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As the NHL prepares for its 24-team postseason, sportsbooks are releasing more and more odds for the uniquely formatted event.
After breaking down odds for each of the highly anticipated play-in series, let's dive into the four-team battles for each conference's top seed. We begin with the Eastern Conference:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Boston Bruins | +130 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +250 |
| Washington Capitals | +500 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +500 |
The format
The teams that ranked first through fourth in their conference at the end of the abbreviated regular season will play each other in a round-robin tournament to determine seeding in the 16-team playoff bracket. The clubs will all play each other once at a neutral venue, with the overall winner claiming the conference's top playoff seed.
Boston Bruins (+130)
This format can't be pleasing to Bruce Cassidy and the Bruins, who were eight points ahead of the Lightning, 10 points above the Capitals, and 11 points up on the Flyers when the league halted play. Their impressive 70-game performance could now be undone in the span of three contests. It might feel a cruel fate for Boston, but does it really matter?
The top seed won't get home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs, which are expected to take place at neutral venues. The top-ranked team will get some advantages, such as last change, but the usual benefits are significantly mitigated. The top four teams' respective opponents will also be determined by the results of the play-in series, so the first seed isn't even guaranteed the easiest draw.
Given all of those factors - not to mention the lengthy layoff - expect these round-robin games to lack intensity; they'll be glorified exhibition contests, which certainly doesn't play to the strengths of a Bruins team that prefers an in-your-face approach. In a three-game sample following roughly five months of inaction, I can't possibly justify taking the Bruins at such a short price.
Tampa Bay Lightning (+250)
After recovering from a miserable start to the season, the Lightning were on a warpath over the second half of the campaign, climbing their way up the conference standings. They were even pushing the Bruins for the top seed, though they would have had a tough time closing the distance with just 12 games remaining.
This is a second chance for the Bolts, who have a real point to prove after last year's humiliating playoff exit. Tampa's versatile roster can adapt to any style of hockey, which should be a boon in an unfamiliar round-robin format.
The Lightning entered the pause ranked first in the NHL in five-on-five goals and seventh in the league in hits per game - ahead of the Bruins. They also boasted a top-five power play, and they'll return to the ice armed with one of the world's best goaltenders in Andrei Vasilevskiy. In a format rife with uncertainty, the Lightning might be the safest bet to claim the Eastern Conference's top seed.
Washington Capitals (+500)
The Capitals could be the biggest beneficiaries of low-intensity hockey, though that isn't to say they're incapable of playing a physical game. Should these round-robin games lack intensity, penalties should be unusually infrequent. That would play perfectly into the hands of a Capitals team that had the least efficient power play among these four clubs in 2019-20 and owned a middle-of-the-pack penalty kill.
Fewer man advantages would also be another reason to fade the Bruins, who had the NHL's third-best penalty kill and second-best power play this season, yet were 18th league-wide in five-on-five goals. I'd feel much better taking the Capitals at 5-1.
Philadelphia Flyers (+500)
No team was hotter than the Flyers when the NHL announced its shutdown. It will be interesting to see how the long layoff impacts Philadelphia's momentum, but the team has the firepower and the goaltending to match any of these clubs in a brief round-robin affair. Carter Hart is the youngest of the four starting goalies and could thus be the netminder least impacted by the break. If the 21-year-old can be the quickest to find his rhythm between the pipes, the Flyers are a terrific value bet to claim the top seed.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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