When is an eighth seed its most sinister?
Is it in the form of a grossly underachieving title contender that failed to realize its lofty expectations, or is it the dark horse that catches fire at the precise time and enters the tournament with little to lose?
What if it's both?
The Tampa Bay Lightning, who decided to cut their losses at the trade deadline rather than double down on an ostensibly torpedoed season within their championship window, are one of the NHL's hottest teams, riding a 12-2-3 stretch over the past five-plus weeks. Though they remain on the outside of the postseason bracket, it's merely by virtue of ROW in the wild-card chase.
And don't forget the division. The Lightning are three points behind the Boston Bruins for the final fixed spot in the Atlantic.
With both avenues still in play, Tampa's chances of making the postseason improved to a ball-parked 42.1 percent after its overtime win over the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday night. Those odds hovered at around six percent at the beginning of February.
That it's been improbable would sell this run short - the Lightning's winning ways are bordering on defiant.
On top of driving the stake carrying the white flag into the ground with the trades of Ben Bishop, Brian Boyle, and Valterri Filppula - deals designed to safeguard from expansion and another upcoming salary cap crunch - the Bolts have been ravaged by injury.
As a result, and out of necessity, players like Brayden Point - an unhyped rookie centering the top line for one of the most talent-rich teams in the NHL - have admirably filled the gaps. Point scored three of the Lightning's five goals in consecutive one-goal wins over the last 48 hours.
This patchwork continues to hold up.
"We've really got something going on right now," Victor Hedman told Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, shortly after scoring Tuesday's overtime winner. "It's really been fun to be part of. Somehow, we just keep finding ways to win."
The chance Hedman hints at has obviously been kind to the Lightning; suffering two regulation losses in 17 outings is next to impossible without serendipitous elements. But with the breaks now falling in their favor after finding the opposite bin for much of the year, it's hard to argue that Jon Cooper's club doesn't deserve them.
Since embarking on this run, the Lightning have accounted for the second highest total of attempted shots from game to game. But despite a sizable uptick in events share, they don't owe their success to a corresponding inflated scoring rate over the last five-plus weeks.
Their total scoring falls below the league average, and their 2.08 GF60 on 7.02 percent shooting at even strength lands closer to the NHL's lower third.
This is no wild, unsustainable scoring wave. Instead, it's been the work of newly minted No. 1 netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy driving the data to suggest the Lightning are finally receiving a favorable shake of things.
Vasilevskiy has a plus-.960 save percentage at 5-on-5, allowing 10 goals in 10 games under the condition, and against 251 shots. Performing at an elite level in a system controlling shot attempts far more effectively, the 22-year-old Vasilevskiy is primarily responsible for the Lightning allowing a league-low 1.26 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
This sort of dominance can level any playing field. It's what upsets are made of.
In many respects, the Lightning are the last team that a high seed wants to meet in the opening round. They're fast, lethal on the counter, experienced in spring, seem to thrive through pits of adversity, and Steven Stamkos' impending return isn't the only evidence to suggest they will soon score at a more effective rate.
It's tough to imagine the path through the Metropolitan Division being more perilous than it is already. But if the Lightning capture the eighth seed and cross over, that will unquestionably be the case.
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