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Stanley Cup Final: Conn Smythe winner tips, bets to consider
The St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins begin the Stanley Cup Final on Monday. Here, we focus on betting tips for who'll win the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the most valuable player throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Before we dive into the odds, here are some things to keep in mind:
- No goalie has won the Conn Smythe since Tim Thomas and Jonathan Quick took the honors back-to-back in 2011 and '12, respectively. Five of the last six recipients have been forwards.
- Only five players have won the Conn Smythe as a member of the losing Stanley Cup Final team.
- Bruins skaters will be shaded a bit shorter due to Boston being favored in the series.
Conn Smythe odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask (BOS) | 2-3 |
| Jordan Binnington (STL) | 13-5 |
| Brad Marchand (BOS) | 6-1 |
| Jaden Schwartz (STL) | 10-1 |
| David Pastrnak (BOS) | 20-1 |
| Patrice Bergeron (BOS) | 20-1 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko (STL) | 25-1 |
| Alex Pietrangelo (STL) | 40-1 |
| David Krejci (BOS) | 40-1 |
| Ryan O'Reilly (STL) | 80-1 |
| Charlie Coyle (BOS) | 100-1 |
| David Perron (STL) | 150-1 |
| Oskar Sundqvist (STL) | 200-1 |
| Tyler Bozak (STL) | 200-1 |
Goalies favored to buck the trend
Both Rask and Binnington have had memorable postseasons and odds say one of those netminders will end the six-year Conn Smythe goalie drought. Rask boasts a 1.84 goals-against average and .924 save percentage along with two shutouts over 17 postseason games. Meanwhile, Binnington has been excellent in his playoff debut despite being roughed up in his previous series against the San Jose Sharks. Overall, the rookie has posted a .914 save percentage with one shutout.
Forwards to consider
Schwartz is the front-runner for the Blues at 10-1 odds thanks to potting 12 goals so far in the postseason, including a pair of hat-trick performances. However, Tarasenko might be the more intriguing winger on that top St. Louis line. Following a slow start to the playoffs, Tarasenko has recorded a point in each of his previous six outings and has put the second-most pucks on net of any player in the postseason.
Marchand leads Bruins skaters at 6-1 odds thanks to posting 18 points in 17 games. His linemate, Bergeron, only has 13, but has been a consistent point producer in the championship round, registering six goals and nine points in 12 career Stanley Cup Final games.
Long shot to consider
O'Reilly was St. Louis' top point-getter during the regular season, recording 77 along with 28 goals and 49 assists. He's only found the back of the net three times this postseason but the 80-1 number for O'Reilly to win the Conn Smythe is too long not to take a shot on with a player who's currently second on the Blues with 14 playoff points.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
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Stanley Cup Final by the numbers: Bruins hold edge in most categories
The Stanley Cup isn't won on paper, but the Boston Bruins have been better than the St. Louis Blues statistically in this postseason.
Boston has been superior at both scoring and preventing goals, and the Bruins also possess the edge on both sides of the special teams battle. However, the Blues have been better at suppressing opposing shots.
Here's how the two teams are faring in the key conventional categories this spring:
| Category | Blues | Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 19 | 17 |
| Goals For Per Game | 3 | 3.35 |
| Goals Against Per Game | 2.53 | 1.94 |
| Power Play % | 19.4 | 34 |
| Penalty Kill % | 78 | 86.3 |
| Faceoff Win % | 49.4 | 53.3 |
| Shots For Per Game | 30.9 | 33.6 |
| Shots Against Per Game | 28.4 | 32.4 |
| Overtime Record | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Team Goals Leader | Jaden Schwartz (12) | Patrice Bergeron (8) |
| Team Points Leader | Jaden Schwartz (16) | Brad Marchand (18) |
The Bruins boast the most efficient power play among all postseason clubs this year.
Boston also mostly holds the five-on-five possession advantage this spring:
| Category | Blues | Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Corsi For % | 50.86 | 50.74 |
| Scoring Chances For % | 49.94 | 50.88 |
| High-Danger Chances For % | 46.69 | 53.57 |
| Expected Goals For % | 49.52 | 51.73 |
St. Louis' slight edge in the Corsi department isn't encouraging for the Blues because the Bruins have been better at generating scoring chances, both in general and of the high-danger variety. Boston is also posting a stronger expected goals rate.
Elsewhere, the goaltending matchup should be one of the biggest storylines in the series.
Bruins netminder Tuukka Rask is producing one of the best postseason save percentages since the NHL began tracking the statistic in 1955-56.
Tuukka Rask of the @NHLBruins owns a .942 SV% entering the #StanleyCup Final, better than his total in the 2013 postseason which was tied for the 5th-highest SV% in a playoff year (min. 15 GP).
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) May 26, 2019
More #NHLStats: https://t.co/2idb3mWPiF pic.twitter.com/6w9uUYy5Cd
Rask can also become the first Finnish goalie and fifth Finnish player to win the Stanley Cup multiple times.
Meanwhile, Jordan Binnington's 12 wins coming into the series are the most ever by a Blues netminder in a single postseason. He's one of only seven rookie goalies in NHL history to post 12-plus wins during a playoff run.
But the Bruins still hold the clear edge in goal, and a deeper dive into the analytics shows how significant the gap has been this spring.
| Category | Binnington | Rask |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Saved Above Average | 1.02 | 7.66 |
| High-Danger Goals Saved Above Average | -2.61 | 6.13 |
| High-Danger Save Percentage | .824 | .918 |
Rask leads the league in GSAA by a wide margin during the playoffs, and he's also posted the best HDGSAA among all postseason goaltenders this year.
High-danger save percentage: Percentage of high-danger shots against that were saves.
Goals saved above average: The difference between the goalie's Goals Against and a Goals Against with the same Shots Against and the average save percentage.
High-danger goals saved above average: The difference between the goalie's high-danger Goals Against and a high-danger Goals Against with the same high-danger Shots Against and the average high-danger save percentage
(Analytics courtesy: Natural Stat Trick)
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Chara back in Bruins lineup for Game 1 of Stanley Cup Final
Boston Bruins captain Zdeno Chara will play in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Monday after being held out of Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final with an undisclosed injury, the team announced.
More to come.
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Stanley Cup Final roundtable: Playoff paths, key matchups, series X-factors
Over the weekend, theScore's John Matisz tapped two hockey writers - one in Boston, another in St. Louis - to help preview the Stanley Cup Final. Below is an email thread between Matisz, who acts as the moderator, Boston Sports Journal's Conor Ryan, and Dan Buffa of St. Louis Game Time. (Note: The following roundtable discussion has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.)
Matisz: If you think back to the end of the regular season and compare the local vibe then to now, with the Cup Final about to begin, what's the confidence level in the home team? Has it changed, stayed the same?
Ryan: For as many titles as Boston has scooped up over the last two decades, Bruins fans can still be a rather pessimistic lot, taking a bit of a 'Murphy's Law' approach when it comes to charting out the odds for a Cup at the outset of spring.
The local vibe has been very positive for this team, especially thanks to that 25-6-5 run Boston went on from the Winter Classic all the way to the middle of March, but there was plenty of pessimism about Boston's chances of a deep run given the looming issue of Tampa Bay at the top of the bracket. As soon as the Lightning and the Capitals (with Bruins killer Braden Holtby) were bounced in the first round, things did become MUCH more positive around town.
It's been an interesting road for Boston, but the team is making the most of the opportunity. And the fans are clearly responding, given they sold out TD Garden for an intrasquad scrimmage last week.

Buffa: Around St. Louis, imagine a huge party after a proposed funeral. It's a classic rise-fall-rise storyline.
This past fall, the Blues were projected to go deep into the playoffs with the addition of Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Bozak, and Pat Maroon. Hopes were high, but games weren't won. Mike Yeo was fired, and a guy named Craig Berube - whom few knew of - was put into his place. Jake Allen had another episode in net, Maroon got off to a terrible start, and Vladimir Tarasenko even ghosted the Blues for a few weeks. The city was talking about pre-ordering Jack Hughes for Christmas, and the team was literally in the cellar around New Year's. Most of the fanbase, outside of what they said on Twitter, wrote this team off as a bad joke.
And then the winning streak happened. Jordan Binnington happened. Berube Hockey became infused with the team's mantra and their love for the song "Gloria." The fans were leaving the house, but got pulled back in for a song, and they never left. They've been glued to their seats ever since and are truly believing in this team.
Matisz: Speaking of believing, both clubs are set between the pipes. Rask's been Boston's best player this postseason, and Binnington’s played a starring role in St. Louis' incredible ascension. Who has the goaltending advantage?
Buffa: While Binnington has been great, I have to give Rask the edge here. This is a close battle because Binnington has passed every test that the playoffs have thrown in front of him, but when it comes to the Final, it's a whole new world.
Rask has been lights-out this postseason, and he has his name etched on the Cup. He's like Ben Bishop - who gave the Blues all they could handle - but better, and a monstrous step up from Martin Jones, who rolled over for the Blues in the Western Conference Final.

Ryan: It's definitely going to be fascinating matchup in net - especially when you factor in the extended break for both teams leading up to Game 1. Binnington has been fantastic in net, his play carrying over from the regular season. He's the sixth netminder in NHL history to win at least 12 playoff games in a rookie campaign, while boasting a .914 save percentage and a shutout.
If the Blues are going to topple the Bruins, they’re going to need Binnington to steal a couple of games, and he currently has the moxie to do it. But, even at Binnington’s best, Rask still might be even better. The case could be made that this is the best stretch Rask has played since first donning a black and gold sweater 12 years ago. He leads all playoff goalies with a .942 save percentage and a 1.84 goals against average, while posting a pair of shutouts in clinching victories over both Columbus and Carolina.
Where Rask holds a clear edge over Binnington is when it comes to negating prime scoring chances, as he's posted a high-danger save percentage of .918 - tops among all playoff goalies with at least 10 games played. In a series that will likely feature multiple low-scoring games, a timely save or two might be the difference. So far, Rask has answered the call in that regard for Boston.

Matisz: Stylistically, there are similarities between Boston and St. Louis - the relentless forechecks, the ability to limit scoring chances against, the scoring punch throughout the lineup. Which matchups will you be monitoring closely?
Ryan: Two matchups that I'll be keeping tabs on are the battles for positioning in the slot, as well as Patrice Bergeron vs. Ryan O'Reilly. Throughout the postseason, Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy has harped on the need for Boston to get inside against the opposing D corps and generate quality looks down low. He's noted before that the failure to do so against guys like Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh was the main reason why Boston came up short against Tampa last spring, with the Lightning holding a 38-25 lead in 5v5 high-danger scoring chances during that five-game series.
The club has really responded this spring, holding a 150-130 edge in high-danger chances in the 2019 playoffs. With goals surrendered by Binnington this postseason coming from an average of 19 feet away from the net, Boston is going to have to fight inside and get those quality looks down low - though it's easier said than done against a big Blues' D corps. This could be a key series for a player like Jake DeBrusk, who has the speed to get inside in a hurry against bigger bodies, and he's more than wiling to scrap down low.
It wouldn't come as much of a surprise if Bergeron and Boston's top line primarily matches up against Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn, and Tarasenko. However, I think the main matchup storyline is which of Bergeron and O'Reilly blinks first when it comes to locking down the opposition. In more than 86 minutes of 5v5 TOI in which O'Reilly, David Perron, and Sammy Blais have rolled out this postseason, the Blues have outscored the competition, 5-0.
As for Bergeron, he's excelled at shutting down the opposition's top scoring option all playoffs long, with the latest target being Carolina's Sebastian Aho. In 15:30 of 5v5 TOI in which Bergeron was on the ice at the same time as Aho during the Eastern Conference Final, the Hurricanes managed to generate only two shot attempts. Zero shots on goal. Crazy stuff.

Buffa: There's a few things I'm looking at. First, the net-front presence of the Blues. Can they overcome Zdeno Chara and the mighty Bruins' defense? Specifically, a guy like Maroon, who is so effective in front of the net and can get inside the heads of the goaltender and defensemen by using his body and soft hands to redirect shots. Same thing for the Blues and big-bodied blueliner Colton Parayko. If he can limit the chances the Bruins generate in front, the series could tilt in St. Louis' direction. Parayko has been key in swiping away scoring opportunities against the Jets, Stars, and Sharks.
Second, the face-off battle. Can O'Reilly get his dot efficiency back for this series? During the regular season, he was a 60 percent guy and was reliable in dictating the action, helping his team set up and generate scoring opportunities. In the playoffs, he's been nowhere near 60 percent. The Bruins will have Bergeron, David Krejci, and Charlie Coyle on the dot battling for possession.
The third thing has to be special teams. Boston has a clear advantage here. The Bruins have a fantastic power play and it has helped them dominate. Boston's 34 percent on the PP nearly doubles the Blues' 19 percent. If Brad Marchand works his magic, the Blues will take penalties and Boston will win those games. Penalty killing has also favored Boston, which holds an 86 percent kill rate over the Blues' 78 percent. During the playoffs, St. Louis' PP has either been missing altogether or solid. It'll have to be efficient against the Bruins.

Fourth, I'm looking at Tarasenko. He hasn't truly gone off yet this spring. He's scored goals and had big moments, but has taken off large parts of 5v5 action. Can he break through and dominate a couple of these games? People forget it was his resurgence in January and February that helped the Blues launch into their streak. When he's on, the team hits another level. He makes everyone else more lethal when he's putting the puck where he wants, moving his feet, and crashing around. If he waits on the dot like a guy waiting for his Uber, the Blues are in trouble. He has to hit another gear.
Boston is big, pushes people around, and generally has its way. The Bruins have ruled like an army of steamrollers during the regular season and playoffs. In a way, they are the Jets with superpowers. St. Louis, though, has pushed back against every unstoppable force so far this postseason, finding new contributors along the way. If the Blues can improve on face-offs, win some battles in front of the net, and run an efficient power play without falling for Boston's traps in drawing penalties, this could be a very entertaining series.
Matisz: Finish this sentence, Conor - the Bruins win if...
Ryan: The Bruins win if they are able to get inside against the Blues' big D corps and are able to make Binnington work down low with high-danger attempts and second-chance scoring bids. Also, Rask needs to shake off any rust that might have come with a 10-day break between games.
Matisz: Same to you, Dan - the Blues win if...
Buffa: The Blues win if Binnington outplays Rask. When it comes down to it, Binnington was the reason San Jose got frustrated and fell apart. He stopped shots, controlled action, and dictated pace. He held his own with Bishop in Round 2, but if he can do it again in the Final and best Rask, the series will tilt in the Blues' favor. If the Bruins come out and drop a barrage of goals on Binnington, the confidence will disappear. If the rookie stands tall, it will propel the Blues. On this final stage, a sharp goaltender means everything to a team.

Matisz: Prediction time. Who wins the Cup and in how many games?
Ryan: Bruins in 6 after six hard-fought, low-scoring bouts. David Backes buries the game winner at Enterprise Center.
Buffa: Man, I hate predictions. One day, I thought Boston in 7. A couple of days later, I convinced myself it was Blues in 7. These are two tough teams with some serious resolve. An unstoppable force against an immovable object. So close. At the end of the day, I am going with Bruins in 7. The Blues will push them to the brink, but in the end, the extra polish and skill of the Bruins will make a difference. Honesty is a double-edged sword for a sportswriter but a necessary travel companion.
Matisz: I picked Bruins in 7 for theScore's Staff Predictions post. I'll stick to it. Thanks for doing this, guys. Enjoy the series!
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NHL Rumor Mill – May 27, 2019
NHL Morning Coffee Headlines – May 27, 2019
Huskies defeat host Mooseheads to capture 1st Memorial Cup title
The Rouyn-Noranda Huskies scored four unanswered goals, rallying to beat the host Halifax Mooseheads 4-2 in the championship final to claim the Memorial Cup for the first time on Sunday night.
Felix Bibeau, Joel Teasdale, Peter Abbandonato, and Vincent Marleau tallied for the Huskies.
Starting the third period on 🔥
— CanadianHockeyLeague (@CHLHockey) May 27, 2019
Abbandonato and Marleau both light the lamp early in the third period to put @QMJHL’s @HuskiesRn ahead 4-2 in the #MemorialCup Final 🎥 pic.twitter.com/HYjWUefHmx
Teasdale, a Montreal Canadiens prospect, was named tournament MVP.
Halifax's Samuel Asselin opened the scoring in the final minute of the first period, and Raphael Lavoie added another goal for the Mooseheads early in the second frame. However, after that Halifax wasn't able to respond to the Huskies.
Rouyn-Noranda also reached the final of the 2016 tournament, but the team lost that championship game to the London Knights.
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Marchand says he’d put cereal, baby, ‘a lot of alcohol’ in Stanley Cup
Brad Marchand has made some interesting plans for his day with the Stanley Cup if the Boston Bruins win another championship.
The forward listed two items and a baby when asked what he'd put in the trophy if his team wins it for the second time in eight years.
What three things would #Bruins winger Brad Marchand @Bmarch63 put in the #StanleyCup if they won?
— Raul Martinez (@RaulNBCBoston) May 26, 2019
"Cinnamon Toast Crunch, a baby and a lot of alcohol." pic.twitter.com/HcR8KOsVxu
The Bruins spent four hours at a nightclub following their 2011 championship-clinching victory, racking up a tab costing more than $150,000, including a $100,000 bottle of champagne.
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Finland upsets Canada to win gold at World Championship for 3rd time
Finland upset Canada by a final score of 3-1 on Sunday to win gold at the 2019 IIHF World Championship.
It's the third time the Finns have won the event, and first since 2011.
More to come.
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