still way harder to find twine now than during the '88-89 campaign (7.48 goals per game). Even if Karlsson slows down a bit but still reaches 100 points, it would mark the highest by a blue-liner since Brian Leetch's 102 in 1991-92, when scoring was at 6.96 goals per game.

Karlsson is showing no signs of slowing down, either. He's amazingly racked up 18 points in 10 games and a 56.0 xGF% since the last edition of these rankings - all while playing for one of the worst teams in the league. Imagine if he was on a contending club! In that case, he would be the Hart Trophy favorite.

Honorable mentions: Miro Heiskanen, Hampus Lindholm, Filip Hronek

(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)

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NHL includes Twitter in All-Star voting, lets fans pick 12 players

The NHL is incorporating Twitter activity into All-Star voting this season.

Fans will choose a dozen of the 44 players that will suit up for the festivities in Sunrise, Florida, next month, and the league will factor tweets into the equation, NHL chief marketing officer Heidi Browning told ESPN's Emily Kaplan.

The league's hockey operations department has already chosen 32 All-Stars, who'll be revealed Thursday night. The NHL is opening the voting Wednesday for the remaining players - two skaters and a goaltender from each of the four divisions - for both the All-Star Game and the skills competition.

Twitter voting will be combined with the standard online selection procedure and incorporate tweets mentioning a player's name or handle while using the official All-Star hashtag, as well as retweets, replies, and quote tweets.

The 12 remaining players are likely to be unveiled Jan. 19, just over two weeks before the skills event on Feb. 3.

Last season, fans selected the four divisional team captains and the four "Last Men In."

Former enforcer John Scott got an All-Star nod and ultimately claimed MVP honors in 2016 after the "Marek vs. Wyshynski" podcast supported his candidacy with a tongue-in-cheek online campaign. The NHL changed the process following that saga to limit the fans' influence over voting.

The retired forward couldn't help but make reference to that incident Wednesday:

The NHL's first modern All-Star debacle came in 2007 when fans rallied behind journeyman defenseman Rory Fitzpatrick, who had no points in 18 games at the time. Fitzpatrick finished third among blue-liners with around 23,000 fewer votes than Nicklas Lidstrom and approximately 116,000 more than Chris Pronger. It likely happened because fans were encouraged to vote as many times as they liked that year.

The Florida Panthers will host the All-Star festivities for the first time since 2003. The NHL awarded the event to Sunrise in 2021 but later canceled it due to the COVID-19 pandemic and gave the 2022 edition to the Vegas Golden Knights.

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Report: Bruins’ DeBrusk has fractured fibula

The Boston Bruins won the Winter Classic, but they may have suffered a significant blow in the process.

Jake DeBrusk has a broken fibula, reports Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli.

Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery said Wednesday that DeBrusk isn't traveling with the team on its three-game West Coast road trip, and the club will provide an update on his condition Thursday, according to The Boston Globe's Matt Porter.

The winger was the star of Boston's outdoor victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins, scoring two third-period goals in a 2-1 win at Fenway Park on Monday.

DeBrusk was on track for a career season with 16 goals and 14 assists over 36 games. Five of those tallies came in the last six contests. He'd missed only one game before the injury in 2022-23 and was on pace for 35 goals and 31 assists had he been able to play 80 games.

The 26-year-old was thriving on the Bruins' top line alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron.

DeBrusk collected 25 markers and 17 helpers across 77 tilts in 2021-22. He's in his sixth campaign with Boston. The Bruins nearly traded him in November 2021 and then again in March, but the forward rescinded his request to be dealt in July.

Boston drafted DeBrusk 14th overall in 2015.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Wild, Lightning to play it tight

Tuesday night was a solid one on the ice. While we split our best bets, two of our three shot props came through - with William Nylander falling one shy of a sweep - to earn us a winning night.

Let's keep the ball rolling with three plays for Wednesday's modest NHL slate.

Lightning (-105) @ Wild (-115)

Though this game features plenty of high-end offensive players, it's the under that stands out.

The goaltending matchup between Andrei Vasilevskiy and Filip Gustavsson is a very good one. Vasilevskiy owns a .921 save percentage through 26 appearances and enters this contest scorching hot. He's conceded two goals or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts and posted save percentages above league average in the two exceptions.

Vasilevskiy isn't giving opponents any freebies and is keeping the Lightning in every game. With Tampa Bay on the latter half of a road back-to-back, the team will no doubt try to slow things down and let Vasilevskiy take care of the rest.

Gustavsson, meanwhile, has played surprisingly well this year, recording a .920 save percentage through 14 appearances in his debut season with the Wild. He's stopped 0.424 goals above expected per start - good for 14th among 62 NHL goaltenders who have played in at least 10 games.

The goaltending should be sound in this game. But, quite frankly, neither netminder should be tested to the extreme.

Minnesota ranks third in high-danger chance suppression over the last 10 games. Only the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights have been better at five-on-five during that stretch.

Tampa Bay has been stout in its own right, sitting top 10 in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes over the same period.

With both teams limiting Grade A looks and a strong matchup between the pipes, don't expect a ton of scoring in this game.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-125)

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-140)

The Ducks are quickly entering Blue Jackets territory when it comes to surrendering shots to opposing defensemen. Anaheim is now giving up more than 11 shots per game to opposing blue-liners, joining Columbus (11.03) as the only other team above that mark.

The Ducks haven't caught up to the Blue Jackets because the latter have stiffened up; Anaheim's struggles have just reached new heights. The Ducks have conceded 12.1 shots per game to defensemen over their last 10 contests, putting them nearly 1.5 shots clear of the next-closest team in that time.

Suffice it to say, Miro Heiskanen finds himself in a mouth-watering spot Wednesday when the Stars visit the Ducks - and he's more than capable of taking advantage.

A dark horse for the Norris Trophy, Heiskanen has recorded 56 shot attempts over his last 10 games. Only seven defensemen - including Cale Makar, Roman Josi, and other elite offensive rearguards - have bested him in that time.

Look for Heiskanen to keep shooting against a putrid Ducks team.

Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 shots (-110)

Joel Eriksson Ek - like many we target for shots - is more efficient at generating them on home ice.

The underrated two-way pivot has averaged 5.3 shot attempts per game over his last 10 in Minnesota compared to 4.4 attempts per road game this season.

Furthering Eriksson Ek's appeal in this spot is the stylistic matchup. He doesn't seem to pile up many shots against porous defenses that allow the Wild's top players to embrace a run-and-gun style. He's at his best in slow, methodical, grind-it-out games - which is what we should see in Wednesday's tilt against the Lightning.

Examining Eriksson Ek's recent shot-volume history, he's gotten the job done against the Flames, Stars, and Predators while falling short against less structured teams like the Blackhawks and Red Wings.

Eriksson Ek has also fared well against the Lightning over the years, generating four shots or more in four of his last six contests versus Tampa Bay.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Rangers sign Vesey to 2-year extension

The New York Rangers have signed forward Jimmy Vesey to a two-year contract extension, the team announced Wednesday.

The extension carries an $800,000 cap hit, according to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman. Vesey was set to become an unrestricted free agent following the 2022-23 campaign.

Vesey has tallied six goals and 12 points in 38 contests with the Rangers this season. The 29-year-old attended New York's training camp on a professional tryout before signing a one-year, league-minimum contract on Oct. 9.

A star at Harvard University, Vesey captured the 2016 Hobey Baker Award as the top collegiate player. He became a coveted free agent when he elected not to sign with the Nashville Predators, who drafted him in the third round in 2012.

Vesey signed with the Rangers in 2016 to begin his NHL career, tallying 50 goals and 90 points over 240 games in his first stint with the team.

He struggled to find a consistent home after New York traded him in 2019; he spent time with the Buffalo Sabres, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, and New Jersey Devils over the past three seasons.

Vesey has 78 goals and 147 points in 460 career NHL games.

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Vezina Trophy Rankings: Vasilevskiy joins the mix as top 3 gets shake-up

Welcome to the third in-season edition of theScore's 2022-23 Vezina Trophy Rankings. Only one goalie remains in the same spot as December's list, while a veteran debutant and a brand new No. 1 candidate shake things up.

Each of our candidates have been scorching hot over the past few weeks and are separated by the slimmest of margins. Here's how things stand as we wade into 2023.

GSAA = Goals saved above average
GSAx = Goals saved above expected

5. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

Mike Carlson / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: N/A

Record GAA SV% GSAA GSAx
16-9-1 2.42 .921 12.69 14.34

Vasilevskiy cracked our preseason rankings based on his reputation as one of this generation's top goalies, but he hadn't made the cut since. Then the Lightning backstop officially threw his hat into the ring with a dominant stretch since our last list (Dec. 7) in which he went 6-1 with a .952 save percentage and 1.56 goals-against average. Vasilevskiy is now in the top five this season in all the stats in the chart above aside from GSAx, where he ranks sixth. The 2019 Vezina winner has proven capable of putting up eye-popping numbers for long stretches over the course of his Hall of Fame career, and he could easily wind up a finalist for the fifth time in six years if he stays close to his current form.

4. Jake Oettinger, Stars

Sam Hodde / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: 4th

Record GAA SV% GSAA GSAx
17-6-3 2.39 .920 11.54 15.29

Oettinger has been a mainstay on our lists this season, but he comes in fourth once again because the Stars are far superior defensively to the teams featuring two of our other candidates. Oettinger's faced fewer expected goals than all but two goalies in our rankings and is last among our five netminders in GSAA. Both factors hurt his chances at hardware for the time being, but he's still the backbone of a division-leading team and is near the top of the list for all the key goaltending stats. The 24-year-old has half the season left to work his way into the top three, and even if he doesn't, Oettinger has proven he belongs in the conversation as one of the NHL's best between the pipes.

3. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets

Jonathan Kozub / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: 2nd

Record GAA SV% GSAA GSAx
19-9-1 2.31 .928 21.41 20.83

Hellebuyck dropped a spot this month, but it's hardly his fault. He and our No. 2 have been practically interchangeable all season. The Jets superstar gets the short end of the stick this time mainly due to a ridiculous surge from our new No. 1. Hellebuyck is posting Herculean numbers on a Winnipeg team that ranks 20th in expected goals and has better stats across the board than he did in his Vezina-worthy 2020 campaign. He's nearly matched his total GSAA (22.4) from the award-winning season in 29 fewer starts, and he should have no problem maintaining his stellar play.

2. Ilya Sorokin, Islanders

Norm Hall / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: 1st

Record GAA SV% GSAA GSAx
14-12-1 2.29 .926 17.7 25.93

Sorokin and Hellebuyck have produced very similar campaigns, and their teams are in very similar positions in the standings, but the Islanders stalwart gets the razor-thin edge due to playing in a better division and besting Winnipeg's No. 1 in a few key stats. Sorokin's GSAx on the season is tops in the NHL, and in 10 games played for both goaltenders since our last edition - where Sorokin also earned a slight edge - Long Island's backstop has slightly better numbers than Hellebuyck in each of the stats we rely on to form our rankings. Both goalies are clearly among the best in the league, and they're likely to keep battling for position near the top of our list for the remainder of the season.

1. Linus Ullmark, Bruins

Joe Sargent / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: 3rd

Record GAA SV% GSAA GSAx
21-1-1 1.86 .939 23.29 18.98

It's gotten to the point where we can't place Ullmark anywhere but No. 1. Sure, he may play for the best team in the league, but he's only lost a single game in regulation this season while leading the NHL in save percentage, goals-against average, and goals saved above average. If voting was held today, he might win unanimously - and definitely would if he'd converted his empty-net attempt at the Winter Classic. We've wondered all season when, and how severely, Ullmark and Boston may regress, but at nearly the halfway mark, there's no indication of an impending decline. The netminder's play would have to fall off a cliff for him to relinquish the top spot on our list.

(Stats source: Evolving-Hockey)

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