With just four games scheduled for Wednesday night's slate, there isn't a ton of value on the board.
Thus, we're going to use both sides and props for the day's best bets. Let's get right to it.
Capitals (-175) @ Flyers (+150)
The Washington Capitals didn't put forth their best effort last time out, but that didn't stop them from getting yet another positive result.
They have posted a 13-2-2 record since early December and they've been full value for it, slotting third across all situations with an expected goals share well above 55%.
What the Capitals have done is nothing short of remarkable considering the injuries they've faced. Key players like John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, and Tom Wilson, among others, have all missed an abundance of time.
Although the former remains out, the three forwards very recently returned to the lineup. Having those guys back gives the Capitals three lines that can score and makes them extremely difficult to match up against.
I don't think the Philadelphia Flyers are well-equipped to slow them down. They don't have much defensive talent on paper and rank near the bottom of the league in terms of preventing shots and expected goals at five-on-five.
The Flyers also give up a lot of opportunities on the penalty kill, which is not ideal against Alexander Ovechkin and Co.
Carter Hart is likely going to be tested early and often in this game, something that finally seems to be catching up to him. He was one of the best goaltenders in the league over the first couple months of the season but his play has really dipped of late.
Hart owns an .893 save percentage over the past month and has conceded five more goals than expected during that stretch.
Bet: Capitals in regulation (-115)
Alex Ovechkin over 4.5 shots (+105)
While I prefer to back Ovechkin on home ice - his floor and ceiling are higher in Washington - the Great Eight is building-proof. In fact, no player has recorded more shot attempts or shots on goal on the road this season than Ovechkin.
But what I really like is this matchup. The Flyers are prone to giving up shots in bulk and, as alluded to above, I expect the Capitals to control the run of play and generate more than their fair share in this game.
Even with some key players returning, Ovechkin remains priority No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 for Washington when it comes to shooting the puck. The superstar winger leads the Capitals in attempts - by nearly 30 - over the last 10 games.
Ovechkin has seen John Tortorella's Flyers twice this season, generating nine and 14 attempts in those games. With that kind of volume, I'm happy to take my chances on Ovechkin coming through at plus money.
Darnell Nurse over 2.5 (-130)
The Anaheim Ducks have been a constant target for shot props all season and there is no reason to get away from that.
Over the last 10 games, they're a distant 32nd in shot attempts allowed per 60 while at even strength and killing penalties. They simply can't stop bleeding shots in any game state.
They have also conceded more shots to defensemen than any other team - yes, even the Blue Jackets - during that stretch.
That should be music to the ears of Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse, who enters play having gone over his shot total in eight of the last 10 games.
With a mouthwatering matchup and Nurse expected to log around 24 minutes of ice time, he should be able to get the job done once again in Anaheim.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.