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Here are the fantasy ramifications of free-agent G Ben Bishop signing with the Dallas Stars:
Ben Bishop contract details: $7 M, $6.5 M, $5.5 M, $3.5 M, $3.5 M, $3.5 M; and NMC throughout, modified NTC last 3 years
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) May 12, 2017
With Bishop under contract, the Stars have $15.3 million locked up in three goaltenders for the 2017-18 season. Kari Lehtonen ($5.9 million) and Antti Niemi ($4.5 million) remain under contract for the next year. One or both are expected to be traded or bought out, as 30-year-old Ben Bishop is in charge of the team's crease for the foreseeable future.
Addressing the status quo
Bishop won't need to do much to improve on the goaltending the Stars have received over the past few seasons. Here's how Niemi and Lehtonen have stacked up since forming as a duo for the start of the 2015-16 season:
| NAME | SV% | GAA | RECORD | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niemi | .900 | 2.92 | 37-25-11 | 3 |
| Lehtonen | .904 | 2.82 | 47-35-9 | 5 |
Lehtonen started 102 games to Niemi's 85 in the two years.
Prior to the 2016-17 season, Bishop had made at least 60 starts in three consecutive seasons with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Here's a look at the cumulative numbers from those years and his injury-ravaged 2016-17 season split between the Lightning and Los Angeles Kings:
| YR | GP | SV% | GAA | RECORD | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-16 | 186 | .922 | 2.20 | 112-48-16 | 15 |
| 2016-17 | 39 | .910 | 2.54 | 18-15-5 | 1 |
While Bishop was still enjoying a modicum of success with the Lightning this past season, his upcoming free agency, age, diminishing performance and the emergence of G Andrei Vasilevskiy rendered him expendable. He served mostly as a backup to G Jonathan Quick in LA, and he lost all fantasy relevance with the trade.
Everything went wrong for the Stars in 2016-17, as they finished the year with just 79 points, a year after winning the Western Conference with 109 points in the regular season. Fantasy owners are rightfully attracted to starting goaltenders from good teams, but Bishop may not be much more alluring than his predecessors.
(Photo courtesy Action Images)
Too little too late
While the recent samples have strongly favored Bishop over both Niemi and Lehtonen, a little deeper look at the past two seasons for each goaltender shows much less separation (chart shows low-, medium- and high-difficulty save percentages at 5v5):
| NAME | LD% | MD% | HD% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lehtonen | 97.07 | 92.85 | 81.19 |
| Bishop | 98.46 | 91.10 | 82.25 |
| Niemi | 97.68 | 91.68 | 80.25 |
Lehtonen led the way with 102 games played, Bishop played 100 and Niemi played 85. Lehtonen faced 2,119 total shots, Bishop 2,090 and Niemi 1,639.
Lehtonen allowed significantly more rebound shots than Bishop, despite the two playing a similar amount of games and seeing a similar amount of original shots. The closer average shot distance faced by Lehtonen is a factor of team defense and will be something working against Bishop in his first year with the Stars.
At age 30, Bishop is clearly on the decline, with his 6-foot-7 frame likely to face quicker deterioration as a goalie.
Dallas' offense should be capable of leading Bishop to roughly 40 wins if he again sees 60 starts, and he should be able to make his routine 4-5 shutouts. His own decline and the weaker team defense in front of him will lead to a save percentage and goals against average well below his career norms.
Owners should temper expectations for Bishop. He belongs at the back end of the No. 1 fantasy goalies,
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